Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1082

#1 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 9:36:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09vVF-Hvykg

Look at my list, my list is amazing: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/New_Characters

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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~Zen
#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 9:34:05 PM | message detail
#3 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:37:49 PM | message detail | (edited)
YET AGAIN, here is the list of Pokemon we have on the list of potential newcomers for next contest:

Blastoise, Blaziken, Bulbasaur, Ditto, Dragonite,
Eevee, Gardevoir, Gyarados, Ivysaur, Meowth, Mew,
Pichu, Poliwhirl, Psyduck, Raichu, Rayquaza,
Salamence, Scyther, Snorlax, Togepi, Typholsion,
Umbreon, Zubat

Brock, Ethan, Giovanni, Lance, Misty, Nurse Joy,
Professor Oak, Silver


If anyone wants to add/remove one, give a reason why (a good reason at this point is "f*** that pokemon") and I'll alter it

full list here: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/New_Characters
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~Zen
#4 | 14_and_counting | Posted 7/28/2013 9:38:21 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
YET AGAIN, here is the list of Pokemon we have on the list of potential newcomers for next contest:

Blastoise, Blaziken, Bulbasaur, Ditto, Dragonite,
Eevee, Gardevoir, Gyarados, Ivysaur, Meowth, Mew,
Pichu, Poliwhirl, Psyduck, Raichu, Rayquaza,
Salamence, Scyther, Snorlax, Togepi, Typholsion,
Umbreon, Zubat

Brock, Ethan, Giovanni, Lance, Misty, Nurse Joy,
Professor Oak, Silver


If anyone wants to add/remove them, give a good reason why (a good reason at this point is "f*** that pokemon") and I'll alter it

full list here: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/New_Characters


Is Gold not his official name, since Silver is after all, Silver?
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#5 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:39:00 PM | message detail
Meowty, Rayquaza, and Oak are the way to go

Professor Oak 2015 champ
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#6 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/28/2013 9:39:00 PM | message detail
No Venusaur? Can't say I'm not surprised though. The best of the original starters can't also claim to be the most popular. That just wouldn't be fair.
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#7 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:39:23 PM | message detail
Who the f*** is Ethan
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#8 | 14_and_counting | Posted 7/28/2013 9:40:46 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Who the f*** is Ethan


Gold's anime name. Which means it is pretty good chance it IS his official name, since everyone elses anime name is their real name after Red and Blue....

I just thought it was Gold though.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#9 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:40:53 PM | message detail
Originally I had down "Pokemon Trainer Gold" but it turns out his new canon name is Ethan

we can still nom Gold and Bacon prob wouldn't notice
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~Zen
#10 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:41:55 PM | message detail
Does the anime really matter though.

At the very least I think he gains like 10% just by being named Gold
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#11 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:42:42 PM | message detail
We just don't tell Bacon he's supposed to be Ethan, then. I'll change his name back to Gold and we'll speak no more of this.
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~Zen
#12 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 9:42:57 PM | message detail
We really don't need to find out if the trainer does better as Gold or Ethan.
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#13 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 9:43:30 PM | message detail
He would do better as Gold, but he wouldn't do well regardless.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#14 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:44:12 PM | message detail
yeah I think we can safely skip "Ethan"
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For your SuperNiceDog.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
#15 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:45:00 PM | message detail
I am suggesting for the next contest that the only characters allowed in are Pokemon. Who is the most popular Pokemon on GameFAQs out of the 1,000 that exist now?
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Operation Rainfall: Three for Three
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#16 | backinblack167 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:45:27 PM | message detail
I feel like Garchomp should be on that list.
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#17 | 14_and_counting | Posted 7/28/2013 9:45:38 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Does the anime really matter though.

At the very least I think he gains like 10% just by being named Gold


I mean, yeah, it does. The canon name of all the video game characters (Now that Gold is Canon Ethan) after Red and Blue is their anime name. That's probably not a coincidence.
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#18 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:46:24 PM | message detail
It's true that we really don't need Pokemon humans from beyong Gen 1.

Brock, Misty, Giovanni, Oak, and Lance would all destroy N.
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#19 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/28/2013 9:47:47 PM | message detail
Goddamn, Squirtle
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#20 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:48:11 PM | message detail
The thing about saying Squirtle should drop to 57% and could even drop to 55%... it's not really that far off from what he's getting now. His average throwing out the first 10 minutes is like 59%. FFT + Deus Ex could just win the night vote by a small amount to drop it that far.
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#21 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:48:17 PM | message detail
They were equal in 2008, Laharl has had more reason to become stronger since then. Feeling pretty good about Dante, though I always thought the match would be one of those close, but never in danger types.
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Points: 34/40 Today's Picks: Squirtle and Zidane
#22 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:49:50 PM | message detail
Feeling pretty good about Dante right now. So long as nobody gets cute with a DmC pic, he seems ready to rock the house.
#23 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:12 PM | message detail
Man what a monstrous drop.

Feels good
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#24 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:29 PM | message detail
Dante could quite possibly beat Charizard so i don't get why everyone is overrating the hell out of Squirtle.
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#25 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:36 PM | message detail
Since Update 2, Squirtle has done nothing but lose percentage.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#26 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:48 PM | message detail
14_and_counting posted...
The canon name of all the video game characters (Now that Gold is Canon Ethan) after Red and Blue is their anime name.


Never heard of this. Source or example?
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#27 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:50 PM | message detail
BTW, Gold's "anime name" is not Ethan, it's Jimmy.

http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Jimmy_%28Johto%29

Ethan is his canon game name.
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#28 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:50:58 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
They were equal in 2008, Laharl has had more reason to become stronger since then. Feeling pretty good about Dante, though I always thought the match would be one of those close, but never in danger types.


Specifically, Laharl has been in a minimum of like four games AND he has a game specifically centered on him coming out soonish (Disgaea D2 if you're curious). He really, really should just clearly beat Ramza no matter how big or small the votebase becomes at this point.
#29 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:51:15 PM | message detail
Alright I added Garchomp

are there any other Pokemon that are above the Vyse fodder line

...Are all of them above the Vyse fodder line?
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~Zen
#30 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 9:51:26 PM | message detail
I would not take Dante over Charizard (or Blastoise). There was a bandwagon and all, but Charizard's performances on Bowser and Mario just seemed too good even when factoring that in.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#31 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:51:59 PM | message detail
Kairi should probably be added to the list of characters who should return. I noticed she was one of the characters who had only one contest appearance and at least one win when I was putting together my list, earlier. She looked pretty solid. Around the same strength as all the other secondary Kingdom Hearts characters.

Also you should add Poison since she clearly would have a win if not for Bioshock Infinite being so relatively new.


.....

Seriously, though, Kairi's a fair addition.

(Ayane for CBX.)
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#32 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:52:08 PM | message detail
Ethan is his name in HeartGold

Also would anyone consider Kyogre (or Groundon) in that list?
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Points: 34/40 Today's Picks: Squirtle and Zidane
#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 9:53:06 PM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Dante | Laharl | Raz | Votes
0:05 | 52.56% | 31.69% | 15.75% | 508
1:00 | 58.38% | 27.41% | 14.21% | 4301
2:00 | 59.64% | 25.64% | 14.72% | 3370
3:00 | 61.76% | 24.89% | 13.35% | 3049
4:00 | 60.48% | 24.72% | 14.80% | 2662
5:00 | 57.11% | 27.67% | 15.22% | 2497
6:00 | 60.40% | 24.71% | 14.90% | 2222
7:00 | 60.73% | 25.79% | 13.48% | 2121
8:00 | 60.94% | 24.24% | 14.82% | 1910
9:00 | 60.59% | 26.26% | 13.16% | 1733
10:00 | 61.93% | 23.98% | 14.09% | 1710
11:00 | 61.40% | 25.26% | 13.35% | 1663
12:00 | 60.17% | 23.91% | 15.92% | 1564

Handily losing the board vote to Laharl and Raz. That's...something, all right. Dante manages to recover pretty well from the slow start though.

X-Stats:

Dante – 50.00%
Laharl – 29.93%
Raz – 19.23%

Dante's prediction percentage was 89.88%
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#34 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:53:29 PM | message detail
Nidoran F was definitely below the VFL, though they'd all beat Vyse at this point

Boss Fodder Line wave of the future
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#35 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 9:53:35 PM | message detail
Oh because if you pick the girl Ethan becomes another rival character, right
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#36 | 14_and_counting | Posted 7/28/2013 9:53:51 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
Alright I added Garchomp

are there any other Pokemon that are above the Vyse fodder line

...Are all of them above the Vyse fodder line?


I doubt like Wurmple is (thougth Caterpie probably is) but I would say SAFELY 600 of the Pokemon are above the Vyse fodder line
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From: Regaro_Ukiera |
MWC is god-tier
#37 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/28/2013 9:53:58 PM | message detail
Put a Pokeball on that list. It's just as valid as L block and ? Block. Plus, it also has the iconic factor going for it.
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#38 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 9:54:00 PM | message detail
Dante now projected up to 53.3% on Squirtle assuming Ramza = Laharl.
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#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 9:54:09 PM | message detail
Also Ramza's up to 32% on Squirtle now, for comparison's sake.
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#40 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:55:08 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 you are slowly working your way up my favorite users list

the list was pretty much just like, KP, Leon, Yo, and a few others, then a biiiig gap, then Rad Link 5, then another biiig gap, then everyone else

but that gap is getting smaller and smaller
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#41 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:56:01 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I would not take Dante over Charizard (or Blastoise). There was a bandwagon and all, but Charizard's performances on Bowser and Mario just seemed too good even when factoring that in.


KP...you're talking about a game day performance seriously. Just...think about it for a second. A peformance on the day a game released for a character. Let's get real here. Use Charizard's performance against Duke instead. It's more legit. Just to hammer the point about how inflated Charizard's stats are...

Duke Nukem (2010c) has a strength of 27.62 against Base Link.
Duke Nukem (2004c) has a strength of 20.47 against Base Link

Duke Nukem (2010c) wins with 62.94% of the vote!
A win of 17,734 with 68,504 total votes cast.

Are we really gonna argue Duke gained 7 points over six years in spite of his earlier performance being boosted by an absolutely amazing pic (Milk Nukem)? Really?
#42 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:56:45 PM | message detail
Midcard Link 5
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#43 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:57:02 PM | message detail
Speaking of Pokemon human names, I never understood why he's called "Pokemon Trainer Red" in these contests instead of just "Red". I mean he is simply called "Red" in Pokemon RBY.
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#44 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/28/2013 9:57:35 PM | message detail | (edited)
The Squirtle picture on the results page reminds me of the Bidoof comics
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#45 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:57:54 PM | message detail
Well Duke did get an amazing pic against Charizard too (AMERICA)

I also think Duke boosted a bit since 2004. Probably not 7 points but 2 or 3 wouldn't surprise me
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#46 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/28/2013 9:58:05 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
Speaking of Pokemon human names, I never understood why he's called "Pokemon Trainer Red" in these contests instead of just "Red". I mean he is simply called "Red" in Pokemon RBY.


It's an amalgam of his Brawl name (Pokemon Trainer), his Gold/Silver name (IIRC it is Pokemon Trainer Red), and yeah, his RBY name.
#47 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 9:59:20 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
Speaking of Pokemon human names, I never understood why he's called "Pokemon Trainer Red" in these contests instead of just "Red". I mean he is simply called "Red" in Pokemon RBY.


I think it's because of Brawl. People wanted to call him "Pokemon Trainer" and others wanted "Red" so Bacon was like "SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP HE'LL BE BOTH"
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~Zen
#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 9:59:25 PM | message detail
Also Zen you were thinking of making a list of characters in this contest that could potentially miss the next contest.

If the next contest is a 128 character bracket then everyone seeded 15-27 (except 2 characters) would have missed the contest, anyone seeded 11-14 would be in likely danger of missing as well then you have to consider characters with board rallies (NRT, guru, independent).
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 34/40 Today's Picks: Squirtle and Zidane
#49 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 9:59:31 PM | message detail
Charizard would kill Duke these days. DNF only made him weaker.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#50 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 10:00:59 PM | message detail
Speaking of Pokemon human names, I never understood why he's called "Pokemon Trainer Red" in these contests instead of just "Red". I mean he is simply called "Red" in Pokemon RBY.

He's refered to it when you battle him.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 34/40 Today's Picks: Squirtle and Zidane