Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1082

#401 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/29/2013 10:19:28 AM | message detail
meat boy's got that match
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#402 | xp1337 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:19:46 AM | message detail
I gained overwhelming confidence in Game and Watch after the Clementine match. >_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#403 | spooky96 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:20:45 AM | message detail
I'm banking on that match.

ib4lolcoward
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#404 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 10:21:57 AM | message detail
How can people possibly be conflicted on that match

RacistFAQs doesn't extend to G&W

probably
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#405 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 10:21:58 AM | message detail
No, they're exactly the type of counterexamples to cite, because that's what mainstream is nowadays. The old Nintendo classics, they're well-known, but I doubt the so-called mainstream no longer sees them as relevant. (Actually, I'm almost positive they don't. Cool, sure, because they're "retro", but not relevant to gaming in 2013.)

...Wait, that might just be it! I thought FFVI was still a little too recent for that, but then again it's not a hard-and-fast law, more like an estimate...Yeah. Given the quality of opponents Frog faced, I think his performance was a bit underwhelming, but Chrono Trigger's only at 18 years. Still a little early. But we're coming close to that 20-year mark where something stops being "old" and starts being "retro". FFVI came out in 1994, so it's still a little premature...but then again, don't things move faster in the gaming world? I mean, look at all of the PSX icons performing well. (Against weak competition, but still.) The PS4 and XBone aren't out yet, but they're coming soon, and the WiiU is already out, so the PSX and N64 are now three gaming generations ago. (Although I'm not sure why I even bothered mentioning the N64 since most of its signature games featured characters who originated on other systems. Quick, how many characters in the bracket had their debut game on the N64?

...six, and most of them were side characters in franchises that originated on an earlier Nintendo system. Epona, Spring Breeze Dancin', Waluigi, Banjo, Wolf, and Tingle.)
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#406 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:22:15 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
kinsho3 posted...
Anyway, what's the next debatable match? Sora/Scorpion? Lee Everett/G&W?

Was Magus/Otacon settled at some point?


Don't know
What I do know is that not having Magus in the next round won't matter
If Magus can't beat Otacon,Crono is not going anywhere near Pikachu even without Magus in the picture
#407 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 10:22:34 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I can't even begin to stress the amount of overwhelming confidence I have in G&W. I hedge on every single match like a mofo and I still can't possibly imagine him losing.


I honestly feel that Game & Watch being in last place is a greater possibility than him winning.

I know I said that earlier, but in between I felt that Game & Watch could win. Now though...

Magus vs. Otacon has been debated in the shadows methinks. I ultimately decided that since the characters are from Chrono Trigger and Metal Gear Solid - whose entrants are notorious for getting saved by the board at the last minute - I figured that we'd have a close match for the ages where the board would bail Magus out at the last minute. That being said, I picked Otacon in my bracket and will stick with him for Expert Challenge (until a few days ago it seemed that pretty much every time I changed from my initial pick I ended up losing out).
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#408 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:24:41 AM | message detail
So Zidane + Ridley vs Mewtwo + Zero which pair is stronger. I guess it's Zidane + Ridley? But by how much? Dancin may finish below 5% here.
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#409 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 10:24:52 AM | message detail
I'd take Ridley over Mr. Game & Watch.
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#410 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:26:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
Game & Watch match is going to be the most dangerous for the last zero bracket
This is the only match without a clear "not first" character
#411 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/29/2013 10:30:36 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
kinsho3 posted...
Anyway, what's the next debatable match? Sora/Scorpion? Lee Everett/G&W?

Was Magus/Otacon settled at some point?


lol otacon
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However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#412 | superange128 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:30:40 AM | message detail
well Mewtwo I'd take easily over Zidane and Ridley but Zidane and Ridley would destory 0 so overall Zidane/Ridley
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#413 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 10:31:58 AM | message detail
Magus can drop it to Otacon (though I severely doubt he will), and it'll only help Crono. Crono got revenge on Vincent and made it to the finals in the same year that Magus lost to a bag of sand, remember?
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#414 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/29/2013 10:32:36 AM | message detail
I think Lee Everett is a pretty clear not-first at this point, considering how much newer characters have been sucking and how Clementine didn't really impress.

Right now I'm kinda leaning Meat Boy to win, but honestly who the hell knows how Game and Watch will do. He might have Sandbag-level strength by acting as a sort of Smash mascot, or he may be pathetic because he really has nothing else going for him and isn't even that big a deal in those games.
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#415 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 10:32:55 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who finds it hilarious that Ridley currently has 88% on someone?
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#416 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 10:33:39 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
I think Lee Everett is a pretty clear not-first at this point, considering how much newer characters have been sucking and how Clementine didn't really impress.

Right now I'm kinda leaning Meat Boy to win, but honestly who the hell knows how Game and Watch will do. He might have Sandbag-level strength by acting as a sort of Smash mascot, or he may be pathetic because he really has nothing else going for him and isn't even that big a deal in those games.


But...but...Everett stands out in that match!
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#417 | xp1337 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:34:49 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
So Zidane + Ridley vs Mewtwo + Zero which pair is stronger. I guess it's Zidane + Ridley? But by how much? Dancin may finish below 5% here.

If we want Chester/Dancin comparisons, I think you need Mewtwo > Zidane to be around 80-20 or worse to replace Chester as the weakest character. But someone else can check that to be sure.

Either way, I'm taking Zidane/Ridley to be the stronger group.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#418 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:41:04 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.
#419 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 10:41:27 AM | message detail
Although as a very slight topic shift I'm absolutely floored even after all this time that the Dissidia games could do so much for these characters. Makes you wonder what Square could do if they ever got their act together.
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#420 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:42:21 AM | message detail
Dancin seems to be stabilizing at around 5.8%. If he got below 5% though we could have Zidane being worth 11 of him which would at least be worth considering vs Mewtwo being worth 23 Chesters I think.
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#421 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:43:20 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Game & Watch match is going to be the most dangerous for the last zero bracket
This is the only match without a clear "not first" character


Kat,Oliver and Albert,Hades and Simon
Sarah and Missile,Big Daddy and Lloyed,Jade
Aya,Kaim,Lu Bu,Lee Evrett(I dunno)
(I actually no idea about Pacman match)
Wolf,Sandbag and Isaac,Catherine
Seifer and Celes(actually this match is kinda dangerous,but there is SFF so no)
Bomberman and Tails,Roxas,Palutena
Pyramid Head,Claire Redfield,Cirno
Duke Nukem and Fawful,Marisa Kirisame,Guybrush Threepwood and Max Payne
Rayman and Commander Video,Adol Christin,Banjo
The King of All Cosmos,Corvo Attano and Sissel,Urdnot Wrex
Geno,Recette Lemongrass and Travis
Mike Haggar (yeah i'm giving Red Bird a chance!)
Boko,Lenneth Valkyrie,Lyndis
Sackboy,Falco Lombardi,Nier

So the only matches left a zero bracket can fall are Lee/Game/Meat,Pac/Steve/Nathan and Seifeir/Celes/Kunckles
#422 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/29/2013 10:44:26 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.


It never ceases to amaze me how the people who have the worst posts in these topics are also the people who constantly use pro-wrestling terms.

There must be a correlation between post quality and having the maturity level of a 13 year old.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#423 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:46:19 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.


It never ceases to amaze me how the people who have the worst posts in these topics are also the people who constantly use pro-wrestling terms.

There must be a correlation between post quality and having the maturity level of a 13 year old.


Turtle acting like a jerk again, bravo!!!
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#424 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:46:31 AM | message detail
Unless something very stupid goes on in those matches, all those have a clear not-first. Meat Boy, Steve and Celes are not winning their matches. I'd honestly feel less comfortable with Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu, because I'm not sure if the zero bracketmaker did his homework for how assy Yoshimitsu was.
#425 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 10:47:08 AM | message detail
JustForFun1988 posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.


It never ceases to amaze me how the people who have the worst posts in these topics are also the people who constantly use pro-wrestling terms.

There must be a correlation between post quality and having the maturity level of a 13 year old.


Turtle acting like a jerk again, bravo!!!


He is butthurt Zidane is winning
#426 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:47:58 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.


It never ceases to amaze me how the people who have the worst posts in these topics are also the people who constantly use pro-wrestling terms.

There must be a correlation between post quality and having the maturity level of a 13 year old.


Are you implying Yoblazer is a bad poster, Turtle? Because if so we're gonna have words. If you want to snipe at people, do it in a way that doesn't end up with good people caught in the crossfire. A simple 'haha look at this guy, he sucks' will do. Thanks.
#427 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/29/2013 10:50:08 AM | message detail
Turtle

why you gotta be like that

a turtle won its match yesterday, too

and you gotta be like that
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~Zen
#428 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:50:12 AM | message detail
I'm assuming a BlAck TurTLe is some obscure wrestling term about winning via surprise roll-up or something. Only way that post makes sense!
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#429 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 10:52:04 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
JustForFun1988 posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Yu beating Shadow would make my contest.


I think we're all in agreement about spamming Persona 4 quotes and Reach Out To The Truth (and Time To Make History) if Yu is even remotely close to pulling the upset, right? Because seriously, if there's one guy in the bracket who deserves marking out it's him.


It never ceases to amaze me how the people who have the worst posts in these topics are also the people who constantly use pro-wrestling terms.

There must be a correlation between post quality and having the maturity level of a 13 year old.


Turtle acting like a jerk again, bravo!!!


He is butthurt Zidane is winning


Along these lines if anyone's interested, assuming a constant Ridley, Zidane is now projected to cleanly beat the likes of Leon Kennedy, Sub-Zero, Alucard, and Vivi. <_<
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#430 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 10:58:26 AM | message detail
Ridley was probably overrated by the stats-- probably by fighting Cloud. These percentages aren't surprising me that much. I didn't look at that stats, just eyeballed it and thought Zidane probably ~= Diablo 2k5 at this point and Ridley has at best had a small boost since then.
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#431 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 11:00:03 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Tharja is by far the weakest in round 2 with only unrallied Draven possibly being weaker.


Yeah, probably.

LinkMarioSamus posted...
We should treat the rallies as a part of Draven's strength.

Also dear god no, Bayonetta would shoot Ridley out of the sky, though I'd guess he'd have as hard a time as Samus does fighting Ridley in her games.

Imagine if Ridley and Wander switched spots. We'd see Ridley gulp down N and Wander slay Spring Breeze.


Agreed on the first and third points but not the second. Ridley would easily win that match; that was an all-fodder match where it was essentially a battle of who was the least foddery. A recognizable character dating back to the earliest generations of gaming, with a Smash appearance? Easy win.

As for treating the rallies as part of Draven's strength, I definitely agree. I also want to posit something else, and there's really no way to prove it but it's definitely a theory to consider. Could Draven also have been getting anti-voted? Remember, saying that Draven was losing to Chie before the rally started is greatly understating it. Chie was far closer to Jak than she was to Draven before Draven's rally started--it took almost twice as long for Jak to build up a 1000-vote lead over her as it took for her to build up a 1000-vote lead over Draven.

Listed are some raw vote totals from various matches. Note that only two of these did not advance to the second round.

Dracula 13906
Sub-Zero 13612
Lugia 13362
Jak 13191
Altair 13157 (in a day match!)
Epona 12989
Ness 12979 (also a day match)
Phoenix Wright 11914
Kefka 11443 (this was a day match, too! Albeit one where the third-place finisher had over 29%)
Crash Bandicoot 11242
Ike 11023 (again, third place was good for almost 29%, but this was a day match)
Tharja 11016
Chie Satonaka 10465
Alucard 10242
Elizabeth 10217

Ain't it pretty? I've noticed that enthusiasm seems to be dying off in general--a lot of these were from more recent matches. I mean Tharja/Juliet/Tina broke 30000 while that super-exciting Alucard/Falcon/Rydia match came up well short. But, yeah, two characters have already advanced to the third round while drawing fewer raw votes than the third-place finisher in that match. Either they had strength in their own right, or there was some serious anti-voting going on before the fanbase countered it with a rally. That's still the only match thus far where the third-place finisher broke 10000, by the way; the next-best total by a third-place finisher was Ryu Hayabusa's 8955, followed close behind by Eggman's 8909 and then...um...Juliet Starling's 8651, the only others to break 8000.

Okay, yeah, TJF really does bring in the votes. Juliet Starling had the fourth-best total by a third-place finisher. Guess we should focus our rallying efforts for CBX on attractive female characters.

But back to the present. Can we take anything of meaning out of that Draven > Jak > Chie result? Like, maybe something that could be relevant in less than 12 hours?

...Yeah. It was inflated by the fact that the match was rallied, but Chie actually got a damn nice total. If P4 really does have that kind of strength, could we be overlooking Yu?
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#432 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/29/2013 11:00:52 AM | message detail
I think Ridley making it without support over Liquid and Jecht and others considered stronger than him says a lot

I don't even know who I'd take for Jecht vs Ridley now

I think Jecht?
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~Zen
#433 | Xuxon | Posted 7/29/2013 11:02:33 AM | message detail
Marth > Ridley and Jecht > Phoenix so yeah
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#434 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 11:03:05 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Ridley was probably overrated by the stats-- probably by fighting Cloud. These percentages aren't surprising me that much. I didn't look at that stats, just eyeballed it and thought Zidane probably ~= Diablo 2k5 at this point and Ridley has at best had a small boost since then.


Oh yeah Ridley's easily overrated, that's my point (or massive Other M Deboost are you kids hyped now). Most of us got this match right despite him being cleanly above Zidane in the stats.

But it's fun to thumb at those who don't like seeing Zidane so high
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#435 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 11:08:09 AM | message detail
I actually take Phoenix to beat Jecht in a rematch. Really think that's the kind of character who's just going to get stronger as his playership keeps slowly increasing.

Though yeah Jecht > Ridley.
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#436 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/29/2013 11:12:31 AM | message detail
Zidane was behind Mario/Ike SFF anyway, so using direct comparisons to Ridley there was already pretty messy.
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#437 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/29/2013 11:13:55 AM | message detail
Also, neat, Zidane's over 90% on SBD now.
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#438 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 11:15:04 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
I think Ridley making it without support over Liquid and Jecht and others considered stronger than him says a lot

I don't even know who I'd take for Jecht vs Ridley now

I think Jecht?


Using Ike/Zidane 2010 and setting Ike = Protoman projects Jecht to beat Ridley 56.5-43.5... he's got Dissidia too so I'd feel comfortable taking Jecht.
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#439 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 11:18:51 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Unless something very stupid goes on in those matches, all those have a clear not-first. Meat Boy, Steve and Celes are not winning their matches. I'd honestly feel less comfortable with Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu, because I'm not sure if the zero bracketmaker did his homework for how assy Yoshimitsu was.


So when people talk about Game & Watch match being debateable,they talk about him vs Lee?
I dunno,Meat Boy performance in the rivalry contest was fine (yeah I know this contest doesn't know,but this is the only data we got on...any of them)
As for Steve...I really don't know anything about Minecraft or it's popularity
Celes..yeah,but this is more like me talking out of fear because of the Kefka/Zack/Ryu match
#440 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/29/2013 11:21:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
Lopen posted...
I actually take Phoenix to beat Jecht in a rematch. Really think that's the kind of character who's just going to get stronger as his playership keeps slowly increasing.

Though yeah Jecht > Ridley.


I wonder where Phoenix theoretically would be strength wise if he had been in Brawl. Lower 30's?
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#441 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/29/2013 11:21:48 AM | message detail
how long is it going to take for SBD to Chester (get Chester's vote total)
#442 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/29/2013 11:22:50 AM | message detail
He looks on course to Chester around 5 PM EST, I think.
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#443 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 11:23:49 AM | message detail
As for what TsunamiXXVIII wrote
I don't think that Chie results show he was anti votes
It's just that more people voted in general,and while the majority prefered to vote for Draven (for obvious reasons) some of them also voted for Chie...
And because the vote totals are 9k more than the second most popular..it shows off
#444 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 11:24:15 AM | message detail
Wow. That is one beautiful results screen. Zidane and SBD both have the same number on both sides of the decimal point (5.5% for SBD and 51.51% for Zidane), and Ridley's percentage has no decimal point.
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#445 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 11:26:50 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Unless something very stupid goes on in those matches, all those have a clear not-first. Meat Boy, Steve and Celes are not winning their matches. I'd honestly feel less comfortable with Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu, because I'm not sure if the zero bracketmaker did his homework for how assy Yoshimitsu was.


So when people talk about Game & Watch match being debateable,they talk about him vs Lee?
I dunno,Meat Boy performance in the rivalry contest was fine (yeah I know this contest doesn't know,but this is the only data we got on...any of them)
As for Steve...I really don't know anything about Minecraft or it's popularity
Celes..yeah,but this is more like me talking out of fear because of the Kefka/Zack/Ryu match


Yes, it was supposed to be Lee vs G&W. Meat Boy was never in the match.
#446 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 11:28:13 AM | message detail
Also: SBD's last ten updates:

12
16
16
12
14
12
12
12
13
12

That's...pretty consistent, I guess. Getting the same exact total on six out of ten updates is pretty cool.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#447 | Lopen | Posted 7/29/2013 11:29:11 AM | message detail
I just realized the map looks like Christmas. Nice to see. Rare to see blue have no sway on the map at all.
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#448 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 11:31:16 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Nanis23 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Unless something very stupid goes on in those matches, all those have a clear not-first. Meat Boy, Steve and Celes are not winning their matches. I'd honestly feel less comfortable with Groose/Lu Bu/Yoshimitsu, because I'm not sure if the zero bracketmaker did his homework for how assy Yoshimitsu was.


So when people talk about Game & Watch match being debateable,they talk about him vs Lee?
I dunno,Meat Boy performance in the rivalry contest was fine (yeah I know this contest doesn't know,but this is the only data we got on...any of them)
As for Steve...I really don't know anything about Minecraft or it's popularity
Celes..yeah,but this is more like me talking out of fear because of the Kefka/Zack/Ryu match


Yes, it was supposed to be Lee vs G&W. Meat Boy was never in the match.


I agree that Meat Boy's RR performance was cause for concern, but yeah, the original question was Lee/G&W. Now that it looks fairly safe to call it a G&W win...what does that do to Round 2? Remember, the final match of that division has nothing but Nintendo characters, so a Game & Watch win sets up another "two Nintendo, one non-Nintendo" match no matter what.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#449 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 11:55:01 AM | message detail | (edited)
Lopen posted...
I just realized the map looks like Christmas. Nice to see. Rare to see blue have no sway on the map at all.


Yeah, only other time that's happened thus far, I think, was Chester's match, but red wasn't doing much better there. We've still yet to see any contestant fail to take even one country/self-governing dependency/whatever, although the map for Big Boss/Peacock/Viridian doesn't have any red on it because Viridian's only outright win was the Isle of Man. Chester also had only one outright win, in Myanmar, but of course, as the blue option, three other countries/dependencies/protectorates/etc. were in his color, one a three-way tie and the others, oddly enough, countries where he tied with Zero for the lead.

Pretty sure Spring Breeze Dancin' won't get shut out, either. The only country on the map where he's leading is South Korea, which seems like too big a country to end up on such a weak character's path, but when you look at the source code, he's also got 100% of the vote from a country that has only voted in 5 of the previous 41 matches. Even if that's only one vote, the fact that 36 of the previous 41 matches have seen no votes come out of Guadeloupe makes me think that it's unlikely someone else will show up to allow Zidane or Ridley to tie it up.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#450 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 11:39:46 AM | message detail
If we can see the % each place has,why can't we see the amount of votes...? why hide it?