Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1082

#301 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/29/2013 9:23:28 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I'll say... three more updates without a Ridley cut before we restart the Squirtle hype train again.


I'm on no sleep right now so I'm probably missing something obvious, but what the heck does Ridley have to do with Squirtle?


Well, Ridley being in that match probably clinches it for Dante. There might not be much SFF, but there will be more Ridley overlap with Squirtle than Dante.
#302 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:28 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I'll say... three more updates without a Ridley cut before we restart the Squirtle hype train again.


I'm on no sleep right now so I'm probably missing something obvious, but what the heck does Ridley have to do with Squirtle?


Apart from monsters like Mario/Link/Samus, Nintendo characters have demonstrated in the past that they have difficulty splitting the vote with other Nintendo characters in multi-way polls. Ridley would have really Squirtle against Dante, perhaps making the win unattainable. Now that that SCARY THOUGHT seems to have kindly removed itself, I'm feeling thrilled with Squirtle's chances.

Oh crap, MASSIVE UPDATE FOR ZIDANE.

SPRING BREEZE DANCIN VOTE TIME
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#303 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:32 AM | message detail
YEAH RIDLEY SUCK IT
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#304 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:34 AM | message detail
Wow huge gains for Zidane.. that split was almost +90
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#305 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:35 AM | message detail
I just realized: this is only Ridley's fourth contest, and yet it's his second one where he loses to a Final Fantasy IX character in Round 1.

Ridley = Necron confirmed.
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#306 | Achromatic | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:42 AM | message detail
...

That update jesus christ.
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#307 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:43 AM | message detail
Ouch
Poor Ridley
#308 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:47 AM | message detail
BOOM.

Headshot.
#309 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:52 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
If Ridley can keep this in the 300-400ish range, a comeback isn't out of the question. This should basically have the same trends Ike/Proto had.


Nah, reversed trends from that. Zidane is way more ace with the night than Ike, he's not jobbing if he has a lead late. Hell, he can probably come back at the last second, unlike Protoman.
#310 | spooky96 | Posted 7/29/2013 9:24:59 AM | message detail
Wooops that was a huge jump
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#311 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:25:03 AM | message detail
Squirtle already looks like the statistical un-favorite against Dante. Adding Ridley to the mix would be no good for him.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#312 | kirbyparufo | Posted 7/29/2013 9:25:34 AM | message detail
SBD lost another .5%. D:
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#313 | Korayashi | Posted 7/29/2013 9:25:39 AM | message detail
Clearly all of Ridley's nintendo votes are being devoured by Spring Breeze Dancin'
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#314 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/29/2013 9:25:53 AM | message detail
Zidane tail slaps Ridley right out of the match. Wow.
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#315 | Xuxon | Posted 7/29/2013 9:26:19 AM | message detail
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that
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#316 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 9:26:23 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I'll say... three more updates without a Ridley cut before we restart the Squirtle hype train again.


I'm on no sleep right now so I'm probably missing something obvious, but what the heck does Ridley have to do with Squirtle?


Apart from monsters like Mario/Link/Samus, Nintendo characters have demonstrated in the past that they have difficulty splitting the vote with other Nintendo characters in multi-way polls. Ridley would have really Squirtle against Dante, perhaps making the win unattainable. Now that that SCARY THOUGHT seems to have kindly removed itself, I'm feeling thrilled with Squirtle's chances.

Oh crap, MASSIVE UPDATE FOR ZIDANE.

SPRING BREEZE DANCIN VOTE TIME


Oh right, ninty overlap hurr

I disagree with Squirtle having any shot, but it certainly makes a lot of sense to feel better about the turtle if Ridley is out of the way.
#317 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/29/2013 9:26:32 AM | message detail
What the crap just happened? Zidane nearly doubles his lead in one update, this far in?

Nice little 3.75% update for SBD.
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#318 | vcharon | Posted 7/29/2013 9:27:14 AM | message detail
Random Zidane destruction on that update, geez.
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#319 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:27:36 AM | message detail
As far as stats going, I think a combination of Ridley being less relevant and being overrated against Cloud is in order.

Old Square characters have been surprisingly resilient this year, and by that I mean Go Cecil.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#320 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:27:44 AM | message detail
This makes Ridley look realllllll overrated if you ask me
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#321 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/29/2013 9:27:47 AM | message detail
Now to wait for R2 pic instructions so that I can sabotage Dante.
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#322 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:28:38 AM | message detail
Time to submit a Wartortle pic for Squirtle R2 and see if Bacon notices
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#323 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/29/2013 9:28:49 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that


Losing 53-47 (which this will probably end up being) is a LOT closer to Ridley's number on Cloud than his past stats.
#324 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/29/2013 9:29:18 AM | message detail
Nice cut by Ridley
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#325 | Achromatic | Posted 7/29/2013 9:29:50 AM | message detail
Welp, RIP me trying to use logic based off previous contest results.

On the flip side Cecil is going to murder Pit.
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#326 | vcharon | Posted 7/29/2013 9:30:00 AM | message detail
Rad_Dudesman posted...
Nice cut by Ridley


There was no cut
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:>
#327 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:30:13 AM | message detail
Rad_Dudesman posted...
Nice cut by Ridley


the legendary -50 vote cuts
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#328 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/29/2013 9:31:05 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Xuxon posted...
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that


Losing 53-47 (which this will probably end up being) is a LOT closer to Ridley's number on Cloud than his past stats.


Are you aware of where Zidane actually is at least in the x stats?
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#329 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/29/2013 9:31:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, Pit is one of those choices I regretted as soon as the bracket was locked. I never felt good about it but put my faith in Nintendo.
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#330 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/29/2013 9:33:25 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Welp, RIP me trying to use logic based off previous contest results.

On the flip side Cecil is going to murder Pit.


I wouldn't call it logic, really. This isn't a diss, just noting that Ridley beating Zidane seems like a Samus>Mario thing. The stats can say one thing, but past contest outings never lie, and Ridley's never done anything to show that he hasn't remained the washed up hack he was in 2k5. Stats should always be tempered by the eyeball test.
#331 | Qwaar | Posted 7/29/2013 9:34:48 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Yeah, Pit is one of those choices I regretted as soon as the bracket was locked. I never felt good about it but put my faith in Nintendo.


Don't feel too bad, I have Wrex in my main bracket...
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#332 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 9:35:16 AM | message detail
Pit could still impress though. Remember how well Captain Olimar did in his match, which marked the first time he got away from other Nintendo characters? Same with Pit here.

Also Cecil has the least casual appeal out of every character in that match.
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#333 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:35:20 AM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Xuxon posted...
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that


Losing 53-47 (which this will probably end up being) is a LOT closer to Ridley's number on Cloud than his past stats.


Are you aware of where Zidane actually is at least in the x stats?


As of right now, assuming Ike v Zidane 2010 holds and setting Ike = Protoman, Ridley is currently projected to get 41% on his 2010 self.
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#334 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:35:29 AM | message detail
I saw the Pit/Cecil match and just went "Would Pit beat Knuckles?"

I'd be really surprised if Cecil dropped that at this point.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#335 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/29/2013 9:35:49 AM | message detail
I expected Pit to be around Ike level now and blocked out the memory of Cecil almost beating Knuckles.
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#336 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:36:12 AM | message detail
I would never take Pit over someone like Ike.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#337 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:36:20 AM | message detail
I wanted to take Cecil. I took Zidane. I took Kefka. But I couldn't shake my irrational superstition that this contest just *hates* Cecil.
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#338 | Achromatic | Posted 7/29/2013 9:36:25 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Achromatic posted...
Welp, RIP me trying to use logic based off previous contest results.

On the flip side Cecil is going to murder Pit.


I wouldn't call it logic, really. This isn't a diss, just noting that Ridley beating Zidane seems like a Samus>Mario thing. The stats can say one thing, but past contest outings never lie, and Ridley's never done anything to show that he hasn't remained the washed up hack he was in 2k5. Stats should always be tempered by the eyeball test.


No I couldn't care less about the stats, I just meant the previous matches of THIS contest. Nintendo had been beating up on Square a bit.
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#339 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/29/2013 9:37:04 AM | message detail
Come on man, you can't compare any Nintendo/Square match with an inter-company, inter-fanbase match like Mario/Samus. No one truly knew where these guys stood and an argument could have been made for either one. Is a guy assuming that the Dissidia boost (which very likely helped Zidane) could have mostly dissipated since early 2010 "clearly wrong"? There was no way to know.
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#340 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 9:37:24 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
MarioSuperstar posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Xuxon posted...
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that


Losing 53-47 (which this will probably end up being) is a LOT closer to Ridley's number on Cloud than his past stats.


Are you aware of where Zidane actually is at least in the x stats?


As of right now, assuming Ike v Zidane 2010 holds and setting Ike = Protoman, Ridley is currently projected to get 41% on his 2010 self.


We also have no idea where the heck Zidane was in 2010 since he was stuck behind Mario/Ike SFF.
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#341 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/29/2013 9:37:25 AM | message detail
I'm actually real curious to see how Kefka/Zidane/Cecil all relate to each other in strength since they have the most notable Dissidia boosts I believe? I'd probably go Kefka > Cecil > Zidane.
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#342 | Xuxon | Posted 7/29/2013 9:37:37 AM | message detail
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:28:49 PM | #323
Xuxon posted...
From: FranzyvonKarma | Posted: 7/29/2013 12:23:15 PM | #300
For what it's worth, this match is making Ridley's performance on Cloud look fairly legit.

okay, i'm really curious as to how anyone could think that


Losing 53-47 (which this will probably end up being) is a LOT closer to Ridley's number on Cloud than his past stats.

it really isn't, at all. he got 38% on Vivi and was projected at 30% on Ganon. those numbers are super close to each other and are way closer to this result than the Cloud number is.
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#343 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:38:00 AM | message detail
Dissidia boost disappearing is the only thing I was worried about when taking guys like Cecil, but I figured/hoped it would stick around. So far, it's paid off.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#344 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:38:12 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Achromatic posted...
Welp, RIP me trying to use logic based off previous contest results.

On the flip side Cecil is going to murder Pit.


I wouldn't call it logic, really. This isn't a diss, just noting that Ridley beating Zidane seems like a Samus>Mario thing. The stats can say one thing, but past contest outings never lie, and Ridley's never done anything to show that he hasn't remained the washed up hack he was in 2k5. Stats should always be tempered by the eyeball test.


No I couldn't care less about the stats, I just meant the previous matches of THIS contest. Nintendo had been beating up on Square a bit.


1. those are still stats
2. ...what matches
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#345 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2013 9:39:34 AM | message detail
People here seem to have a strange aversion to stats. Stats have actually predicted most of this contest very well, outside of FF7 sucking and this very match. Remember the Ike/Protoman and Falcon/Alucard matches everyone was freaking out about? Stats predicted em. You just gotta know when to use them, and when someone might drop a big overrated dragon turd like Ridley is.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#346 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2013 9:39:40 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Come on man, you can't compare any Nintendo/Square match with an inter-company, inter-fanbase match like Mario/Samus. No one truly knew where these guys stood and an argument could have been made for either one. Is a guy assuming that the Dissidia boost (which very likely helped Zidane) could have mostly dissipated since early 2010 "clearly wrong"? There was no way to know.


counterpoint

why was this match debated, Zidane was the obvious choice
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#347 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 9:40:18 AM | message detail
It just occurred to me that Zidane got only 64% or so on Claptrap last contest. In hindsight...

...then again, Ridley and Claptrap having a close match makes sense. I mean, Borderlands is more mainstream than Metroid right? And Claptrap is more prominent in "his" games compared to Ridley, right?
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#348 | Achromatic | Posted 7/29/2013 9:40:31 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Achromatic posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Achromatic posted...
Welp, RIP me trying to use logic based off previous contest results.

On the flip side Cecil is going to murder Pit.


I wouldn't call it logic, really. This isn't a diss, just noting that Ridley beating Zidane seems like a Samus>Mario thing. The stats can say one thing, but past contest outings never lie, and Ridley's never done anything to show that he hasn't remained the washed up hack he was in 2k5. Stats should always be tempered by the eyeball test.


No I couldn't care less about the stats, I just meant the previous matches of THIS contest. Nintendo had been beating up on Square a bit.


1. those are still stats
2. ...what matches


1. He mentioned Ridley's previous performances, those are what I meant by "stats." Matches thus far aren't actually stats yet, they are polls. The stats happen when we do all the math at the end.

2. Locke/Ness and Kirby/Terra.

I mean hey I was wrong to switch "oh well" one for my normal bracket not one for my expert.
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#349 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/29/2013 9:41:11 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
People here seem to have a strange aversion to stats. Stats have actually predicted most of this contest very well, outside of FF7 sucking and this very match. Remember the Ike/Protoman and Falcon/Alucard matches everyone was freaking out about? Stats predicted em. You just gotta know when to use them, and when someone might drop a big overrated dragon turd like Ridley is.


The thing is, we use stats one way or another. Whether it's the actual x-stats or just extrapolation through "Would <x> character get xx% on <x>?"

That's all x-stats really is. Comparing characters through matches and matches.
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#350 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/29/2013 9:41:30 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
People here seem to have a strange aversion to stats. Stats have actually predicted most of this contest very well, outside of FF7 sucking and this very match. Remember the Ike/Protoman and Falcon/Alucard matches everyone was freaking out about? Stats predicted em. You just gotta know when to use them, and when someone might drop a big overrated dragon turd like Ridley is.


If that's the case, Prinny's power performance on Cloud should have been an indication that Ridley was a fraud waiting to be exposed.
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