Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1079

#251 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/26/2013 10:42:05 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
I think it has just been the FF side characters so far that has been sucking it up. Yeah they get antivoted, but Sephiroth still looked really strong while another strong character, Vincent, looked like ****. Aeris performed okay when you compare her bad performance with Sheppard's equally bad performance.

This bodes well for Squall, Auron, and Yuna. Sucks for Gilgamesh, and who cares about Tidus really.


Rydia is a side character and looked excellent. The FF7 bubble has definitely burst, Old square is looking great and its up for debate how the rest of new square will be affected.
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#252 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/26/2013 10:42:37 AM | message detail
F***ing ugh at this match. There goes my first Round 3 person. God damn you Kefka. I'd be more okay with this if it wasn't f***ing trolled by Kefka again.
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#253 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 10:43:26 AM | message detail
Oh f***, I have Zack winning two rounds as well. LMFAO
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#254 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 10:44:02 AM | message detail
Kefka going for that 400 votes barrier.
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#255 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:45:11 AM | message detail
Kefka trolling the best
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#256 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 10:45:26 AM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
To the whole Chief vs Yuna debate, doesn't Chief historically perform better in multi-way contests? Claire's not a threat to win, but she's not Chester/Yuri either. I remember Chief crushing Yuna when they met in a multi-way before, but I could be wrong.


You are right that Chief crushed Yuna when they met in a multi-way before, three times even, but that was around the time of Halo 3's release.

An alternate take on it is that Chief could potentially benefit from the mascot factor in similar fashion to Jak/Spyro/Crash/Ratchet/Lara, although to be fair he's not nearly as washed up as those guys and still a good deal more mainstream. On the other hand, I feel as if Halo has never been particularly big since Halo 3 (or at least ODST), thanks to a certain other franchise becoming the big thing in that genre.
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#257 | TheOneAboveAll (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/26/2013 10:46:23 AM | message detail
Sprite Kefka upsetting Sprite Snake could mean a Crono/Cloud/Kefka semi, which (in mine and red sox's dreamworld) leads to an SFF upset and a Crono/Mario/Link final, which leads to...
#258 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:47:15 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
On the other hand, I feel as if Halo has never been particularly big since Halo 3 (or at least ODST), thanks to a certain other franchise becoming the big thing in that genre.


Call of Duty Dog for Character Battle 2014!
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#259 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 10:48:48 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Oh f***, I have Zack winning two rounds as well. LMFAO


Me too, though that raises an interesting question: Altair looked like his old self while FFVII characters have consistently disappointed, so do you think Altair would be able to reverse his 2008 loss to Zack? Because that loss was pretty much the only reason I picked Zack over Altair.

The even more stupid thing is that I picked Kefka to win initially because I predicted that FFVII characters would suck it up and Ryu Hayabusa would follow suit, but oh well. I think I then had either Kefka or Lara in R2, not sure who. What's even more stupid is that I initially had Draven beating Jak, though to be fair that wouldn't have happened without the single biggest rally ever seen in contests. Also at least the board helped me get Crash right.

I also picked Vincent over Sonic out of fanboyism for the former. I would have done the same with Aeris over Shepard, but that just didn't sound right.
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#260 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 7/26/2013 10:50:07 AM | message detail
My best guess is that Ryu's presence is affecting things and more Zack votes than Kefka votes are going to him. I mean, things can change since 2010 of course, but Zack lost to Mega Man with pretty much the same amount Kefka lost to Bowser, so this definitely comes out of left field.
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#261 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 10:52:06 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Sprite Kefka upsetting Sprite Snake could mean a Crono/Cloud/Kefka semi, which (in mine and red sox's dreamworld) leads to an SFF upset and a Crono/Mario/Link final, which leads to...


Link getting mega rSFF'd for the epickest showdown ever?
#262 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 10:52:28 AM | message detail
Also both Vincent and Ryu Hayabusa took huge seeding drops and both massively disappointed in their matches.

So...hey Altair, how are YOU safe?
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#263 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 10:52:57 AM | message detail
I think I must have started smoking something because later in the bracket I have Big Boss defeating Link.

THEN BIG BOSS AND SOLID SNAKE LOSING TO MARIO

UGHHH WHAT HAVE I BEEN SMOKING BOARD 8!?
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#264 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/26/2013 10:53:31 AM | message detail
......KEFKAAAAAAAAAAAA
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#265 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 10:54:05 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
I think I must have started smoking something because later in the bracket I have Big Boss defeating Link.

THEN BIG BOSS AND SOLID SNAKE LOSING TO MARIO

UGHHH WHAT HAVE I BEEN SMOKING BOARD 8!?


The best stuff, pass it over man.
#266 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 10:54:29 AM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
On the other hand, I feel as if Halo has never been particularly big since Halo 3 (or at least ODST), thanks to a certain other franchise becoming the big thing in that genre.


Call of Duty Dog for Character Battle 2014!


And hey, what series do the two highest-seeded characters from the 2010 bracket who failed to make this contest hail from?

That was meant to be an argument for why Master Chief could benefit in similar fashion to Crash and Spyro, by the way.
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#267 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 10:57:23 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
raginbull911 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
On the other hand, I feel as if Halo has never been particularly big since Halo 3 (or at least ODST), thanks to a certain other franchise becoming the big thing in that genre.


Call of Duty Dog for Character Battle 2014!


And hey, what series do the two highest-seeded characters from the 2010 bracket who failed to make this contest hail from?

That was meant to be an argument for why Master Chief could benefit in similar fashion to Crash and Spyro, by the way.


One word LMS: XBONE(R).
#268 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:58:40 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
F***ing ugh at this match. There goes my first Round 3 person. God damn you Kefka. I'd be more okay with this if it wasn't f***ing trolled by Kefka again.


Oh my God. *throws bracket out the window*

Well, I'm still having fun with this result.
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#269 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:58:48 AM | message detail
Zack broke 33%

He's trying hard, folks.
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#270 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 11:00:16 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
SliceSabre posted...
I think I must have started smoking something because later in the bracket I have Big Boss defeating Link.

THEN BIG BOSS AND SOLID SNAKE LOSING TO MARIO

UGHHH WHAT HAVE I BEEN SMOKING BOARD 8!?


The best stuff, pass it over man.

No its mine.

I knew it was the good stuff when I had Chie beating Draven and Chrom beating the Boss and Heavy.
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#271 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 11:03:15 AM | message detail
I seriously laughed at ExTha's post before going "...wait a minute."

I checked my bracket, saw Zack in Round 3, paused, and laughed even harder. Only Kefka.

Only. God damn. Kefka.
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#272 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/26/2013 11:03:18 AM | message detail
Ryu, what the hell are you doing?!
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#273 | paulg235 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:03:54 AM | message detail
Zack could still end up winning the match if Kefka's bad day vote starts showing, so he's still got a chance.
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#274 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:04:17 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
turbopuns posted...
Karma Hunter, I understand that analyzing matches and watching trends from year to year helps people make informed decisions. But look at it from a casual's perspective.

I didn't have any knowledge of the stats or these characters' previous matches. I can't tell you a list of all the games Kefka and Zack have made appearances in, much less how popular any of those games were. But I am a gamer and have a general knowledge of how popular FFVI and FFVII are on the Internet, and the sort of people who frequent gameFAQs. So I look at the two and pick Kefka with a good deal of confidence. Now it looks like I'm right and you're saying "well you just got lucky".

No. I used what knowledge I had to predict the result, and I predicted correctly. I don't think "luck" has as much to do with it as the fact that there are some imperfections in the stats that can't easily be predicted or accounted for from one contest to the next.


You're being ridiculous. You're saying that "common sense" is better than detailed study of these contests. Common sense is what the board had in 2002 (I won't say "we"; I was pretty much only a lurker back then). And after studying what happened, every single one of us who has been here for 11 years would wreck our 2002 selves in ability to predict these things. "Common sense" only gets you so far. Heck, "common sense" will tell you that Mario is untouchable in these things, not that he gets almost doubled by Link. "Common sense" might be useful in being a top casual, but it won't put you near anyone on the board.

Here's a challenge: go through the old brackets from 2004 onwards and make your picks based on what you think common sense is. Then see how badly you would have lost to the Guru consensus. It's not even close.


Common sense made me one of those 3.17% that picked Charizard over Bowser
Common sense sometimes pays off
#275 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 11:06:57 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Zack could still end up winning the match if Kefka's bad day vote starts showing, so he's still got a chance.



dropping a 600+ vote lead?
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#276 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:07:31 AM | message detail
Think this match can help us know if Dante is going to be weaker now after DMC?
It wasn't a bad game review-wise,but people still hate the new Dante
If he gets a old Dante picture,do you think he is going to be weaker thanks to that game or stronger? (or same,whatever)
#277 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 11:07:40 AM | message detail
I have a hard time seeing the "common sense" in Charizard > Bowser. Common sense goes like this:

"Charizard is an awesome Pokemon, but Bowser is the most iconic video game villain ever, and Mario is more popular than Pokemon anyway. Guess I'll pick Bowza!"
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#278 | paulg235 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:07:42 AM | message detail
Currently a little under 400 votes, but it's still under the realm of possibility.
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#279 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:07:46 AM | message detail
Does anyone have the Contest Bingo thing? Wasn't there something about Kefka in there? If not, there should be.
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#280 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:08:36 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
paulg235 posted...
Zack could still end up winning the match if Kefka's bad day vote starts showing, so he's still got a chance.



dropping a 600+ vote lead?


He has 370 on Zack and 700 on Ryu.. not sure where you're getting the 600+ from. Kefka's been stalled between 350-380 for a few splits now.
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#281 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:09:11 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Zack could still end up winning the match if Kefka's bad day vote starts showing, so he's still got a chance.


Terra was surprisingly stable in her match with other Nintendo characters (possibly due to Dissidia?) so I'm going to assume Kefka SHOULD be pretty stable as well
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#282 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 11:09:18 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Think this match can help us know if Dante is going to be weaker now after DMC?
It wasn't a bad game review-wise,but people still hate the new Dante
If he gets a old Dante picture,do you think he is going to be weaker thanks to that game or stronger? (or same,whatever)


I don't think this is games here. Ryu Hayabusa is sharing more with Zack than Kefka and it's hurting both of them. Ryu H is getting slowly LPF'd but he hasn't folded as hard as Zack needs to really start cleaning house.
#283 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:09:50 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Does anyone have the Contest Bingo thing? Wasn't there something about Kefka in there? If not, there should be.


something about how his matches MAKE NO GODDAMN SENSE

which admittedly is a part of the reason why I took him
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#284 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:10:51 AM | message detail
Common sense made me one of those 3.17% that picked Charizard over Bowser
Common sense sometimes pays off


There is no common sense in the world where Charizard > Bowser
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#285 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 11:11:25 AM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
SliceSabre posted...
paulg235 posted...
Zack could still end up winning the match if Kefka's bad day vote starts showing, so he's still got a chance.



dropping a 600+ vote lead?


He has 370 on Zack and 700 on Ryu.. not sure where you're getting the 600+ from. Kefka's been stalled between 350-380 for a few splits now.


Oh man I'm looking at it cross-eyed, nevermind.

But Zack still isn't winning. Kefka will not dropp this lead like Ike almost did with his
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#286 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 7/26/2013 11:11:25 AM | message detail
Wow, this board has me convinced that Kefka would be getting last place. I'm hoping that most people made the same mistake so everyone will lose points here.
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#287 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:14:23 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I have a hard time seeing the "common sense" in Charizard > Bowser. Common sense goes like this:

"Charizard is an awesome Pokemon, but Bowser is the most iconic video game villain ever, and Mario is more popular than Pokemon anyway. Guess I'll pick Bowza!"


More like
The most popular Pokemon people has nostalgia for,a fresh face in those contests and who the hell doesn't like Charizard
#288 | Lopen | Posted 7/26/2013 11:16:12 AM | message detail
Ryu H should have the best day vote of the three, Kefka should have the worst by far. I think any permutation of placement is still on the table here, but with lower vote totals it's hard not to side with Kefka.
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#289 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:16:15 AM | message detail
Alright I'm off to bed. When I wake up early morning I'm fully expecting for a ZACK comeback. Don't disappoint me GameFAQs.
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#290 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:16:16 AM | message detail
I really want Kefka to win, both for my bracket and because Kefka is one of the best characters in gaming, contest history be damned. What's really scary though is the regional results for the Far East which will likely affect the last few hours of voting.

Russia:
Kefka: 22.58%
Zack: 51.61%
Ryu: 25.81%

Indonesia:
Kefka: 12.5%
Zack: 71.88%
Ryu: 15.63%

Philippines:
Kefka: 28.85%
Zack: 59.62%
Ryu: 11.54%

Malaysia:
Kefka: 23.08%
Zack: 46.15%
Ryu: 30.77%

Australia:
Kefka: 37.5%
Zack: 35.94%
Ryu: 26.56%
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#291 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:17:28 AM | message detail
Wow, this board has me convinced that Kefka would be getting last place. I'm hoping that most people made the same mistake so everyone will lose points here.

Best use of the bank, hopefully I leapfrog a few people.
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#292 | Lopen | Posted 7/26/2013 11:17:51 AM | message detail
For the record my money's on Kefka > Ryu H > Zack here.
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#293 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:17:51 AM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
I really want Kefka to win, both for my bracket and because Kefka is one of the best characters in gaming, contest history be damned. What's really scary though is the regional results for the Far East which will likely affect the last few hours of voting.

Russia:
Kefka: 22.58%
Zack: 51.61%
Ryu: 25.81%

Indonesia:
Kefka: 12.5%
Zack: 71.88%
Ryu: 15.63%

Philippines:
Kefka: 28.85%
Zack: 59.62%
Ryu: 11.54%

Malaysia:
Kefka: 23.08%
Zack: 46.15%
Ryu: 30.77%

Australia:
Kefka: 37.5%
Zack: 35.94%
Ryu: 26.56%



Kefka just has to captialize a pretty good lead with the lead he has in the US and the BIG lead he has in Canada
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#294 | GloryChaos | Posted 7/26/2013 11:18:29 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I have a hard time seeing the "common sense" in Charizard > Bowser. Common sense goes like this:

"Charizard is an awesome Pokemon, but Bowser is the most iconic video game villain ever, and Mario is more popular than Pokemon anyway. Guess I'll pick Bowza!"


More like
The most popular Pokemon people has nostalgia for,a fresh face in those contests and who the hell doesn't like Charizard


Plenty of people don't like him. Make a Charizard topic on any of the pokemon boards here and you'll get replies of "He's so overrated!" and "He sucks in OU, UU, and NU. Garbage pokemon."
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#295 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:18:56 AM | message detail
More like
The most popular Pokemon people has nostalgia for,a fresh face in those contests and who the hell doesn't like Charizard


But it's freakin Bowser, Mario > Pokemon etc., there is no reason other than I like Charizard more so I'm going with him which is not common sense.
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#296 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/26/2013 11:19:00 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
Sorry turbo, don't take any offense to it. When we get blindsided like this, even the slightest insinuation that we're being mocked is likely to cause the sort of reaction you just got.

WHY IS NO ONE EXPLAINING WHAT HAPPENED TO RYU H HE SHOULD BE DOMINATING FFFF


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3752
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3831

Because Ryu sucked in 2010.

Anyway, YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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#297 | Whupassman | Posted 7/26/2013 11:19:02 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I have a hard time seeing the "common sense" in Charizard > Bowser. Common sense goes like this:

"Charizard is an awesome Pokemon, but Bowser is the most iconic video game villain ever, and Mario is more popular than Pokemon anyway. Guess I'll pick Bowza!"


More like
The most popular Pokemon people has nostalgia for,a fresh face in those contests and who the hell doesn't like Charizard


Hipsters!

*runs*
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#298 | Kibago | Posted 7/26/2013 11:19:55 AM | message detail
Common sense for zard/bowser = HGSS release
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#299 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:21:15 AM | message detail
Common sense for zard/bowser = HGSS release

Sounds like stats to me.

>_>
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#300 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 11:21:42 AM | message detail
Whoa Kefka up to +413.
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