Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1080

#101 | abdou | Posted 7/26/2013 9:13:30 PM | message detail
looks like Cloud will end up with 61-62%

not impressive at all, but expected I guess
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#102 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 9:15:35 PM | message detail
Cloud path is boring. He'll win his division one way or another, then inevitably lose to Snake(barring some wacky Kefka sprite round shenanigans) and/or Pikachu

The FF7 falling off should be more concerned with the debatable matches, like Shepard/Aerith or Sonic/Vincent/Bowser
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F*** BT
#103 | vcharon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:17:24 PM | message detail
Kefka winning his match and presumably the next one has interesting implications in a sprite round, but there's pretty much no chance in hell... I mean Solid **** vs. Laughing Kefka gif...
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Still smilin'
:>
#104 | swordz9 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:17:33 PM | message detail
I'm sure there's someone crazy out there now thinking Frog might possibly hurt Cloud enough for Lugia to win R2.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#105 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/26/2013 9:17:42 PM | message detail
Cloud probably ends up with 66% or something, but that's not really a good result. These guys are weak.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#106 | abdou | Posted 7/26/2013 9:18:17 PM | message detail
nice update
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#107 | LinkLegend27 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:18:59 PM | message detail
No idea where it's from but how could you not vote for that damn Penguin??
#108 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:19:09 PM | message detail
This kind of performance against a very weak fodder known as prinny, lol Cloud.
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The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die.
#109 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:19:34 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
looks like Cloud will end up with 61-62%

not impressive at all, but expected I guess


I'd say Cloud probably ends up finishing between 62-64%.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#110 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:19:56 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I'm sure there's someone crazy out there now thinking Frog might possibly hurt Cloud enough for Lugia to win R2.


Epona vs Lugia vs Pikachu semi, you heard it here first
#111 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:20:06 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
I'm sure there's someone crazy out there now thinking Frog might possibly hurt Cloud enough for Lugia to win R2.


Or Squirtle, who will be way stronger than Lugia.

Not that I'm saying it.
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POKEFEAR
#112 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/26/2013 9:21:08 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
35------4------------25.00
34------43----------4.65
33------148--------13.51
32------222--------21.17
31------317--------36.91
30------459--------50.98
29------730--------56.99
28------1079------61.26
27------1516------61.21
26------1711------58.56
25------1712------55.96
24------1669------56.02
23------1365------51.14
22------1145------46.03
21------796--------45.60
20------618--------37.54
19------464--------37.07
18------345--------38.26
17------253--------40.71
16------168--------45.24
15------159--------38.36
14------88----------35.23
13------58----------31.03
12------58----------43.10
11------32----------43.75
10------26----------42.31
9--------11----------36.36
8--------11----------18.18
7--------6------------33.33
6--------4------------0.00
5--------2------------50.00
4--------3------------0.00
3--------18----------0.00
2--------2------------50.00
1--------6------------33.33
0--------6------------83.33

I expected a disaster for the top tiers but I think this is worse than I thought it would be. One perfect bracket manages to survive. isNotPerfect now has the only remaining perfect bracket. Less than 5% of the -1s (34 points) got the match correct. 41/43 got it wrong. The prediction percentage rises quickly as you go down each tier before leveling off at around 60%. This is the reverse of what we normally see happen to the prediction percentage and also means the damage Kefka did was largely limited to the top tiers.Finally, congrats to the 0 brackets for having the highest prediction percentage. Over 80 is pretty good except for the fact that they were trying to get it wrong. Just 1 0 bracket is left standing as well.

14 people fell off the Top 49. Nintendoboy375, Prankster928, ramprevs, SBAllen, Spikedross, Squirrelgate, startme_up, TeamRocketElite, t_kizzle, Xcarvenger, YetAnothrShadow, Yleffl, Abuses_J00 and Ace_Bernstein did not have Kefka winning the match. I didn't last very long on the leaderboard. I'll be back, though!

32 people got the match wrong but survived because they have a name earlier in the alphabet than me (or have a higher score). Former first place Blairville, Former second place Fr0zoN, NLMagic, -LusterSoldier-, AAAMitsugi, Advokaiser, Bane_Of_Despair, BlAcK_TuRtLe, CarveyFAQs, ChronoT7, Colegreen_c12, CubsFan2126, DarkFalconX, davidponte, eliteking727, Gandalfsam, GoldSlime35, Hagankefs, hellfire104, Hitagi, Honedge, iGenesis, JaySolano, jkmill550, KamikazePotato, KanzarisKelshen, Kumatora, lightsout06, LinkMarioSamus, Lizcious, Luis_Sera89 and MrDew also did not have Kefka winning.

3 people on the Top 49 got the match right. Congrats to current first place and last remaining perfect isNotPerfect, scolletti105 and VincentLauw on siding with Kefka!
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#113 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:22:36 PM | message detail
I guess Prinny is just goofy medium fodder standing out against two more "mature" PS characters...?

I'll see if the servant can totally keep 29% on Cloud (unlikely but possible).
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Wii Fit Trainer MASTER RACE
#114 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:23:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
I feel bad for isnotPerfect because he has Lugia not winning. Dude could have survived for longer.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#115 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:23:12 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
isNotPerfect now has the only remaining perfect bracket.Finally, congrats to the 0 brackets for having the highest prediction percentage.


the irony of these two comments
it's too much
#116 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:23:36 PM | message detail
From: Team Rocket Elite | #112
Finally, congrats to the 0 brackets for having the highest prediction percentage. Over 80 is pretty good except for the fact that they were trying to get it wrong. Just 1 0 bracket is left standing as well.


lol us
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Character Battle IX: 31/36 points, Next matches: Cloud Strife, Frog
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#117 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 9:23:41 PM | message detail
when did we all start taking squirtle over dante

is it because PokeFEAR or DmC
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F*** BT
#118 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:32:24 PM | message detail | (edited)
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
2. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
3. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
4. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
5. Hero – 25.76% vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 23.26% - Round 1 – 2.50%
6. Zack Fair – 32.59% vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 29.59% - Round 1 – 3.00%
7. Isaac – 15.36% vs. Tingle – 11.97% - Round 1 – 3.39%
8. Miles Edgeworth – 28.18% vs. Agent 47 – 23.63% - Round 1 – 4.55%
9. Chrom – 29.78% vs. Heavy – 24.61% - Round 1 – 5.17%
10. Kefka – 37.82% vs. Zack Fair – 32.59% - Round 1 – 5.23%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
3. Zack Fair – 9862 vs. Ryu Hayabusa – 8955 – Round 1 – 907
4. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413
5. Kefka – 11443 vs. Zack Fair – 9862 – Round 1 – 1581
6. Chrom – 9589 vs. Heavy – 7924 – Round 1 – 1665
7. Proto Man – 10854 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 1945
8. Fei Fong Wong – 6288 vs. Dan Hibiki – 4217 – Round 1 – 2071
9. Ike – 11023 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 2114
10. N – 8892 vs. Wander – 6714 – Round 1 – 2178

Top 5 Least Popular Day Polls
1. Ness vs. Locke Cole vs. CATS – Round 1 – 27607
2. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 29616
3. Kefka vs. Zack Fair vs. Ryu Hayabusa – Round 1 – 30260
4. Vincent Valentine vs. KOS-MOS vs. Dunban – Round 1 – 30485
5. Luigi vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Jade – Round 1 – 30674

Top 5 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Ike – Round 1 – 11023
2. Kefka – Round 1 – 11443
3. Ness – Round 1 – 12979
4. Altair – Round 1 – 13157
5. The Boss – Round 1 – 14690

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
3. KOS-MOS – Round 1 – 10944
4. Proto Man – Round 1 – 10854
5. Professor Layton – Round 1 – 10587
6. Zack Fair – Round 1 – 9862
7. Captain Olimar – Round 1 – 9829
8. Ratchet – Round 1 – 9692
9. Chrom – Round 1 – 9589
10. Ryu Hayabusa – Round 1 – 8955

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
2. Crash Bandicoot vs. Wheatley vs. Tommy Vercetti – Round 1 – 40.90%
3. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 42.42%
4. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 42.49%
5. Morrigan Aensland vs. Miles Edgeworth vs. Agent 47 – Round 1 – 45.15%
6. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 50.76%
7. Kefka vs. Zack Fair vs. Ryu Hayabusa – Round 1 – 51.14%
8. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 51.28%
9. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 51.46%
10. The Boss vs. Chrom vs. Heavy – Round 1 – 52.99%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 30/36 Today's Picks: Cloud and Frog
#119 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:27:21 PM | message detail
I have Dante>Squirtle and didnt look back. Seems like a easy match to me
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Dallas Cowboys and Mavs
#120 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:28:14 PM | message detail
Cloud over 61% already. He should be over 62% before the end of this hour, which puts him in a very good position to reach 65%.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#121 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 9:28:40 PM | message detail
I'm surprised that Squirtle isn't the favorite, although I suppose the realistic possibility of another Nintendo character (Ridley) scared some people off. Every time, Dante chokes away the debated match, and every time, people support him yet again.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#122 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/26/2013 9:30:19 PM | message detail
Dude came to the battle wearing a suit.

F*** it, I'm voting for him.
#123 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:30:36 PM | message detail
I was one of the people that took a chance on Squirtle > Dante in round 2.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#124 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:31:12 PM | message detail
Damn you know an upset's a real upset when the 0 brackets get it right and they had three choices to choose from. Good job, Kefka.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#125 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:31:44 PM | message detail
I lost my zero bracket on that match because I picked Kefka.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#126 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:33:39 PM | message detail
Cloud really getting down to business.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 30/36 Today's Picks: Cloud and Frog
#127 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:33:41 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Cloud over 61% already. He should be over 62% before the end of this hour, which puts him in a very good position to reach 65%.


over 62% by the end of 30 minutes?
#128 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 9:34:29 PM | message detail
God damn, Cloud is exploding. Looks like I may have lowballed him with my 65% prediction. He can end up 1 or even 2% above it.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#129 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:34:53 PM | message detail
Damn alphabetical order, I'm back in the 18 others tied at. YAY KEFKA!
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I pwn you all!
#130 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2013 9:35:16 PM | message detail
Luster, how many brackets did you submit this year?
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#131 | vcharon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:36:05 PM | message detail
Nice to see Cloud rebounding a bit here. He's overperformed my personal expectation, at least. He might still have the overall power to be a force in this contest, he'll just be working from behind due to his awful early vote.
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Still smilin'
:>
#132 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:36:21 PM | message detail
Just for kicks, Prinny got 22.68% against Magikarp in that 27 seed poll.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 30/36 Today's Picks: Cloud and Frog
#133 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:38:56 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Luster, how many brackets did you submit this year?


Somewhere around 10 brackets. I didn't feel like doing a bracket on every account.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#134 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:39:55 PM | message detail
I have Squirtle > Dante too.

He's the 3rd best Pokemon entrant.
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POKEFEAR
#135 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:41:43 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
HaRRicH posted...
Luster, how many brackets did you submit this year?


Somewhere around 10 brackets. I didn't feel like doing a bracket on every account.


so you have more than 10 accounts... why???
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#136 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:41 PM | message detail
Cloud REALLY taking off now.
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POKEFEAR
#137 | Sorozone | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:47 PM | message detail
Cloud is really gaining here. He should end up with a respectable percentage.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#138 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:13 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
HaRRicH posted...
Luster, how many brackets did you submit this year?


Somewhere around 10 brackets. I didn't feel like doing a bracket on every account.


so you have more than 10 accounts... why???


you have a better method for *CLBD?







*Complete...Leaderboard...Domination
/wesker
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F*** BT
#139 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:13 PM | message detail
Luster Soldier how many accounts do you have right now?
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#140 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:44:27 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Luster Soldier how many accounts do you have right now?


A mod is asking this question. A MOD.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#141 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:08 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Luster Soldier how many accounts do you have right now?


probably more accounts than P4A has entrants at VxG
#142 | WhiteLens | Posted 7/26/2013 9:53:13 PM | message detail
Oh Senator Steven Armstrong, the only time I won't vote for the 27th-seed is for him.
I don't even like him that much as a villain, I find it absolutely hilarious that he's in.

So, Jack or Joe for 2nd-place in the next match?
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"In fact, I should just play good games from now on...
Man, F*** THAT, let's play some s***ty ones!" - Angry Video Game Nerd
#143 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 9:55:09 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Luster Soldier how many accounts do you have right now?


probably more accounts than P4A has entrants at VxG


so more than half a dozen
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F*** BT
#144 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 10:00:56 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Luster Soldier how many accounts do you have right now?


269
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#145 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 10:02:09 PM | message detail
that's uh

wow
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F*** BT
#146 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:03:24 PM | message detail
Cloud has stalled out, at least temporarily
#147 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:04:48 PM | message detail
Prinny just increased its percentage for the first time, and Cloud lost percentage for the first time.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#148 | TAFKAHurricane | Posted 7/26/2013 10:19:55 PM | message detail
Well not gonna complain about losing 4 points yet somehow jumping up to 4th on the expert leaderboard.
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http://i.imgur.com/97Pxu.gif http://i.imgur.com/DOF4PCH.gif
#149 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 10:25:42 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh sweet, I'm 17th on the expert leaderboard. For some backwards ass reason, picking Ryu H > Zack > Kefka is less wrong than picking Zack > Ryu > Kefka!
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F*** BT
#150 | Blairville | Posted 7/26/2013 10:26:27 PM | message detail
I lost 3, but I'm only 10 behind the leader. All of those missed 50/50s are flooding into memory now.
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Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille
You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn