Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1079

#51 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:34:56 AM | message detail
sadly Dissidia 012 isn't PS3 playable or else I'm sure it'd be more played right now

you can connect to the PS3 to use Ad Hoc Party to play online but you stil have to play on the PSP
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#52 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:35:19 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
There's also the fact that Dissidia had been out for less than half a year before the 2010 contest. It might not have reached max permeation by then.

Combined with the fact that there was another Dissidia game released since then as well.


Dissidia came out in 2009 (in the US) according to this page:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/psp/939394-dissidia-final-fantasy/data
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#53 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:35:21 AM | message detail
You know, if you think Zack's numbers against Mega Man are inflated because it was a night match (and the European vote is never kind to Mega Man) and that Mega Man's numbers against Ryu are inflated due to the picture, then Zack and Ryu are, more or less, even in strength here. Hmmm.....
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#54 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 9:35:42 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
I'm thinking Skyrim dude> Tifa.

Seems correct.

RIP spooky96's bracket.


It definitely does now, especially since Tifa will likely have to deal with Yuna. Man, the entire FFVII team has early threats to deal with, and it'll look so pathetic for the series if they fall in most of them.

Aeris: Shepard (Shepard is a big favorite now)
Vincent: Mewtwo (I'll grant Vincent favorite status still, but it's not nearly the crazy upset it was two weeks ago)
Tifa: Dragonborn (Dragonborn is an unknown, but if Tifa has to deal with new Square SFF, whoa boy)
Sephiroth: Kirby (same as Vincent/Mewtwo)




Cloud: ...Squirtle
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#55 | Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 7/26/2013 9:36:20 AM | message detail
Fellow Board 8ers:

I know today is probably a bad day for your brackets and expert challenges. I feel your pain, I'm getting wrecked too.

But let's look at it this way: This match was not supposed to go this way. The board though it had these characters figured out, and then something crazy happened: the characters changed in strength. We've had problems with strength stagnation before, to the extent that we rallied around L-Block to win a contest. This isn't just a win for those who picked Kefka, or for Kefka fans. This is a win for fans of great contest upsets and those who want the contests to be less predictable in general. Remember how bland and cookie-cutter the Rivalry Rumble was? This match is a stark departure from that. I wasn't around back then, but those who were talk of the unmatched magic of the Summer 2002 contest. Today, we got a little bit of that indescribale Summer 2002 contest magic. There's no reason for Kefka to be doing this, but somehow he did. Everyone who roots for any character in these contests (and we all do) has a dream that their character will get put in a winnable match with a chance to pull an awesome upset. For one match, for one day, it happened. And that's going to help keep that dream alive for all of us, no matter who we root for.

tl;dr It's better for the contest if some characters change in strength over the years so that cool matches like this can happen.
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#56 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:36:45 AM | message detail
Slowing down...down...down. Is Zack clinging to hope? Are those DMW reels refusing to break?!
#57 | ZFS | Posted 7/26/2013 9:36:46 AM | message detail
Ha, Kefka too good.
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#58 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/26/2013 9:37:26 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
There's also the fact that Dissidia had been out for less than half a year before the 2010 contest. It might not have reached max permeation by then.

Combined with the fact that there was another Dissidia game released since then as well.


Dissidia came out in 2009 (in the US) according to this page:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/psp/939394-dissidia-final-fantasy/data


I know. It was at the very end of August though.

The 2010 contest started in January.
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#59 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 9:38:10 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
If FFVII weakened so much
What does that say about Ryu and Ninja Gaiden...?
Losing here to FF SFF + the fact that people believe FFVII popularity crashed means he is really weak now..


Since last character battle, Ryu Hayabusa got a big new game. This is how it was received:

http://www.metacritic.com/game/playstation-3/ninja-gaiden-3

Thankfully it received an updated rerelease just a short while later. This is how that was received:

http://www.metacritic.com/game/wii-u/ninja-gaiden-3-razors-edge

I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions.

But yeah, watch out Samus and Leon!
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#60 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/26/2013 9:38:24 AM | message detail
Well f***

Guess I'm switching to Cecil
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#61 | red sox 777 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:38:56 AM | message detail
Zack's initial 5 minutes are good relative to his first hour, but he's still got most of the FFVII trends- meaning his first hour is his worst.
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#62 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:39:11 AM | message detail
Current results for the US right now:

Kefka 39.17%
Zack Fair 28.9%
Ryu Hayabusa 31.93%

If those percentages remain stable here, Ryu could pull a comeback on Zack when Europe goes to sleep, since Ryu is weak in Europe because the Xbox 360 is weak there.
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#63 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:39:16 AM | message detail
TBH
If we ask FF fans which character they prefer,Kefka or Zack- I believe 70% will say Kefka..if not more
#64 | Ex-Kefiroth | Posted 7/26/2013 9:39:30 AM | message detail
#65 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 9:40:54 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
I'm thinking Skyrim dude> Tifa.

Seems correct.

RIP spooky96's bracket.


I thought this was a given before the contest started. But it does look better now, I guess.

I mean, yeah FFVII and all...but it's Skyrim.

Skyrim. I mean come on now.
#66 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/26/2013 9:40:55 AM | message detail
While I agree that FF7 is getting weaker...stop looking at this strictly in terms of FF7 getting weaker. FF6 has looked really good this contest. (Rydia looked good too, but then again, TJF. Still switching my Expert Challenge bracket over to have Cecil winning his match, though.)

You really should consider switching from Knuckles > Seifer > Celes to Knuckles > Celes > Seifer.
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#67 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:41:15 AM | message detail
It's good that character strength is dynamic, it's just strange when the ones boosting are playstation characters from 15 years ago and old square from 20 years ago. Even Pokemon took a good 10 years for it to do anything on the site.
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#68 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:41:39 AM | message detail
uh oh a cut
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#69 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/26/2013 9:41:47 AM | message detail
Cecil is probably going to win his match in a blowout.

Old Square has looked ridiculously good this contest, sans Locke.
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#70 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2013 9:41:56 AM | message detail
INFALLIBLE bracket

Guys. I'm trying to help. No one wants to see Mewtwo > Vincent happen less than me but it's going to happen
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#71 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
FF6 has looked really good this contest.


Locke still looked awful though

I would say it's a Dissidia thing
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#72 | TheOneAboveAll (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:17 AM | message detail
Time for fun with stats.

This match means that Bowser>Mega Man, and by a decent margin too. Which, of course, means that Vincent>Sonic was the wrong pick. Everyone should have Bowser>Sonic.
#73 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:17 AM | message detail
THE CUT! THE CUT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbXVNKtmWnc

vs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOJ91H4mraU

The time is now! Death or glory! SELECT YOUR THEME!
#74 | pyresword | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:32 AM | message detail
A 16 vote cut by Zack there. Maybe this isn't over after all?
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#75 | redrocket | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:46 AM | message detail
200 VOTE BARRIER ACTIVATED
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#76 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:42:57 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
TBH
If we ask FF fans which character they prefer,Kefka or Zack- I believe 70% will say Kefka..if not more


That's the thing....if there were no stats to go off of and this was the first character battle in GameFAQs history, I probably would have picked Kefka knowing that he's more loved among the general FF fanbase than Zack.
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#77 | gearofages | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:06 AM | message detail
Kefka beats Lara and Altair, right?
#78 | armitage999 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:24 AM | message detail
Kefka winning pleases me so much. Someday the other pre-FF7 guys will perform well.... or maybe not.
#79 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:42 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
INFALLIBLE bracket

Guys. I'm trying to help. No one wants to see Mewtwo > Vincent happen less than me but it's going to happen


I can certainly see Mewtwo giving Vincent a hard time to win.
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#80 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/26/2013 9:43:56 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
FF6 has looked really good this contest.


Locke still looked awful though

I would say it's a Dissidia thing


Doesn't explain Rydia looking so good against two decent midcarders.
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#81 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/26/2013 9:44:28 AM | message detail
Cut him down Zack! Use that Buster Sword to cut him down!

If Kefka wins, I'll go ahead and say we're seeing a case of rSFF here. Zack is stronger overall, but the FF fanbase prefer Kefka above him, so while Zack has more support from the outside, the fact that the fanbase prefer Kefka will be what gives him the win.
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#82 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/26/2013 9:44:30 AM | message detail
If this was Zack inheriting FF7 anti-voting then he can still win, I guess
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#83 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:44:38 AM | message detail
gearofages posted...
Kefka beats Lara and Altair, right?


assuming he wins should be pretty easy
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#84 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2013 9:45:30 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
FF6 has looked really good this contest.


Locke still looked awful though

I would say it's a Dissidia thing


Doesn't explain Rydia looking so good against two decent midcarders.


Rydia's always looked good (and how!), even pre-Dissidia. She beat Fenix, remember?
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#85 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:03 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
If this was Zack inheriting FF7 anti-voting then he can still win, I guess


Kefka has been falling and falling with each subsequent update, while Zack stays stable. This is Power Hour voting, through and through. If this keeps up...if this keeps up...!
#86 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:04 AM | message detail
If this was any other character than Kefka, DK or someone from CT I'd say the swing needed for such a dramatic collapse was way beyond realistic.
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#87 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:21 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
FF6 has looked really good this contest.


Locke still looked awful though

I would say it's a Dissidia thing


Doesn't explain Rydia looking so good against two decent midcarders.


Rydia looked good in her contest debut back in 2008, it's just that she was behind SFF from Auron and Sub-Zero was out of her league. She did beat Marcus Fenix, who beat Kefka, though...!
#88 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:27 AM | message detail
That cut was Zack surging and Kefka receiving less votes than usual....hmmm.....
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#89 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:46 AM | message detail
Dip in votes for Zack. Don't call this over yet!
#90 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 7/26/2013 9:46:56 AM | message detail
This.. This was not what I expected to come back from lunch and see.

Zack crushing or Ryu dominating the LFF.

But this?

My mind is blown.
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#91 | LOLContests | Posted 7/26/2013 9:48:14 AM | message detail | (edited)
--Smurf-- posted...
It's good that character strength is dynamic, it's just strange when the ones boosting are playstation characters from 15 years ago and old square from 20 years ago. Even Pokemon took a good 10 years for it to do anything on the site.


None of the PS platformer characters really increased that we know of thoughl. Their opponents were just weaker than we thought. Crash looked just as good in 2003 as in 2010 for example (2003 KOS-MOS = 2010 Ryu H. probably, more or less.)
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#92 | turbopuns | Posted 7/26/2013 9:47:24 AM | message detail
gearofages posted...
Kefka beats Lara and Altair, right?


*checks bracket*

Whoa. I picked that and didn't even realize it.

Also, if Kefka does win this match I will have missed exactly 2 round 1 picks in each division so far.
#93 | xp1337 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:47:56 AM | message detail
Am I totally crazy for starting to wonder about Seifer/Celes now? I still have complete confidence in Knuckles winning but the match between those two just got more interesting to me.
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#94 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:48:01 AM | message detail
Kefka is winning.Kefka is winning.What is going on?I was the 8th to vote for Zack.Then I leave.I come back and Kefka is winning.Did anyone expected that?I mean seriously?Kefka is winning!
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#95 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:48:12 AM | message detail
Kefka with the +30!!
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#96 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:48:12 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Largest Night Vote Gaps
1. Mewtwo – 21525 vs. Chester – 924 – Round 1 – 20601
2. Mewtwo – 21525 vs. Zero – 3866 – Round 1 – 17659
3. Link – 21024 vs. Tingle – 3463 – Round 1 – 17561
4. Link – 21024 vs. Isaac – 4443 – Round 1 – 16581
5. Mega Man X – 18171 vs. Welkin Gunther – 2999 – Round 1 – 15172
6. Big Boss – 17337 vs. Peacock – 2685 – Round 1 – 14652
7. Big Boss – 17337 vs. Captain Viridian – 3128 – Round 1 – 14209
8. Yoshi – 18306 vs. Demi-Fiend – 4561 – Round 1 – 13745
9. Dracula – 13906 vs. Caim – 1586 – Round 1 – 12320
10. Lara Croft – 14591 vs. Yuri Hyuga – 2535 – Round 1 – 12056

Top 10 Highest Night Individual Votes
1. Mewtwo – Round 1 – 21525
2. Link – Round 1 – 21024
3. Yoshi – Round 1 – 18775
4. Mega Man X – Round 1 – 18171
5. Big Boss – Round 1 – 17337
6. Sephiroth – Round 1 – 16179
7. Draven – Round 1 – 16081
8. Lara Croft – Round 1 – 14591
9. Spyro the Dragon – Round 1 – 14341
10. GlaDOS – Round 1 – 14259

Top 10 Lowest Night Individual Votes
1. Chester – Round 1 – 924
2. Caim – Round 1 – 1586
3. Yuri Hyuga – Round 1 – 2535
4. Peacock – Round 1 – 2685
5. Welkin Gunther – Round 1 – 2999
6. Frank West – Round 1 – 3015
7. Captain Viridian – Round 1 – 3128
8. Reyn – Round 1 – 3332
9. Tingle – Round 1 – 3463
10. Zero – Round 1 – 3866

Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers
1. Jak – Round 1 – 13191
2. Garrus Vakarian – Round 1 – 11143
3. Tiny Tina – Round 1 – 10753
4. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 10465
5. Captain Falcon – Round 1 – 10139
6. Wheatley – Round 1 – 9702
7. Marth – Round 1 – 9699
8. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 8651
9. Mordin Solus – Round 1 – 8564
10. Slime – Round 1 – 8229

Top 10 Most Predictable Matches
1. Link vs. Isaac vs. Tingle – Round 1 – 97.59%
2. Solid Snake vs. Isaac vs. Commander Keen – 94.07%
3. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Fei Fong Wong vs. Dan Hibiki – Round 1 – 93.84%
4. Big Boss vs. Captain Viridian vs. Peacock – Round 1 – 92.57%
5. Sephiroth vs. Midna vs. Little Mac – Round 1 – 91.37%
6. Luigi vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Jade – Round 1 – 89.13%
7. Mewtwo vs. Zero vs. Chester – Round 1 – 89.06%
8. Lara Croft vs. Slime vs. Yuri Hyuga – Round 1 – 86.86%
9. Mega Man X vs. Jigglypuff vs. Welkin Gunther – Round 1 – 84.25%
10. Yoshi vs. Solaire of Astora vs. Demi-Fiend – Round 1 – 83.77%
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#97 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/26/2013 9:48:14 AM | message detail
North America is killing Zack right now.

Kefka has over FIFTY percent of the vote in Canada.
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#98 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 9:49:02 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Am I totally crazy for starting to wonder about Seifer/Celes now? I still have complete confidence in Knuckles winning but the match between those two just got more interesting to me.


I'm an FF8 mark and I don't expect Seifer to be too strong. I just have zero confidence in him after his bomb in the RR.
#99 | superange128 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:49:40 AM | message detail
yeehh cut back that's the way to do it Kefka
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#100 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/26/2013 9:49:46 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
--Smurf-- posted...
It's good that character strength is dynamic, it's just strange when the ones boosting are playstation characters from 15 years ago and old square from 20 years ago. Even Pokemon took a good 10 years for it to do anything on the site.


None of the PS platformer characters really increased that we know of thoughl. Their opponents were just weaker than we thought. Crash looked just as good in 2003 in 2010 for example (2003 KOS-MOS = 2010 Ryu H. probably, more or less.)


Well nothing conclusive has happened in this contest until its over but its a fair assumption that there's some sort of trend present when Crash/Spyro/Jak/Ratchet/Lara all perform better than expected, that one trend being true seems a lot more realistic than 10 other characters all being weaker than expected.
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