GameFAQs Contests

And chart from the night match:

Time | Narukami | Shadow | Kat | Votes
0:05 | 36.82% | 49.90% | 13.28% | 497
1:00 | 34.26% | 49.75% | 15.99% | 4892
2:00 | 34.92% | 48.51% | 16.57% | 2855
3:00 | 34.62% | 49.42% | 15.96% | 2080
4:00 | 32.57% | 47.89% | 19.53% | 1756
5:00 | 34.16% | 46.25% | 19.59% | 1455
6:00 | 32.01% | 48.59% | 19.40% | 1309
7:00 | 32.52% | 49.93% | 17.55% | 1430
8:00 | 30.19% | 49.91% | 19.90% | 1623
9:00 | 31.62% | 51.02% | 17.36% | 1866
10:00 | 29.65% | 51.30% | 19.06% | 1889
11:00 | 30.17% | 51.12% | 18.71% | 1972
12:00 | 30.21% | 52.98% | 16.81% | 1814

Yu good early, Shadow good late, and Europe likes the Vita! Who knew!

X-Stats: Shadow the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Yu Narukami – 39.58%
Kat – 26.18%

Shadow's prediction percentage was 61.68%
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Score-Brackets-% Right
41------4------------75.00
40------44----------93.18
39------137--------91.97
38------195--------82.56
37------231--------71.00
36------323--------69.35
35------472--------66.31
34------665--------64.36
33------898--------61.58
32------1233------59.12
31------1414------58.84
30------1466------59.82
29------1512------61.11
28------1383------62.18
27------1094------63.99
26------984--------64.33
25------748--------63.90
24------573--------65.62
23------474--------60.76
22------355--------66.20
21------262--------56.87
20------176--------44.32
19------148--------48.65
18------117--------43.59
17------79----------43.04
16------61----------39.34
15------52----------32.69
14------45----------31.11
13------25----------28.00
12------13----------23.08
11------9------------11.11
10------13----------46.15
9--------6------------66.67
8--------3------------66.67
7--------4------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------2------------0.00
4--------19----------5.26
3--------1------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------9------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

Strong suport for Shadow in the top tiers but a -1 (41 points) does go down. As usual we get the sharp drop before level off. Oddly enough around the -13s (29 points), prediction percentage actually goes up for a bit before coming back down.

3 people fell off the Top 49. KanzarisKelshen, Prankster928 and Squirrelgate did not have Shadow winning.

1 person got it wrong and survived. VincentLauw also did not have Shadow winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place

What are you guys thinking for Pikachu vs Lloyd vs Big Daddy?

Obviously Pikachu > ?

But I'm not sure about 2nd/3rd placements as usual.

For some reason I am leaning towards Big Daddy, just because I remember tales characters sucking.

Pikachu > Big Daddy > Lloyd

Should be a pretty big gap between all three.
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"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"

I just went with Big Daddy because he's been more impressive, as sad as that sounds
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Not really sad! Beating Ness and getting 40% on Tifa is pretty good!
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http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif

Hah, thanks leon. I was leaning towards that, but I always second guess myself with the 2nd and 3rd picks for some reason.

Sad as in some enemy character significantly outperforms a protagonist(and he's not even from a more popular game)
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Just thought of something as I was going through div 6 expert. Has Scorpion been in a character battle before? I always see Sub Zero in most years, is he more popular than Scorpion or something?

Who knows how good that 40% on Tifa is when it was literally right after Sephiroth > Missingno.

Sub-Zero is more popular, but Scorpion's been in plenty of Character Battles before.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll?search=Scorpion
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Scorpion's been in more character battles than Sub-Zero, man.
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tgs2 posted...

Who knows how good that 40% on Tifa is when it was literally right after Sephiroth > Missingno.

I doubt they held it against Tifa since she overperformed pretty hard on Sephiroth the next round.

40% on Tifa is Gordon Freeman good.

Which would basically make Ness and Peach relatively equal, and I don't see a problem with that.

So I wouldn't think there would have been a drastic overperformance on Big Daddy's part there.
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Scorpion managed top 8 once.

Of course, it was the worst division ever, but still.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto

Ahhh true, I didn't come to GameFAQs till 2006 though, so I missed all those early ones :(

I wonder why Sub Zero is more popular? They seem to have pretty similar designs, I haven't actually played Mortal Kombat though.

Because he's cool
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Sub Zero just sounds cooler than Scorpion.

Big Daddy can honestly win his match if that 40% on Tifa is legit (pegging her around, say, Auron level) and Lloyd drags Pika down (he will, at least a bit). But I don't think it is, at least not now.
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Just noticed I have Gilgamesh losing in my bracket.

How the hell did this happen.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto

Eh, even counting that match as legit, Pikachu should still be well ahead of Big Daddy. Pikachu only getting 55% on Ness indirectly sounds kinda crazy.

Which may make you think that Tifa match is not legit if you don't think those two results correlate.

Either way, Big Daddy gets totally wasted because he could've had some really debatable matches here.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Big Daddy can honestly win his match if that 40% on Tifa is legit (pegging her around, say, Auron level) and Lloyd drags Pika down (he will, at least a bit). But I don't think it is, at least not now.

As funny as that'd be with people having Pikachu beating Crono and some even have him toing to top 9 for some reason, there's no chance at all.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto

Eh Lloyd isn't going to damage Pikachu by any notable amount I don't think. Not even enough to be called "a bit" Any difference from expectation there will be within year to year variation range
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LeonhartFour posted...

Either way, Big Daddy gets totally wasted because he could've had some really debatable matches here.

Basically the main flaw this contest has. With 2/3 of the characters going out each round, so many of them is wasted.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto

LeonhartFour posted...

Eh, even counting that match as legit, Pikachu should still be well ahead of Big Daddy. Pikachu only getting 55% on Ness indirectly sounds kinda crazy.

Which may make you think that Tifa match is not legit if you don't think those two results correlate.

Either way, Big Daddy gets totally wasted because he could've had some really debatable matches here.

Right, I don't think that match works out, Ness getting that much on Tifa and setting Tifa = Auron makes Ness up with the Vivis of the world, no thank you. Pikachu is also simply not that strong, which is why I consider my most shaky pick Pikachu > Crono if Crono hasn't dropped as much as I wagered and he puts the afterburners on Magus.

Edit: ...and people are really underestimating the competition that Pikachu has outright lost to, even in fourways. They're just having trouble with grappling against the Sprite Snake match.
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Everybody ready to see Simon Belmont > Gordon Freeman? I surely am.
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SuperNiceDog wags his tail better than your regular, standard dog.
-If someone scares the hell out of you, then are you protected by God?

To make the time warp to 2002 complete, GFNW will return. I'm sure of it.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Karma Hunter posted...

Edit: ...and people are really underestimating the competition that Pikachu has outright lost to, even in fourways. They're just having trouble with grappling against the Sprite Snake match.

Which match result is the bad one?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2906

This is probably the only one that can't be explained by LFF.
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"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"

Heck, he held up like a champ to Luigi and even Samus.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Edit: ...and people are really underestimating the competition that Pikachu has outright lost to, even in fourways. They're just having trouble with grappling against the Sprite Snake match.

Which match result is the bad one?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2906

This is probably the only one that can't be explained by LFF.

Not just that, in 2008 Pika only scored 55% on Ike in a direct match. He's only worth like 60% on a Shepard that's just a fraction of today's (no ME3 or PS3 ME2) in a day match.

Pikachu's not bad at all, but he's overestimated by the board because we haven't had a legit 1v1 x-stat value for him since the days when Pokemon was bombing to Xenogears in matches. In a bad setup he's vulnerable.
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Match XLV: (7) Gordon Freeman vs. (12) Hades vs. (21) Simon Belmont

Previous Contest

Gordon Freeman – 2010
53.25% against Princess Peach
38.04% against Tifa Lockhart

Hades – N/A
N/A

Simon Belmont – 2010
40.29% against Ezio Auditore da Firenze

Analysis

I just realized that after this match Gordon Freeman will have more first round wins than loses. He has come a long way since Half-Life 2 was released, but with no Half-Life 3 announcement he could be heading back into GFNW territory. Lucky for him his opponents this round is easy, but I think you have to consider the possibility that anyone with half decent strength would have a chance at winning over Freeman.

Simon Belmont did look quite impressive against Ezio which contradicts his other performances, did he get a random boost since 2007 or is there some weird Crono SFF? I think he will be closer to his 2010 self, but if he does revert back to his weaker self that may place him in danger of finishing in third. Even if he remains at his 2010 performance it would probably take quite the drop for Freeman to cause an upset.

This version of Hades is from Kid Icarus: Uprising and while the general public may have heard of Hades they are fans of the Disney version and not the Greek Mythology. Hades will be one of the type of characters where the picture will hurt him greatly because as soon as people know it is not Disney’s Hades I do not see them voting for him, even as a proxy.

Simon could have a decent run at Freeman, breaking 40% on Ezio was no joke, but something does feel off about that performance. I would not be surprised if Freeman goes and crushes Simon and pushes him to where he was ranked. With that said that leaves quite the range for Freeman to fall as he could fail to break 40% or push into the 50s.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Gordon Freeman > Simon Belmont and Hades

charmander6000’s Prediction: Gordon Freeman – 45.67%, Simon Belmont – 33.57%, Hades – 20.76%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 36/42 Today's Picks: Shadow and Leon Kennedy

And really, Pikachu's had so many weird matches since 2007 that I'm not even really sure where he stands right now. Probably the cleanest match he's had was that match against Shepard in 2010, and we don't even know what 2010 Shepard was worth.
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I think Crono beats Pikachu even if Magus is in the poll. Pikachu just isn't that strong, honestly.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I also say all this having taken Pikachu > Crono! I know that may seem contradictory, but I thought pre-contest that Crono is in for a world of hurt with Magus there after three years of decay.
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Karma Hunter posted...

Not just that, in 2008 Pika only scored 55% on Ike in a direct match.

Yeah, and then he went out and beat Alucard even with Captain Falcon in the poll, which I think is a good result for 2008.

Got 37% on Samus even with Crono and Vincent duking it out all day. Got 40%+ on Luigi.

Of course, he only ended up with 53% on Tidus in 2007, which would put him at Sub-Zero-ish levels, I guess.

Like I said, I don't know. Pikachu doesn't make sense to me.
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Karma Hunter posted...

I also say all this having taken Pikachu > Crono! I know that may seem contradictory, but I thought pre-contest that Crono is in for a world of hurt with Magus there after three years of decay.

Personally, I think Crono's probably in better shape if Magus makes it there! If Magus has fallen far enough to lose to Otacon, it probably doesn't say good things about CT in general!
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."

Wh0a, people are really underestimating Simon here!
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SuperNiceDog wags his tail better than your regular, standard dog.
-If someone scares the hell out of you, then are you protected by God?

I dunno. I think Simon's performance on Ezio in 2010 was an aberration. He's never looked anywhere near that good in any of his other matches.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Not just that, in 2008 Pika only scored 55% on Ike in a direct match.

Yeah, and then he went out and beat Alucard even with Captain Falcon in the poll, which I think is a good result for 2008.

Got 37% on Samus even with Crono and Vincent duking it out all day. Got 40%+ on Luigi.

Of course, he only ended up with 53% on Tidus in 2007, which would put him at Sub-Zero-ish levels, I guess.

Like I said, I don't know. Pikachu doesn't make sense to me.

The worst results Pika has are in 2007 aside from when he moved on from Dante (at which point he had a bit of a bandwagon, maybe even costing the Luigi the match when he might not have otherwise). Like, it's blindingly obvious he would have folded against either Tidus or Vivi if either one weren't in the match.

As for 2008, I don't like the Alucard result myself personally, as I don't think particularly high of him or Falcon's strengths. Even being chained down, it shouldn't have been so hard for the little guy. And a Nintendo character taking a big bite out of Samus, well...

I admit that Pikachu has been in a lot of weird matches, and that's because his paths have been all kinds of crazy our last few contests. That being said, in a 'neutral' setting I don't think he's amazingly strong or anything.
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I really wish Gordon had been given someone a little more on his level but he'd still be favored to beat because I totally would've taken the upset.

Someone like, say...Wesker.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

I also say all this having taken Pikachu > Crono! I know that may seem contradictory, but I thought pre-contest that Crono is in for a world of hurt with Magus there after three years of decay.

Personally, I think Crono's probably in better shape if Magus makes it there! If Magus has fallen far enough to lose to Otacon, it probably doesn't say good things about CT in general!

*Pikachu somehow breaks 80%*

Oh, I don't think Pikachu is all that great either. That's why I have Crono > Pikachu despite Magus being there!

I'm just saying I think he has more sneaky good results than sneaky bad results.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Oh, I don't think Pikachu is all that great either. That's why I have Crono > Pikachu despite Magus being there!

I'm just saying I think he has more sneaky good results than sneaky bad results.

So does Frog, technically.

But Frog is a chumpppppppppppppp. I feel if Pikachu had gone up against someone like Auron in Round 2 to get smashed by him and extrapolated through that, we wouldn't have Pikachu as the board favorite to escape this year's R2 match.
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Or if Pikachu faces Snake in a legitimate match!

And Frog hasn't had a sneaky good result since 2004!

Struggling to beat Riku not good, doing worse than Rikku on Samus not good, needing to cheat to beat Axel not good, doing worse than Kefka on Bowser not good
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
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Yeah I think Frog has more sneaky bad results. He just finishes in spectacular fashion so everyone thinks it's good, until they realize he should've had that in the bag to begin with.
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Just something I've kept up with in my head over the past few years...

First victories ever by each seed
1) Mario
2) Cloud
3) Duke Nukem
4) Donkey Kong
5) Crono
6) Alucard
7) Pikachu
8) Ryo Hazuki
9) Morrigan Aensland
10) Max Payne
11) Aerith Gainsborough
12) Aya Brea
13) Magus
14) Tina Armstrong
15) The Boss
16) Starcraft
17 and 18) n/a
19) Lugia
20) Aerith
21 and 22) n/a
23) Vincent Valentine
24) n/a
25) Altair
26 and 27) n/a

First losses by each seed
1) Halo
2) Kuja
3) Gordon Freeman
4) Sam Fisher
5) Terry Bogard
6) Kasumi
7) Gordon Freeman
8) Spyro
9) Guybrush Threepwood
10) Parappa the Rapper
11) Tails
12) Simon Belmont
13) Bub
14) Iori Yagami
15) Fox McCloud
16) Servbot
17) Captain Olimar
18) Isaac (Binding)
19) Demi-Fiend
20) Zero (999)
21) Jigglypuff
22) Alan Wake
23) Tiny Tina
24) Face McShooty
25) Jak
26) Kain
27) Tingle
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Obviously, that means victories/losses in the first round, right?
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ZeroSignal620 posted...

Just something I've kept up with in my head over the past few years...

First victories ever by each seed
1) Mario
2) Cloud
3) Duke Nukem
4) Donkey Kong
5) Crono
6) Alucard
7) Pikachu
8) Ryo Hazuki
9) Morrigan Aensland
10) Max Payne
11) Aerith Gainsborough
12) Aya Brea
13) Magus
14) Tina Armstrong
15) The Boss
16) Starcraft
17 and 18) n/a
19) Lugia
20) Aerith
21 and 22) n/a
23) Vincent Valentine
24) n/a
25) Altair
26 and 27) n/a

Are you sure Morrigan is the first ever 9 seed to win a match? We've had several other contests in the past that used a 1-16 seeding system. Under the 1-16 seeding system, the 9 seed is matched up against an 8 seed. Surely there's been at least one 8/9 match that has resulted in the 9 seed losing.
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-LusterSoldier- posted...

Are you sure Morrigan is the first ever 9 seed to win a match?

Considering she won the first ever 8/9 match ever, I'm pretty sure she was.
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"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"

Heh, my knowledge of the 2002 contest sucks so bad that I didn't even know Morrigan was a 9 seed in that contest. I thought she was a 9 seed in this contest, but then I looked at the bracket and here I found out she was a 6 seed in this contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!