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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1079
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lol ZackFAQs ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. |
Funny thing is,I has Kefka in my bracket and 3rd place in Expert challenge because of ZackFAQs At least I have Ryu in second place so maybe I can leave this match with just -2... |
I guess the only positive for me now is that I can root for Zack without reservation. If he stays in 2nd it's only a -2 for me! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I have Kefka in my bracket and EXPERT I had a feeling he would surprise again after what happened in 2010 --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
Yeah, Zack cannot come back at all. He's sharing a poll with another FF character that's largely sharing all the same trends. Ryu, though....he can make this fight for 2nd place interesting.... --- Drop it to the floor... |
LOL --- POKEFEAR |
What
a great match. I love Zack and wanted to see him become one of our new
"clutch" guys, but the day if Kefka's. Hell, these contests are Kefka's.
Not even Jill. Not even Alucard. Not even Frog. Kefka is the craziest, most f***ed up, greatest non-elite entrant in contest history. And I bow to his stupid ass. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
Kefka's not even making this fun. This will be a beatdown. |
Oh yay be last ryu. --- Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004 And then lost 7 matches in a row >_> |
Kefka doesn't even need the night to put these clowns away. Maybe clown wasn't the right word to use --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Armstrong > Cloud Chun-Li > Tifa >.> --- Now Awaiting: Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls |
Well, I may have taken Hayabusa to win, but if he bombs enough that he gets last I only lose 2 points. 'Phew' |
Another
nice gain from Kefka...he's not slowing down, dangit. How many more of
these can Zack allow before he's too far down a hole to come back up? |
Zack ain't gonna down to 3rd --- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baUY9LFlYh0 - KokorokokoroKOKOROkokoROKokoro-chan iu na http://myanimelist.net/animelist/raytan7585 |
If Ryu's not gonna win, the least he could do is get 3rd so I don't get a -6 in my Expert. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
What the heck? Where on Earth did Kefka come from? --- This is my signature. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Another nice gain from Kefka...he's not slowing down, dangit. How many more of these can Zack allow before he's too far down a hole to come back up? It's already finished. We're not gonna see a SFF-comeback of this magnitude. I'm not sure if we ever have before. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg |
No, Ryu, to win second place, you need MORE votes... Dumbass... --- Drop it to the floor... |
Wow I have been perfect this entire division, and then ill end up -6 to end it at this rate --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg Dallas Cowboys and Mavs |
pyresword posted... What the heck? Where on Earth did Kefka come from? Dissidia. Confirmed for most powerful contest boost since KHF apparently! |
my bracket is saved! (hopefully) --- Many people, of course, use 'sentimentalism' as a term of abuse for other people's decent feelings, and realism as a disguise for their own brutality. G H Hardy |
It's times like these when it really pays off to not pay close attention to X-stats and guru picks. Because everybody is so shocked by this, and I'm here like...wait, people didn't pick Kefka? |
TheOneAboveAll posted... Kefka's not even making this fun. This will be a beatdown. The fact that he's winning and destroying board expectations is fun for me even if he pulls it off it's the only upset of my upset-filled R1 bracket out of like 10 that I've gotten right so far --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
ChenKenichiFan posted... KanzarisKelshen posted...Another nice gain from Kefka...he's not slowing down, dangit. How many more of these can Zack allow before he's too far down a hole to come back up? There's no particular SFF between Old and New Square though. That's why I'm not giving it up yet. |
Also yesssss Cecil is going to win a match. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Another nice gain from Kefka...he's not slowing down, dangit. How many more of these can Zack allow before he's too far down a hole to come back up? Kefka's already won. It's nearly impossible for somebody from the same series like Zack to come back. --- Drop it to the floor... |
I
don't feel remotely bad about not picking Kefka because I would never
have gone for him in this match. I couldn't see any logical reason even
using 2k10 results which were by far Kefka's best. I suppose the only logic about it was that it would **** with the most amount of people which seems to be Kefka's style! --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
I'm thinking Skyrim dude> Tifa. Seems correct. RIP spooky96's bracket. --- Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004 And then lost 7 matches in a row >_> |
If FFVII weakened so much What does that say about Ryu and Ninja Gaiden...? Losing here to FF SFF + the fact that people believe FFVII popularity crashed means he is really weak now.. |
ShatteredElysium posted... I don't feel remotely bad about not picking Kefka because I would never have gone for him in this match. I couldn't see any logical reason even using 2k10 results which were by far Kefka's best. Same here. There's no way in hell I'd pick Kefka here unless I was doing a favorites bracket. --- Drop it to the floor... |
ShatteredElysium posted... I don't feel remotely bad about not picking Kefka because I would never have gone for him in this match. I couldn't see any logical reason even using 2k10 results which were by far Kefka's best. Yeah that's kind of how I feel. I don't think there was anyway to foresee a Kefka victory based on prior results. --- This is my signature. |
It's early still, wait for Zack to rebound. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Where is Black Turtle with the trends? Does Zach have a chance? --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg Dallas Cowboys and Mavs |
red sox 777 posted... It's early still, wait for Zack to rebound. Zack doesn't have usual FFVII trends. He has a good board vote, so he doesn't blow up from there. Hell, it was so good that Kefka has gone up since the freeze. |
Wow
Zack is barely ahead of Ryu Hayabusa. It feels so good to see Kefka
actually winning. Now to hope he keeps this up the entire match. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
This will be the biggest disaster in my expert contest so far if this keeps up. Still, glad to see Kefka doing well so far. --- http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr263/crypto_magnum/Polycosm_sig.jpg |
lightsout06 posted... Where is Black Turtle with the trends? Does Zach have a chance? Anytime the Kefka question has come up, he's been spouting Zack's performance vs Mega Man and contrasting it to Kefka's vs Bowser and saying Kefka had no chance in hell. --- I pwn you all! |
There's
also the fact that Dissidia had been out for less than half a year
before the 2010 contest. It might not have reached max permeation by
then. Combined with the fact that there was another Dissidia game released since then as well. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator] |
red sox 777 posted... It's early still, wait for Ryu H. to rebound. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
lightsout06 posted... Where is Black Turtle with the trends? Does Zach have a chance? There is one, if small. Kefka was pulling in 45 votes an update a little while back, but he's slowed down to 30 now. If this keeps up, Zack can start doing work, but he can't let Kefka go back to 45-50 vote updates. |
Well things seem to be stabilizing. Can't see Zack making a match out of this. --- http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg |
So, how are
SFF adjustments calculated, anyway? I was just reading through old
contest analyses and I saw how the 2004 contest caused some huge
problems--not adjusting Mega Man's strength due to SFF with Link
caused Snake to be massively underrated, but by doing so, Frog/Master
Chief/Liquid Snake all became overrated. How was that eventually solved?
Was it eventually solved? Did the solution involve manually adjusting Frog downwards due to "Solid S*** Factor"? (I first got on this by looking through Kefka's old matches and ended up looking at all of the matches in the Villains Contest. 2004 massively overrating Liquid seemed to be a running theme in all of his matches.) --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Then00bAvenger posted... There's also the fact that Dissidia had been out for less than half a year before the 2010 contest. It might not have reached max permeation by then. Thinking about it, Dissidia Duodecim was PS3 playable, right? So it might have had considerably more penetration than the PSP only Dissidia. |
Fun fact: on my account on which I am trying to get the lowest score possible, I will be getting a +6 on this match. I'm pretty good at this huh. --- This is my signature. |
Just a heads up, still not too late to switch to Mewtwo > Phoenix > Vincent for your expert bracket. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
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