Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1084

#151 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:38:25 PM | message detail
Generally speaking...

Below 20% on Base Link = Fodder
20-25% on BL = Low midcard
25-30% on BL = Midcard
30%+ on BL = High midcard/near elite

Keep in mind that Base Link is stronger than 2010 Link.
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#152 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:39:47 PM | message detail
And yeah, I agree that Pac-Man is the litmus test for fodder. If you can't beat him, you're not worth that much. You're on watch, Drake!

And before someone says, "What about Ocelot?" What about him? He's never been that good! He probably beats Pac-Man now anyway.
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#153 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:41:22 PM | message detail
Ocelot is as screwy as Liquid. He beat Jill pre-MGS4 and then lost to her post-MGS4. Whether he performs like fodder or midcard depends on what Ocelot you're getting that day.
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#154 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:41:51 PM | message detail
And it'd probably be a good idea to have a "gatekeeper" for each level. Like, "if you can beat this guy, you're in this group." It'd be a lot easier than listing everyone who falls into a particular group.
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#155 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/30/2013 10:42:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...

But the argument here is explicitly that Falcon overperformed significantly on Cloud - and that Samus didn't (well, she did ever so slightly because it was a 12 hour match, but it's accounted for and not nearly as important as Falcon/Ridley posting inflated numbers).


All right, fair enough. We'll see in Alucard's next match how he does against the likes of Snake and Bayonetta.

And I still think getting 30% against Cloud is indicative of decent strength. I just think Ridley overperformed like crazy against Cloud in their 2010 match-up.
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#156 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:43:12 PM | message detail
Dunno about anyone else, but Ryu (SF) has always been my gatekeeper for the near-elites.
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#157 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:43:34 PM | message detail
Oh, if you can get 30% against Cloud, you're pretty decent nowadays.
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#158 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:44:17 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Dunno about anyone else, but Ryu (SF) has always been my gatekeeper for the near-elites.


Ryu or Dante.

Sub-Zero or Jill would probably be a good gatekeeper for middle of the pack. They're both relatively equal based on their matches against Samus.
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#159 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/30/2013 10:44:24 PM | message detail
I think Ocelot just performed better with Cloud seeping more of Jill's casual appeal (and Midgar Zolom was there too), whereas Kratos and Heavy influenced the match in a different way. That, and I think the RE5 trailer had just dropped prior to that match, which I think was the turning point.
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#160 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:45:43 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
I think Ocelot just performed better with Cloud seeping more of Jill's casual appeal (and Midgar Zolom was there too), whereas Kratos and Heavy influenced the match in a different way. That, and I think the RE5 trailer had just dropped prior to that match, which I think was the turning point.


There's a lot of factors, but... Ocelot just had the most important game of his career dropped. He shouldn't have lost.
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#161 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/30/2013 10:45:57 PM | message detail
A Pac-Man fodder line?? That sounds.......so right.....
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#162 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:48:39 PM | message detail
So how many non-Noble Niners would we take to beat Ryu?

Squall
Tifa
Auron
Vincent
Bowser
Luigi
Kirby
Ganondorf
Charizard
Yoshi
Zelda?
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#163 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/30/2013 10:49:42 PM | message detail
Missingno?
#164 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:49:43 PM | message detail
Pac's just frustrating as hell to use as a fodder line because he gets SFFed by damn near everything. Like, if he had lost in a squeaker to Ocelot instead of beating him back then, it woulda been real easy to peg the fodder and midcards that year... but instead he won and ran smack dab into Yoshi, who made him look damn near worthless (Yoshi in turn got SFF blown away by Mega Man making this a bit of a pointless thought exercise, but I digress).
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#165 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:50:55 PM | message detail
Oh right, Missingno.

Although I dunno. Missingno is hard to figure out.

What about Sora or Big Boss?

(Assuming a 24 hour match in Sora's case, because he probably doesn't beat Ryu in a night match)
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#166 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/30/2013 10:51:08 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
So how many non-Noble Niners would we take to beat Ryu?

Squall
Tifa
Auron
Vincent
Bowser
Luigi
Kirby
Ganondorf
Charizard
Yoshi
Zelda?


Mega Man X for sure. Zero would probably also make a tough match of it.
#167 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/30/2013 10:51:22 PM | message detail
I like the Boss fodderline
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#168 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:51:54 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Missingno?


Missingno. may need another contest or two before it finds a value to stick around at.
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#169 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:52:01 PM | message detail
Oh right, MMX and Zero.

Don't know if I'd take Zero > Ryu though.
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#170 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:52:47 PM | message detail
I personally think The Boss is a bit too strong to be a fodder line. She's stronger than people give her credit for. Like, she could beat a lot of these guys we're calling low midcarders.
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#171 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:52:56 PM | message detail
Boss is better as a number for the present, because she's consistent and won't get SFFed by anything short of MGS... but she'll fade away, eventually, like Vyse did. Pac-Man is less reliable, but he's never gonna fade away, not ever.
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#172 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/30/2013 10:53:09 PM | message detail
Fair enough guys. There was a reason I put a question mark in there. I wasn't asking. I was saying that Missingno might be in there but it's kinda tough to tell.

Though I guess if rallies are part of Draven's natural strength then they're part of Missingno's too.
#173 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:54:08 PM | message detail
The Boss will stick around as long as Kojima continues to port the heck out of MGS3, and he's showing no signs of stopping!
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#174 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/30/2013 10:54:17 PM | message detail
Ness would be a good fodder line but he's also a problem since anything Nintendo with worth SFF's him to death.
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#175 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 10:55:37 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
The Boss will stick around as long as Kojima continues to port the heck out of MGS3, and he's showing no signs of stopping!


Kojima what are you doing

no one needed 3DS MGS3, not ever
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#176 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/30/2013 10:56:13 PM | message detail
I'm partial to the Laharl fodder line. If you can't beat an RPG character with nothing more than a cult fanbase, you shouldn't be advancing to the second round.
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#177 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:56:44 PM | message detail
Although it's kind of funny that we're arguing between The Boss and Pac-Man and they're about to share a common opponent in Nathan Drake!

Drake should be stronger this year than he was in 2010 though. I'd be a little surprised if he lost to Pac-Man. Not shocked, but I think he's a solid favorite going into that match.
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#178 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 10:57:09 PM | message detail
That would mean acknowledging Laharl is halfway decent, and he isn't!
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#179 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/30/2013 10:57:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
Belated as hell but only just got around to doing it.

You couldn't make it up. Oracle Consensus pick for Spring Breeze Dancin'? 8.88%
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#180 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/30/2013 10:57:52 PM | message detail | (edited)
Laharl is a good fodder line, but we're taking about the low-midcard line here.
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#181 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/30/2013 10:59:22 PM | message detail
I just realized this. If Charizard and Zero are legit near-elites (which we're defining as 45% on Sonic), Mega Man would need to be worth a ton to get through that match. I mean, we're talking 60/40-ing Charizard and SFFing Zero into the ground.

But I'm okay with that. I don't know if a non-bandwagoned Charizard is a legit near-elite. I could see him being worth 40% or less on Sonic, let alone Mega Man.
#182 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 11:00:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Although it's kind of funny that we're arguing between The Boss and Pac-Man and they're about to share a common opponent in Nathan Drake!

Drake should be stronger this year than he was in 2010 though. I'd be a little surprised if he lost to Pac-Man. Not shocked, but I think he's a solid favorite going into that match.


...wait, what the-

...

holy crap Pac-Man isn't the board favorite in that match, I don't see any way he doesn't smoke it

leaderboard here I com- wait
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#183 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 11:01:34 PM | message detail
#184 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 11:02:51 PM | message detail
(I see no way Pac-Man loses that match in my estimation, I was pretty positive the board would have him as a favorite)
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#185 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 11:04:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, I gathered that.

I just think Drake's going to be better now than he was in 2010, and I'd take Boss > Pac-Man.
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#186 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/30/2013 11:05:27 PM | message detail
The Mincecraft avatar may help Drake stand out quite a bit. It's usually the crazy looking characters that stand out against the Generic McDudes, but against a circle and some cubes, Drake could have the pic advantage.
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#187 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 11:06:53 PM | message detail
Boss beat the crap out of Drake in the middle of the day, though, and I'm actually inclined to think of him as weaker since then - there's some real truth to the idea that this site is populated in large part by people who stopped playing video games in like 2006. Drake is that kind of 'new' generic character brand that just bombs in these things, hard.

I guess we'll see!
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#188 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 11:08:17 PM | message detail
I dunno. I think the PS3 being the dominant platform nowadays will help Drake since Uncharted was the system's premiere exclusive franchise this gen. Maybe I'm wrong. Plus, he's had Uncharted 3 since the last contest.
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#189 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 11:08:18 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
The Mincecraft avatar may help Drake stand out quite a bit. It's usually the crazy looking characters that stand out against the Generic McDudes, but against a circle and some cubes, Drake could have the pic advantage.


I'll concede this thing at least. When I saw that match I initially went "generic name one, generic name two, PAC-MAN" and my mind screamed no-brainer.
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#190 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/30/2013 11:08:22 PM | message detail
Drake could lose that, but I seriously doubt he's gotten weaker since then.
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#191 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/30/2013 11:10:29 PM | message detail
My entire bracket hinges on him being alright, so he'd better not f*** this up in R1.
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#192 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/30/2013 11:11:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Generally speaking...

Below 20% on Base Link = Fodder
20-25% on BL = Low midcard
25-30% on BL = Midcard
30%+ on BL = High midcard/near elite

Keep in mind that Base Link is stronger than 2010 Link.


Wait. I thought 2010 Link was worth 52.23% on Base Link?
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#193 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2013 11:12:20 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
My entire bracket hinges on him being alright, so he'd better not f*** this up in R1.


Fox is going to R3 yo I'm so sorry
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#194 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/30/2013 11:12:46 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Wait. I thought 2010 Link was worth 52.23% on Base Link?


I think this assumes 2010 Cloud = 2003 Cloud, which ALSO isn't true.
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#195 | creativename | Posted 7/30/2013 11:13:57 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I just realized this. If Charizard and Zero are legit near-elites (which we're defining as 45% on Sonic), Mega Man would need to be worth a ton to get through that match. I mean, we're talking 60/40-ing Charizard and SFFing Zero into the ground.

But I'm okay with that. I don't know if a non-bandwagoned Charizard is a legit near-elite. I could see him being worth 40% or less on Sonic, let alone Mega Man.

Well yes, that's the reason Mega Man is a heavy underdog against Charizard.

Last time Mega Man was stuck with Zero he lost to freakin' Weighted Companion Cube. Granted that was a bit different with Snake taking up so much %age, but sticking Mega Man with Zero of all people against anybody with legit strength is just evil.

Horribly, horribly evil.
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#196 | creativename | Posted 7/30/2013 11:16:39 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Generally speaking...

Below 20% on Base Link = Fodder
20-25% on BL = Low midcard
25-30% on BL = Midcard
30%+ on BL = High midcard/near elite

Keep in mind that Base Link is stronger than 2010 Link.


Wait. I thought 2010 Link was worth 52.23% on Base Link?

Who made that calculation? Link 2K2/2K3 would stomp current Link/2010 Link. Could be 54+%. At least 53%. Link has very clearly lost a step.
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#197 | Xuxon | Posted 7/30/2013 11:17:29 PM | message detail
#198 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/30/2013 11:17:36 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I think it wouldn't hurt to establish different levels of "midcard," or at least simply acknowledge that midcard is easily the largest tier of characters we have. The Noble 9 are nine. The near-elites are like... another dozen? Then we have a ton of characters who'd never challenge someone like Bowser but shouldn't be called fodder either.


Because of the expanded field of characters this year, I would like to suggest the idea of a "Near Fodder" level. Characters that are considered to be "Near Fodder" have the potential to fluctuate below and above the fodder line from year to year. So this my suggestion for the different levels of "midcard":

Near Fodder
Low Midcarder
Solid Midcarder
Near Elite
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#199 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/30/2013 11:24:24 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Generally speaking...

Below 20% on Base Link = Fodder
20-25% on BL = Low midcard
25-30% on BL = Midcard
30%+ on BL = High midcard/near elite

Keep in mind that Base Link is stronger than 2010 Link.


Wait. I thought 2010 Link was worth 52.23% on Base Link?

Who made that calculation? Link 2K2/2K3 would stomp current Link/2010 Link. Could be 54+%. At least 53%. Link has very clearly lost a step.


It's from Ngamer's site

http://thengamer.com/xstats/ranks.php?name=Link

I have no idea whose value it is using though
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#200 | GoldSlime35 | Posted 7/30/2013 11:28:06 PM | message detail
Maybe Isaac from Golden Sun as the fodder line? Crash/Spyro could also probably work.

I think Big Daddy would be a good tier divider in the middle since he doesn't get SFFed by the large numbers of Nintendo/Square characters.