Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1078

#351 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/26/2013 3:23:02 AM | message detail
Trend chart for the day match:

Time | Shulk | Ratchet | Altair | Votes
0:05 | 25.88% | 31.53% | 42.59% | 796
1:00 | 24.54% | 33.16% | 42.30% | 4747
2:00 | 21.77% | 32.53% | 45.70% | 3597
3:00 | 22.63% | 33.72% | 43.65% | 3001
4:00 | 22.72% | 33.38% | 43.90% | 2720
5:00 | 24.73% | 31.92% | 43.35% | 2503
6:00 | 23.24% | 32.07% | 44.69% | 2410
7:00 | 22.10% | 32.11% | 45.79% | 2186
8:00 | 22.36% | 32.87% | 44.77% | 1941
9:00 | 21.15% | 32.65% | 46.20% | 1764
10:00 | 22.65% | 31.77% | 45.58% | 1731
11:00 | 20.92% | 30.98% | 48.09% | 1601
12:00 | 23.04% | 34.91% | 42.05% | 1415

Ratchet and Altair have their best and worst hours back to back, and during the same two hours, to boot, only reversed. Other than that, nothing really of note here.

X-Stats:

Altair – 50.00%
Ratchet – 42.42%
Shulk – 33.96%

Altair's prediction percentage was 50.76%

I guess that 25 seed really scared a lot of casuals away.
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#352 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 3:26:18 AM | message detail
Altair Never Loses In The First Round

ANLITFR
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#353 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/26/2013 3:47:19 AM | message detail
Altair the lowest seed to win in this contest.And no lower seed can do it.Nice.He can even go to round 3!Anyway I can't like this Lara.I mean still have my poster of Lara that I got in 2000 with old Lara who has huge boobs.This one hasn't big boobs!
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#354 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 3:50:56 AM | message detail
I have 158 expert points and 30 in bracket so i'm not THAT casual
But I had Shulk winning because I probably missed the 3rd seed gimmick of being "new characters" or something stupid
Unless 3rd seed was really based around number of nominations...then it wouldn't make much sense because Lee Everett and Yu and wtf
#355 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/26/2013 4:00:27 AM | message detail
Seeds are based on nominations BUT there have been some changes.That is why all 1 seed are N9 characters and all 3 seeds are new characters..
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#356 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 5:20:02 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Altair the lowest seed to win in this contest.And no lower seed can do it.Nice.He can even go to round 3!Anyway I can't like this Lara.I mean still have my poster of Lara that I got in 2000 with old Lara who has huge boobs.This one hasn't big boobs!


That's precisely the point - to make Lara look like someone more realistic than some over-the-top busty action girl.
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#357 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 6:27:47 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Seeds are based on nominations BUT there have been some changes.That is why all 1 seed are N9 characters and all 3 seeds are new characters..


Has it ever been confirmed?
We know for sure that 8 seed is not based around the number of nominations as all of them are joke/rallied
The first seed are all noble nine,but maybe that's also because they got the most nominations (well aside from Crono,they are the 8 strongest characters after all..)
Seconds seed does look like it's based around nominations count,as Zero,Luigi,Squall and Dante are all near-elite
Third seed is full of fillers that I really don't believe it was based around the number of nominations..
#358 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/26/2013 6:29:13 AM | message detail
Also I know that people don't care but Zack/Kefka/Ruy was the only match that I changed the winner 5 times.2 times I picked Ruy,1 Kefka and 2 times Zack and that is the one I ended with.
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#359 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/26/2013 6:42:53 AM | message detail
I remember going back and forth on that match as well.

For some reason, I feel as if either Kefka or Ryu has the pic advantage, more likely the former. At least, if I didn't know any of them I'd vote for Kefka - and I'm supporting the evil klown anyway.
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#360 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 6:44:35 AM | message detail
Has it ever been confirmed?
We know for sure that 8 seed is not based around the number of nominations as all of them are joke/rallied
The first seed are all noble nine,but maybe that's also because they got the most nominations (well aside from Crono,they are the 8 strongest characters after all..)
Seconds seed does look like it's based around nominations count,as Zero,Luigi,Squall and Dante are all near-elite
Third seed is full of fillers that I really don't believe it was based around the number of nominations..


It has never been confirmed.

It's possible Mega Man may not have had enough nominations (though after SSB he might be safe). Strength does not mean you will get a good seed, even ignoring the FF characters guys like Ryu and Mega Man X are always underseeded. I can believe that all the 3 seeds got there by merit or at least they are the top 9 new characters that got nominated the most.
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#361 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/26/2013 6:55:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
In regards to the seeds, I'm looking at the seeds below the three seed, and we have Garrus (4), Tharja (5), Squirtle (5), Booker (5), Lucina (6), and Handsome Jack (6) as newcomers that presumably got less nominations than our three seeds, depending on how much SB screwed with the seedings. I think it's safe to say that they at least deserve to be in the top third of the bracket at least.

What I am interested in is whether the Noble Nine are the top 9 in nominations. Because if that's not the case, than who would have been a 1 seed? Sora? Dante? Shepard? Phoenix?
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#362 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 6:58:35 AM | message detail
Match XXXVI: (7) Kefka vs. (12) Zack Fair vs. (21) Ryu Hayabusa

Previous Contest

Kefka – 2010
60.57% against Arthas Menethil
38.32% against Bowser

Zack Fair – 2010
58.61% against Yuna
38.34% against Mega Man

Ryu Hayabusa – 2010
61.79% against Crash Bandicoot
52.56% against Master Chief
27.85% against Mega Man

Analysis

It is a shame that one of these characters will be finishing in third place. They could have won in many other matches, but sometimes that is how the bracket placement falls. This match has a bit more importance than other matches this round as the winner of this match will be the favourite to win next round.

On paper Zack should be the favourite considering that he performed just as well on Mega Man as Kefka did on Bowser, even taking into account Zack got Mega Man at night and Kefka got Bowser at day Zack should still come out ahead and Ryu Hayabusa performed worse on Mega Man, even adjusting him due to the picture Zack would still come out on top, but a lot has happened since 2010.

The biggest issue is Final Fantasy VII characters have all looked terrible in this contest, but there has been some discussion as to how much this will affect Zack compared to the other characters. While Zack does have Crisis Core to pull strength from, the question is how much does he get his strength from the PSP game and how much does he get it from being mentioned in Final Fantasy VII. I would expect Zack to get a lot of his strength from Crisis Core which may protect his strength (or he could get weaker as that game gets older too), but his strength from Final Fantasy VII could disappear at a faster rate because you have to play the game to know Zack while the other main party members are more recognizable even without playing the game.

The other thing Zack needs to watch out for is LFF with Kefka. I know some people claim that there is little overlap between old and new Square, but like Pokemon and Nintendo I feel that is false. While SFF may not be as great there is overlap and all you have to do is look at four-ways or low vote totals in 1v1. For example Crono/Vincent 2005 had the worst vote totals for either character (Crono/Zidane was second for Crono), In 2007 Link more than doubled Vincent and Crono, In 2008 I still feel Cecil was SFF by Zack considering Kain’s and Rydia’s performance and in 2010 Squall/Terra had the lowest vote total in the entire second round. It might not be as much, but there is a notable difference.

If someone is going to take advantage over Zack’s weakness it would be Hayabusa. Kefka would need Zack to be weaker now while Hayabusa can take advantage of both Zack’s potential weakness and LFF. I took Hayabusa as the upset pick, but I concede that a lot needs to go his way for the upset to work and I believe that it will.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ryu Hayabusa > Zack Fair and Kefka

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ryu Hayabusa – 36.64%, Zack Fair – 34.42%, Kefka – 28.94%
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#363 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:04:07 AM | message detail
This is the hardest match to predict so far IMO
We don't know for sure if the majority will prefer Zack or Kefka (secondary character from more popular game or the main villian from a less popular one from the same series..?)
And if the SFF between them will be enough to let Ryu win...or get only second place
This match can go either way but Ryu in second place sounds like the safest pick
#364 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:05:59 AM | message detail
Where is the match pic for the upcoming match?
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Point Total: 33/34. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Laura Day: Zack
#365 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/26/2013 7:09:04 AM | message detail
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5178.jpg
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#366 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 7:21:23 AM | message detail
Zack doesn't need Kefka to be weaker. He just needs to exert New Square seniority over him. I know, I know, Kefka isn't New Square...but a big chunk of his strength IS, because he boosted from Dissidia. If Zack steals that away, he takes this way easy.
#367 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:31:58 AM | message detail
As a gaming and FF fan, it bothers me so much that Zack is historically stronger than Kefka in these contests. From a plot perspective, Kefka is IMO the best villain, if not character, in any FF game. And yet he'll likely lose to some dude with a big sword and a 10 minute cameo in FF7 (arguably a lesser character than such luminaries as Heidegger and certainly the Turks), and a useless spinoff when Squeenix decided they needed to milk the FF7 cow even more. I have Kefka winning out of spite more than anything else.

FF7 fanboyism is just crazy.
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#368 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 7:38:51 AM | message detail
You can call Zack 'some dude' and say his spinoff is useless, but I can tell you you're absolutely nuts. I'm not a big fan of FF7 at all - I always felt like it was good, had some great moments, but it isn't a game I look back at with particular fondness compared to FF8 and 9 - but Crisis Core's ending sequence is simply perfect. It was an extremely difficult proposition to make the story of 'the original Cloud' be as good as it should've been, and yet the Army Sequence made the entire journey 100% worth it. Zack's last stand, his desperate battle, his inexhaustible will to live in the face of wounds that would kill anybody else just because he knows Aerith is waiting for him...all of this makes for an incredibly powerful moment. Combine it with The Price of Freedom, and it's an event that's capable of putting any heart in mourning. It's not a surprise that Zack is so beloved after that. That sequence has the same timeless quality as MGS3's ending, and much like The Boss has not decayed since her game's time even in the face of no new releases, I wouldn't be surprised if a large portion of Zack's strength remains resilient in the face of time's passage.
#369 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/26/2013 7:40:35 AM | message detail
Funny how in FF7 he gets gunned down easily by 2 nameless grunts
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#370 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:42:23 AM | message detail
Oh.. I've got something in my throat.. I need to be alone.. while I sufffff-er.
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#371 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 7:43:14 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Funny how in FF7 he gets gunned down easily by 2 nameless grunts


He gets gunned down in the exact same way (well, it's three instead of two) in Crisis Core. That's not the point. The grunts are just symbolic representations of Shinra, and the pitiful state Zack's rebellion leaves it in. It's everything that comes before that makes that scene so powerful.
#372 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/26/2013 7:46:55 AM | message detail
#373 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:48:21 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
Funny how in FF7 he gets gunned down easily by 2 nameless grunts


He gets gunned down in the exact same way (well, it's three instead of two) in Crisis Core. That's not the point. The grunts are just symbolic representations of Shinra, and the pitiful state Zack's rebellion leaves it in. It's everything that comes before that makes that scene so powerful.


I get the point you're trying to prove. But to me Crisis Core (and DoC for that matter) is just a big piece of official fan fiction making a lot more out of a character who really wasn't intended to be anything that relevant, just to satiate the appetite of the FF7 fanbase and line Square's pockets. For that reason the plot just rings so hollow to me and it's hard to feel an emotional connection to it.

We can agree to disagree :)
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#374 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/26/2013 7:48:28 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
You can call Zack 'some dude' and say his spinoff is useless, but I can tell you you're absolutely nuts. I'm not a big fan of FF7 at all - I always felt like it was good, had some great moments, but it isn't a game I look back at with particular fondness compared to FF8 and 9 - but Crisis Core's ending sequence is simply perfect. It was an extremely difficult proposition to make the story of 'the original Cloud' be as good as it should've been, and yet the Army Sequence made the entire journey 100% worth it. Zack's last stand, his desperate battle, his inexhaustible will to live in the face of wounds that would kill anybody else just because he knows Aerith is waiting for him...all of this makes for an incredibly powerful moment. Combine it with The Price of Freedom, and it's an event that's capable of putting any heart in mourning. It's not a surprise that Zack is so beloved after that. That sequence has the same timeless quality as MGS3's ending, and much like The Boss has not decayed since her game's time even in the face of no new releases, I wouldn't be surprised if a large portion of Zack's strength remains resilient in the face of time's passage.


I completely agree with this post. Ever since you finally leave Nibleheim, there's this awful feeling of dread. At that point you know what's coming, and you just wish there could be something you could do to change it. And then the Turks go looking for him, and Tseng mentions the 88 letters... and I just lost it. Beautiful ending. Zack is gonna survive FF7's decline, I'm sure of it.
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#375 | abdou | Posted 7/26/2013 8:05:21 AM | message detail
I like Zack a lot more than Cloud or any other FF7 character

hopefully he wins this match, it would suck to see him lose in the 1st round
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#376 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2013 8:16:59 AM | message detail
Zack probably holds up fine. He beat Yuna as expected and Kefka has even less overlap with him; we're dealing with two FF-characters with multiple and distinct pockets of the FF-fanbase (FF7 + CC:FF7 against FF3/6 + Dissidia). I don't trust Hayabusa's consistency here, either.
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#377 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 7/26/2013 8:17:36 AM | message detail
Zack is by far the best character in the FF7 universe. His story was so integral to FF7's plot but you only got it in snippets in the original game, so I was very happy to play Crisis Core.

Zack was already one my favorites from FF7 alone but after Crisis Core he's in my top three for the entire series.
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#378 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:25:26 AM | message detail
Honestly, with how the rest of FF7 has done, Zack is a hard sell. He's going to be in his bad time, he's going to be hurt somewhat by Kefka (if not outright lose to him because Kefka never makes sense), and nobody from FF7 has looked decent against anything of remote strength. Vincent used to be fairly immune to anti-voting, and now he can't even break 60% on KOS-MOS. People know Zack is from FF7, and that alone is gonna do a lot of damage.
#379 | swordz9 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:29:53 AM | message detail
I'd vote for Zack if Kefka wasn't in the match. It's a shame you see so little of Zack in FF7 since he'd be pretty good if he got the screen time of a PC. He'd at least crack the top 5 for the game.
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#380 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/26/2013 8:31:51 AM | message detail
Less than 30 minutes until the return of ZackFAQs. Whose body is ready?
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#381 | MenuWars | Posted 7/26/2013 8:32:54 AM | message detail
NinjaFAQs.
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#382 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:34:08 AM | message detail
LettuceFAQs
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Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#383 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:34:29 AM | message detail
TecmoFAQs
#384 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/26/2013 8:34:53 AM | message detail
The upcoming match is one of the only ones where I legitimately like all three characters. (I think there are only four matches like that)
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#385 | spooky96 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:35:10 AM | message detail
How come people say Zack is the best FF7 character?

You know a character named Sephiroth in that game?
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#386 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:35:52 AM | message detail
Stephen Ross is a lame jobber.
#387 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 7/26/2013 8:44:58 AM | message detail
lol lance bass
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#388 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:45:23 AM | message detail
I work with a Stephen Ross. He has neither a long sword nor shiny silver hair, and to my knowledge has not impaled our company's president.
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#389 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:45:39 AM | message detail
Lance vs. Bass who ya got
#390 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/26/2013 8:46:40 AM | message detail
come on yuri stay above 10%
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#391 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:49:37 AM | message detail
Lara is at 85% on Yuri, Samus only managed 87%. Lara winning this division CONFIRMED.
#392 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:50:54 AM | message detail
Lara/Yuri/Slime managed more votes than GlaDOS/Cole/Ragna. Huh.
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#393 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/26/2013 8:52:41 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
come on yuri stay above 10%


rip yuri
#394 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 8:53:09 AM | message detail
Lara/Yuri/Slime managed more votes than GlaDOS/Cole/Ragna. Huh.

Slime > Cole/Ragna IMO.
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Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#395 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/26/2013 8:53:45 AM | message detail
#396 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/26/2013 8:56:12 AM | message detail
yuri rally come on lets go
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#397 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:00:15 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Kefka
50%
6 Votes

Zack Fair
25%
3 Votes

Ryu Hayabusa
25%
3 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 12
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POKEFEAR
#398 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Kefka
83.33%
5 Votes
Your Pick

Zack Fair
16.67%
1 Votes

Ryu Hayabusa
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 6

GO KEFKA!!!
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#399 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:00:29 AM | message detail
8th vore for Zack.Also Yuri with less than 10%...
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#400 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2013 9:00:32 AM | message detail
Love the Kefka board vote


Kefka
52.38%
11 Votes

Zack Fair
28.57%
6 Votes

Ryu Hayabusa
19.05%
4 Votes
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Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.