Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1078

#301 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:04 PM | message detail
Slime with dat board vote
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#302 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:32 PM | message detail
This might get the lowest votals so far.
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POKEFEAR
#303 | tgs2 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:51 PM | message detail
Time for Slime to drop off a cliff like Epona did after the freeze.
#304 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/25/2013 9:04:39 PM | message detail
#305 | ZFS | Posted 7/25/2013 9:05:32 PM | message detail
Shadow Hearts is super niche. Not many people have played it.
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#306 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:05:34 PM | message detail
but seriously how bad does Yuri have to be if hes struggling to get 15% on Lara Croft

Under 13% against Samus in 2005, hasn't had a game since.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#307 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:06:50 PM | message detail
Under 10% for Yuri, knew I went too high for him.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#308 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/25/2013 9:07:15 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
This might get the lowest votals so far.


Tough to say at this point. Let's wait until the end of the first hour before making any judgements.
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#309 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/25/2013 9:07:52 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
but seriously how bad does Yuri have to be if hes struggling to get 15% on Lara Croft

Under 13% against Samus in 2005, hasn't had a game since.


Wasn't Chaos Wars after that?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAtC1SzWSXg
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#310 | vcharon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:09:14 PM | message detail
Poor Yuri =/
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Still smilin'
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#311 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/25/2013 9:11:42 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
33------5------------80.00
32------49----------85.71
31------167--------85.63
30------284--------73.59
29------415--------59.04
28------588--------50.85
27------964--------46.89
26------1363------45.49
25------1621------48.18
24------1801------50.31
23------1722------47.79
22------1519------52.67
21------1260------51.67
20------973--------53.75
19------662--------50.15
18------538--------49.26
17------387--------49.61
16------261--------53.26
15------223--------48.88
14------130--------43.08
13------93----------47.31
12------62----------35.48
11------54----------50.00
10------30----------46.67
9--------18----------61.11
8--------14----------42.86
7--------4------------75.00
6--------8------------62.50
5--------2------------100.00
4--------4------------50.00
3--------4------------25.00
2--------17----------88.24
1--------6------------0.00
0--------6------------0.00

And then there were 4. For three straight matches we've lost exactly 1 perfect per match. Once again a pretty easy match and once again the overall prediction percentage tanks after you get further than around 3 points away from perfect. The middle tiers had a lot more trouble with the match, although they still favour Altair. we have less than 49 brackets that are 1 off perfect or better so those that are two off perfect and lucky enough to have a username early in the alphabet are starting to show up. For those with a name later in the alphabet, I hear you can get a username change if you buy a GameFAQs shirt...

6 people fell off the Top 49. adam_jannetta, BakusaiTenketsu, BlackMetalex, Bran_Stark, Oxus_the_Smoove and raginbull911 did not have Altair winning.

1 person got it wrong but survived. VincentLauw also did not have Altair winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#312 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/25/2013 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Jesus Yuri
What the hell
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#313 | tgs2 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:13:41 PM | message detail
Eh. Lara is probably significantly stronger here than in 2004, but assuming it's constant, Yuri is already winning by <1% on Tanner and in danger of being the second guy this contest to drop below him.
#314 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/25/2013 9:14:02 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Goomba would be winning this match right now!


We really need to get Goomba into the next Character Battle after this one. Slime's performance is definitely a good sign for Goomba.
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#315 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/25/2013 9:14:03 PM | message detail
The two Yuri's are some of the best characters in this contest and both are pitifully weak.

Can we stop nominating them only to see them get annihilated?
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#316 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/25/2013 9:14:50 PM | message detail
I have Yuri getting 2nd in my expert

*sigh*
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#317 | Xuxon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:15:14 PM | message detail
From: tgs2 | Posted: 7/26/2013 12:13:41 AM | #313
Eh. Lara is probably significantly stronger here than in 2004, but assuming it's constant, Yuri is already winning by <1% on Tanner and in danger of being the second guy this contest to drop below him.

probably? that's pretty obvious. at least use 2006 or 2007.
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#318 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/25/2013 9:15:58 PM | message detail
Yesss onto the expert leaderboard and now beating Allen!
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#319 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 9:16:08 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
The two Yuri's are some of the best characters in this contest and both are pitifully weak.

Can we stop nominating them only to see them get annihilated?


I've been trying to get people to stop nominating these garbage characters for years. Good luck
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#320 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:17:08 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
3. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413
4. Chrom – 9589 vs. Heavy – 7924 – Round 1 – 1665
5. Proto Man – 10854 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 1945
6. Fei Fong Wong – 6288 vs. Dan Hibiki – 4217 – Round 1 – 2071
7. Ike – 11023 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 2114
8. N – 8892 vs. Wander – 6714 – Round 1 – 2178
9. Meta Knight – 7468 vs. Archer – 4767 – Round 1 – 2701
10. Ratchet – 9692 vs. Shulk – 6767 – Round 1 – 2925

Top 5 Least Popular Day Polls
1. Ness vs. Locke Cole vs. CATS – Round 1 – 27607
2. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 29616
3. Vincent Valentine vs. KOS-MOS vs. Dunban – Round 1 – 30485
4. Luigi vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Jade – Round 1 – 30674
5. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 30786

Top 5 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Ike – Round 1 – 11023
2. Ness – Round 1 – 12979
3. Altair – Round 1 – 13157
4. The Boss – Round 1 – 14690
5. Morrigan Aensland – Round 1 – 14988

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
3. KOS-MOS – Round 1 – 10944
4. Proto Man – Round 1 – 10854
5. Professor Layton – Round 1 – 10587
6. Captain Olimar – Round 1 – 9829
7. Ratchet – Round 1 – 9692
8. Chrom – Round 1 – 9589
9. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 8909
10. N – Round 1 – 8892

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
2. Crash Bandicoot vs. Wheatley vs. Tommy Vercetti – Round 1 – 40.90%
3. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 42.42%
4. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 42.49%
5. Morrigan Aensland vs. Miles Edgeworth vs. Agent 47 – Round 1 – 45.15%
6. Altair vs. Ratchet vs. Shulk – Round 1 – 50.76%
7. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 51.28%
8. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 51.46%
9. The Boss vs. Chrom vs. Heavy – Round 1 – 52.99%
10. Epona vs. Mordin Solus vs. Niko Bellic – Round 1 – 53.27%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#321 | vcharon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:17:57 PM | message detail
Literally didn't move, and I went ahead and used my vote on him =(
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#322 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:18:23 PM | message detail
We need to get Slime into the next contest... he deserves another shot.


Goomba and Moogle or just Mog from VI should get a chance too.
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#323 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/25/2013 9:18:28 PM | message detail
Yuri's looking impressive here
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#324 | LOLContests | Posted 7/25/2013 9:18:31 PM | message detail
Yuri Lowell didn't look that bad. There's plenty of worse characters in the bracket.
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#325 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/25/2013 9:20:56 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Yuri Lowell didn't look that bad. There's plenty of worse characters in the bracket.


He did look better this year but that's not saying much.

It's still incredibly unlikely he'll ever be able to win a match.

We already have stronger niche RPG characters like Laharl taking spots every year.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#326 | vcharon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:22:06 PM | message detail
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.
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Still smilin'
:>
#327 | LOLContests | Posted 7/25/2013 9:23:03 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
LOLContests posted...
Yuri Lowell didn't look that bad. There's plenty of worse characters in the bracket.


He did look better this year but that's not saying much.

It's still incredibly unlikely he'll ever be able to win a match.

We already have stronger niche RPG characters like Laharl taking spots every year.


If this was a 128 character bracket I'd agree, but with 200 some characters there's a spot for Yuri.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.
#328 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/25/2013 9:23:29 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
The two Yuri's are some of the best characters in this contest and both are pitifully weak.

Can we stop nominating them only to see them get annihilated?


At this point, everytime I see these pitful performances, I just think: "Characters like Ken, Akuma, & Liquid missed the bracket for this..."
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Now Awaiting:
Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls
#329 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:29:51 PM | message detail
At this point, everytime I see these pitful performances, I just think: "Characters like Ken, Akuma, & Liquid missed the bracket for this..."

At 243 characters I blame their fans, based on the amount of nominations it means they couldn't get 10-15 people to support a character.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#330 | FantomXD | Posted 7/25/2013 9:30:56 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.

Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.

On another note hell yeah Lara! kick their asses honey!
#331 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/25/2013 9:32:00 PM | message detail
Slime deserves to win
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#332 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 9:37:46 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
At this point, everytime I see these pitful performances, I just think: "Characters like Ken, Akuma, & Liquid missed the bracket for this..."

At 243 characters I blame their fans, based on the amount of nominations it means they couldn't get 10-15 people to support a character.


I was urging people to nominate Liquid, and everyone kept saying "nah bro no need he'll get in theres over 200 characters"

and look where we are today, Liquid-less :/

.
#333 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/25/2013 9:38:15 PM | message detail
We don't have JECHT either!!
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#334 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:40:44 PM | message detail
Both were low seeds and required the vote-ins to make it, now Soap and Captain Price went from a 3 and 4 seed to failing to reach the bracket, now that's impressive (even if he would likely be weaker now)
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 29/34 Today's Picks: Lara Croft and Ryu H.
#335 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/25/2013 9:44:21 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Joke/Rallied characters don't follow strengths, let's say MMX gets 15k and Draven 2k votes in a normal match, Draven would need 13k to win which based on his peak performance is something he is capable of doing.


Let's assume something like 10% for Draven, 40% for Ryu, and 50% for MMX in this match without any rallied votes. Assuming 30000 votes normally, the results would look like this:

Draven 10% 3000
Ryu 40% 12000
Mega Man X 50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 30000

Draven got about 10000 rallied votes in his round 1 match. Let's add 10000 rallied votes to Draven's current vote total and now the results look like this:

Draven 32.50% 13000
Ryu 30.00% 12000
Mega Man X 37.50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 40000

You can see that Draven was able to overtake Ryu with 10000 rallied votes, but he still falls about 3000 votes short of MMX. If the LoL community can produce an even bigger rally in Draven's next match, he could overtake MMX as well.
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#336 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/25/2013 9:47:58 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Joke/Rallied characters don't follow strengths, let's say MMX gets 15k and Draven 2k votes in a normal match, Draven would need 13k to win which based on his peak performance is something he is capable of doing.


Let's assume something like 10% for Draven, 40% for Ryu, and 50% for MMX in this match without any rallied votes. Assuming 30000 votes normally, the results would look like this:

Draven 10% 3000
Ryu 40% 12000
Mega Man X 50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 30000

Draven got about 10000 rallied votes in his round 1 match. Let's add 10000 rallied votes to Draven's current vote total and now the results look like this:

Draven 32.50% 13000
Ryu 30.00% 12000
Mega Man X 37.50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 40000

You can see that Draven was able to overtake Ryu with 10000 rallied votes, but he still falls about 3000 votes short of MMX. If the LoL community can produce an even bigger rally in Draven's next match, he could overtake MMX as well.

Rallied votes don't go 100% to the rallied character. With MMX and Ryu in the poll I'd be surprised if more than, say, 60% of them actually went to Draven.
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#337 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/25/2013 9:49:13 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
We need to get Slime into the next contest... he deserves another shot.


Goomba and Moogle or just Mog from VI should get a chance too.

I've unsuccessfully rallied for him before!
Hopefully people will be more willing to nominate him now that he's been in a contest and (assuming this holds) has had a decent showing.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#338 | SubDeity | Posted 7/25/2013 10:18:57 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
The two Yuri's are some of the best characters in this contest and both are pitifully weak.

Can we stop nominating them only to see them get annihilated?


I've been trying to get people to stop nominating these garbage characters for years. Good luck


In that case, I'm going to nominate only weak characters just to spite you.
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#339 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 10:34:54 PM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
The two Yuri's are some of the best characters in this contest and both are pitifully weak.

Can we stop nominating them only to see them get annihilated?


I've been trying to get people to stop nominating these garbage characters for years. Good luck


In that case, I'm going to nominate only weak characters just to spite you.


Whatever helps you sleep at night
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#340 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 10:56:32 PM | message detail
FantomXD posted...
vcharon posted...
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.

Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.

On another note hell yeah Lara! kick their asses honey!


CLOUD!!!
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#341 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 10:59:12 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
FantomXD posted...
vcharon posted...
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.

Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.

On another note hell yeah Lara! kick their asses honey!


CLOUD!!!


completely off topic, but there should totally be a user named CloudSephirothCrono
#342 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/25/2013 11:00:19 PM | message detail
After looking at their recent performances, that user would be ashamed to have that name though.
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#343 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 11:01:05 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
charmander6000 posted...
At this point, everytime I see these pitful performances, I just think: "Characters like Ken, Akuma, & Liquid missed the bracket for this..."

At 243 characters I blame their fans, based on the amount of nominations it means they couldn't get 10-15 people to support a character.


I was urging people to nominate Liquid, and everyone kept saying "nah bro no need he'll get in theres over 200 characters"

and look where we are today, Liquid-less :/

.


Hey I nominated Liquid!
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#344 | anondum | Posted 7/25/2013 11:12:18 PM | message detail
can't believe we still have 3 weeks of fodder left
#345 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 11:18:10 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
FantomXD posted...
vcharon posted...
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.

Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.

On another note hell yeah Lara! kick their asses honey!


CLOUD!!!


completely off topic, but there should totally be a user named CloudSephirothCrono


SnakeMegaManSonic to round it off
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#346 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 11:19:57 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
FantomXD posted...
vcharon posted...
And down he goes. I think Yuri is just getting Caim'd here unfortunately.

Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.

On another note hell yeah Lara! kick their asses honey!


CLOUD!!!


completely off topic, but there should totally be a user named CloudSephirothCrono


SnakeMegaManSonic to round it off


it even fits, those three have all been in smash!
#347 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/26/2013 12:25:37 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Joke/Rallied characters don't follow strengths, let's say MMX gets 15k and Draven 2k votes in a normal match, Draven would need 13k to win which based on his peak performance is something he is capable of doing.


Let's assume something like 10% for Draven, 40% for Ryu, and 50% for MMX in this match without any rallied votes. Assuming 30000 votes normally, the results would look like this:

Draven 10% 3000
Ryu 40% 12000
Mega Man X 50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 30000

Draven got about 10000 rallied votes in his round 1 match. Let's add 10000 rallied votes to Draven's current vote total and now the results look like this:

Draven 32.50% 13000
Ryu 30.00% 12000
Mega Man X 37.50% 15000
TOTAL VOTES 40000

You can see that Draven was able to overtake Ryu with 10000 rallied votes, but he still falls about 3000 votes short of MMX. If the LoL community can produce an even bigger rally in Draven's next match, he could overtake MMX as well.


But now you are assuming that LoL fans are blind zombies that will vote for Draven against anything
There is one thing voting Draven over Jak and Chie and totally different thing voting him over two iconic characters
I voted Draven first round because who the **** are Jak and Chie
But voting him over X? lol
I would sooner vote Ryu and I don't care about Street Fighter
#348 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 3:04:16 AM | message detail


But now you are assuming that LoL fans are blind zombies that will vote for Draven against anything
There is one thing voting Draven over Jak and Chie and totally different thing voting him over two iconic characters
I voted Draven first round because who the **** are Jak and Chie
But voting him over X? lol
I would sooner vote Ryu and I don't care about Street Fighter


It's not so much that LoL fans are blind zombies as Draven is intended to act as a proxy for League of Legends. By voting for Draven, its fans are saying 'LoL is one of my favorite games. So much so, I'd say it's a better experience than the Megaman X and Street Fighter series'. That's the theory behind it, at least. We'll have to see if it pans out or not.
#349 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/26/2013 3:07:06 AM | message detail
FantomXD posted...
Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.


Yuri isn't emo!

He's also one of the best darn characters in this thing, but I'd never nominate him because watching him struggle to get 10% is too depressing.
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#350 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/26/2013 3:10:02 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
FantomXD posted...
Poor emo characters get no love on gamefaqs.


Yuri isn't emo!

He's also one of the best darn characters in this thing, but I'd never nominate him because watching him struggle to get 10% is too depressing.


If there were justice in this world, Yuri would be up there with Squall and Vincent (well, old Vincent) for character strength. Alas...