Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1081

#301 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/28/2013 2:42:28 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...


But why do people care about Dante more? It's in very large part because of his design, how that cool design evokes feelings from his fans, and when you do something to detract from that, it hurts him disproportionately.


Dante's character design isn't important because it appeals to fans. It's important because it appeals to non-fans! That's why he's more popular than his games.

And reading this topic, people seem to be misusing sabotage:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabotage

Sabotage is a deliberate action aimed at weakening another entity through subversion, obstruction, disruption, or destruction.

Snake getting a Solid **** sprite is not sabotage. He has to get a Sprite pic if it's the theme of the round. As long as the theme was not created to screw over Snake (Hint: It wasn't.) it's not sabotage. Same with someone using a picture that you don't personally like. If the person has no ulterior motives it's clearly not sabotage. Ceej using a Toon Link pic against Cloud in 2003 was not sabotage. Ceej was clearly intent on using Link's most recent iteration throughout the contest. He was not deliberately trying to screw over Link, that we know of.


New theory, and it's a beauty: Cloud over Link in 2003 is often credited with the continued existence of these contests. Ceej knew that Link would be an unstoppable force and did the one thing possible to get Link to lose a match.
#302 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 2:51:02 PM | message detail
No one could have known something like that after only two contests, and there is nothing that suggests that contests would have been halted had Link edged out a tiny win over Cloud. Remember, the next contest was Best Game Ever, so even had Link won the first two Character Battles, FFVII would have still won in the Spring of 2004 to "even things up" a bit.
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#303 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/28/2013 2:55:47 PM | message detail
My post was tongue-in-cheek, Yo.
#304 | Kotetsu534 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/28/2013 3:12:49 PM | message detail | (edited)
Here's a list of all the entrants who have so far managed to win the US but lose the match, or place 2nd in the US but come third in the match:

Jak (N), won the US by 8.91% but lost to Draven by 7.27%.
Tiny Tina (N), won the US by 4.09% but lost to Tharja by 0.86%.
Captain Falcon (N) won the US by 2.19% but lost to Alucard by 0.37%.
Proto Man (D) won the US by 1.58% but lost to Ike by 0.55%.
Ryu Hayabusa (D) placed second in the US by 0.64%, but lost to Zack by 3.00%.
Wheatley (N) won the US by 0.19% but lost to Crash by 5.83%.
Handsome Jack (D) tied for second in the US, but lost to Viewtiful Joe by 1.45%.

For comparison, here is the list of matches where a character won the US but lost the poll in CBVIII:

Samus Aran (N) won the US by 1.96% but lost to Cloud by 5.62%.
Auron (D) won the US by 1.38% but lost to Squall by 3.62%.

And GOTD:

Rock Band 2 (D) won the US by 6.1% but lost to Deus Ex by 1.52%.
Dead Rising (D) won the US by 5.8% but lost to Persona 4 by 0.54%.
Super Smash Bros. Melee (N) won the US by 2.08% but lost to Super Smash Bros. Brawl by 2.16%.
Sonic Adventure 2 (D) won the US by 1.8% but lost to Street Fighter IV by 1.5%.
Star Wars: KOTOR (D) won the US by 1.28% but lost to Final Fantasy IX by 6.14%.
Super Smash Bros. Brawl (24) won the US by 0.76% but lost to The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask by 1.04%.
Shadow of the Colossus (N) won the US by 0.64% but lost to Metal Gear Solid 3 by 1.24%.
Civilization IV (N) won the US by 0.16% but lost to Persona 3 by 4.7%.

Sadly we don't have vote totals from different countries to see what percentage of the vote the US has, how much that changes in night/day matches, and how much influence other countries have individually. This is also done more out of curiousity than to predict trends, because we've seen numerous times that there are large trends within regions during polls.
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#305 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/28/2013 3:12:45 PM | message detail
Link was sabotaged?
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#306 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 3:14:32 PM | message detail
Wow, Melee won the U.S.? Considering Brawl finally put that match away in the morning, I had assumed the opposite was true.
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#307 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/28/2013 3:18:05 PM | message detail
Let us discuss why the state of Vermont loves Laharl so much!
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#308 | creativename | Posted 7/28/2013 4:09:20 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...


That one's always a keeper


Being totally objective as I have not even played FFX
This is really not fair picture...


I'm still bitter about this one >_>

That is without exaggeration one of the most biased pics of all time. And FFX still got over 49%.

If that's Auron instead of Tidus - hell, pretty much *anything* except for Tidus vs. Nintendo - I think there's a great chance FFX wins that match.

Dilated Chemist posted...
Link was sabotaged?

Link vs. Cloud lined up almost exactly with how x-stats predicted it would go beforehand, so it's unlikely Link was actually affected by the WW pic.

Link vs. Magus might have been pic factor though.
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#309 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/28/2013 4:24:23 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Sadly we don't have vote totals from different countries to see what percentage of the vote the US has, how much that changes in night/day matches, and how much influence other countries have individually. This is also done more out of curiousity than to predict trends, because we've seen numerous times that there are large trends within regions during polls.


Geolocation stats for the past 3 contests:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHlKcWE3QUtwS0NzN2pFVXlscWJNMUE
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDVvM2tzcmFOQlJ2SWRManhLUTNvMUE
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdEtvbUkwMzh4X2NJX3YzQUt1anhBUkE

I can't do those same stats for this contest since I don't have access to view the match results by each continent (even if we could, I can't even see the vote totals either).

Based on the last 3 contests, this is vote breakdown for night matches:

North America - 70.64% / South America - 2.36% / Europe - 18.34% / Asia - 4.89% / Oceania - 3.63% / Africa - 0.15%

And the vote breakdown for day matches:

North America - 80.83% / South America - 2.82% / Europe - 12.48% / Asia - 1.90% / Oceania - 1.88% / Africa - 0.08%

I don't have stats for individual countries, though. Based on North America, the US would probably average about 59% of the votes in a night match and 68% in a day match.
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#310 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/28/2013 4:27:37 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Wow, Melee won the U.S.? Considering Brawl finally put that match away in the morning, I had assumed the opposite was true.


Brawl was quickly gaining percentage in the US with the morning vote, which is why Melee wouldn't have won a day match against Brawl. Melee would have gotten out to an early lead with the Power Hour in a day match, but then Brawl will just win the ASV easily.
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#311 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 4:29:14 PM | message detail
Wow, Melee won the U.S.? Considering Brawl finally put that match away in the morning, I had assumed the opposite was true.

Each country has trends as well, for example Kingdom Hearts was leading in the US before the ASV flipped it to KH2.

Canada also had Melee winning, but Brawl took the lead by the end of the match.

If it was a 24 hour match I have a feeling US would have gone Brawl (or at least it would be very close)
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#312 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/28/2013 5:15:59 PM | message detail
So who here didn't vote for Dante purely because his pic was from DMC2?

Also, DMC got beat cleanly by KotOR and DMC3 couldn't even double a game that didn't get released outside of Japan. I think the voters hardcore enough to actually recognize whether Dante's pic is from DMC2 or whatever would like him enough to vote for him regardless of his pic (well, maybe not from the newest game). It's not like he's unrecognizable to the general voters, which are the main problems with stuff like Solid S*** and ZSS.
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#313 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/28/2013 5:20:31 PM | message detail
Did he do this on purpose? Division 5 has like 1 debatable match, at least as far as Round 1 is concerned. Insanely boring division. And of course, Division 6 is the most exciting division in the bracket.
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#314 | tgs2 | Posted 7/28/2013 5:40:49 PM | message detail
Part of me has a morbid curiosity on how badly Samus could perform if she's given a pic of her in federation gear like on the cover for Other M. Could be the next incarnation of Solid **** if she already underperforms with a slightly recognizable ZSS pic.
#315 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 5:56:45 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Part of me has a morbid curiosity on how badly Samus could perform if she's given a pic of her in federation gear like on the cover for Other M. Could be the next incarnation of Solid **** if she already underperforms with a slightly recognizable ZSS pic.


http://i.imgur.com/bS2JoRa.jpg

I've had that saved for two years in anticipation of making it a pic

But then I swore I wouldn't do any pic sabotage sooooo

anyone else?
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#316 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/28/2013 6:10:19 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
tgs2 posted...
Part of me has a morbid curiosity on how badly Samus could perform if she's given a pic of her in federation gear like on the cover for Other M. Could be the next incarnation of Solid **** if she already underperforms with a slightly recognizable ZSS pic.


http://i.imgur.com/bS2JoRa.jpg

I've had that saved for two years in anticipation of making it a pic

But then I swore I wouldn't do any pic sabotage sooooo

anyone else?


I'd be willing to endorse it if Samus had an unlosable match, but I'd be worried about Sandbag collecting joke votes against her with that pic.
#317 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/28/2013 6:23:58 PM | message detail
There's no one who stands a ghost of a chance against even a weakened Samus until round 3… the sprite round. So I'd say that's a no-go. If you want to increase people's x-stats in her ninepack, then go right ahead.
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#318 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/28/2013 6:27:00 PM | message detail
I do want to see Federation Samus in a match. >__>
#319 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 6:28:13 PM | message detail
I always like to test how pics affect matches so I'm all for it.
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#320 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 6:59:29 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/New_Characters

Did a big overhaul on the list of potential newbies. Anyone spot anything that looks super wrong?
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#321 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/28/2013 7:00:55 PM | message detail
Match XLI: (5) Squirtle vs. (14) Ramza Beoulve vs. (23) JC Denton

Previous Contest

Squirtle – N/A
N/A

Ramza Beoulve – 2010
37.69% against Riku

JC Denton – 2004
16.46% against Mario

Analysis

This is one of those matches where all three characters are spread apart nicely so there is almost no discussion here. Ramza looked a lot better in his 2010 match than he did in 2008 where he lost to Hogger, but unless Squirtle really flops I do not see him being much of a threat to him. He could be even weaker now as well, but at the same time he should not be in any danger of losing to Denton.

It has almost been a decade since we last saw JC Denton, but with no games under his belt since we last saw him I am not expecting much out of him. The only thing worth watching for here is how much Deus Ex fans will whine when they see their character getting crushed by a Pokemon. From a fan’s perspective I understand, but to anyone that understands GameFAQs we just do not care about PC characters.

Squirtle is thought to be the next strongest Pokemon yet to have made the bracket which is why he is one of our Nomination Rally Tournament winners. There is great debate as to whether Blastoise is stronger and while I am on the side of Squirtle I do imagine Blastoise packing quite the punch. Regardless this match is design to see whether or not Squirtle will have a chance against Dante next round.

A solid thrashing of Ramza is needed in order to have a chance at the upset next round and I expect Squirtle to push the numbers towards that upset. Pokemon is still showing that it packs quite the punch in this contest and I do not see Squirtle disappointing. 60% is a bit much, but he could approach it especially if JC Denton folds badly.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Squirtle > Ramza Beoulve and JC Denton

charmander6000’s Prediction: Squirtle – 58.37%, Ramza Beoulve – 28.22%, JC Denton – 13.41%
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#322 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/28/2013 7:29:11 PM | message detail
Tina Armstrong wouldn't be a newcomer. Unless you were taking into account that history was altered and she didn't beat Gordon therefore GFNW never happened either.

K. Rool was in Rivalry Rumble.

Seeing how bad some of these suggested newcomers are, I'll throw in a suggestion for Ryu and Nina from Breath of Fire. Multiple games on multiple consoles, could have some great pictures, and being technically a different person each game hasn't been a problem for Link.

Considering some of the dreck in the potential returners section, Axel deserves to be listed. You could argue Bidoof too since he's won stuff but I'd say no. I don't think we're ever going to run out of pokemon stronger than Bidoof probably is.

Oh hey, add Goemon to that section too. Can't really deny him that after we got Dancin in. >_>
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#323 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 7:30:56 PM | message detail
thanks for catching Tina and K. Rool. Dunno what I was thinking with Tina, but I probably forgot K. Rool because I forgot RR in general

adding your other suggestions
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#324 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 7:38:00 PM | message detail
Huh, Dante's gonna end here over 70 on Laharl probably, significantly better than Sora did and just a percent worse than Bowser would be expected to do.

...I won't go so far as to suggest the new DmC might be helping him, but that's not bad!
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#325 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/28/2013 7:50:17 PM | message detail
Viewtiful Dante is probably my favorite incarnation of Dante

*puts up flame shield*
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#326 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 7:54:29 PM | message detail
New DmC could've helped Dante. As I said in my analysis for this match I could see potential Dante voters becoming nostalgic about old Dante when he gets his old look for pics. "Man Dante used to be awesome why'd they change his look *votes Dante" sorta thing.

Not really a boost in the traditional sense but functionally the same thing.
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#327 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 7:54:29 PM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
Why do people never use Snake's much-better GBC sprite anyway?

Or heck, take his SNES-style one from the Smash Kingdom videos.


http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb553.jpg

You mean this thing?
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#328 | pjbasis | Posted 7/28/2013 7:56:05 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
New DmC could've helped Dante. As I said in my analysis for this match I could see potential Dante voters becoming nostalgic about old Dante when he gets his old look for pics. "Man Dante used to be awesome why'd they change his look *votes Dante" sorta thing.

Not really a boost in the traditional sense but functionally the same thing.


I feel the same thing should happen to Final Fantasy when XIII comes out and everyone's like aw man look at good old square and FFVII, VIII, and IX!
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 7:56:32 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Wow, Melee won the U.S.? Considering Brawl finally put that match away in the morning, I had assumed the opposite was true.


Brawl was gaining ground in the U.S. when morning came. If that match went the whole 24 hours, Brawl probably finishes ahead in America.
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#330 | The Real Truth | Posted 7/28/2013 7:58:59 PM | message detail
I always forget MvC3 exists and Dante was in it.
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#331 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/28/2013 7:59:25 PM | message detail
You are now realizing Cloud didn't do much better on Prinny than Dante is doing on Laharl.
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#332 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 8:00:39 PM | message detail
Ohmygodohmygodohymygod DANTE > CLOUD LET'S DO IT
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#333 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 8:00:56 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
You are now realizing Cloud didn't do much better on Prinny than Dante is doing on Laharl.


So basically you're saying if Dante can survive Squirtle next round, beating Cloud should be a cinch, right?

(Prinny's probably stronger than Laharl)
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#334 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 8:01:25 PM | message detail
Cloud Strife got 73.67% on Prinny
Dante got 70.05% on Laharl

christ
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#335 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 8:01:28 PM | message detail
Not that I liked Cloud's performance at all, but Prinny probably kicks Laharl's ass for a lot of reasons.
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#336 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 8:04:03 PM | message detail
SHUT UP

DANTE > CLOUD HYPE
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#337 | tgs2 | Posted 7/28/2013 8:07:00 PM | message detail
Uhh Prinny and Laharl aren't that far off in 2010 stats. Even if you factor in Charizard shenanigans, Prinny would probably only put up 52% on Laharl.

Cloud on Upset alert aw yeah.
#338 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 8:09:48 PM | message detail
I will ride the Squirtle > Cloud upset train all the way home if possible
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#339 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 8:11:32 PM | message detail
I will anti-vote Squirtle because the NRT chose to support him instead of Blastoise.

Blastoise is like the ONE Pokemon I'd support in this thing.
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#340 | Lopen | Posted 7/28/2013 8:12:08 PM | message detail
Blastoise would've been stronger too imhhhho.

I'd be surprised if Squirtle hit 50% to be honest.
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#341 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 8:12:32 PM | message detail
I wish that instead of Zero, Mewtwo's second opponent would have been returning fodder so that we could actually extrapolate how badly he's supposed to crush Link now.
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#342 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 8:13:18 PM | message detail
Blastoise was 1 vote away from beating Squirtle in the NRT.

History would've changed a lot for the better. Squirtle is not too great.
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#343 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 8:15:20 PM | message detail
I really would like to make some Blastoise pics

my favorite UCB pic was of Blastoise:

http://i.imgur.com/r3pY3AY.jpg

he's one bad mutha

shut yo mouth

i'm only talkin' bout blastoise
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#344 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/28/2013 8:16:20 PM | message detail
lmao if Blastoise got a picture like that against Dante, it'd be a slaughter.
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#345 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/28/2013 8:17:06 PM | message detail
you know what sucks about Squirtle is that if he bombs there might be a stigma around nominating Blastoise

that'll really suck. We could be forever too shellshocked to nominate the real icon of Pokemon Blue
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#346 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 8:17:52 PM | message detail
If Blastoise was allowed a pic like that, then Red could get a pic like this

http://fc07.deviantart.net/fs71/i/2012/115/0/6/pokemon_trainer_red_render_by_oxeyclean-d4xlibs.png

And the field would just be blown wide open. Wide. Open.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#347 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2013 8:18:30 PM | message detail
idk why you guys went for Squirtle over Blastoise. Blastoise is on the cover of Blue, like Charizard is on Red. He's badass as hell. I mean, it's not like we think Charizard is weaker than Charmander, right?
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#348 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/28/2013 8:19:21 PM | message detail
I would not have taken Dante over Blastoise. No way.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#349 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/28/2013 8:19:24 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
you know what sucks about Squirtle is that if he bombs there might be a stigma around nominating Blastoise

that'll really suck. We could be forever too shellshocked to nominate the real icon of Pokemon Blue


All you'll need is to find 30 people willing to nominate Blastoise. I'm sure you could manage that.

And if there's another NRT, SOME Pokemon is going to end up getting NRT support, and Blastoise is as good of a bet as any Pokemon that's never been in.
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#350 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/28/2013 8:19:42 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
idk why you guys went for Squirtle over Blastoise. Blastoise is on the cover of Blue, like Charizard is on Red. He's badass as hell. I mean, it's not like we think Charizard is weaker than Charmander, right?


Because next round is going to be DmC Dante vs. Squirtle Squad Squirtle.
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