Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1081

#1 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:01:57 PM | message detail
Rise of the Pokemon.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Qwaar | Posted 7/27/2013 9:02:19 PM | message detail
Woo, back on the expert leaderboard again.
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#3 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:02:20 PM | message detail
Lugia!
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POKEFEAR
#4 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:02:53 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Sly Cooper
18.18%
2 Votes
Your Pick

Francis York Morgan
18.18%
2 Votes

Lugia
63.64%
7 Votes
Total Votes: 11

The current result saddens me. At this point the next contest should just be vote for your favorite Pokemon.
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#5 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:02:53 PM | message detail
York.....
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#6 | ninkendo | Posted 7/27/2013 9:03:15 PM | message detail
#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:03:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, York's finishing under 10% here.
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#8 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:03:51 PM | message detail
And the whole world shall turn to ash...
#9 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:04:08 PM | message detail
Holy ****.

I'm taking Lugia > Frog now
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#10 | spooky96 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:04:12 PM | message detail
At this point the next contest should just be vote for your favorite Pokemon.


I wouldn't mind such a contest to be honest >_>
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#11 | Kibago | Posted 7/27/2013 9:04:13 PM | message detail
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#12 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/27/2013 9:04:22 PM | message detail
This match is going to burn the casuals so bad. You know Sly has to be the bracket favorite.
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#13 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:15 PM | message detail | (edited)
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?
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#14 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:13 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
This match is going to burn the casuals so bad. You know Sly has to be the bracket favorite.


Nah, Lugia will still be the overall favorite, but it'll probably be in the 50% range.

MoogleKupo141 posted...
I'm taking Lugia > Frog now


Both of Frog's opponents are stronger than Sly and York.
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#15 | JJH777 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:24 PM | message detail
Lugia > Cloud. Sly would beat Prinny right? Then there's also Frog being in the match hurting Cloud.
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#16 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:41 PM | message detail
Poor sly
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#17 | isNotPerfect | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:46 PM | message detail
damn I hoped Sly would at least put up a decent fight

And so the last perfect bracket falls...
#18 | spooky96 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:05:50 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


Mudkip probably.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#19 | Kibago | Posted 7/27/2013 9:06:13 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


starters/Kyogre/Rayquaza/Gardevoir/Salamence.
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#20 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:06:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
This match is going to burn the casuals so bad. You know Sly has to be the bracket favorite.


Nah, Lugia will still be the overall favorite, but it'll probably be in the 50% range.

MoogleKupo141 posted...
I'm taking Lugia > Frog now


Both of Frog's opponents are stronger than Sly and York.


but square SFF and also Frog is a total chump
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For your SuperNiceDog.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
#21 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:06:44 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


Blaziken?
#22 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/27/2013 9:07:03 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


Probably Gardevoir, Blaziken, Sceptile, or Rayquaza
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#23 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/27/2013 9:07:05 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
WellThoughtName posted...
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


Mudkip probably.


Oh.. yeah.

Probably, even though I don't want to admit it.
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#24 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/27/2013 9:07:33 PM | message detail
Oh yeah mudkip

He was in here
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Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#25 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:07:59 PM | message detail
Frog will cheat to beat Lugia if necessary.

And it might be necessary.
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#26 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:08:52 PM | message detail
I thought Lugia > Frog was a given.
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POKEFEAR
#27 | spooky96 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:08:55 PM | message detail
No but in all seriousness, am I insane to believe that Lugia could potentially threaten Frog for the 2nd spot?
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#28 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:09:28 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
WellThoughtName posted...
Kibago posted...
so...can we try a Gen 3 pokemon next year? G/S/C and R/S/E both nostalgia-aged now.

gardevoir train choo choo


What would be the strongest Gen 3 pokémon anyway?


Mudkip probably.



You're probably right; maybe Latios/Latias would have a chance.

I would love if a troll rally pushed Nosepass or even Luvdisc to the top though.
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#29 | tgs2 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:10:34 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
No but in all seriousness, am I insane to believe that Lugia could potentially threaten Frog for the 2nd spot?


Cloud is there to make it an easy 2nd place for Lugia.
#30 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:10:38 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
No but in all seriousness, am I insane to believe that Lugia could potentially threaten Frog for the 2nd spot?


Nah, Lugia's got a shot.

People shouldn't think this is a good performance just like they shouldn't think what Epona did was a good performance, and these guys are worse than Mordin/Niko.
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#31 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/27/2013 9:11:26 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
I thought Lugia > Frog was a given.


Lugia > Frog most likely happens if Cloud SFFs Frog here.
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#32 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:12:52 PM | message detail
I don't know why you guys keep thinking FFVII/CT SFF is a thing.

If it exists, it's extremely minor.
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#33 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/27/2013 9:13:16 PM | message detail
Wow, less than half the brackers got the last match right. I thought Frog winning was obvious.
#34 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/27/2013 9:13:38 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
37------1------------100.00
36------5------------80.00
35------61----------91.80
34------175--------92.57
33------292--------85.27
32------434--------67.74
31------640--------61.25
30------976--------57.17
29------1342------47.47
28------1587------43.67
27------1651------39.98
26------1680------33.87
25------1427------33.85
24------1187------35.13
23------961--------30.91
22------662--------26.74
21------530--------30.75
20------451--------29.05
19------319--------30.09
18------231--------30.74
17------154--------42.21
16------117--------34.19
15------104--------37.50
14------80----------26.25
13------50----------40.00
12------37----------29.73
11------19----------31.58
10------17----------47.06
9--------9------------22.22
8--------12----------41.67
7--------3------------33.33
6--------5------------0.00
5--------0------------0.00
4--------3------------0.00
3--------19----------10.53
2--------3------------0.00
1--------9------------0.00
0--------1------------0.00

Strong support for Frog in the top tiers but not unanimous. We lose a -1 (36 points) and a few -2s (35 points) and -3s (34 points) despite Frog dominating the match. The -3s actually did a slight bit better than the -2s. Prediction percentage falls off drastically at -5 (32 points). -4s were in the mid-80s while -5 was the high 60s. The prediction percentage falls quite quickly from there as well so themid tiers were only in the low-40s or high 30s. Frog may not have been the favourite by much to the casual bracketmakers.

3 people fell off the Top 49. scolletti105, hansonchueh and LinkMarioSamus did not have Frog winning.
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#35 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:14:51 PM | message detail
Barely doubling Sly Cooper now

Look at this power
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#36 | Jakyl25 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:15:03 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I don't know why you guys keep thinking FFVII/CT SFF is a thing.

If it exists, it's extremely minor.


It just seems like it SHOULD exist.

I can't see someone playing CT and not also playing FFVII, unless they just were a pure Nintendo console person. The other way around, sure.
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#37 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:15:53 PM | message detail
Lugia seems decent, and I'm counting on Cloud to SFF Frog. I'm taking Lugia second. I mean, if you've got Pikachu > Crono in your bracket, why the hell not?
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#38 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:18:25 PM | message detail
Jakyl25 posted...
It just seems like it SHOULD exist.


Oh, I know it seems like it should.

It's just that we've seen several FFVII/CT matches and no signs of any funny business in any of them, so if it does exist, it's barely even noticeable.

Old Square and New Square are two different groups of people though, despite CT and FFVII only being two years apart.

Although people are taking issue with me calling FFVII New Square now! Maybe it should be Old Square, Modern Square, and Postmodern Square.
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#39 | Qwaar | Posted 7/27/2013 9:18:53 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Lugia seems decent, and I'm counting on Cloud to SFF Frog. I'm taking Lugia second. I mean, if you've got Pikachu > Crono in your bracket, why the hell not?


I must be missing something with the whole Pikachu -> Crono thing.
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#40 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/27/2013 9:19:07 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I don't know why you guys keep thinking FFVII/CT SFF is a thing.

If it exists, it's extremely minor.


I think people see it from Crono getting destroyed in that 2008 final. I mean, there's nothing since 2004 to compare Crono to Link, but it was clear that both Crono and Cloud underperformed in that match. The question is how much of Crono's underperformance was due to his drop in strength and how much of Cloud's was due to Snake's bandwagon.
#41 | spooky96 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:19:31 PM | message detail
Yeah I agree, CT/FF7 doesn't' affect each other much, but they do, and it is minor.

I'd still say Frog>Lugia, but first I'll have to see what the board in general has to say.
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#42 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:20:26 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I think people see it from Crono getting destroyed in that 2008 final.


Eh, that's more of a Last Place Factor than anything. You had three hardcore fanbases believing their guy could win and pushing for it, with poor Crono left in the dust.

No different than what happened to Snake in 2007.
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#43 | Jakyl25 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:20:30 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Jakyl25 posted...
It just seems like it SHOULD exist.


Oh, I know it seems like it should.

It's just that we've seen several FFVII/CT matches and no signs of any funny business in any of them, so if it does exist, it's barely even noticeable.

Old Square and New Square are two different groups of people though, despite CT and FFVII only being two years apart.

Although people are taking issue with me calling FFVII New Square now! Maybe it should be Old Square, Modern Square, and Postmodern Square.


Golden Age Square, Silver Age Square, and What Happened To Square?
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#44 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/27/2013 9:20:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, Lugia's got this, we just gotta remember this doesnt' mean much because Sly has always been by far the weakest of the Sony mascots. I wouldn't be surprised is his mascot brethren all doubled him before SFF.
#45 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2013 9:21:26 PM | message detail
And Snake/Cloud stayed about the same proportion from the round before without Crono being there. The trends were just totally different because Snake got out to such a hot start that he was beating Link for several hours, even.
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#46 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/27/2013 9:22:38 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Lugia seems decent, and I'm counting on Cloud to SFF Frog. I'm taking Lugia second. I mean, if you've got Pikachu > Crono in your bracket, why the hell not?


I must be missing something with the whole Pikachu -> Crono thing.


Magus is expected to be there. Even if you think Crono turns on the afterburners and reduces Magus to getting 20% on him (from the 30+% he pulled last time they met), 80% of 2010 Crono is not enough to beat Pikachu.
#47 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/27/2013 9:24:04 PM | message detail
Also, Lugia better than the actual Guru pick lol
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#48 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/27/2013 9:24:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I think people see it from Crono getting destroyed in that 2008 final.


Eh, that's more of a Last Place Factor than anything. You had three hardcore fanbases believing their guy could win and pushing for it, with poor Crono left in the dust.

No different than what happened to Snake in 2007.


I'm not disagreeing. I just think that a lot of people saw that as SFF, probably due to an unwillingness to admit that Crono is weaker and that Snake beat Cloud (relatively) legitimately.
#49 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/27/2013 9:25:48 PM | message detail
Without the Square LFF, i'd take Lugia over Frog.
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#50 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/27/2013 9:43:18 PM | message detail
I just noticed someone had -214 points in the Expert challenge

That's... impressive
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