Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1085

#1 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/31/2013 9:48:44 AM | message detail
DogFAQs

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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POKEFEAR
#2 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 9:50:32 AM | message detail
#3 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:08:18 AM | message detail
Imagine if that dog was from a zelda game how much votes he would get!
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#4 | pjbasis | Posted 7/31/2013 10:08:48 AM | message detail
Zidane and Ridley the NN wreckers


Cloud Strife - 6.39¢
Senator Steven Armstrong - 1.00¢
Prinny - 2.29¢

Handsome Jack - 1.00¢
Frog - 2.07¢
Viewtiful Joe - 1.06¢

Sly Cooper - 2.39¢
Francis York Morgan - 1.00¢
Lugia - 4.97¢

Dante - 4.19¢
Laharl - 1.79¢
Raz - 1.00¢

Squirtle - 4.48¢
Ramza Beoulve - 2.26¢
JC Denton - 1.00¢

Spring Breeze Dancin' - 1.00¢
Zidane Tribal - 9.79¢
Ridley - 8.22¢

Yu Narukami - 1.85¢
Shadow the Hedgehog - 2.82¢
Kat - 1.00¢

Leon Kennedy - 2.47¢
Albert Wesker - 1.35¢
Oliver - 1.00¢

Gordon Freeman - 3.68¢
Hades - 1.00¢
Simon Belmont - 2.06¢
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#5 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 7/31/2013 10:09:14 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ec0rRUC4BA8
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#6 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:09:31 AM | message detail
Zidane almost at 10 Chesters!Not even Link did that!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#7 | superange128 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:10:50 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Imagine if that dog was from a zelda game how much votes he would get!


http://zeldawiki.org/Dog
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#8 | spooky96 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:11:01 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
http://i.imgur.com/kfke5ma.jpg


Holy crap that seemed legit for a moment.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#9 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/31/2013 10:11:29 AM | message detail
That update was insane. Where is the rally?
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#10 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:11:59 AM | message detail
Aww man. I had a good 500th post planned for the last thread. Just barely got beaten to it. Oh well. It got a good one anyway.
#11 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:13:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
There's one on /v/ and I think they made a new one on /b/

Maybe one going up on reddit soon

There's one guy complaining that Kerrigan is going to come back and win in the /v/ thread, so I don't think they know how this contest works

EDIT: "come back and win" meaning "beat crono"
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~Zen
#12 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:13:19 AM | message detail
Really, the worst part of this rally to me is Kerrigan could have maybe made this interesting if everything was left alone.

But now it's completely boring.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#13 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:13:22 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
That update was insane. Where is the rally?


Where else? 4chan. But it's pretty futile.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#14 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:14:50 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
There's one on /v/ and I think they made a new one on /b/

Maybe one going up on reddit soon

There's one guy complaining that Kerrigan is going to come back and win in the /v/ thread, so I don't think they know how this contest works

EDIT: "come back and win" meaning "beat crono"


Seriously? That is awesome. The fact that they're completely clueless as to how our contests work makes their meddling all the more hilarious.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#15 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:16:01 AM | message detail
Whoa, they did it quicker than I expected! Crono's lead only increased by 99 that time.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#16 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 10:16:21 AM | message detail
To be fair, to a casual observer it might make sense that Kerrigan would win because StarCraft owns all of South Korea and part of the rest of the world

I think that was partially our logic when Vincent/Kerrigan happened
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~Zen
#17 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:16:42 AM | message detail
Crono takes that update from Missile by less than 100 votes

c'mon Missile, you can shake enough votes to get at least one update right right
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#18 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 10:17:24 AM | message detail
Literally rallying against Kerrigan.

lol
#19 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/31/2013 10:17:40 AM | message detail
the /v/ thread literally says in the opening message "Crono will win anyway".
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Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#20 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:12 AM | message detail
Wow. Who would have thought that Missile was such a rallyable character? Meanwhile, Crono's probably gonna quadruple Kerrigan by the time this is done, even with it being a day match. Not bad at all.
#21 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:18:17 AM | message detail
They might also think their influence is greater than it appears because they might just see Crono's % go down and Missile's go up and think they're actually closing the gap.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#22 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:19:07 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
To be fair, to a casual observer it might make sense that Kerrigan would win because StarCraft owns all of South Korea and part of the rest of the world

I think that was partially our logic when Vincent/Kerrigan happened


Take a look at the map. South Korea is currently 75% Crono, 25% Missile, 0% Kerrigan. Of course, it's kind of the middle of the night in South Korea right now so their votes will probably pick up quite a bit later in the match.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#23 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:38 AM | message detail
You know, I'm actually more disappointed if they realize they can't beat Crono. Because rallying to beat Kerrigan is just... why.

I'm not even totally sure it was necessary!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#24 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:51 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Literally rallying against Kerrigan.

lol


Actually, Zen makes a good point. From a "logical" standpoint, most of Kerrigan's rallying power is asleep right now. Trends would suggest that she'll start making a comeback later in the match.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#25 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/31/2013 10:20:55 AM | message detail
animals more popular than black people

this website
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F*** BT
#26 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:21:37 AM | message detail
Crono strikes back

So busy keeping Kerrigan down they forgot about Crono.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 38/44 Today's Picks: Gordon Freeman and Crono
#27 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:13 AM | message detail
Missile rallying, haha. Well, Crono's pushing 78% on Kerrigan now. Let's see if he can beat Vincent's 79%.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#28 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:14 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
You know, I'm actually more disappointed if they realize they can't beat Crono. Because rallying to beat Kerrigan is just... why.

I'm not even totally sure it was necessary!


It's probably a B8er with Crono > Missile > Kerrigan in their expert challenge who knows 4chan/reddit are stupid enough to hop on any wagon if you give a dumb enough reason.
#29 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:20 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
They might also think their influence is greater than it appears because they might just see Crono's % go down and Missile's go up and think they're actually closing the gap.


Crono's percentage went up on that last update, although Missile's went up by more. It was +.12% Crono, +.16% Missile, -.28% Kerrigan.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#30 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:53 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
You know, I'm actually more disappointed if they realize they can't beat Crono.


The initial OP does not a consensus make. I'm sure a lot of people took that assertion as a challenge to be overcome.
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#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:22:55 AM | message detail
Well, once people start realizing Missile has no chance to win the match at all, the rally will die off. Nobody who doesn't have an Expert bracket has any reason to care about him finishing ahead of Kerrigan.
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"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#32 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/31/2013 10:23:08 AM | message detail
JUST WAIT UNTIL THE SOUTH KOREANS WAKE UP
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 40/45 pts
NP: Crono > Sarah Kerrigan > Missle
#33 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:23:35 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
xp1337 posted...
You know, I'm actually more disappointed if they realize they can't beat Crono.


The initial OP does not a consensus make. I'm sure a lot of people took that assertion as a challenge to be overcome.


You're right. That does seem like the type of mentality that would work there.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#34 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 10:24:09 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, once people start realizing Missile has no chance to win the match at all, the rally will die off. Nobody who doesn't have an Expert bracket has any reason to care about him finishing ahead of Kerrigan.


I'm not in the Expert and I care so much
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#35 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:24:11 AM | message detail
I wonder how would Missile do without ENDING
Probably about the same as most Missile votes are because of The Dog Factor
#36 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:09 AM | message detail
What EXACTLY is Missile?I didn't know anything and thought it would be an object like Cube or L-Block.But I find it is a dog that talks?
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#37 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:19 AM | message detail
Well, Board 8 in general has a reason to care because we care too much about the contests in general, but still, you know what I mean!
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#38 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:21 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, once people start realizing Missile has no chance to win the match at all, the rally will die off. Nobody who doesn't have an Expert bracket has any reason to care about him finishing ahead of Kerrigan.

Yeah, but the damage has been done, IMO. Even if it stopped right now, I don't really like Kerrigan's chances to recover.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#39 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/31/2013 10:25:49 AM | message detail
Crono's lead is getting bigger and bigger each update. I'd be really surprised to see them turn this around.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#40 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/31/2013 10:26:08 AM | message detail
God that Missile match pic is so fantastic. I've never even heard of him before this contest but I had to vote for him.
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#41 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:26:18 AM | message detail
Even the update where Crono only took it by 99 votes was more of Crono having a weak update than Missile having a strong one. He still hasn't had a 100-vote update outside of start-freeze; that update just happened to be the first one where Crono was under 200.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#42 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 7/31/2013 10:26:37 AM | message detail
I HATE YOU MISSILE! STOP RUINING MY LIFE! *drinks another beer*
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#43 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:26:49 AM | message detail
Is someone rallying Kerrigan now? That was an interesting spike in vote intake. We'll have to see if it lasts more than 1 update though.
#44 | xp1337 | Posted 7/31/2013 10:26:55 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Crono's lead is getting bigger and bigger each update. I'd be really surprised to see them turn this around.

Crono was never in danger. Ever.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#45 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:27:32 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Crono's lead is getting bigger and bigger each update. I'd be really surprised to see them turn this around.


It might already be dying out. Kerrigan actually managed a 1-vote cut on Missile this last update.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#46 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:28:41 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
Crono's lead is getting bigger and bigger each update. I'd be really surprised to see them turn this around.


It might already be dying out. Kerrigan actually managed a 1-vote cut on Missile this last update.


The cut was a combination of Kerrigan spiking and Missile dying off.
#47 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:28:43 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Is someone rallying Kerrigan now? That was an interesting spike in vote intake. We'll have to see if it lasts more than 1 update though.


It wasn't really a huge spike in vote intake. Missile just had a severe drop.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#48 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:04 AM | message detail
1 vote cut
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POKEFEAR
#49 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:38 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Is someone rallying Kerrigan now? That was an interesting spike in vote intake. We'll have to see if it lasts more than 1 update though.


It wasn't really a huge spike in vote intake. Missile just had a severe drop.


It was 20% than any update in the previous 20 minutes.
#50 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/31/2013 10:29:47 AM | message detail
It wasn't really a spike. It was a 64-vote update; Kerrigan had one of those just four updates earlier.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.