Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1077

#201 | Achromatic | Posted 7/24/2013 9:17:44 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Ike can win next round without any sort of super crazy scenarios. Honestly if you were planning on LFF split for HORSE and Ike to let GLaDOS through I think that's a dumb move. HORSE has no Smash presence so there shouldn't really be that much LFF there.


Eh, I went with a few crazy ideas it is true. But hey you don't get any upsets right if you don't pull the trigger.

viva la magikarp, yah?
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#202 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:18:10 PM | message detail
Nintendo characters always cannibalize each other. I can't think of a single instance where they ever haven't.
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#203 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:18:17 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
occupies a spot on the Nintendo ladder lower than Epona (that's guaranteed)


I wouldn't go that far. I think the B8 hivemind has convinced itself Epona is a universally beloved figure.
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#204 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/24/2013 9:18:17 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
hylianknight3 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Kinda funny. Epona's performance went from "WHOA!" to "Eh" in one update.


Well, there's the problem. You said "WHOA!", and she slowed down.


If Mordin somehow manages to come back to win this outright, that's totally going to win the "Why Did They Lose?"


We can still use it next round when Epona loses. She'll have the same massive board vote and then an even more epic collapse.
#205 | isNotPerfect | Posted 7/24/2013 9:18:35 PM | message detail
Epona is at a 467 vote lead, and gaining each update. I think Epona is gonna have a strong power hour, then stall during the night.
#206 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:18:58 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Ike can win next round without any sort of super crazy scenarios. Honestly if you were planning on LFF split for HORSE and Ike to let GLaDOS through I think that's a dumb move. HORSE has no Smash presence so there shouldn't really be that much LFF there.


But if Epona is confirmed for Smash 4, all bets are off...!
#207 | Blairville | Posted 7/24/2013 9:19:07 PM | message detail
I expect Epona to stabilize at around 48%. Because I need her to.

heheh stabilize

stable
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#208 | Achromatic | Posted 7/24/2013 9:19:07 PM | message detail
Actually according to gurus glados is the favorite. Well there you go.
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#209 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:19:08 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Achromatic posted...
I have glados > epona next round so go my epona, drop like a rock.


So let's talk about a ridiculously crazy scenario here: What if Niko suffered an equivalent drop to what Tommy Vercetti had from 2003 to 2007? Where does that leave Mordin and Epona? I suspect that puts Epona at a level where she's considerably lower than Ike. And if so...what if GLaDOS is weaker than we thought (her performance wasn't exactly earthshattering) and Ike takes it? Think there's any chance of it happening?


There's always a chance of stuff happening, but I think the two nintendo characters would eat each other rather nicely. I don't know I came away with good thoughts about glados given she was able to put up a nice percentage on two random folk.


But was it? Those were literally Cole and literally Ragna the Bloodedge. We're talking a super unlikeable character design and the lead of a relatively obscure animu fightgame. GladOS couldn't crack 60% in that match. Be honest here: Doesn't Spyro's crowd look better to you? Wouldn't you expect him to put up a number closeish to GLaDOS' percent? Like a max of five percent off? Those were two unknowns and I think GLaDOS Spyro'd her match. And even then, she didn't even manage to triple Cole. That doesn't look that good to me.
#210 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:19:09 PM | message detail
I mean, let's dispel the fiction that Proto Man is somehow weak right now. 27% on Snake is a good bit better than what I would give Epona.
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#211 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:19:59 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo characters always cannibalize each other. I can't think of a single instance where they ever haven't.


Depending on what you mean by "cannibalize," Kirby/Peach a few days ago.

Kirby still well underperformed what he would normally get against Terra regardless though.
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#212 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/24/2013 9:20:10 PM | message detail
Hrm? I'm saying that Ike's place on the Nintendo hierarchy is guaranteed to be lower than Epona's. He has Smash. She has Ocarina of Time. There's really no contest.
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#213 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:20:27 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo characters always cannibalize each other. I can't think of a single instance where they ever haven't.


Define cannibalize. I can think of several instances where they help up well.
#214 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:20:51 PM | message detail
I took GlaDOS to Round 3 because Nintendo LFF always seems to hurt big time, but indirectly I would take Ike.
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#215 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/24/2013 9:20:53 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I mean, let's dispel the fiction that Proto Man is somehow weak right now. 27% on Snake is a good bit better than what I would give Epona.


I would give Epona 50.95% on Snake, you fool.
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#216 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:21:14 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nintendo characters always cannibalize each other. I can't think of a single instance where they ever haven't.


Depending on what you mean by "cannibalize," Kirby/Peach a few days ago.

Kirby still well underperformed what he would normally get against Terra regardless though.


That's what I mean by cannibalize. There's never been an instance where pure Nintendo characters haven't hurt each other significantly.
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#217 | Kibago | Posted 7/24/2013 9:21:30 PM | message detail
hey, percentage gain! that's better.
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#218 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:21:44 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Hrm? I'm saying that Ike's place on the Nintendo hierarchy is guaranteed to be lower than Epona's. He has Smash. She has Ocarina of Time. There's really no contest.


She's a horse who's failing to double Mordin Solus, as well. She doesn't look too good. Almost...Peachlike.
#219 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:21:51 PM | message detail
Nintendo doesn't always cannibalize it's only really glaring when you've got guys who are mainly Smash based.

Like Link/Mario/Samus/Other 4 way matches Link still dominates he just makes Mario and Samus look bad.

I think Epona/Ike interaction should be negligible and if GLaDOS wins it's mostly because she's just the strongest of the three (which is possible)
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#220 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:22:11 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Closest Matches
1. Alucard – 36.32% vs. Captain Falcon – 35.95% - Round 1 – 0.37%
2. Ike – 35.81% vs. Proto Man – 35.26% - Round 1 – 0.55%
3. Tharja – 36.21% vs. Tiny Tina – 35.35% - Round 1 – 0.86%
4. Captain Viridian – 13.51% vs. Peacock – 11.60% - Round 1 – 1.91%
5. Hero – 25.76% vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 23.26% - Round 1 – 2.50%
6. Isaac – 15.36% vs. Tingle – 11.97% - Round 1 – 3.39%
7. Miles Edgeworth – 28.18% vs. Agent 47 – 23.63% - Round 1 – 4.55%
8. Chrom – 29.78% vs. Heavy – 24.61% - Round 1 – 5.17%
9. Crash Bandicoot – 42.59% vs. Wheatley – 36.76% - Round 1 – 5.83%
10. Proto Man – 35.26 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 28.94% - Round 1 – 6.32%

Top 10 Smallest Day Vote Gaps
1. Ike – 11023 vs. Proto Man – 10854 – Round 1 – 169
2. Hero – 8311 vs. Rinoa Heartilly – 7503 – Round 1 – 808
3. Miles Edgeworth – 8763 vs. Agent 47 – 7350 – Round 1 – 1413
4. Chrom – 9589 vs. Heavy – 7924 – Round 1 – 1665
5. Proto Man – 10854 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 1945
6. Fei Fong Wong – 6288 vs. Dan Hibiki – 4217 – Round 1 – 2071
7. Ike – 11023 vs. Dr. Robotnik – 8909 – Round 1 – 2114
8. N – 8892 vs. Wander – 6714 – Round 1 – 2178
9. Meta Knight – 7468 vs. Archer – 4767 – Round 1 – 2701
10. Yuri Lowell – 8637 vs. Face McShooty – 5691 – Round 1 – 2946
10. Locke Cole – 8787 vs. CATS – 5841 – Round 1 – 2946

Top 5 Least Popular Day Polls
1. Ness vs. Locke Cole vs. CATS – Round 1 – 27607
2. Vincent Valentine vs. KOS-MOS vs. Dunban – Round 1 – 30485
3. Luigi vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Jade – Round 1 – 30674
4. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 30786
5. Bayonetta vs. N vs. Wander – Round 1 – 30900

Top 5 Least Impressive Day Winners
1. Ike – Round 1 – 11023
2. Ness – Round 1 – 12979
3. The Boss – Round 1 – 14690
4. Morrigan Aensland – Round 1 – 14988
5. Kirby – Round 1 – 15109

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
3. KOS-MOS – Round 1 – 10944
4. Proto Man – Round 1 – 10854
5. Professor Layton – Round 1 – 10587
6. Captain Olimar – Round 1 – 9829
7. Chrom – Round 1 – 9589
8. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 8909
9. N – Round 1 – 8892
10. Locke Cole – Round 1 – 8787

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 38.19%
2. Crash Bandicoot vs. Wheatley vs. Tommy Vercetti – Round 1 – 40.90%
3. Ike vs. Proto Man vs. Dr. Robotnik – Round 1 – 42.42%
4. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 42.49%
5. Morrigan Aensland vs. Miles Edgeworth vs. Agent 47 – Round 1 – 45.15%
6. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 51.28%
7. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 51.46%
8. The Boss vs. Chrom vs. Heavy – Round 1 – 52.99%
9. Sub-Zero vs. Garrus Vakarian vs. Frank West – Round 1 – 58.54%
10. Bayonetta vs. N vs. Wander – Round 1 – 61.00%
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Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#221 | ninkendo | Posted 7/24/2013 9:22:30 PM | message detail
I forget in Twilight Princess is the horse there Epona too or do you name it?
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#222 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/24/2013 9:23:11 PM | message detail
It's Epona

Can't name it.
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#223 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:23:27 PM | message detail
I think that's Epona as well.
#224 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:23:30 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Nintendo doesn't always cannibalize it's only really glaring when you've got guys who are mainly Smash based.

Like Link/Mario/Samus/Other 4 way matches Link still dominates he just makes Mario and Samus look bad.

I think Epona/Ike interaction should be negligible and if GLaDOS wins it's mostly because she's just the strongest of the three (which is possible)


But Link still underperforms. I mean, is there any match where two Ninty characters have shared the poll and one of the Nintendo characters didn't underperform?

This is, like, the most basic of the basic stuff. It's a cardinal rule.
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#225 | Blairville | Posted 7/24/2013 9:23:36 PM | message detail
Really? I remember renaming Epona.
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#226 | Kibago | Posted 7/24/2013 9:23:48 PM | message detail
i thought you could change the horse's name in TP
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#227 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:24:48 PM | message detail
He doesn't underperform that much, really. Like if LFF that wasn't from Smash was a big thing he'd actually be in position to lose, but he never is.
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#228 | Sorozone | Posted 7/24/2013 9:24:58 PM | message detail
It's default name is Epona, though I'm sure you can change it if you want.
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#229 | Xuxon | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:03 PM | message detail
i took GLaDOS with Mordin in the poll but that was probably a dumb move that will turn out well only because i'm wrong about Mordin

i mean i would pick GLaDOS 1v1 over Ike but not by enough to win that 3-way
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#230 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:30 PM | message detail
you can change Link's name too

the horse is still Epona
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#231 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:38 PM | message detail
I don't think that Ike/Epona LFF will be awful, but GlaDOS shouldn't be too far behind them regardless.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#232 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:49 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
She's a horse who's failing to double Mordin Solus, as well. She doesn't look too good. Almost...Peachlike.


Didn't you have Mordin winning this match, IIRC?
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Drop it to the floor...
#233 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:49 PM | message detail
In Twilight Princess, you get to name Epona before starting the game (right after naming Link).
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#234 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/24/2013 9:25:55 PM | message detail
Epona is outright smashing Mordin.
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#235 | ninkendo | Posted 7/24/2013 9:26:10 PM | message detail
I've been really wanting to replay TP recently. Especially since getting a Wii U.

Maybe after Wind Waker HD
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#236 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:26:37 PM | message detail
Also, just gonna leave this here.

Tommy Vercetti (2003c) has a strength of 25.58 against Base Link.
Tommy Vercetti (2007c) has a strength of 16.25 against Base Link.

Niko (2010c) has a strength of 19.13 against Base Link.

Apply a similar factor of decay to Niko and you get 12.15. Obviously that's a little too low, but adjust it upward a point or two and it's probably pretty close to his current value. And this is what Epona can pull against a guy that weak?
#237 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:27:39 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
She's a horse who's failing to double Mordin Solus, as well. She doesn't look too good. Almost...Peachlike.


Didn't you have Mordin winning this match, IIRC?


Yes. And it turned out Mordin was very weak. Niko is performing as I expected him to and Mordin isn't, which suggests to me that my mistake was thinking Mordin would be better than he is.
#238 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/24/2013 9:28:00 PM | message detail
Huh, Mordin has barely moved in the last four updates. Nearly all of Epona's percentage is going to Niko. I expected him to follow in Vercetti's footsteps and look like total garbage, but to his credit, he'll exit this contest as clearly the strongest GTA rep.
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#239 | WhiteLens | Posted 7/24/2013 9:28:03 PM | message detail
You name Epona, hell you can name her "My Ass" if you wanted to.
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#240 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/24/2013 9:29:18 PM | message detail
247 entrants, and Carl Johnson still can't make the field.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#241 | Lopen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:29:27 PM | message detail
Epona vs Crash Bandicoot who ya got.
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#242 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:29:47 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
He doesn't underperform that much, really. Like if LFF that wasn't from Smash was a big thing he'd actually be in position to lose, but he never is.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2920

Barely gets 53% on Sephiroth (not Cloud) with VINCENT VALENTINE also in the match.

Cardinal. Rule.
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#243 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:30:41 PM | message detail
Niko is actually winning some serious percentage. He is GTA's strongest rep, I think.
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Drop it to the floor...
#244 | Achromatic | Posted 7/24/2013 9:30:42 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Lopen posted...
He doesn't underperform that much, really. Like if LFF that wasn't from Smash was a big thing he'd actually be in position to lose, but he never is.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2920

Barely gets 53% on Sephiroth (not Cloud) with VINCENT VALENTINE also in the match.

Cardinal. Rule.


On the other hand dude quadrupled Vincent what a beast.
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:30:56 PM | message detail
247 entrants, and Carl Johnson still can't make the field.

Board doesn't nominate him, what chance does he have with the casuals?
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Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#246 | raginbull911 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:31:22 PM | message detail
People actually thought Mordin could win?
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#247 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/24/2013 9:32:06 PM | message detail
Wait I knew that match existed and I still didn't take Snake to win the contest

I'm an idiot
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#248 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/24/2013 9:32:54 PM | message detail
C.J. Never needs to come back to the contest. He'll be even weaker than Tommy. We can focus our efforts on Franklin if we want to see GameFAQs be racist again.
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#249 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/24/2013 9:33:23 PM | message detail
raginbull911 posted...
People actually thought Mordin could win?


I did. Not many others though!
#250 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/24/2013 9:33:30 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Hrm? I'm saying that Ike's place on the Nintendo hierarchy is guaranteed to be lower than Epona's. He has Smash. She has Ocarina of Time. There's really no contest.


Name all the OoT characters you'd pick to beat Ike.
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