Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1078

#201 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/25/2013 12:22:44 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Remember, Draven only had 20% in a match with Jak and Chie. He's going to be starting from an even bigger deficit next time, and he has to deal with the fact that a lot of these LoL guys are going to be fans of MMX and Ryu as well.


Yeah, unlike L-Block the problem here is that he has a really tough second-round match, and second place in the match won't be enough to progress. He has to straight-up outvote Ryu and MMX and that ain't easy. But if it's a case of just the odd link in one or two of the right places? F***ing hype.
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#202 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:23:46 PM | message detail
Colegreen_c12 posted...
People are entirely underestimating LoL's fanbase if they think he can't win the whole thing. If riot puts a link on their client for an hour, he will get more votes than most matches have.


If that happens, i don't know if Link would even put up 20% against Draven.
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#203 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 12:24:15 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Ah crap, yesterday's match was so boring and uneventful I just naturally assumed that one of the 500 Fails of or Xenofodder characters


I dunno, I thought Epona kicking ass was eventful enough.


Only if you weren't expecting it
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#204 | xp1337 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:24:44 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Remember, Draven only had 20% in a match with Jak and Chie. He's going to be starting from an even bigger deficit next time, and he has to deal with the fact that a lot of these LoL guys are going to be fans of MMX and Ryu as well.

This actually scares me more, to be honest. Because it suggests that practically everything Draven did was pure rally strength. It doesn't make much sense because obviously a better position for Draven to not be turbofodder and still have the rally strength but I have a feeling we'd all be kind of laughing this off if Base Draven had been only trailing Jak by a little bit and got pushed over.

Colegreen_c12 posted...
People are entirely underestimating LoL's fanbase if they think he can't win the whole thing. If riot puts a link on their client for an hour, he will get more votes than most matches have.

I never liked this take on the argument. Yeah, sure, if Riot did that it's almost certainly game over, Link included. But that's the kind of thing that I think would be true for a number of characters and never materialized.

Saying, "If only 1% of the fanbase showed up, the contest would be over" is one thing. Getting them is another. If 1% of the WoW base showed up those contests would be over. This is the kind of thing I need to see to believe, because it hasn't been done yet. This format and the low votals is very helpful though.
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#205 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:25:30 PM | message detail
Yeah, unlike L-Block the problem here is that he has a really tough second-round match, and second place in the match won't be enough to progress. He has to straight-up outvote Ryu and MMX and that ain't easy. But if it's a case of just the odd link in one or two of the right places? F***ing hype.

It hurts MMX/Ryu that they split the vote with each other if it was MMX/scrub things would be harder for Draven.
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#206 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 12:26:02 PM | message detail
Draven's rally potential is amazing... If a rally starting 1/3 of the way through the match can get him 10,000 votes (?) imagine what a rally that's been circulated and prepared for a few days could do. We really need to keep an eye out in the days leading up to Draven's match.
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#207 | xp1337 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:27:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, honestly MMX/Ryu struck me as pretty fortunate for Draven. Unless MMX just blows out Ryu a close match is to Draven's benefit.

Are there much better R2 matches to end up in? Sure, but there are plenty of worse ones.
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#208 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 12:27:25 PM | message detail
This Draven talk is hilarious. Starcraft had one of the most successful rallies ever in a contest, and it still managed to barely beat out its opponents before bowing out to Melee. And Starcraft has a much higher base strength than Draven ever will.
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#209 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:27:50 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
It hurts MMX/Ryu that they split the vote with each other if it was MMX/scrub things would be harder for Draven.


Honestly, I think Draven having to face two very well known and well liked characters hurts his chances because that's two characters the potential ralliers may want to vote for instead. EVO became a bigger deal on Twitch than LoL, too.
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#210 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:28:53 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Remember, Draven only had 20% in a match with Jak and Chie. He's going to be starting from an even bigger deficit next time, and he has to deal with the fact that a lot of these LoL guys are going to be fans of MMX and Ryu as well.

This actually scares me more, to be honest. Because it suggests that practically everything Draven did was pure rally strength. It doesn't make much sense because obviously a better position for Draven to not be turbofodder and still have the rally strength but I have a feeling we'd all be kind of laughing this off if Base Draven had been only trailing Jak by a little bit and got pushed over.

Colegreen_c12 posted...
People are entirely underestimating LoL's fanbase if they think he can't win the whole thing. If riot puts a link on their client for an hour, he will get more votes than most matches have.

I never liked this take on the argument. Yeah, sure, if Riot did that it's almost certainly game over, Link included. But that's the kind of thing that I think would be true for a number of characters and never materialized.

Saying, "If only 1% of the fanbase showed up, the contest would be over" is one thing. Getting them is another. If 1% of the WoW base showed up those contests would be over. This is the kind of thing I need to see to believe, because it hasn't been done yet. This format and the low votals is very helpful though.


Problem is,you can expect it only from Blizzard(Battlenet and WoW) and Valve (Steam)
Since they are both giant companies that doesn't care about something like Gamefaqs Character Battle Popularity Contest it's out of the question
But Riot is a small company that I can imagine them doing it
I don't believe it will happen,but it's possible
#211 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 12:29:05 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Yeah, unlike L-Block the problem here is that he has a really tough second-round match, and second place in the match won't be enough to progress. He has to straight-up outvote Ryu and MMX and that ain't easy. But if it's a case of just the odd link in one or two of the right places? F***ing hype.

It hurts MMX/Ryu that they split the vote with each other if it was MMX/scrub things would be harder for Draven.


But it also means that Draven's base strength will be much lower because he's up against 2 near-elites, and that a lot less of the rallied traffic will end up voting for him.
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#212 | X195 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:30:50 PM | message detail
Isn't it possible that Altair is SFFing Ratchet a bit? AC was always promoted more as a PS brand than everything else. PS even gets console exclusive stuff for each game.
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#213 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:31:24 PM | message detail
what if Mega Man fans crash the LoL forums beforehand :O
#214 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 12:31:46 PM | message detail
Starcraft probably did have a higher strength, but it doesn't matter. Votals are so awfully low that LoL rallies would be more than enough to win the contest.
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#215 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:32:33 PM | message detail
This is like arguing Master Chief was going to beat Hayabusa because of "Xbox SFF."

I don't think people understand the concept of overlap. Everyone overlaps with everyone. It's just a matter of finding a scenario where the fans of one greatly prefer him over the other, and that doesn't happen as often as people seem to think, because it's getting thrown around in virtually every match now.
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#216 | xp1337 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:37:32 PM | message detail | (edited)
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Yeah, unlike L-Block the problem here is that he has a really tough second-round match, and second place in the match won't be enough to progress. He has to straight-up outvote Ryu and MMX and that ain't easy. But if it's a case of just the odd link in one or two of the right places? F***ing hype.

It hurts MMX/Ryu that they split the vote with each other if it was MMX/scrub things would be harder for Draven.


But it also means that Draven's base strength will be much lower because he's up against 2 near-elites, and that a lot less of the rallied traffic will end up voting for him.

That's the drawback, but personally I think that's a preferable situation to replacing Ryu with a scrub that allows MMX to end up somewhere around 60%+ (~20k votes) pre-rally. It comes down to how many votes you think Ryu will take from the rally to determine which situation is better.
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#217 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:37:47 PM | message detail
I think that people are just paranoid because of the L-Block incident
#218 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/25/2013 12:38:48 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
This Draven talk is hilarious. Starcraft had one of the most successful rallies ever in a contest, and it still managed to barely beat out its opponents before bowing out to Melee. And Starcraft has a much higher base strength than Draven ever will.


Things are different now. People connect to each other in new ways. There are just more avenues now for an effective rally, I think.
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#219 | swirIdude | Posted 7/25/2013 12:40:43 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
It's the same reason why people thought that the name Darth Revan and a lightsaber in his match pic would be enough to beat Terra, and it didn't happen.

We also didn't expect Terra to be that strong, Revan does have some strength.


I picked Terra and never had a second thought about it. You guys were just drooling over shiny lightsabers.
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#220 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/25/2013 12:44:42 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
charmander6000 posted...
It's the same reason why people thought that the name Darth Revan and a lightsaber in his match pic would be enough to beat Terra, and it didn't happen.

We also didn't expect Terra to be that strong, Revan does have some strength.


I picked Terra and never had a second thought about it. You guys were just drooling over shiny lightsabers.


That's a non sequitur, not an argument. You've made plenty of picks that you didn't have a second thought about that bombed.
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#221 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:47:49 PM | message detail
The League of Draven will beat Link
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#222 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/25/2013 12:49:04 PM | message detail
Between the LoL subreddit (the 24th most active subreddit and 2nd most popular gaming-related subreddit behind the default /r/gaming [3rd]), and a potential LoL official forum thread that gets visibility, ESPECIALLY if a Riot employee happens to make a post in it which drives traffic because of their tracker, Draven has ridiculous rally potential. People really shouldn't underestimate the LoL fanbase.

Draaaaaaaaaaaven..
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#223 | KommunistKoala | Posted 7/25/2013 12:56:27 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
charmander6000 posted...
It hurts MMX/Ryu that they split the vote with each other if it was MMX/scrub things would be harder for Draven.


Honestly, I think Draven having to face two very well known and well liked characters hurts his chances because that's two characters the potential ralliers may want to vote for instead. EVO became a bigger deal on Twitch than LoL, too.


I think this is a tad misleading considering EVO is the biggest fighting game tournament in the world, and it was barely beating random LoL pros that were streaming regular games. If League was running their biggest tournament I don't think EVO would be leading in viewers or be very close.

Not that any of this matters in the long run
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#224 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/25/2013 1:09:02 PM | message detail
I think people are still living under a rock if they truly underestimate the magnitude of their rallying potential. Times have changed, there are a lot more outlets, forums, stream channels, live chat, etc these days for them to work on. Even a random piece of LoL footage on youtube would garner 1-200k views within a day.
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#225 | tgs2 | Posted 7/25/2013 1:14:39 PM | message detail
Twitch/Reddit isn't what is going to be giving Teemo and Draven any super rally strength, it's Riot. Twitch is more likely to vote Ryu against Draven because FGC stream monsters are rooted in everything there.
#226 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/25/2013 1:21:15 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
Twitch/Reddit isn't what is going to be giving Teemo and Draven any super rally strength, it's Riot. Twitch is more likely to vote Ryu against Draven because FGC stream monsters are rooted in everything there.


Weekly FGC tournaments (The Runback, Big Two being the two most popular) get 15k viewers on a good day. Big tournaments like CEO and Final Round usually get 30-50k viewers, and they happen every few months. LoL Streamers like TheOddOne, Dyrus, Imaqtpie, and Scarra routinely get 30k-50k viewers just to watch them play.

Riot's weekly LCS started 20 minutes ago, a game hasn't even started yet, and there are 92k viewers. They routinely get 130k+ viewers on Twitch and an extra 30k on Youtube, and that's not even taking into account Korean streaming platforms.

Know that raise your dongers stuff that pervades every Twitch channel right now? Where do you think it started? HINT: It wasn't an FGC stream.

EVO was super hype, but Riot's LCS pull that viewer count FOUR TIMES A WEEK.

You're nuts if you think the Twitch/Reddit vote would go to Ryu.
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#227 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 1:22:38 PM | message detail
Am I the only one to notice that Draven could potentially benefit from STF in Round 2? It's a Western character against two anime dudes.
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#228 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 1:26:12 PM | message detail
The issue isn't whether they are capable it's whether they will. Husky and Day9 could rally Starcraft to great strengths as well, but they don't.
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#229 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/25/2013 1:31:41 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Remember, Draven only had 20% in a match with Jak and Chie. He's going to be starting from an even bigger deficit next time, and he has to deal with the fact that a lot of these LoL guys are going to be fans of MMX and Ryu as well.

This actually scares me more, to be honest. Because it suggests that practically everything Draven did was pure rally strength. It doesn't make much sense because obviously a better position for Draven to not be turbofodder and still have the rally strength but I have a feeling we'd all be kind of laughing this off if Base Draven had been only trailing Jak by a little bit and got pushed over.

Colegreen_c12 posted...
People are entirely underestimating LoL's fanbase if they think he can't win the whole thing. If riot puts a link on their client for an hour, he will get more votes than most matches have.

I never liked this take on the argument. Yeah, sure, if Riot did that it's almost certainly game over, Link included. But that's the kind of thing that I think would be true for a number of characters and never materialized.

Saying, "If only 1% of the fanbase showed up, the contest would be over" is one thing. Getting them is another. If 1% of the WoW base showed up those contests would be over. This is the kind of thing I need to see to believe, because it hasn't been done yet. This format and the low votals is very helpful though.


That's right. As I was so fond of pointing out a few days ago even though it was completely irrelevant, Draven was getting killed early on. Literally lost an update by over 100 votes to Chie Satonaka. Took all of about an hour and 20 minutes for Draven to be in third place by over 1000 votes. It took almost twice as long for Chie to fall 1000 votes behind Jak than it took her to build up a 1000-vote lead over Draven!

Which brings us to the other scary part about this--because of how long it took for Draven to get going, Chie still ended up with a very respectable 39.42% on him. Can you imagine something from Persona actually having a good X-stat value?

But yeah, the one saving grace is that Draven faces a tough round 2 battle. That's why I'm worried about Epona--she's actually got a rather favorable Round 2 battle in that Fire Emblem always collapses against other Nintendo and GLaDOS looked really weak. Seriously, Ragna the Bloodedge got almost 23% on her. Anyone remember the past performances of these guys and their games?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3695
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4049
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4069
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4481

Um...yeah. Note that three out of those four polls are vote-ins, too. This is the first time anything from either series has even made a contest in which the field was decided solely on nominations.
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#230 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 1:39:12 PM | message detail
Changing topic, I just discovered decisive proof that Niko dropped in strength. Put it this way: Would you expect Epona to be on the same level as Zelda and Ganondorf, or Mordin to be equal to John Price? That's the truth if you assume a constant Niko.

We won't know the truth for sure until next round, but common sense tells enough.
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#231 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/25/2013 1:39:25 PM | message detail
When was this topic taken over by obnoxious LoL fans again?
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#232 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/25/2013 1:41:21 PM | message detail
John who
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#233 | KommunistKoala | Posted 7/25/2013 1:46:33 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
When was this topic taken over by obnoxious LoL fans again?


I'd rather read that than posts by LMS

though he keeps posting anyway
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#234 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 1:52:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
Well now I'm going to attempt to plug many a previous result into the 2010 stats and see how things work out. Or not. It just isn't fun.
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#235 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 1:49:26 PM | message detail
Keep the results to yourself though. It'll help your future chances.
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#236 | lightsout06 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 2:59:25 PM | message detail
So are all of the FFVII anti votes going to Prinny tomorrow night?
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#237 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/25/2013 3:00:58 PM | message detail
Prinny's gonna do better on Cloud than he did on Ike.

Just because FFVII must always find new and exciting ways to disappoint.
#238 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 3:14:10 PM | message detail
Is Prinny > Armstrong the consensus?
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#239 | superange128 | Posted 7/25/2013 3:17:38 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Is Prinny > Armstrong the consensus?


I would think so since Armstrong is limited to one game that while well-liked doesn't seem like it was a HUGE seller or anything.

There's probably a bunch of Metal Gear fans who didn't buy it since it wasn't a stealth game
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#240 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 3:22:08 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Prinny's gonna do better on Cloud than he did on Ike.

Just because FFVII must always find new and exciting ways to disappoint.


Ike>Cloud
Ike>Snake round 3 confirmed
#241 | lightsout06 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 3:24:18 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Is Prinny > Armstrong the consensus?


I would think so since Armstrong is limited to one game that while well-liked doesn't seem like it was a HUGE seller or anything.

There's probably a bunch of Metal Gear fans who didn't buy it since it wasn't a stealth game


This plus RacistFAQs
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#242 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/25/2013 3:47:05 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
32------6------------83.33
31------52----------92.31
30------178--------91.57
29------336--------80.06
28------480--------72.50
27------745--------61.21
26------1155------58.44
25------1577------55.99
24------1795------51.64
23------1787------52.21
22------1724------50.35
21------1379------48.08
20------1125------48.36
19------795--------49.31
18------596--------43.46
17------424--------47.41
16------322--------50.93
15------234--------44.02
14------177--------51.98
13------105--------42.86
12------76----------43.42
11------57----------33.33
10------35----------45.71
9--------24----------45.83
8--------17----------29.41
7--------6------------33.33
6--------7------------0.00
5--------3------------33.33
4--------4------------0.00
3--------4------------0.00
2--------16----------0.00
1--------7------------14.29
0--------6------------0.00


Very high support for Epona in the top tiers but a perfect bracket still bites the dust. Once again there's fast drop of in prediction percentage from the 90s to the low 60s before slowing down and levelling off.

4 people fell off the Top 49. jtye2000, neoboman, Panthera and SoLoRiGiNaToR did not have Epona winning the match.

1 person got it wrong and survived. KanzarisKelshen also did not have Epona winning the match.
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#243 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/25/2013 4:03:58 PM | message detail
*looks at pics*

Dear lord, Kefka is winning.
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#244 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/25/2013 4:05:36 PM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
superange128 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Is Prinny > Armstrong the consensus?


I would think so since Armstrong is limited to one game that while well-liked doesn't seem like it was a HUGE seller or anything.

There's probably a bunch of Metal Gear fans who didn't buy it since it wasn't a stealth game


This plus RacistFAQs


racism against whites damn gamefaqs
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 4:06:42 PM | message detail
Looking at the picture Prinny looks more likely to win, assuming we get the same one we saw in 2010.
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#246 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/25/2013 4:11:37 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Score-Brackets-% Right
32------6------------83.33
[...]
0--------6------------0.00
.


6 perfect and 6 zero... who's gonna fail first...
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#247 | lightsout06 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 4:21:34 PM | message detail
cant tell that the dude is white with that pic for the bracket
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#248 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/25/2013 4:24:37 PM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
cant tell that the dude is white with that pic for the bracket


Are we looking at the same picture?
#249 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 5:12:25 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Looking at the picture Prinny looks more likely to win, assuming we get the same one we saw in 2010.


Prinny>Cloud confirmed :P
#250 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 5:20:17 PM | message detail
Can slime beat TJF?
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