Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1078

#1 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:25:45 AM | message detail
Hiddenblade Edition



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:28:21 AM | message detail
Shaped like a horse...
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#3 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/25/2013 6:29:36 AM | message detail
to get some voats!
#4 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 6:50:27 AM | message detail
*whinnies some more*

oh wate i mess up

.
#5 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 6:51:11 AM | message detail
neigh?
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#6 | lightsout06 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 6:56:49 AM | message detail
Altair>Ratchet>Shulk?
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#7 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:59:41 AM | message detail
Match XXXIV: (3) Shulk vs. (16) Ratchet vs. (25) Altair

Previous Contest

Shulk – N/A
N/A

Ratchet – 2010
68.39% against Eddie Riggs
43.84% against Jecht

Altair – 2010
59.12% against Liquid Snake
44.21% against Vivi

Analysis

While I expected Xenoblade characters to be quite weak I am very surprised how badly both Dunban and Reyn performed in their matches. Shulk should be the strongest character from the game, but now I doubt he has the strength to defeat Ratchet, especially if it is the version that we saw in 2010. Xenoblade just is not the type of game where the main character is so vastly more popular than anyone else in the game.

I have now taken Ratchet up to second in my expert challenge, after seeing Xenoblade flop and Sony characters perform well it was not a hard decision. He has had a few releases since we last saw him, but given Ratchet and Clank is almost a yearly thing I suspect that his potential fanbase has been getting quite saturated. Still I would not be too surprised if he comes out being a bit stronger.

While Assassin’s Creed is still going strong Altair has taken a back seat to Ezio as the most popular character in the series. With the way the series is going it is doubtful that we will see Altair in another game which means we could see him get weaker as the years pass. Right now I do not think he is too much weaker and even if he was it would take quite the drop before Altair is in danger of losing this match.

Altair’s design also keeps him relevant as all the assassins in the series have kept with the similar hooded cloak. Altair should not have much of a problem winning and I see him breaking 45%, especially if Shulk turns out to be weak. However, unless we continue to have these massive contests this may be the last time we will see Altair due to lack of nominations, unless the board decides to rally him as a returner.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Altair > Ratchet and Shulk

charmander6000’s Prediction: Altair – 44.86%, Ratchet – 33.63%, Shulk – 21.51%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#8 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/25/2013 7:04:59 AM | message detail
ffmasterjosePosted 7/25/2013 9:17:08 AMmessage detail

Can we all agree that Niko is absolute garbage and should never be allowed in a Character Battle? dudes done nothing but job himself out everytime he's in


I'll stop nominating Niko when Board 8 stops nominating Fails characters and these Toohoo or whatever crap.
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#9 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/25/2013 7:19:11 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Ragna doing 'good' is a big red flag for me in GlaDOS' match. Maybe he's just a little stronger than anticipated, but pre-contest I would've guessed him to be one of the weakest in the entire bracket. Blazblue has done absolutely awful in all of it's polls.


Yeah, I agree that Ragna's performance was the outlier. Cole got more or less the percentage I expected him to, but Ragna was far ahead of what I expected.
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#10 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 7:25:36 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
ffmasterjosePosted 7/25/2013 9:17:08 AMmessage detail

Can we all agree that Niko is absolute garbage and should never be allowed in a Character Battle? dudes done nothing but job himself out everytime he's in


I'll stop nominating Niko when Board 8 stops nominating Fails characters and these Toohoo or whatever crap.


In my defense, I don't nominate that garbage either.

.
#11 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:30:56 AM | message detail
BlazBlue did make a splash here when it was first released and GlaDOS did more than triple the guy.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#12 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/25/2013 8:38:28 AM | message detail
So I was making up my summary for my "mapping the character battle". Guess what country was absent for yesterday's big Ike-Proto showdown? Tunisia.

From: ctesjbuvf | #006 (Topic 1074) | Posted 7/23/2013 11:54:56 AM
I am in Tunisia now. No votes from this country were cast, until I did just now. I'll be the Tunisia vote this next week! You can always sew what ctes voted now!


Exact quote, complete with the typo. So now we see (or "sew") that longtime B8 regular ctes didn't vote in what ended up being one of our closest matches ever (and actually did set one new record, for smallest maximum lead by a wire-to-wire victor).

Maybe you shouldn't have bothered posting that, ctes.
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#13 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 8:38:48 AM | message detail | (edited)
I disagree. Blazblue the game has been in two polls, and it didn't awful in both. Ragna was in one character poll prior to this contest, and he did awful as well. Blazblue is a a very obscure fighting game series on GameFAQs. It basically has no reason to be even decent and I wouldn't be surprised if Ragna ended up in the Bottom 20 of the xstats by the end of this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#14 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/25/2013 8:42:18 AM | message detail
Lloyd, Kratos Aurion, and Yuri would easily beat Niko at this point, wouldn't they?

Agree that Jade needs to go, though.
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#15 | swordz9 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:46:21 AM | message detail
Tales characters might be weak, but I still like seeing them. It makes for easy matches and I get to see some of my favorite characters. It really is a damn shame they're so weak since Yuri Lowell is leagues above any FF character.
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#16 | lightsout06 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2013 8:54:16 AM | message detail
Yuri deserves more respect but I would vote for Chester over Asbel Lhant
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#17 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:55:23 AM | message detail
I disagree. Blazblue the game has been in two polls, and it didn't awful in both. Ragna was in one character poll prior to this contest, and he did awful as well. Blazblue is a a very obscure fighting game series on GameFAQs. It basically has no reason to be even decent and I wouldn't be surprised if Ragna ended up in the Bottom 20 of the xstats by the end of this.

But he is weak, he got 23% against at best a midcarder and will still look terrible in the x-stats when this is done. There's no reason to think GlaDOS is in trouble just because she missed your expectation by a few points.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#18 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:55:34 AM | message detail
All my Saltybucks on Shulk!

...

...

Ya, I know I'm off the leaderboard as of midnight tonight.
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#19 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:56:31 AM | message detail
Ratchet shall win.
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#20 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:58:21 AM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
All my Saltybucks on Shulk!

...

...

Ya, I know I'm off the leaderboard as of midnight tonight.


better hope Shulk picked up Monado Rally somewhere
#21 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/25/2013 8:59:09 AM | message detail
Epona will finish with 60% on Mordin and 70% on Niko. I'm guessing that puts her roughly around the Sub-Zero/Jill solid midcard level (though Subz may be a bit stronger and Jill a bit weaker now). That should be more than enough to beat GlaDOS in a 1v1, but I think Ike's presence will, in turn, be enough to switch things up.
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#22 | armitage999 | Posted 7/25/2013 8:59:28 AM | message detail
Eh, Roman Bellic would've beaten Epona.

(not really but it's fun to dream)

Kefka/Zack Fair/Ryu Hayabusa in a couple of days. Hey Kefka, do good. Okay?
#23 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 8:59:57 AM | message detail
Niko is not going to be anywhere near as strong as he was in 2010.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#24 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:15 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Shulk
50%
2 Votes

Ratchet
25%
1 Votes

Altair
25%
1 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 4
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POKEFEAR
#25 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:29 AM | message detail
Shulk
33.33%
9 Votes

Ratchet
25.93%
7 Votes

Altair
40.74%
11 Votes
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#26 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:29 AM | message detail
I'd laugh if this held


Shulk
55.56%
5 Votes

Ratchet
22.22%
2 Votes

Altair
22.22%
2 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#27 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:32 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Shulk
44.44%
8 Votes
Your Pick

Ratchet
27.78%
5 Votes

Altair
27.78%
5 Votes

Total Votes: 18
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#28 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:41 AM | message detail
Shulk
38.1%
8 Votes

Ratchet
23.81%
5 Votes

Altair
38.1%
8 Votes
Your Pick
#29 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:00:44 AM | message detail
9th vote for Altair.Okay how some people are so fast?I have never been in the first 10 guys that vote.I mean do they have super fast Internet?
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#30 | paulg235 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:01:05 AM | message detail
Shulk
33.33%
5 Votes
Ratchet
33.33%
5 Votes
Your Pick
Altair
33.33%
5 Votes
Total Votes: 15
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#31 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 9:01:07 AM | message detail
ugh altair
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#32 | vcharon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:01:30 AM | message detail
Not a bad start for Shulk, all things considered at this point.
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:>
#33 | superange128 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:01:53 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
9th vote for Altair.Okay how some people are so fast?I have never been in the first 10 guys that vote.I mean do they have super fast Internet?


I don't do it but in the First Vote Championship here on b8 people use scripts to allow them to vote right on the dot
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#34 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:01:56 AM | message detail
9th vote for Altair.Okay how some people are so fast?I have never been in the first 10 guys that vote.I mean do they have super fast Internet?

Some people use a script, I refresh and sometimes get a top 10.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#35 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/25/2013 9:02:01 AM | message detail
Dang, looks like my intuition was way off.
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#36 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/25/2013 9:02:25 AM | message detail
So can we limit next contest to only one terribly weak Xenoblade character?
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#37 | swordz9 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:02:51 AM | message detail
Who was it saying Shulk > Altair? lmao
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#38 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:09 AM | message detail
Dodged a bullet here. Really thought Ratchet would keep this closer.
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#39 | paulg235 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:14 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
So can we limit next contest to only one terribly weak Xenoblade character?

And while we're at it, one terribly weak Tales Of character?
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#40 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:19 AM | message detail
Okay now Shulk just give Ratchet 3% and we'll call it a match.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#41 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:31 AM | message detail
I got 4th from refreshing today.
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POKEFEAR
#42 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:03:41 AM | message detail
So a script?I had the first vote on Balthier though.
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#43 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:04:05 AM | message detail
And while we're at it, one terribly weak Tales Of character?

With the exception of Symphonia we usually only have 1 from each game.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#44 | xp1337 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:04:27 AM | message detail
Glad I remembered that I never changed from Altair > Shulk > Ratchet and switched Shulk/Ratchet about 30 minutes ago. Though they're closer than I expected.
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#45 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/25/2013 9:04:34 AM | message detail
Phew glad I didn't succumb to PSplatformerfear
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#46 | spooky96 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:04:53 AM | message detail
lol scripts. Seriously? C'mon.

>_>
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#47 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 9:05:16 AM | message detail
Pretty disappointing result. Altair is not a character I enjoy doing well.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:05:53 AM | message detail
lol scripts. Seriously? C'mon.

>_>


Voting first here is serious business.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#49 | Xuxon | Posted 7/25/2013 9:06:19 AM | message detail
From: xp1337 | Posted: 7/25/2013 12:04:27 PM | #044
Glad I remembered that I never changed from Altair > Shulk > Ratchet and switched Shulk/Ratchet about 30 minutes ago. Though they're closer than I expected.

i remembered literally seconds before the match started hah
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#50 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/25/2013 9:06:40 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Pretty disappointing result. Altair is not a character I enjoy doing well.


Agree.. he's incredibly bland, just like AC1 IMO. Ezio, Connor, and even Desmond are far better representatives from the AC series.
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