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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1084
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Magus/Otacon, are you ready for this match? ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
It's a shame only two pictures of Magus exist outside of his game. --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
This doesn't really say anything about Pit, though Rydia probably says good things about Cecil. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Magus got this. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
DoctorJimmy133 posted... It's a shame only two pictures of Magus exist outside of his game. http://www.angelfire.com/games2/magusdomain/MAGUSLOOK.jpg --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
One day Magus and Frog will make it to the sprite round again. One day. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
If Magus can lose to Otacon, he can lose to virtually anyone.
I love Otacon but his appeal is squarely in the vein of total nerds,
and GameFAQs doesn't usually side with characters that hit that close to
home. Then again, man... when's the last time Magus has come in first in a match...? --- sig |
Then00bAvenger posted... One day Magus and Frog will make it to the sprite round again. Well, we do get to see Kefka if the sprite round stays. Against Snake no less. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Karma Hunter posted... If Magus can lose to Otacon, he can lose to virtually anyone. I love Otacon but his appeal is squarely in the vein of total nerds, and GameFAQs doesn't usually side with characters that hit that close to home. Phoenix/Bomberman/Crash, I believe. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
This year is as good as any for him. Weak competition and very low vote totals. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
_SecretSquirrel posted... Then00bAvenger posted...One day Magus and Frog will make it to the sprite round again. Kefka is no lock to win his second round match <_<. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Karma Hunter posted... Then again, man... when's the last time Magus has come in first in a match...? 2007, against that mighty trio of Phoenix/Bomberman/Crash! --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
_SecretSquirrel posted... Then00bAvenger posted...One day Magus and Frog will make it to the sprite round again. Kefka is not safe at all next round. He is not exactly the picture of contest reliability. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Karma Hunter posted...Then again, man... when's the last time Magus has come in first in a match...? That's retroactively sort of impressive. Never in a million years do I take him over Phoenix again. --- sig |
Will
be interesting to see if Chrono Trigger being available on the iPhone
helps CT characters any. We've seen it already help FFIV --- Feeling tired? Allow me to prescribe you a peppermint latte |
To me, Zack/Ryu H/Kefka was always a three point match. Altair and Lara aren't exactly contest gods either. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Karma Hunter posted... Kefka is not safe at all next round. He is not exactly the picture of contest reliability. Nor is Altair! That match will be fun. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
If round 2 is face shot round we could see strawberry Kefka --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Lara Croft could win that match and I wouldn't be too surprised. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... To me, Zack/Ryu H/Kefka was always a three point match. Altair and Lara aren't exactly contest gods either. Nor has Kefka. I took him to win, but you can't discount the possibility that Ryu H/Zack just bombed instead of Kefka beasting. --- sig |
_SecretSquirrel posted... To me, Zack/Ryu H/Kefka was always a three point match. Altair and Lara aren't exactly contest gods either. Well to keep in mind Kefka didn't spike so much as Zack fell. Kefka didn't light the world on fire in comparison to Ryu, plus Lara is bound to be in her best shape in perhaps ever. But "Hey kefka has this on lock" is the moment kefka loses by double digits. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
444 The number of death --- The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board. |
I
love how with contest inflation, Gordon Freeman can consistently reach
Round 2 and still do no "better" in terms of how many battlers remain
than when he "never won". --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
I'm coming to the slow realization that I have 0 confidence in Otacon. Here's hoping Crono beats Pikachu, somehow. --- Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn |
Blairville posted... I'm coming to the slow realization that I have 0 confidence in Otacon. Here's hoping Crono beats Pikachu, somehow. I've never had confidence in Otacon. Every part of me is screaming to take Magus but it's Magus. I have confidence in him finding a way to lose no matter the cost! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
You are now realizing Freeman has more first round wins than first round losses. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 36/42 Today's Picks: Shadow and Leon Kennedy |
_SecretSquirrel posted... Then00bAvenger posted...One day Magus and Frog will make it to the sprite round again. Oh god, Angel Kefka or laughing sprite Kefka vs. Solid S*** would be glorious. Kefka better not blow his next match...Altair and Lara have no reason at all to beat him, but Kefka's trolling knows no bounds it seems so who knows. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Achromatic posted... _SecretSquirrel posted...To me, Zack/Ryu H/Kefka was always a three point match. Altair and Lara aren't exactly contest gods either. Oh I know this isn't a sudden Kefka rise, but I always felt that even the weakest of Kefka/Ryu H/Zack would beat the strongest of the two preceding matches. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
Dr_Coffee posted... Will be interesting to see if Chrono Trigger being available on the iPhone helps CT characters any. We've seen it already help FFIV That was Dissidia...iPhone boost? Seriously? :\ --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
The
iOS port of Chrono Trigger sucks anyway. It doesn't even have support
for iPad screens, so you have to play it super zoomed in. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
I
took Otacon because I believe Magus is the anti-Kefka: just when you
think he can win, he finds a way to lose. I don't like to trust that
kind of logic often, especially with Otacon...but Magus has got
some proving to do after losing to Sandbag despite Sonic in the poll.
CT's eighteen years old now while MGS is gaining momentum again, and the
Rivalry Rumble didn't give me much confidence for Team CT when Snakes
beat Crono/Lavos and Frog/Magus didn't excel against Raiden/Vamp. Frog looked okay against Viewtiful Joe/Handsome Jack, but it's still Magus...should be fun. --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
Rydia(presumably who he's talking about) wasn't in Dissidia... I don't think. But Rydia was decent last time she was in anyway. And she has boobs --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Putting
it another way, Ocelot's expected to roughly 57.5-42.5 Magus based on
the last contest; be generous with Magus slippage and let's peg Magus
at, like, 60-40. Is Otacon worth 40% on Ocelot pre-SFF? ...it's possible, but man, it'd be something. --- sig |
This just seems like the kinda match Magus can win. That's what my gut says, and it's only lied to me 6 times this contest. --- Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn |
creativename posted... Dr_Coffee posted...Will be interesting to see if Chrono Trigger being available on the iPhone helps CT characters any. We've seen it already help FFIV I agree, GameFAQs is barely a hotbed for PC gaming let alone mobile gaming. --- In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment. |
Karma Hunter posted... Putting it another way, Ocelot's expected to roughly 57.5-42.5 Magus based on the last contest; be generous with Magus slippage and let's peg Magus at, like, 60-40. Is Otacon worth 40% on Ocelot pre-SFF? The problem for Magus is I expect Jade to take, like, 10% of the vote and almost all of it will come at his expense. Like "Jade doesn't matter" might be a nice thought, but if it is expected to be a close match, having another fan favorite JRPG character in there, regardless of how weak, will matter. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Magus goes beyond logic and xstats, using xstats to determine the outcome of his match is pretty fallacious and pointless. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
Achromatic posted... almost all of it will come at his expense. No, it won't. The majority of it might, but it's not going to make or break the match. --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
I
think CT will be good this year. Certainly not the highs they once had,
but I don't see them slipping from the last contest. CT's getting
older, but the audience on the site these days is also probably the
oldest its been, and without a lot of the big casual traffic that would
go the other way against CT. Plus, it's Otacon. That's the real bottom
of the MGS barrel. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Achromatic posted... Karma Hunter posted...Putting it another way, Ocelot's expected to roughly 57.5-42.5 Magus based on the last contest; be generous with Magus slippage and let's peg Magus at, like, 60-40. Is Otacon worth 40% on Ocelot pre-SFF? I agree that Otacon is the most differentiated character in the poll, and it helps him. He's got the intangibles, he's got the weak opponent, if he has any strength at all he will win. ...but does he have any strength? As an MGS fan, as much as I'd love it to be so, my gut says no. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Achromatic posted...almost all of it will come at his expense. I guess we will see. If it breaks the match, I'll be right. If it doesn't, you'll be right. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Achromatic posted... I guess we will see. If it breaks the match, I'll be right. If it doesn't, you'll be right. Except there will be no way to know for sure. But this kind of "They're the same genre so surely everyone who votes for Jade would've voted for Magus instead" is pretty fallacious thinking. --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
As far as the Sandbag debacle goes, personally, I think Sandbag would have won by more with Otacon in the poll instead of Magus. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
I'm
surprised that people here have so little faith in Magus. What the hell
did he do to completely lose confidence here? I mean, sure he lost to a
bag of sand, but that was a 4-way match. Joke characters always get a
big strength boost from 4-way contests. A character that resembles
rotting dog poo would run roughshod over half the characters in this
contest if these were 4-way matches instead of 3-way matches. --- Drop it to the floor... |
kinsho3 posted... I'm surprised that people here have so little faith in Magus. What the hell did he do to completely lose confidence here? I mean, sure he lost to a bag of sand, but that was a 4-way match. Joke characters always get a big strength boost from 4-way contests. A character that resembles rotting dog poo would run roughshod over half the characters in this contest if these were 4-way matches instead of 3-way matches. He got curbstomped by a character that went 50/50 with Captain Falcon this year... he's pretty weak. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Achromatic posted...I guess we will see. If it breaks the match, I'll be right. If it doesn't, you'll be right. No it is called SFF. We've been dealing with it for a decade now, Leon. Keep up. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
kinsho3 posted... I mean, sure he lost to a bag of sand You answered your own question. That bag of sand went on to get crushed by Sub-Zero next round, so it's not like Sandbag had a joke rally behind it. Magus was legitimately weak enough to lose to Sandbag. --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
Not
sure this Chrono Trigger/Tales LFF or whatever is a thing that will
matter. Maybe a little, but not really enough to change the match unless
it's super close. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
And
Otacon doesn't really have much reason to have any strength. Sure, he's
likable in a certain respect, but he's far from the type of character
GameFAQs voters gravitate towards. If anything, he is the Tingle of the
MGS series. And I'd expect Magus to crush Tingle in a head-to-head
match-up. --- Drop it to the floor... |
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