Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1083

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/29/2013 1:52:53 PM | message detail
Zidane Ridley Dancin'



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2013 1:53:59 PM | message detail
With Zelda alone Groose will be stronger than Tharja, if he loses then that character will also be stronger than Tharja
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#3 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 1:56:01 PM | message detail
I played like half an hour of Skyward Sword and Groose was some kind of a stupid bully...who cares about that? that annoying kid from OOT that guarded the entrance to Lost Woods is better
#4 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 1:57:50 PM | message detail
Groose should be stupidly, pitifully weak... but his opponents are like, nothing. I got no clue.
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#5 | pyresword | Posted 7/29/2013 2:01:37 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I played like half an hour of Skyward Sword


And this is why you think no one likes Groose
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#6 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/29/2013 2:02:03 PM | message detail
Groose is from a game that, although weak by Zelda standards, is strong enough to crush any game of either of his opponents, neither of whom have ever made a contest or established themselves (or their series) in any way on this site over the past 15 years. The Nintendo connection should be enough for Groose.
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#7 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 2:04:12 PM | message detail
Groose is from Zelda, legitimately liked, and the higher seed. Lu Bu could win but I have every reason to pick Groose.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#8 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:04:52 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I played like half an hour of Skyward Sword and Groose was some kind of a stupid bully...who cares about that? that annoying kid from OOT that guarded the entrance to Lost Woods is better


Groose is way better than Mido.
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#9 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 2:10:17 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Groose is from a game that, although weak by Zelda standards, is strong enough to crush any game of either of his opponents, neither of whom have ever made a contest or established themselves (or their series) in any way on this site over the past 15 years. The Nintendo connection should be enough for Groose.


This doesn't hold up indefinitely - like, Fado from OoT would get crushed here even though it's from the site's #1 game. I'm not convinced the majority of voters will even know who Groose is.

...but they shouldn't know who Yoshimitsu or Lu Bu is either ugh the votals are gonna be atrocious
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#10 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/29/2013 2:12:57 PM | message detail
I went with Yoshimitsu for the upset. It's a crap match anyway
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#11 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/29/2013 2:14:45 PM | message detail
I had Yoshimitsu but wasn't feeling good about it so I went Groose

Don't feel good about that either, but better than Yoshimitsu
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#12 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 2:27:41 PM | message detail
I have Yoshimitsu winning that because that match just seems like it's meant to be Midna vs. Scorpion all over again, seeing how it's a side character from ONE Zelda game (and I haven't heard nearly as much about Groose compared to Midna - put it this way: Midna has her own Wikipedia article, while Groose...big fat no there) vs. a badass character spanning a long-running franchise - or TWO in this case.

I also feel as if Yoshimitsu should have a recognizability advantage, but then again I had a lot of exposure to Tekken and Soulcalibur when I was younger while Groose's only game came out a few years ago. I felt similarly about Mr. Game & Watch, but now somehow I don't - though to be fair, one of his opponents has SNAG factor while the other is the main character of one of the most popular games of last year. Groose simply cannot compete, and even otherwise Groose suffers from the problem of his game being extremely recent. Characters in his mold have bombed all contest without exception, and N proved that even characters from franchises popular on this site are not safe.
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#13 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 2:29:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, I figured that Yoshimitsu's been in games for quite awhile now; people at least know who he is. And even though technically the Tekken Yoshimitsu and the Soul Calibur Yoshimitsu aren't the same person, they look the same and whichever one isn't in this contest will probably be helping whichever one is. (I mean, Sub-Zero's listed on the "Meet the Characters" page as having debuted in Mortal Kombat when he actually debuted in Mortal Kombat II; the "Sub-Zero" in the first Mortal Kombat game is Noob Saibot and has been known as such in almost every other game in the series.)

That's been a safe strategy so far, right? When a character who is (or would seem to be, since we don't actually have values for any of these guys) weak, but has at least been around long enough to make some impression, goes against two characters who are either very new or very obscure, the most well-known one wins.
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#14 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 2:31:35 PM | message detail
Well Elizabeth from BioShock Infinite beat Poison and Thrall, but then again the former is from a series no one on this site cares about while the latter suffers from ensemble cast syndrome and "skip the story" syndrome.

Other examples of characters typically hit by "skip the story" syndrome include Sarah Kerrigan, Ridley, and every Call of Duty character. I'm hoping this doesn't need explanation.
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#15 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:33:14 PM | message detail
What do you mean "skip the story" in Metroid?
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#16 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 2:38:28 PM | message detail
Metroid has a story!?
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#17 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:41:34 PM | message detail
Don't forget Diablo

Deckard Cain got absolutely slaughtered!
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#18 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:44:32 PM | message detail
So is Dancing the 2nd weakest character?Or is Caim still the 2nd?
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#19 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:45:51 PM | message detail
So is Dancing the 2nd weakest character?Or is Caim still the 2nd?

Ridley vs. Dracula will tell you the answer
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#20 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 2:46:29 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
What do you mean "skip the story" in Metroid?


In most Metroid games, the story is either in the background or is pulled off in nonverbal fashion. Heck, this quote from Ridley's contest history on the Wiki tells it best:

He has a story to him, but you really have to search for it. Casual Metroid players just see Ridley as "the guy you fight in Metroid games", and many people probably have no idea that Ridley is the leader of the Space Pirates.


Also the name of the factor comes from an entry on TV Tropes called "Play the Game, Skip the Story" - Metroid Prime and StarCraft being the examples I remember best.
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#21 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2013 2:55:56 PM | message detail
But that's not skip the story game. A skip the story game would be one where people focus heavily on the multiplayer and forget about the single player after playing it once, if at all.
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#22 | ZFS | Posted 7/29/2013 2:56:25 PM | message detail
Groose isn't just a Zelda character, he's a pretty awesome Zelda character. Would be surprised if he lost to a Tekken guy or LU BU (seriously!)
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#23 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/29/2013 2:59:36 PM | message detail
I took Yoshimitsu there because I honestly believe Skyward Sword is by far the weakest console Zelda game.
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#24 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 3:13:07 PM | message detail
Another 4-vote update. There have actually been some updates that have been damn near close to identical--I've been looking at SBD's percentages and there have been a few times where they've been exactly identical, but this time they were awfully close together, just four updates apart. Looked to see how the other two compared.

Just one vote off. One of them was 111-98-13, the other was 110-99-13.
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#25 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 3:18:24 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
charmander6000 posted...
What do you mean "skip the story" in Metroid?


In most Metroid games, the story is either in the background or is pulled off in nonverbal fashion. Heck, this quote from Ridley's contest history on the Wiki tells it best:

He has a story to him, but you really have to search for it. Casual Metroid players just see Ridley as "the guy you fight in Metroid games", and many people probably have no idea that Ridley is the leader of the Space Pirates.


Also the name of the factor comes from an entry on TV Tropes called "Play the Game, Skip the Story" - Metroid Prime and StarCraft being the examples I remember best.


Never encountered that page. Huh. *looks at it*

Yep, sounds about right. I for one find Shadow the Hedgehog to be a perfectly decent, though not spectacular, game if you completely ignore the story and pretend it's not even part of the Sonic series.
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#26 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/29/2013 3:40:30 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
39------5------------100.00
38------45----------100.00
37------158--------96.84
36------219--------95.43
35------268--------94.40
34------404--------89.11
33------601--------87.69
32------827--------77.99
31------1175------81.36
30------1422------80.87
29------1579------79.92
28------1530------78.37
27------1550------78.84
26------1191------75.73
25------1012------72.43
24------769--------71.26
23------605--------69.09
22------475--------64.84
21------373--------67.83
20------277--------61.73
19------190--------57.37
18------136--------44.85
17------103--------63.11
16------86----------48.84
15------64----------40.63
14------54----------37.04
13------39----------38.46
12------20----------30.00
11------10----------20.00
10------10----------30.00
9--------13----------15.38
8--------3------------33.33
7--------5------------0.00
6--------1------------0.00
5--------2------------0.00
4--------19----------0.00
3--------1------------0.00
2--------3------------0.00
1--------9------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

Pretty easy match that even the casual bracket makers do well on. Everyone in the Top 50 gets it right so the mysterious 50th place, who is the only bracket with 38 points not on the Top 49, remains a mystery.

No one fell off the Top 49.
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#27 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/29/2013 3:49:27 PM | message detail
Reminder: Zidane is scoring 90% on somebody.

Hell, Ridley's scoring 89% on him.
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#28 | creativename | Posted 7/29/2013 4:21:37 PM | message detail
I would have picked Groose if I had known he was from a Zelda game (Zeldrones...!). Yoshimitsu is the only character I've heard of there though, and I'm guessing most voters have no clue who Groose is (Skyward Sword probably has the lowest playrate of any console Zelda since Zelda II).

That said, Zelda strength alone might be enough to crush that match because it's soooo weak.

Only thing that would surprise me is Lu Bu winning. Most voters have probably at least heard of Yoshimitsu even if they don't give a crap about his games. And the people who actually played Skyward Sword will probably auto-vote for Groose even if they don't like him, because his competition is crap. I can't see any arguments for Lu Bu though.

Not_Wylvane posted...
Reminder: Zidane is scoring 90% on somebody.

Hell, Ridley's scoring 89% on him.

I had Dancin' pegged at 10%, thought he could go as low as 7%, but I thought the funny name alone would keep him from such near-Chester level depths.

Literally getting octupled by Ridley.
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#29 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/29/2013 4:24:10 PM | message detail
The idea of Yoshimitsu being more well known than an actual historic figure is weird to me.

Not that I'm doubting that's the case on GameFAQs, but yeah
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#30 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/29/2013 4:28:25 PM | message detail
Who in the heck let that picture of Zidane pass? Barely even looks like Zidane!
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#31 | creativename | Posted 7/29/2013 4:36:15 PM | message detail
I just realized that "Missile" didn't refer to the large bullets from Super Mario Bros.

We could have yet another near Chester here...WTF is "Phantom Detective"??
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#32 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/29/2013 5:12:35 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I just realized that "Missile" didn't refer to the large bullets from Super Mario Bros.

We could have yet another near Chester here...WTF is "Phantom Detective"??


yeah that ("bullet"?) and the "angry sun" would be two cool new "characters" (at least way better than all those pokemon I read about in the last topic)
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#33 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/29/2013 5:13:46 PM | message detail
You're thinking of Bullet Bills for the SMB enemy.

Ghost Trick is another Adventure game from Capcom. It's not nearly as popular as Phoenix Wright, although I guess Missile is in Phoenix Wright as well.
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#34 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/29/2013 5:19:55 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
You're thinking of Bullet Bills for the SMB enemy.

Ghost Trick is another Adventure game from Capcom. It's not nearly as popular as Phoenix Wright, although I guess Missile is in Phoenix Wright as well.


I don't think it's the same dog.
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#35 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/29/2013 5:26:37 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I just realized that "Missile" didn't refer to the large bullets from Super Mario Bros.

We could have yet another near Chester here...WTF is "Phantom Detective"??


Missile should be pretty weak. He even finished in last place in this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5141

Literally getting tripled by Dan Hibiki and quadrupled by Little Mac. Magikarp put up 94.16% on Missile, although some of those characters underperformed because there were no pictures for that poll. Characters who can be instantly recognized by their name alone overperformed in that poll. Magikarp is a character that doesn't need a picture here, as the voters are going to recognize him just by his name alone.
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#36 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/29/2013 5:28:29 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
You're thinking of Bullet Bills for the SMB enemy.

Ghost Trick is another Adventure game from Capcom. It's not nearly as popular as Phoenix Wright, although I guess Missile is in Phoenix Wright as well.


I don't think it's the same dog.


I haven't played Ghost Trick yet. It could just be two different dogs with the same name.
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#37 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/29/2013 5:37:18 PM | message detail
3 vote update for SBD now. First update under 2%. I guess as vote totals continue to decline in the next 3 1/2 hours, SBD has a better chance of pulling in a 0 vote update.
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#38 | Big Bob | Posted 7/29/2013 6:01:43 PM | message detail
Missile will get some votes based on the fact that he's a goofy-looking Pomeranian. Plus, while I wouldn't take Ghost Trick to win a contest match, it's not bottom-tier when it comes to obscurity.
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#39 | scaryice | Posted 7/29/2013 6:27:36 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I would have picked Groose if I had known he was from a Zelda game (Zeldrones...!). Yoshimitsu is the only character I've heard of there though, and I'm guessing most voters have no clue who Groose is (Skyward Sword probably has the lowest playrate of any console Zelda since Zelda II).


Majora's Mask sold the fewest copies of any of the 8 main console Zelda's.
#40 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/29/2013 6:27:50 PM | message detail
0 vote update for SBD on the 9:14 PM EST update. Before that update, SBD had a 9.93% update, his best update since the board vote.
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#41 | scaryice | Posted 7/29/2013 6:30:08 PM | message detail
Big Bob posted...
Missile will get some votes based on the fact that he's a goofy-looking Pomeranian. Plus, while I wouldn't take Ghost Trick to win a contest match, it's not bottom-tier when it comes to obscurity.


Tokyo Jungle Pomeranian vs Missile, who wins?
#42 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/29/2013 6:45:20 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
0 vote update for SBD on the 9:14 PM EST update. Before that update, SBD had a 9.93% update, his best update since the board vote.

I find it hard to really care about this for some reason. I guess it's like the moon landing, the first time is legendary but when it happens yet again, there's not much impact…

Caim > SBD confirmed?
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#43 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/29/2013 6:50:44 PM | message detail
SBD was the only character that I believed could sink below Chester. Now that SBD has broken the 1000 vote mark, I don't think anyone else is going to sink below Chester in this contest.
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#44 | Sorozone | Posted 7/29/2013 6:57:35 PM | message detail
scaryice posted...
creativename posted...
I would have picked Groose if I had known he was from a Zelda game (Zeldrones...!). Yoshimitsu is the only character I've heard of there though, and I'm guessing most voters have no clue who Groose is (Skyward Sword probably has the lowest playrate of any console Zelda since Zelda II).


Majora's Mask sold the fewest copies of any of the 8 main console Zelda's.


That'd doesn't necessarily mean much. 64 cartridges get re-sold all the time, plus other ways to play it(this also applies to SS obviously). Skyword Sword has the problem is that you need a special Wiimote, or add-on in order to play it.
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#45 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2013 7:07:32 PM | message detail
Match XLIII: (3) Yu Narukami vs. (16) Shadow the Hedgehog vs. (25) Kat

Previous Contest

Yu Narukami – N/A
N/A

Shadow the Hedgehog – 2010
47.41% against Amaterasu

Kat – N/A
N/A

Analysis

I know a lot of us have been burned by Shadow in the past, but I feel quite confident that he will win this match without too much trouble. Sure the last time we saw him he lost to Amaterasu, but she has proven to be a legit competitor and while Shadow may not be the strongest he is up against a Persona character and a character only available on the Vita.

I believe Yu Narukami will be stronger than Chie, but he would have to be a great deal stronger in order to threaten Shadow. Persona characters suffers from ensemble cast syndrome where it is hard for fans to back one character and you get a bunch of them with similar, but weak strength. Add the fact that Persona 4 is a weak game and you have the makings of a weak character.

Speaking of weak characters Kat could be among the weakest in this bracket. While she may be the strongest Vita-only character that is not saying much. She also appears in Playstation All-Stars, but she is a DLC so she is likely not to get much support from that.

Given his opponents Shadow could reach a high percentage, 50% should be a given and 60% is very possible should Yu and Kat be as weak as we think they are. Regardless of his performance not many people will consider Shadow a threat for next round given Leon will be waiting.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Shadow the Hedgehog > Yu Narukami and Kat

charmander6000’s Prediction: Shadow the Hedgehog – 57.94%, Yu Narukami – 29.22%, Kat – 12.84%
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#46 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/29/2013 7:30:21 PM | message detail
SBD/Missile/Chester, who you got?
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#47 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/29/2013 7:31:20 PM | message detail
Missile wins for being some random animal
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#48 | Achromatic | Posted 7/29/2013 7:31:28 PM | message detail
Missile with 70%
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#49 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/29/2013 7:32:04 PM | message detail
Missile easily.
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#50 | pjbasis | Posted 7/29/2013 7:38:30 PM | message detail
Fado is not a character from OoT, but Wind Waker.

Ghost Trick should be a step up from goemon and chester
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