Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1082

#51 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:01:05 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Well Duke did get an amazing pic against Charizard too (AMERICA)

I also think Duke boosted a bit since 2004. Probably not 7 points but 2 or 3 wouldn't surprise me


Yeah, I can respect saying that Duke could've boosted from becoming more of a joke and nostalgia a couple points, but seriously, gaining enough to go from the Vyse fodder line back when it mattered to literally being equal to Red? Are we really saying Duke Nukem has a dogfight with Red, beats Ocelot, and hangs up a percentage on Link similar to Alucard? Really? Duke is just not that strong, sorry. I'm a big fan of him and I don't believe it. Charizard is a huge bust waiting to fall, and though he has a lucky bracket path I'm not sold on him winning his division at all.
#52 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:01:18 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Also Zen you were thinking of making a list of characters in this contest that could potentially miss the next contest.

If the next contest is a 128 character bracket then everyone seeded 15-27 (except 2 characters) would have missed the contest, anyone seeded 11-14 would be in likely danger of missing as well then you have to consider characters with board rallies (NRT, guru, independent).


http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/New_Characters#Characters_That_Should_Return

that's kind of a combo of "characters we need back" and "characters we might lose"

I gave you credit, too!
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#53 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:03:08 PM | message detail
I'd take Duke to beat Ocelot and Red. I had no idea they were that high, either! Who overrated those two.
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#54 | Lilligant | Posted 7/28/2013 10:03:38 PM | message detail
Damnit, I was just about to catch up to Devin's expert score, but I forgot to fill out my picks for today.
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#55 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/28/2013 10:04:22 PM | message detail
Looks like my expectation of Squirtle being the bracket-breaker Pokemon is going to pan out.
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#56 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:05:12 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I'd take Duke to beat Ocelot and Red. I had no idea they were that high, either! Who overrated those two.


Man I dunno. I'd take Duke to beat Ocelot but not Red, and I can't explain why. I feel like if you ran Red/Ocelot again Red wins with way more room to spare.
#57 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:05:39 PM | message detail
everyone is looking to the left in the results page

it's freaking me out
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#58 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:07:39 PM | message detail
Yeah I'd be scared of Duke vs Red because I think it'd be close and if it's close and you're betting against b8 well... let's just say they have "methods" to turn a match. Would probably take Duke at night Red during the day.
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#59 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:08:00 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Also Zen you were thinking of making a list of characters in this contest that could potentially miss the next contest.

If the next contest is a 128 character bracket then everyone seeded 15-27 (except 2 characters) would have missed the contest, anyone seeded 11-14 would be in likely danger of missing as well then you have to consider characters with board rallies (NRT, guru, independent).

Not entirely true, since part of (if not most of) the 8 seed probably had lower nominations than those in, like, the 15/16 seeds. And we'll never know where the 3 seeds would have fallen, but they wouldn't have all been so high, either.

It's a good general principle, though.
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#60 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:08:41 PM | message detail
Squirtle now getting 85.37% on the Denton

Mario got 83.54%

i know it doesn't mean much and he'll come down

but it's pretty to look at
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#61 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:08:50 PM | message detail
Incidentally, funny thing: If you go with Lopen's theory that Duke boosted 2 or 3 points since 2k4 thanks to nostalgia, joke votes and MURRIKA, and adjust Charizard down accordingly...he ends up RIGHT in striking range of Dante. Just how much do you think Charizard gets on Squirtle in a SFFless head to head match? Because I certainly don't feel confident giving 'Zard anything less than a 57-43 win, minimum.
#62 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/28/2013 10:09:18 PM | message detail
Squirtle Squad checking in.

Ready to bust some brackets up next round.
#63 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:13:09 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also, here's that aforementioned list in case it helps at all. While I'd take a bunch of these to pass the VFL, Kairi, Jecht, and maybe Tina are the only ones I think "deserve" to return. I'd love to see Bidoof again, especially after he beat LFF'd Zelda, but we've got plenty enough Pokemon who can actually go deep in a contest.

Rad Link 5 posted...
List of characters to have only appeared in a single contest, and won a match. Or to have advanced out of their match.

Win/Advance/Loss

Tina Armstrong - 1/0/1 (2002)
Kyo Kusanagi - 1/0/1 (2002)
Strider - 1/0/1 (2002)
Serious Sam - 1/0/1 (2002)
Sigma - 1/0/1 (2005 Villains)
Dr. Wily - 1/0/1 (2005 Villains)
Lavos - 1/0/1 (2005 Villains)
Master Hand - 1/0/1 (2005 Villains)
Kairi - 1/0/1 (2006)
Bidoof - 0/1/1 (2007)
Lucario - 0/1/1 (2008)
Hogger - 0/1/1 (2008)
Jecht - 2/0/1 (2010)

Decided to count the villain battle just because it's kind of a short list without them, and counting it doesn't eliminate anyone from the list. Did not count the Rivalry Rumble, however. If I did count it, it would take Lavos and Wily off the list, and add the following:

Bartz - 1/0/1
King K. Rool - 1/0/1
Orochi (Okami) - 1/0/1
Zeus (God of War) - 1/0/1
Chell - 1/0/1
Blinky - 1/0/1

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#64 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:12:04 PM | message detail
There's no way Duke Nukem Forever didn't s*** all over Duke's potential

That bubble burst so hard

the game was absolute crap. The best thing Duke had going for him was the DNF jokes/anticipation

Like, even if the game was just "kinda OK," he wouldn't have been hit that hard. But it was TERRIBLE. So bad that the collector's edition is now like $5 at GameStop and they STILL can't get rid of them.
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#65 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 10:15:16 PM | message detail
Eh, if it weren't Dante I don't think we'd be giving Squirtle so much benefit of the doubt. Even I'm still gun shy... but this isn't as good as what Dante put up to me, not with the data we have available.

Dante still has to actually go out and win one, but he looks like he can do it.
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#66 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:19:04 PM | message detail
oh cool thanks RL Imma use all that list to add to my list

also, someone figured out in the other topic:

Lucario first appeared in his movie, and didn't get a game appearance until a Mystery Dungeon game a few months later.

So the new rule (because Bacon f***ed up) is that if your anime/manga/show/movie/book was developed concurrently with a game, then the character is now eligible for the contest. I think. We can push the mistake on Bacon to slip some Digimon in the contest or something.
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#67 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:19:37 PM | message detail
why do you guys want Digimon in this contest

they'd suck
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#68 | VideoboysaysCube | Posted 7/28/2013 10:20:02 PM | message detail
Welp, only way Squirtle wins next round now is if he has his shades and Dante gets his DmC pic.
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#69 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:20:40 PM | message detail
It's not that we WANT Digimon in the contest

we just like getting bacon to bend the rules

It'd be more of a "HA! WE DID IT!" and then we'd forget about it after Greymon bombs
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#70 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:20:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
why do you guys want Digimon in this contest

they'd suck


I could say the same for Pokemon, and yet...!
#71 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:21:24 PM | message detail
Oh also it means we can get Strider back in, yay

Now that he has a new game coming out maybe he'll do just as well as he did back in 2002 (ehhhhh)
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#72 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:21:35 PM | message detail
Also this means Strider will be back next contest

Let's get all the MvC1 cast in next contest gents
#73 | TyrekeEvans13 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:21:54 PM | message detail
Squirtle keeps fading away

What % does he need to keep for striking range against Dante?
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#74 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:22:13 PM | message detail
DAMN YOU ZENNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Also I expect Strider will do significantly better if we have a contest next year, compared to 2k2. UMvC3 kinda helps a mans a bunch.
#75 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:22:13 PM | message detail
oh come on let's not act like Pokemon and Digimon were ever in the same league
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#76 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 10:22:26 PM | message detail
what the f*** is a greymon

is this what contests have been reduced to, this brave new world
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#77 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:22:26 PM | message detail
This also means Strider can return, as well.
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#78 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:22:58 PM | message detail
Hey guys, do you want to try getting Strider back in next time?
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#79 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:23:00 PM | message detail
I'm hoping Strider will perform admirably. He's just so damn cool. He's like shing shing waaatchaaaaaa robot tiger
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#80 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 10:23:02 PM | message detail
I haven't heard anything about Digimon. The Pokemon are far and away the best "new" characters we can get into the contest. We're in a situation right now where Squirtle has a great shot at beating a character who has been top 20-30 for years, and Squirtle probably isn't even the strongest representative in his own evolutionary line.

Snorlax
Mew
Gyarados
Meowth
Gengar

and many others. There's so much potential there.
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#81 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:23:09 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
oh come on let's not act like Pokemon and Digimon were ever in the same league


They don't have to be for one of the primary Digimon to be worth something. Nobody's saying we should nominate Japan-only Digimon or whatever here!
#82 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:23:57 PM | message detail
Bleh, if our only recourse is to glut up this contest with Pokemon, it might be time to call it a day.
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#83 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 10:24:37 PM | message detail
TyrekeEvans13 posted...
Squirtle keeps fading away

What % does he need to keep for striking range against Dante?


What do you consider 'striking range'? Dante's more or less projected to get 54% on the Squirt right now assuming Ramza = Laharl, if you're going with that ball of yarn.
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#84 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:00 PM | message detail
After a nearly three year hiatus, the Pokemon Battle is back, bigger than ever, and ready to crown (Link) a new "Greatest Pokemon Ever."
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#85 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:05 PM | message detail
To be fair Lucario was announced to be in a game before his movie appearance.
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#86 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:14 PM | message detail
That's not our only recourse, it's just probably the strongest pool of untapped characters we have out there. New characters will only do well if they get entire series and ad dollars pumped into them (Shepard, Drake, Kratos), and the Square line of strength is growing thinner. We're still having fun matches now, aren't we?!
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#87 | vcharon | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:44 PM | message detail
Squritle will probably bleed percentage all night long, so it really is whether or not you think Raz/Laharl is stronger than Ramza/Denton. I'm not sure who is stronger there really, it ought to be about even honestly. But Squirtle could easily finish under 60% following the night vote. Kind of a disappointing performance really, at least for Pokemon, who I put on a God Tier nowadays.
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#88 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:48 PM | message detail
We could always try pushing Bacon to let Wreck-It Ralph in

His game was developed alongside the movie! He had multiple games! The movie was based on a fake game that was made into a real game! A real game released BEFORE the movie!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/iphone/677421-fix-it-felix-jr
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#89 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:26:56 PM | message detail
We should all nominate Wreck-It Ralph just to make Bacon mad
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#90 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:27:03 PM | message detail
Oh man if the contest changed its name to Pokemon Battle and had all Pokemon, and Link was still in it for some reason and won it would almost make it worth it.
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#91 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:27:19 PM | message detail
Oh son of a

Zen, you're in full-on Jakyl mode right now. It's unreal.
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#92 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:27:28 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
To be fair Lucario was announced to be in a game before his movie appearance.


And Strider was announced to be in a game before his Manga appearance, but Ceej still banned him!

IT'S ALL ABOUT BENDING THE RULES, CHARMY

PLAY ALONG
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#93 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:27:55 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Oh son of a

Zen, you're in full-on Jakyl mode right now. It's unreal.



oh my god you are moving up the list so fast

SOOOO FAST
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#94 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 10:28:42 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
We're still having fun matches now, aren't we?!


Yeah, so let's not overdo it! There's such a thing as oversaturation!
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#95 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:29:19 PM | message detail
Get a room you two
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#96 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:29:50 PM | message detail
Hah, the game has to have been made concurrently with the movie? So... who wants to be the guy who compiles a list of recent shovelware titles released as tie-ins to movies? >.>
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#97 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:30:08 PM | message detail
we have a room, do you want to come in

it's got a spinning heart-shaped bed~~
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#98 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:31:32 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
To be fair Lucario was announced to be in a game before his movie appearance.


It isn't in the contest but I would imagine Ho-oh would be allowed and it appeared in the anime way before GSC.
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#99 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 10:31:47 PM | message detail
only if it's actually a luvdisc shaped bed

cause Pokemon's sweeping the nation these days
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#100 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 10:32:27 PM | message detail
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