Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1079

#101 | xp1337 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:50:04 AM | message detail
I don't expect Seifer to be all that strong either. I just thought he'd be strong enough to deal with Celes!

Now I'm not so sure!
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#102 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 9:50:22 AM | message detail
If the Old Square 'overperformances' are just them legitimizing their past strength, then Seifer might still be in good shape because Celes' strength was...well, pretty awful!
#103 | Xuxon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:50:43 AM | message detail
Locke didn't look very strong, i still think Celes takes third easily
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#104 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:50:56 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Am I totally crazy for starting to wonder about Seifer/Celes now? I still have complete confidence in Knuckles winning but the match between those two just got more interesting to me.


I'd have no confidence in Seifer finishing 2nd there anyway. With the way Sonic characters have looked so far I'd be very surprised if Knuckles could lose to Celes, let alone with SFF involved.
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#105 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 7/26/2013 9:50:59 AM | message detail
What da FAQ Kefka?
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#106 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/26/2013 9:51:16 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
spooky96 posted...
I'm thinking Skyrim dude> Tifa.

Seems correct.

RIP spooky96's bracket.


I thought this was a given before the contest started. But it does look better now, I guess.

I mean, yeah FFVII and all...but it's Skyrim.

Skyrim. I mean come on now.


Games =/= characters. Skyrim would be extremely strong in a games contest but I'm not expecting much out of Dragonborn. Characters that don't really have much "set" characterization don't do well. It's kind of like how Gordon Freeman was worthless before HL2, because he was barely even referred to by name and stuff. "Dragonborn" isn't even a name. I wanted to learn more about the character, so I went to the Elder Scrolls wiki and looked up "Dragonborn". It's apparently a type of person, "a rare individual who has been born with the blood and soul of a Dragon, but the body of a mortal, and can naturally learn and speak their ancient and powerful tongue." The protagonist of Skyrim is "the Last Dragonborn". So I guess he/she wasn't even really nominated under the correct name.

Appearance

Skyrim's trailers and concept art depict the Dragonborn as a male Nord with brown hair and a short beard, wearing a studded armor, and iron helmet, gauntlets, and boots. In another trailer, the Dragonborn uses a steel sword and a banded iron shield, and in another, he dual wields a steel sword and a steel dagger. In Skyrim, as with all Elder Scrolls games, race, gender, and equipment are left to the player's discretion.


And again, there's that last sentence. Race and gender are left to the player's discretion. While Shepard has managed to make this work okay for him/her, I have trouble expecting great things out of such highly customizable characters.

I could be completely wrong. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. But I don't think the Skyrim protagonist will be anywhere near as strong in a character battle as the game itself would be in a games contest.
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#107 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:51:29 AM | message detail
Kefka has over FIFTY percent of the vote in Canada.

Canada loves FFVI for whatever reason.
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#108 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/26/2013 9:51:36 AM | message detail
After how much Rinoa sucked it up I wouldn't have much faith in Seifer at all. It's more a contest of who sucks more between Celes and Seifer.
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#109 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 9:51:37 AM | message detail
Zack Fair should not be doing so well against Kefka.

Is SFF coming into play here or are the people that would liek either character too far apart due to the nature of both characters?
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#110 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:52:01 AM | message detail
Zack recovers from the dip slightly. He has to turn North Am around to win though! And that's gonna be hard...real hard.
#111 | Osfan | Posted 7/26/2013 9:52:20 AM | message detail
So is Rydia at the top of the Strongest characters to not win a contest match list? I'm trying to think of who else could be up there...
#112 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:52:30 AM | message detail
Hell yeah mah boy Ryu be cutting
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#113 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:52:30 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Kefka has over FIFTY percent of the vote in Canada.

Canada loves FFVI for whatever reason.


Damn right we do!

Also, Kefka +25 on Zack last split.
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#114 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 9:52:49 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
turbopuns posted...
spooky96 posted...
I'm thinking Skyrim dude> Tifa.

Seems correct.

RIP spooky96's bracket.


I thought this was a given before the contest started. But it does look better now, I guess.

I mean, yeah FFVII and all...but it's Skyrim.

Skyrim. I mean come on now.


Games =/= characters. Skyrim would be extremely strong in a games contest but I'm not expecting much out of Dragonborn. Characters that don't really have much "set" characterization don't do well. It's kind of like how Gordon Freeman was worthless before HL2, because he was barely even referred to by name and stuff. "Dragonborn" isn't even a name. I wanted to learn more about the character, so I went to the Elder Scrolls wiki and looked up "Dragonborn". It's apparently a type of person, "a rare individual who has been born with the blood and soul of a Dragon, but the body of a mortal, and can naturally learn and speak their ancient and powerful tongue." The protagonist of Skyrim is "the Last Dragonborn". So I guess he/she wasn't even really nominated under the correct name.

Appearance

Skyrim's trailers and concept art depict the Dragonborn as a male Nord with brown hair and a short beard, wearing a studded armor, and iron helmet, gauntlets, and boots. In another trailer, the Dragonborn uses a steel sword and a banded iron shield, and in another, he dual wields a steel sword and a steel dagger. In Skyrim, as with all Elder Scrolls games, race, gender, and equipment are left to the player's discretion.


And again, there's that last sentence. Race and gender are left to the player's discretion. While Shepard has managed to make this work okay for him/her, I have trouble expecting great things out of such highly customizable characters.

I could be completely wrong. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. But I don't think the Skyrim protagonist will be anywhere near as strong in a character battle as the game itself would be in a games contest.


This is great and all, but I don't think you're considering that Skyrim fans will see dragonborn and recognize it and vote him because they like skyrim. You are making it way too complicated.
#115 | TheOneAboveAll (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/26/2013 9:53:02 AM | message detail
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...
#116 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:53:44 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
North America is killing Zack right now.

Kefka has over FIFTY percent of the vote in Canada.


Most of that is coming at Ryu's expense. The Xbox 360 is not as strong in Canada compared to the US and that affects Ryu's performance in Canada.
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#117 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:00 AM | message detail
Ugh, I hate Kefka so much. Thanks for the -6 in Expert and the 3 lost bracket points, you stupid clown.
Why is he suddenly stronger than Zack? Why can't that clown ever make sense?
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#118 | LOLContests | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:03 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
LOLContests posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
It's good that character strength is dynamic, it's just strange when the ones boosting are playstation characters from 15 years ago and old square from 20 years ago. Even Pokemon took a good 10 years for it to do anything on the site.


None of the PS platformer characters really increased that we know of thoughl. Their opponents were just weaker than we thought. Crash looked just as good in 2003 in 2010 for example (2003 KOS-MOS = 2010 Ryu H. probably, more or less.)


Well nothing conclusive has happened in this contest until its over but its a fair assumption that there's some sort of trend present when Crash/Spyro/Jak/Ratchet/Lara all perform better than expected, that one trend being true seems a lot more realistic than 10 other characters all being weaker than expected.


Crash and Ratchet looked pretty good last contest, nothing really changed there. When has Jak ever looked bad, Yoshi match aside? Not to mention the fact that Lara just had a new well-received game this year, so she's not reall a character "from" 10 years ago.
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#119 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:07 AM | message detail
Osfan posted...
So is Rydia at the top of the Strongest characters to not win a contest match list? I'm trying to think of who else could be up there...


Kain Highwind.
#120 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:22 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...


Sums up my point nicely about not paying attention to the details.
#121 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:35 AM | message detail
Oh you people with '10 years of analyzing contests' and 'Kefka chokes every single time'

it is known
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#122 | xp1337 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:54:50 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
xp1337 posted...
Am I totally crazy for starting to wonder about Seifer/Celes now? I still have complete confidence in Knuckles winning but the match between those two just got more interesting to me.


I'd have no confidence in Seifer finishing 2nd there anyway. With the way Sonic characters have looked so far I'd be very surprised if Knuckles could lose to Celes, let alone with SFF involved.

Maybe I wasn't clear. I have always had complete confidence in Knuckles in that match. What I meant was I took Seifer > Celes without thinking too much and now I'm wondering if it merits thinking. ...Or maybe if it should have before.
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#123 | redrocket | Posted 7/26/2013 9:55:08 AM | message detail
Kefka: So... you think you hit me!? That was simply my shadow!
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#124 | Xuxon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:56:03 AM | message detail
From: Osfan | Posted: 7/26/2013 12:52:20 PM | #111
So is Rydia at the top of the Strongest characters to not win a contest match list? I'm trying to think of who else could be up there...

Cecil, for now
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#125 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:01 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Osfan | Posted: 7/26/2013 12:52:20 PM | #111
So is Rydia at the top of the Strongest characters to not win a contest match list? I'm trying to think of who else could be up there...

Cecil, for now


I think he's talking characters who aren't getting their shot during this contest.
#126 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:09 AM | message detail
Well, this is a good result for you Gilgamesh > Booker people
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#127 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:10 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
If Kefka wins, I'll go ahead and say we're seeing a case of rSFF here. Zack is stronger overall, but the FF fanbase prefer Kefka above him, so while Zack has more support from the outside, the fact that the fanbase prefer Kefka will be what gives him the win.


Hmm, I didn't even consider that idea when I saw this result.
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#128 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:10 AM | message detail
Last split Kefka +20 to Zack, Zack -1 to Ryu.

Pack it up folks.
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#129 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:20 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...


Sums up my point nicely about not paying attention to the details.


Real talk, I have Kefka and you're out of your mind. Ragging on the stats is all well and good but I'm positive you've been on the wrong side more often than they have, unless you've won a whole slew of contests that I'm not aware of.
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#130 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:33 AM | message detail
Oh you people with '10 years of analyzing contests' and 'Kefka chokes every single time'

it is known


Kefka loves to screw with the board, you have a better chance with him by going against the board consensus
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#131 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/26/2013 9:57:40 AM | message detail
Good to see the rightful winner winning, even if I took ZackFAQs in the lolbracket
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#132 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 9:58:21 AM | message detail
Wait...some people had Kefka not winning? Was that the popular opinion? Because I have Kefka winning in my bracket because....I dunno seemed obvious.
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#133 | anondum | Posted 7/26/2013 9:59:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
yeah. that's almost like declaring a match over because of the board vote. we've already seen a much bigger come back. a 300 vote difference for FF7 after the power hour isn't much, honestly.
#134 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:58:42 AM | message detail
FFVII is weaker, just didn't think Hayabusa would go down with him.
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#135 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 9:59:02 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
turbopuns posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...


Sums up my point nicely about not paying attention to the details.


Real talk, I have Kefka and you're out of your mind. Ragging on the stats is all well and good but I'm positive you've been on the wrong side more often than they have, unless you've won a whole slew of contests that I'm not aware of.


Real talk, I don't think you even know what my point was that I'm referring to.

I said "it's times like these" when it pays off. I never claimed to be the master of the contest or anything.
#136 | xp1337 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:59:56 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
Wait...some people had Kefka not winning? Was that the popular opinion? Because I have Kefka winning in my bracket because....I dunno seemed obvious.

Most people here had Kefka not winning. And it was an extremely popular opinion.

Casuals going to wreck the board in prediction percentage in this match.
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#137 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/26/2013 10:00:12 AM | message detail
The most surprising thing is probably both FF reps being above Ryu H.

Though it's definitely possible he's weakened since NG3 got terrible reception.
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#138 | paulg235 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:00:29 AM | message detail
*votes in poll*

*Sees results*

WTF KEFKA IS WINNING? XD LOL ZACKFAQS
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#139 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:01:25 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Well, this is a good result for you Gilgamesh > Booker people


Don't pursue LU BU!!!

Being a fan of DW i can only hope
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#140 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2013 10:01:33 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
turbopuns posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...


Sums up my point nicely about not paying attention to the details.


Real talk, I have Kefka and you're out of your mind. Ragging on the stats is all well and good but I'm positive you've been on the wrong side more often than they have, unless you've won a whole slew of contests that I'm not aware of.


Real talk, I don't think you even know what my point was that I'm referring to.

I said "it's times like these" when it pays off. I never claimed to be the master of the contest or anything.


No, I was referring to exactly that.

There's plenty of deceptively 'obvious' results that the board consensus will save you from annihilating your bracket on - specifically, most every other time Kefka's bombed in the past! Obviously this Kefka wouldn't do anything humiliating like lose to Tommy Vercetti now, and I took him full in mind that it was a crazy-ish pick - but times like these are called "getting lucky".
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#141 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 10:01:57 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
SliceSabre posted...
Wait...some people had Kefka not winning? Was that the popular opinion? Because I have Kefka winning in my bracket because....I dunno seemed obvious.

Most people here had Kefka not winning. And it was an extremely popular opinion.

Casuals going to wreck the board in prediction percentage in this match.


Just like last year.

Why do we always underestimate Kefka again?
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#142 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 10:02:07 AM | message detail
Not at 300 votes yet. Next update will probably do it, but it's a sight for sore eyes to see Zack end Kefka's power hour with a diminished gain.
#143 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:02:12 AM | message detail
Last split:

Kefka +10 to Zack
Zack +27 to Ryu
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#144 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/26/2013 10:02:36 AM | message detail
First hour is over. Kefka leads by 294. Currently got 54.57% against Zack. Hmm......
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#145 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/26/2013 10:03:00 AM | message detail
Zack's popularity was one of the weirdest things to me in the 2010 contest as well

If you told me before that contest that he was going to do better than Cid Highwind I would never believe you
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#146 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 10:04:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
turbopuns posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
turbopuns posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
So when I filled out my bracket I had Kefka going two rounds because it was obvious. I changed that to Zack going two rounds 3 days before the tournament started because anyone with knowledge of past contests knows that Zack should kill Kefka.

Oops...


Sums up my point nicely about not paying attention to the details.


Real talk, I have Kefka and you're out of your mind. Ragging on the stats is all well and good but I'm positive you've been on the wrong side more often than they have, unless you've won a whole slew of contests that I'm not aware of.


Real talk, I don't think you even know what my point was that I'm referring to.

I said "it's times like these" when it pays off. I never claimed to be the master of the contest or anything.


No, I was referring to exactly that.

There's plenty of deceptively 'obvious' results that the board consensus will save you from annihilating your bracket on - specifically, most every other time Kefka's bombed in the past! Obviously this Kefka wouldn't do anything humiliating like lose to Tommy Vercetti now, and I took him full in mind that it was a crazy-ish pick - but times like these are called "getting lucky".


OK then I don't understand your thought process at all.

B8 picks Zack.

Casuals pick Kefka.

Kefka wins.

"It's times like these that it pays off to be a casual."

"No, you're wrong."

...what?
#147 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/26/2013 10:03:12 AM | message detail
What the hell...

I had Ryu H winning this and didn't really think much about it. I was positive Zack and Kefka would kill each other.

F***ing Kefka, man..
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#148 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/26/2013 10:03:30 AM | message detail
Zack gained percentage on Kefka, but lost votes. Once again, I'll be stupid and believe that he'll continue to gain percentage because then eventually he'll start cutting too. And I'll likely be disappointed once more!
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#149 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/26/2013 10:03:44 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
SliceSabre posted...
Wait...some people had Kefka not winning? Was that the popular opinion? Because I have Kefka winning in my bracket because....I dunno seemed obvious.

Most people here had Kefka not winning. And it was an extremely popular opinion.

Casuals going to wreck the board in prediction percentage in this match.

Wow, just wow.

I actually didn't expect that.
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#150 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/26/2013 10:04:06 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
xp1337 posted...
SliceSabre posted...
Wait...some people had Kefka not winning? Was that the popular opinion? Because I have Kefka winning in my bracket because....I dunno seemed obvious.

Most people here had Kefka not winning. And it was an extremely popular opinion.

Casuals going to wreck the board in prediction percentage in this match.


Just like last year.

Why do we always underestimate Kefka again?


Always underestimate? Plenty of people had Kefka>Vercetti, Kefka>Diablo and were horrified to see him nearly lose to Pac-man.
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