Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1077

#251 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:34:09 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
raginbull911 posted...
People actually thought Mordin could win?


I did. Not many others though!


This ruins your perfect score :(
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#252 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:34:46 PM | message detail
Link/Mario LFF should be quite a bit worse than Ike/Epona LFF. You're talking about two gaming icons from the same company vs. two characters that happen to share the same company, with basically no other similarities between them.
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#253 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:35:13 PM | message detail
You'd have a stronger point there if Seph hadn't SFFed Vincent to literally 10%. Seph + Vincent only got 53.2% on Link there. Link's only x-statted to get like 56-57% on Seph alone so yeah that really isn't all that devastating. It's enough to change results that are already close but replace Vincent with say Altair and I'm not convinced Link loses.
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#254 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/24/2013 9:35:34 PM | message detail
Niko is almost assuredly going to be much weaker this contest, not a stellar performance by Epona, GlaDOS looking good to win the next round.
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#255 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:35:37 PM | message detail
I don't expect Ike/Epona LFF to be quite as severe, and I didn't really think GlaDOS was going to be THAT close to Ike to start with.

I'm probably wrong about one or both of those assumptions, but that's why I took Ike to round 3.
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#256 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:35:41 PM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
raginbull911 posted...
People actually thought Mordin could win?


I did. Not many others though!


This ruins your perfect score :(


It does, but it's OK. I made it far and I'm not done yet. Not giving up just because of one match!
#257 | vcharon | Posted 7/24/2013 9:35:49 PM | message detail
I think GlaDOS wins relatively easily, but even if she doesn't, Epona is going up against Snake so I'm not sure what the point of voting for Epona is unless you actually prefer her to Mordin.
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#258 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:36:48 PM | message detail
I remember hearing about some guy who tried to make the dialogue in Ocarina of Time more entertaining.by naming himself "I say".
#259 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:37:25 PM | message detail
Hell replace Vincent with Samus and I'm not entirely sure Link loses. I don't think Vincent is hurting Seph as much as you think there.
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#260 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:37:59 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
You'd have a stronger point there if Seph hadn't SFFed Vincent to literally 10%. Seph + Vincent only got 53.2% on Link there. Link's only x-statted to get like 56-57% on Seph alone so yeah that really isn't all that devastating. It's enough to change results that are already close but replace Vincent with say Altair and I'm not convinced Link loses.


Well, no, he won't (and this is why I didn't take Snake), because he'll take it out of Mario's hide as voters who prefer Mario desperately try to save Link and "rallies" and such.

But in a theoretical 'blind' match, Seph probably wins that match outright if you remove Vincent. The point is that it matters. There's never been an instance where it didn't matter.

Why should I believe Ike/Epona is the match to break the rule?
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#261 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:39:24 PM | message detail
Oh, I forgot to post the chart from the night match:

Time | GlaDOS | Cole | Ragna | Votes
0:05 | 60.22% | 21.33% | 18.46% | 558
1:00 | 59.17% | 23.13% | 17.70% | 4847
2:00 | 57.36% | 24.15% | 18.48% | 2770
3:00 | 58.50% | 22.78% | 18.72% | 2147
4:00 | 59.85% | 21.66% | 18.49% | 1579
5:00 | 58.00% | 23.29% | 18.72% | 1357
6:00 | 58.12% | 24.24% | 17.65% | 1275
7:00 | 57.43% | 25.04% | 17.53% | 1386
8:00 | 58.98% | 24.06% | 16.96% | 1604
9:00 | 59.19% | 23.89% | 16.93% | 1796
10:00 | 59.02% | 25.72% | 15.26% | 1874
11:00 | 59.20% | 24.82% | 15.98% | 1821
12:00 | 59.36% | 24.15% | 16.48% | 1826

GlaDOS is actually pretty consistent here. Cole does better during the day, while Ragna does better at night and gets to be the first character this contest to have two best hours!

X-Stats:

GlaDOS – 50.00%
Cole MacGrath – 28.85%
Ragna the Bloodedge – 22.92%

GlaDOS's prediction percentage was 83.36%
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#262 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:39:40 PM | message detail
It's debatable if it mattered there to any notable extent, though. Replace Mario with Solid Snake and I don't think Link suddenly explodes to 45% I don't think he even gets to 40%.
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#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:40:18 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Why should I believe Ike/Epona is the match to break the rule?


Shaped like a horse to break the rule
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#264 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:41:53 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Hrm? I'm saying that Ike's place on the Nintendo hierarchy is guaranteed to be lower than Epona's. He has Smash. She has Ocarina of Time. There's really no contest.


Name all the OoT characters you'd pick to beat Ike.


ooo I want to play

Zelda
Ganondorf
Epona
Happy Mask Salesman
Saria
Darunia
Ruto
King Zora
The Deku Tree
Mido
The Kokiri sitting on the shop awning
The Kokiri shopkeeper
"Please with C" guy
Bombchu bowling girl
Impa
Nabooru
Koume
Kotake
Running Man
The Carpenters
Malon
Talon
Inigo
The lady who lost her dog
The dog she lost
Those weird guys who always hang out together
An empty bottle
Gohma
Morphs
Bongo Bongo
The guy in the bridge house with all the pots
The Carpenter's creepy son
Dampe
Graveyard kid
A Redead
The horse Impa and Zelda escape on
Ike
The picture of Yoshi you can see through a window
Skull Kid
The Great Fairy
Biggoron
The Goron named Link
A Bombchu
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#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:42:32 PM | message detail
#266 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:42:41 PM | message detail
I think Ike would have an easier time of the match if GlaDOS was a more instantly recognizable and well-known character. Epona probably crumbles the more characters in the poll that a voter can actually recognize, because I can't see Link's Horse putting up a lot of % against characters who aren't losers like Mordin and Niko.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#267 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/24/2013 9:43:35 PM | message detail
Thar we go, Epona
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#268 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/24/2013 9:44:39 PM | message detail
If we get "please with C" guy in the contest, all f***ing bets are off.
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#269 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:45:15 PM | message detail
Not sure why some people here are so confident in GlaDOS. Sure, she's the favorite, but by not that much.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5173
She literally couldn't break 60% on all-American generic action figure and what's-his-name from that cult JRPG.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3800
She was stomped by Kirby.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4553
GlaDOS (along with Chell) couldn't beat an aging set of characters, despite Portal 2 having been released earlier in the year along with Steam giving away the first Portal for free for a while before that.

Yeah, she's the favorite for sure now. But I wouldn't be very confident in her. Truth is, I'm not very confident in either GlaDOS, Ike, or Epona. It'll be a good match.
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Drop it to the floor...
#270 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:45:47 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I think Ike would have an easier time of the match if GlaDOS was a more instantly recognizable and well-known character. Epona probably crumbles the more characters in the poll that a voter can actually recognize, because I can't see Link's Horse putting up a lot of % against characters who aren't losers like Mordin and Niko.


This. Peach syndrome just seems logical for her. How many Zelda fans have not played Brawl or Portal? Can't be all that many.
#271 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:48:12 PM | message detail
GlaDOS went from 67% on Fawful to 71% on Cole, so she's looking stronger this year at least.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#272 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:49:07 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
GlaDOS went from 67% on Fawful to 71% on Cole, so she's looking stronger this year at least.


You think? Because Fawful is at least instantly recognizable. Cole is...yeah.
#273 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/24/2013 9:49:46 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
The Goron named Link


Imagine if we got THIS guy into the contest instead of Link.
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#274 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:50:25 PM | message detail
Wheatley is place at around a low midcarder and considering GlaDOS is stronger she is in good position.

Only issue is if you believe Niko has the same strength then by the end of this Epona will be about as strong as Jill.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#275 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:50:34 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Because Fawful is at least instantly recognizable.


No, he's not.
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#276 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:51:15 PM | message detail
Loved the list, Moogle. You made me lol heartily.

ChenKenichiFan posted...
If we get "please with C" guy in the contest, all f***ing bets are off.


This, first of all. Also, the Goron named Link could be another good one.

Also, if you want the picture of Yoshi, why not throw in Talon's Bowser pendant? The sky's the limit here!
#277 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:51:26 PM | message detail
Cole probably beats Fawful. Not by much, but the GBA Mario RPGs are kinda niche and Fawful is a kinda minor character all things considered.
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#278 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:51:30 PM | message detail
You think? Because Fawful is at least instantly recognizable. Cole is...yeah.

Only if you don't own a PS3 and even then Fawful is not recognizable unless you play the Mario & Luigi games.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#279 | Omniscientless | Posted 7/24/2013 9:51:35 PM | message detail
I think the important thing to consider on the Ike/Epona/GlaDOS showdown will be whether Ike and Epona SFF each other enough to allow GlaDOS to sneak by. As long as GlaDOS isn't too far in strength from the two (and we know she's not), she should be fine.
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#280 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:51:43 PM | message detail
Wheatley is not a low midcarder unless you're ready to call Crash one, and I'm not. And I picked the guy to win.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#281 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:52:21 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
MoogleKupo141 posted...
The Goron named Link


Imagine if we got THIS guy into the contest instead of Link.


not Link takes out Crono round 1
just watch it happen
#282 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:53:01 PM | message detail
Wheatley is not a low midcarder unless you're ready to call Crash one, and I'm not. And I picked the guy to win.

You must have high standards, borderline fodder then.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#283 | Blairville | Posted 7/24/2013 9:53:13 PM | message detail
Link the Goron. My god.
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#284 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:53:43 PM | message detail
You really are a genius, Moogle. Never would have thought of that.
#285 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:54:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
Using the patented The Boss Low Midcarder Line...The Boss would beat the crap out of Wheatley and Crash, I think.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#286 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:54:24 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
GlaDOS went from 67% on Fawful to 71% on Cole, so she's looking stronger this year at least.


Westernized action characters haven't been doing too well in this contest.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5162
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5159
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5144
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#287 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:54:37 PM | message detail
Why exactly do you think not calling Crash a low midcarder is a "high standard"

Is it because he doubled Vercetti? I'm not sure that's entirely relevant anymore.

Fully expect Crash to finish around 17% on the x-stats which is fodder.
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#288 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:55:11 PM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
You really are a genius, Moogle. Never would have thought of that.


aww thanks
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#289 | LOLContests | Posted 7/24/2013 9:56:07 PM | message detail
I don't think we should look at Tommy's drop off and use it to to extrapolate for Niko. Niko's debut happened after GTA had already dropped off in popularity on GameFAQS, so he should have less far to fall.
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#290 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:56:48 PM | message detail
Crash is borderline low midcard on his best day.
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#291 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:56:57 PM | message detail
Why exactly do you think not calling Crash a low midcarder is a "high standard"

Is it because he doubled Vercetti? I'm not sure that's entirely relevant anymore.


His performance against Hayabusa
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#292 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/24/2013 9:57:33 PM | message detail
Holy crap, "please with C" guy pays 300 Rupees for Lon Lon Milk? I had no idea!

GET HIM IN THE CONTEST. EVERYONE MUST KNOW.
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#293 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/24/2013 9:58:11 PM | message detail
oh my god whoever wins the guru better nominate Link the goron
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#294 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:58:45 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Why exactly do you think not calling Crash a low midcarder is a "high standard"

Is it because he doubled Vercetti? I'm not sure that's entirely relevant anymore.


His performance against Hayabusa


38% on Hayabusa isn't THAT stellar of a performance, honestly. He's basically equal with Spy.
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#295 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 10:00:09 PM | message detail
Honestly, the thing most worrying me about Ike next round is that RIDICULOUS board vote Epona had. If that sticks around, I'm not sure Ike has the trends to recover, intrinsic strength be damned.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#296 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/24/2013 10:01:04 PM | message detail
I'd love to see how well Link the Goron does. Unfortunately, I suspect he'll be banned under the Dark Link rule.
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#297 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 10:01:28 PM | message detail
38% on Hayabusa isn't THAT stellar of a performance, honestly. He's basically equal with Spy.

Sure it is, Hayabusa has shown to have strength, he went even with Zero and for what it's worth won over Master Chief.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#298 | LOLContests | Posted 7/24/2013 10:01:41 PM | message detail
Yeah, I second all of the Link the Goron love.
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#299 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/24/2013 10:01:52 PM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
oh my god whoever wins the guru better nominate Link the goron


We should've thought of this sooner.

He could've gotten into this contest easily.

We had an opportunity and we missed it.
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#300 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 10:01:52 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure Hayabusa would ~60-40 a lot of high fodder

I mean Crash has definitely improved from 2004 and all but Ryu Hayabusa isn't exactly an elite guy. Also being primarily X-Box means he's more prone to having guys overachieve against him.
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