Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1084

#201 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/30/2013 11:33:05 PM | message detail
GoldSlime35 posted...
Maybe Isaac from Golden Sun as the fodder line? Crash/Spyro could also probably work.

I think Big Daddy would be a good tier divider in the middle since he doesn't get SFFed by the large numbers of Nintendo/Square characters.


Personally, I think Isaac from Golden Sun would beat Crash/Spyro in a match, so I wouldn't use Isaac as the fodder line. Crash or Spyro would be a better fodder line. Although since Crash is stronger than Spyro, I'd probably lean towards using Spyro as the fodder line.
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#202 | creativename | Posted 7/30/2013 11:38:57 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
It's from Ngamer's site

thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Link

I have no idea whose value it is using though

There's some serious Jimmy Carter-era like inflation issues going on here!

i think we can pretty much all agree Link ain't what he used to be. Just how much weaker is speculative.
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#203 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/30/2013 11:44:51 PM | message detail
Since someone mentioned the x-stats on Ngamer's site, I suggest that we update "lol x-stats" to include Game of the Decade and Rivalry Rumble. I know the Rivalry Rumble was a terrible contest, but so was the Villains Contest and the Series Contest and both Villains and Series are included in Ngamer's "lol x-stats" simulator.

Incorporating Game of the Decade and Rivalry Rumble into "lol x-stats" will require a lot of technical knowledge to convert the x-stats for both contest into universal values based off of Base Link.
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#204 | creativename | Posted 7/30/2013 11:47:13 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Personally, I think Isaac from Golden Sun would beat Crash/Spyro in a match, so I wouldn't use Isaac as the fodder line. Crash or Spyro would be a better fodder line. Although since Crash is stronger than Spyro, I'd probably lean towards using Spyro as the fodder line.

Considering the fact that the huge majority of this bracket is fodder, we have to differentiate between levels of fodder now much more than we used to...in a 64 entrant bracket, maybe 25-35 entrants would be fodder (under 20% on winner) depending on how well made the bracket was.

Like 75+% of this bracket is fodder. Probably more than 80%. Round 1 has mostly been trying to pick which one is the least garbage out of a pile of trash.

So it's not even so much the fodder line, but intra-fodder rankings we have to work with here.
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#205 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/30/2013 11:51:27 PM | message detail
Leon's pretty level-headed, let's have him pick the different tier dividers and fodder lines

we're gonna argue 'til the duck hunt dogs come home if we don't just let someone do it

although I guess it's more entertaining than this match
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#206 | pjbasis | Posted 7/30/2013 11:58:36 PM | message detail
We can make new tiers for this contest because there are so many weaker characters.
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#207 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/31/2013 12:00:44 AM | message detail
Chester gets a tier all to himself
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#208 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 12:01:43 AM | message detail
At this point, there are probably more tiers among fodder than non-fodder.
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#209 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 12:04:04 AM | message detail
In fact, we could have an Ignoble Nine with fodder!

Chester
Spring Breeze Dancin'
Guybrush Threepwood
Tanner
Caim
Sandal
Jade
Commander Keen
CATS
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#210 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 12:06:45 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
So it's not even so much the fodder line, but intra-fodder rankings we have to work with here.


Coming up with a static character to represent each level of fodder is difficult since fodder is more prone to wild fluctuations in strength. Their strength is less stable from year to year compared to the strength of midcarders. Some fodder will have the potential to dramatically increase their strength just from one game alone, or over the course of several years. Nathan Drake for example was turbofodder before UC2 came out. With UC2, his strength shot through the roof, to the point where he was right around the fodder line.

For the different levels of fodder, I would propose a 3 tier system - Turbofodder, Average Fodder, and High Fodder

If 20% against Link is the minimum to be a midcarder, than I would suggest the following guidelines for the 3 fodder tiers:

17-20% against Link - High Fodder
14-17% against Link - Average Fodder
Under 14% against Link - Turbofodder

Given how difficult it would be score huge blowouts these days, I think that sounds reasonable, taking into consideration that Link gets anti-voted more heavily compared to several years ago.
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#211 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 12:10:55 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
In fact, we could have an Ignoble Nine with fodder!

Chester
Spring Breeze Dancin'
Guybrush Threepwood
Tanner
Caim
Sandal
Jade
Commander Keen
CATS

CATS might not even be bottom 50 of this bracket, that's how sad this bracket is. A lot of these characters make CATS look like a champ.
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#212 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 12:11:48 AM | message detail
I know, but CATS deserves a place among this distinguished group of gentlemen!
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#213 | pjbasis | Posted 7/31/2013 12:11:49 AM | message detail
A bottom 9 that only ever beat each other, that'd be great.

Too bad Chester would never win anything
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#214 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 12:12:26 AM | message detail
Guybrush may be very weak, but I'd still put him near the upper end of the turbofodder category.
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#215 | creativename | Posted 7/31/2013 12:14:46 AM | message detail
Chester has already won our hearts. And isn't that what really counts in the end? *wipes tear from eye*
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#216 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/31/2013 12:21:49 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
In fact, we could have an Ignoble Nine with fodder!

Chester
Spring Breeze Dancin'
Guybrush Threepwood
Tanner
Caim
Sandal
Jade
Commander Keen
CATS


Have we forgotten about Serious Sam, Mr. Driller, and Ms. Pac-Man here? I would include all 3 of those in place of CATS, Guybrush, and Jade.
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#217 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/31/2013 12:30:59 AM | message detail | (edited)
Ms. Pac-Man's never been on that tier, she'd stomp all those weaklings thoroughly. Mega Man SFFed her.

Edit: And I don't think anyone has ever acknowledged this (mostly because people still haven't even come close to realizing it), but Mega Man/Ms. Pac-Man is I'm pretty sure the first major SFF match ever.
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#218 | ToyKirby | Posted 7/31/2013 12:27:50 AM | message detail
Why did they have to pit Freeman against Belmont! Too hard to choose.

Sadface.
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#219 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 12:35:45 AM | message detail
Pretty sure I've thrown out Mega Man/Ms. Pac-Man SFF before! Not that it really matters, but yeah.

And yeah, Mr. Driller at the very least deserves inclusion in that group.
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#220 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/31/2013 12:49:56 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Pretty sure I've thrown out Mega Man/Ms. Pac-Man SFF before! Not that it really matters, but yeah.

And yeah, Mr. Driller at the very least deserves inclusion in that group.


Likewise, Serious Sam. He's still the weakest character to win a match right?
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#221 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 12:50:49 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
League of Legends fans gearing up for the Draven rally early

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/954437-league-of-legends/66860423


Bringing this back up to say nobody who's planning on hosting the rally is at it yet. This is just...I guess you could say fan hype? The current plan is to start warming the LoL community up around Division 8 or so.
#222 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/31/2013 1:12:35 AM | message detail
*sniff*

Oh FREE-MAN, youve grown up before our very eyes.




(also oh man, Cecil is gonna rock Pit hard)
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#223 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 1:14:08 AM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
*sniff*

Oh FREE-MAN, youve grown up before our very eyes.




(also oh man, Cecil is gonna rock Pit hard)


You are now considering the possibility of Cecil pulling a Kefka and losing...to Wrex.
#224 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/31/2013 1:33:57 AM | message detail | (edited)
Shepard didn't really wow me, but Garrus did ok I guess

If he does lose to wrex, Itll be because Shepard.
thats sorta a pipe dream though.
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#225 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 1:35:06 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
I think Ocelot just performed better with Cloud seeping more of Jill's casual appeal (and Midgar Zolom was there too), whereas Kratos and Heavy influenced the match in a different way. That, and I think the RE5 trailer had just dropped prior to that match, which I think was the turning point.


Also Jill stood out like crazy in that match pic.

Heck, two in three matches then had a female character overperform against three huge/muscular men (the other being Rydia against Auron, Sub-Zero, and Marcus). Never mind what Tifa did.

That being said though, is our explanation for Tifa's overperformance on Samus that ZSS wasn't very recognizable back in the day? Because Samus should have still had the pic advantage back then (though I'm a huge ZSS fan...albeit mostly for her moves in Brawl. I could care less about the sex appeal).
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#226 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/31/2013 1:39:58 AM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Shepard didn't really wow me, but Garrus did ok I guess

If he does lose to wrex, Itll be because Shepard.
thats sorta a pipe dream though.


Of course it is, doesn't make the idea any less funny though.
#227 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 1:51:18 AM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Leon | Wesker | Oliver | Votes
0:05 | 50.17% | 29.63% | 20.20% | 594
1:00 | 50.08% | 28.94% | 20.98% | 4281
2:00 | 50.61% | 27.74% | 21.65% | 3349
3:00 | 52.08% | 26.94% | 20.98% | 2903
4:00 | 50.52% | 29.64% | 19.84% | 2520
5:00 | 51.12% | 27.81% | 21.07% | 2449
6:00 | 52.45% | 26.89% | 20.66% | 2328
7:00 | 50.33% | 28.81% | 20.86% | 2138
8:00 | 52.55% | 27.63% | 19.81% | 1918
9:00 | 51.09% | 29.03% | 19.89% | 1795
10:00 | 52.11% | 27.78% | 20.11% | 1656
11:00 | 51.57% | 26.70% | 21.73% | 1528
12:00 | 51.74% | 28.09% | 20.17% | 1438

SFF match? Day match? Boring.

X-Stats:

Leon Kennedy – 50.00%
Albert Wesker – 35.40%
Oliver – 28.82%

Leon's prediction percentage was 67.26%
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#228 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 2:00:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
I never thought I'd see the day when Gordon Freeman would be destroying a poll.

I'm too lazy to do it myself, so when the match ends can someone use this match to project Tifa vs. Zelda?

EDIT: Although Gordon is actually underperforming against Simon according to the 2010 stats. Still, since we've never seen him destroy a poll this badly it's hard to be disappointed in him, at least to me.
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#229 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/31/2013 2:12:14 AM | message detail
No.
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#230 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/31/2013 3:57:50 AM | message detail
You've come a long way Gordon Freeman. From never winning to winning matches with over half of the vote.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 39/44 pts
NP: Gordon Freeman > Simon Belmont > Hades
#231 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/31/2013 5:18:47 AM | message detail
All my upset picks failed so far and in round 2 it is even worse.Ah well.Maybe next time I will do good.
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#232 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/31/2013 5:21:32 AM | message detail
Damn. Really regret having taken Pitty Pat over Cecil.
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#233 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/31/2013 6:44:30 AM | message detail
With the discussion of a Fodder Line of sorts, I'm kinda surprised you guys haven't adopted Lloyd & Kratos A. as the gatekeepers.

There were many times when filling out my bracket, I asked myself if the character in question could beat these two, 'cause if you can't even get a close match with Lloyd, you probably got no business being in further contests.

They're weak, but not garbage, and with the PS3 HD port coming next year, they'll be more relevant than your standard jRPG character.
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#234 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/31/2013 6:45:14 AM | message detail
Missile will defeat Sarah in the battle for second place.

I feel it.
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#235 | spooky96 | Posted 7/31/2013 6:51:25 AM | message detail
Crono is going to shine tonight (Indian Time Zone) I feel so good.

*Yearnings of Wind*
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#236 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/31/2013 6:56:57 AM | message detail
Match XLVI: (1) Crono vs. (18) Sarah Kerrigan vs. (27) Missile

Previous Contest

Crono – 2010
49.71% against Missingno

Sarah Kerrigan – 2007
11.06% against Samus Aran, Frog and Axel

Missile – N/A
N/A

Analysis

After an embarrassing first round loss in 2010 Crono attempts to win back hearts by trying to win this division. With LFF lurking in the second round a second round loss to another Pokemon could be in the cards. As for this round Crono should have no problem winning and his main focus is to prove that Chrono Trigger has not dropped too much since we last saw them. After seeing Frog I would say they looked okay, but we do not have much information on Joe and none on Jack.

With Starcraft II we could see a stronger Kerrigan as she was the main character in Heart of the Swarm and made an appearance in Wings of Liberty. The issue with Starcraft II, like the original Starcraft is people play the game for its multiplayer and not its single player. Still a new game is bound to help her, even if people only play the single player once before abandoning it. Rallying could be an option, but given the lack of rallying in the other contests since the 2004 games contest I do not think it will happen here.

While Missile is performing well on a board contest that is likely because the same few people keep voting for it. Ghost Trick is quite niche for GameFAQs and from what I read Missile is not the most favourite character from the game. Being a dog I feel he will avoid being the worst character in the bracket, but at the same time I do not see him performing that well.

This division is quite crazy with only a few matches that are easy to call. This is one of those matches where there is no debate on the order. I believe Crono can break 60% in this match, even with a large Starcraft II boost Kerrigan was one of the weakest returning characters. As for Missile, just like in the board contest I will predict that he will break 10%.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono > Sarah Kerrigan and Missile

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono – 61.86%, Sarah Kerrigan – 27.25%, Missile – 10.89%
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Points: 38/44 Today's Picks: Gordon Freeman and Crono
#237 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/31/2013 7:04:22 AM | message detail
I just realized that Yoshimitsu's name is going to look TERRIBLE with this Round 1 font type.

Unless Allen just keeps it as "Yoshi" in which case voters see "Yoshi" and think it's the Mario character o_0
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 39/44 pts
NP: Gordon Freeman > Simon Belmont > Hades
#238 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 7:06:47 AM | message detail
2002: Crono defeats Snake in the divisional final.
2004: Frog defeats Liquid Snake in Round 1 and loses to Solid Snake in Round 3.
2006: Crono defeats Raiden in the first two rounds, Magus loses to Big Boss in Round 2.

Soon a new chapter will be added to the story of the Chrono Trigger/MGS rivalry...who will get the clutch?
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#239 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/31/2013 7:07:46 AM | message detail
Yeah and in 2 hours the hardest division begins
With a easy match though
Of course it would be fitting if somehow Missile pulls an upset
Don't think there is going to be some sort of HOTS boost,Crono is going to blow both of them away
#240 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 7:08:53 AM | message detail
Also, nightmare scenario:

Yuna and Tifa both turn out to be weaker than expected and lose to Master Chief, who gets to round 3 as a result on the back of Xbox nostalgia (because the Xbox One debacle would make everyone reminisce on when Microsoft didn't suck), while Samus blows out all of her competition in the first two rounds and makes it looks like Other M didn't negatively affect her. Then, Auron uses Sore Thumb Factor to upset Samus in Round 3.

Likely at all?
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#241 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 7:18:40 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also, nightmare scenario:

Yuna and Tifa both turn out to be weaker than expected and lose to Master Chief, who gets to round 3 as a result on the back of Xbox nostalgia (because the Xbox One debacle would make everyone reminisce on when Microsoft didn't suck), while Samus blows out all of her competition in the first two rounds and makes it looks like Other M didn't negatively affect her. Then, Auron uses Sore Thumb Factor to upset Samus in Round 3.

Likely at all?


If Final Fantasy drops hard enough that Tifa loses to Master Chief, Auron isn't going to be strong enough to threaten Samus.
#242 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/31/2013 7:19:43 AM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
I just realized that Yoshimitsu's name is going to look TERRIBLE with this Round 1 font type.

Unless Allen just keeps it as "Yoshi" in which case voters see "Yoshi" and think it's the Mario character o_0


EVERYTHING looks terrible with that font. I don't know what Bacon was thinking with that font. So bad.
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#243 | spooky96 | Posted 7/31/2013 7:19:52 AM | message detail
If Final Fantasy drops hard enough that Tifa loses to Master Chief, Auron isn't going to be strong enough to threaten Samus.


Wait....what?
Have I missed something?
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#244 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/31/2013 7:20:21 AM | message detail
Auron would never threaten Samus anyway
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest: 39/44 pts
NP: Gordon Freeman > Simon Belmont > Hades
#245 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 7:22:31 AM | message detail
Well duh, but I'm playing along with "Auron stands out so he does way way better than he would normally".
#246 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 7:28:16 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also, nightmare scenario:

Yuna and Tifa both turn out to be weaker than expected and lose to Master Chief, who gets to round 3 as a result on the back of Xbox nostalgia (because the Xbox One debacle would make everyone reminisce on when Microsoft didn't suck), while Samus blows out all of her competition in the first two rounds and makes it looks like Other M didn't negatively affect her. Then, Auron uses Sore Thumb Factor to upset Samus in Round 3.

Likely at all?


If Final Fantasy drops hard enough that Tifa loses to Master Chief, Auron isn't going to be strong enough to threaten Samus.


Yeah, I thought of that. However, there's a possibility that FFX won't drop as hard as FFVII, especially with that HD remake right around the corner.

For some reason, Master Chief just doesn't strike me as the kind of character to lose this early while Yuna does, and furthermore I somehow get the feeling that Master Chief is going to benefit from the same kind of "nostalgia" factor that Spyro and Crash Bandicoot did - with the Xbox One debacle probably helping him more than hurting him.

Though I also feel that Nintendo being so inept now will hurt Samus and Zelda characters more than Mario and co.
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#247 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/31/2013 7:29:24 AM | message detail
For all we know Master Chief could break 40% on Samus if he gets there.
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#248 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/31/2013 7:33:32 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all we know Master Chief could break 40% on Samus if he gets there.


It's more likely that Kerrigan gets a rally big enough to win next match.
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#249 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/31/2013 7:49:31 AM | message detail
Zylothewolf posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
For all we know Master Chief could break 40% on Samus if he gets there.


It's more likely that Kerrigan gets a rally big enough to win next match.


The only way Kerrigan gets a rally that big is if Missingno replaces her right before the voting begins.

Well, it is the sixth division...
#250 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/31/2013 7:51:39 AM | message detail
Man, Hades is a complete bomb.