Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1077

#451 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 12:03:54 AM | message detail
Mordin is coming dangerously close to cutting Epona. Considering the lead difference, that's pretty impressive.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#452 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 12:13:24 AM | message detail
Just in case Mordin does cut Epona, let it be known I called that happening before the first 5 minute update!

If he doesn't then just forget I said this.
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#453 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/25/2013 12:20:16 AM | message detail
What a glorious day. I get to do Shakespeare in NYC for my first time, then come home to see Epona K'ing some A. Great work on the board-vote, guys!

I'd probably take Epona to be the strongest character in this nine-pack, but I still don't trust Epona to do well with Ike in the poll -- gotta take GLaDOS next round, at least until we see more ME-characters. It's not that Ike/Epona have a lot of overlap, but Ike's fanbase probably doesn't budge much and Epona's SFF'ing abilities don't go much beyond ZELDAFEAR. GameSpot (haw haw) had Epona getting 60% on Navi there...not the best sign of how Nintendo-fans will support her against other Nintendo characters.

Still, a win's a win and she could still reach Round Three. The stampede continues...!
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#454 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 12:23:57 AM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
I'm a supporter of earliest in-game appearance round, like we got in 2003 and 2007. To me, this should be the rounds:

R1: Full Body
R2: Closeup
R3: Earliest In-Game Appearance
R4: Most Recent Appearance
R5: Dueling Characters
Final: ???

If we have an extra round like in the 2010 contests you could put in an Xtreme Closeup Round like we got in 2005.

For games I like:

R1: Box Art
R2: Character Art
R3: 4x4 Characters (like that one round in the Series Contest)
R4: Title Screen (How has this not been a round theme in any Game Contest so far?)
R5/R6: ??


IIRC "Earliest Appearance" was the R3 theme in the 2002 and 2007 contests. Otherwise it has always been just the Sprite Round, with 2005 being the exception (the polygon round was R3 and the sprite round was right after) and 2008 being another exception for featuring no sprite round. Rivalry Rumble also did not feature a sprite round. Our 32-entrant contests all had the sprite round in R2.
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#455 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 12:27:01 AM | message detail
I have no idea what to think of this match. I honestly would pick Ragna over Niko (lol GTA). Mordin probably beats Cole, but Epona will likely finish with a much lower percentage than GLaDOS did.

GLaDOS is still safe methinks.
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#456 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:27:33 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I honestly would pick Ragna over Niko


Wrong.
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#457 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/25/2013 12:29:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
Ragna is more this site's kind of character, and lol GTA.

EDIT: Actually forget it. Niko is probably not a whole lot weaker than Cole, if he's even weaker at all. Cole's only advantage is being less of a normal human in terms of abilities.

Yeah GLaDOS vs. Epona is a debate now. It shouldn't be, but it is.
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#458 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:29:21 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Ragna is more this site's kind of character


Wrong.
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#459 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 12:32:36 AM | message detail
I think Ragna could feasibly put up better percentages in a match with a huge powerhouse type that doesn't get anti-voted (like Snake or something) than Niko but that's about it.
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#460 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 12:37:05 AM | message detail
Go Epona!

GlaDOS is really overrated in here for some reason. Her first round performance was awful, and it'll be a shame if she only wins round 2 because of LFF.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:38:36 AM | message detail
What were you expecting GlaDOS to do if you thought that was an awful performance?
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#462 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/25/2013 12:39:03 AM | message detail
Ragna doing 'good' is a big red flag for me in GlaDOS' match. Maybe he's just a little stronger than anticipated, but pre-contest I would've guessed him to be one of the weakest in the entire bracket. Blazblue has done absolutely awful in all of it's polls.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:41:32 AM | message detail
Well, it's not like GlaDOS is going to suddenly become midtier after what she was in 2010, but I thought what she did was fine. I'd be kind of skeptical of her ability to score big blowouts.
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#464 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 12:43:13 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
What were you expecting GlaDOS to do if you thought that was an awful performance?


Something better than just barely ousting Spyro's percentage.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#465 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/25/2013 12:47:41 AM | message detail
Epona isn't really impressing me here.

She could still make round 3 because lol Ike and GlaDOS might not even be strong enough to take advantage of Epona/Ike LFF.
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#466 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/25/2013 12:49:10 AM | message detail
I still like Ike's performance the best of these three despite him almost losing. At least we know Protoman's actually pretty decent.
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#467 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 12:50:08 AM | message detail
I always felt Ike/Protoman/Robotnik was a 3 point match. Nothing really changing that from any of the results.
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#468 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/25/2013 2:04:58 AM | message detail
Why are people so afraid of Dark Link
I would give him 70% of the power if Link,something like Megaman and Megaman X
He would lose to Charizard
#469 | Lopen | Posted 7/25/2013 2:15:05 AM | message detail
Hell yeah Mordin cut Epona for 4 votes like an hour ago

Score one for me
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#470 | creativename | Posted 7/25/2013 2:47:46 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Why are people so afraid of Dark Link
I would give him 70% of the power if Link,something like Megaman and Megaman X
He would lose to Charizard

MMX may be stronger than Mega Man

He is at least almost equal. So that's not a good example for saying Dark Link would be weak.
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#471 | turbopuns | Posted 7/25/2013 3:08:05 AM | message detail
What % would snake get in this poll if he took epona's place?
#472 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 3:24:26 AM | message detail
So I just woke up.It seems Protoman fought and we managed to have the 2nd closest match.Just a few more votes and he could do that.
For this match...Need I say Nintendofaqs?A HORSE is beating Mordin and Niko.In how many gaming sites you can see that?
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#473 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 3:25:24 AM | message detail
Division 3! it's gonna be really interesting how these stats will compare to the X-stats eventually.

Sephiroth - 3.17¢
Midna - 1.36¢
Little Mac - 1.00¢

Morrigan Aensland - 2.04¢
Miles Edgeworth - 1.19¢
Agent 47 - 1.00¢

Spyro the Dragon - 4.31¢
Clementine - 2.27¢
Reyn - 1.00¢

Luigi - 5.29¢
Balthier Bunansa - 1.88¢
Jade - 1.00¢

Big Boss - 6.46¢
Peacock - 1.00¢
Captain Viridian - 1.16¢

CATS - 1.00¢
Ness - 2.22¢
Locke Cole - 1.50¢

Elizabeth - 1.63¢
Poison - 1.30¢
Thrall - 1.00¢

Kirby - 2.73¢
Terra Branford - 2.14¢
Princess Peach - 1.00¢

Wheatley - 1.78¢
Crash Bandicoot - 2.06¢
Tommy Vercetti - 1.00¢
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#474 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/25/2013 3:35:58 AM | message detail
*wakes up, checks contest site for trends*

hahahahahahahahahahahaha
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#475 | Whupassman | Posted 7/25/2013 3:40:50 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So I just woke up.It seems Protoman fought and we managed to have the 2nd closest match.Just a few more votes and he could do that.
For this match...Need I say Nintendofaqs?A HORSE is beating Mordin and Niko.In how many gaming sites you can see that?


Listen, if hands and tetris pieces can get victories, then Horses surely can?

*Is no longer surprised*
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#476 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 4:24:54 AM | message detail
Hey PJBasis it would be cool to adjust Chesters based on real Chester.So for example the loser on the battle would worth more than1 Chester.I know it is tough to do it though.
SBAllen is on the leaderboard.I officialy fail.
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#477 | RPGlord95 | Posted 7/25/2013 4:31:28 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Hey PJBasis it would be cool to adjust Chesters based on real Chester.So for example the loser on the battle would worth more than1 Chester.I know it is tough to do it though.
SBAllen is on the leaderboard.I officialy fail.


Can't do that until the contest is over
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#478 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 4:31:51 AM | message detail
It'll adjust itself as more characters interact in later rounds.

We don't adjust the temporary Xstat just because we know the characters aren't as strong as Link right?
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#479 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 4:32:10 AM | message detail
#480 | special_sauce | Posted 7/25/2013 5:46:31 AM | message detail
According to 2010 x-stats, Epona should get ~66.3% on GlaDOS 1v1

Is Ike big enough of a factor to change that?
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#481 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 7/25/2013 5:48:24 AM | message detail
From: -hotdogturtle-- | #443
Omg for a bonus match can we please have Cloud vs. Link vs. http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/599.shtml ?

Bump
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#482 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 5:48:48 AM | message detail
There will be 2 Nintendo characters in there,so Glados can win.But I doubt it.Horse baby!
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#483 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/25/2013 6:14:09 AM | message detail
special_sauce posted...
According to 2010 x-stats, Epona should get ~66.3% on GlaDOS 1v1

Is Ike big enough of a factor to change that?


But you used Niko to calculate that, right? Niko has dropped like a stone since then. Epona will be weaker. Honestly, I can't see Epona being stronger than Ike. I really can't.
#484 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 6:15:30 AM | message detail
Wowza, Proto Man came dangerously close to overrtaking Ike
#485 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 6:17:08 AM | message detail
Can we all agree that Niko is absolute garbage and should never be allowed in a Character Battle? dudes done nothing but job himself out everytime he's in
#486 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/25/2013 6:18:01 AM | message detail
He will be replaced by GTA5 protagonists next time anyway.

Time to guess which GTA5 protagonist will be the most popular
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#487 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/25/2013 6:20:46 AM | message detail
Honestly, the best way to calculate Epona, in my opinion, would be to assume that Mordin is worth the same as Garrus (I know he's not, but they're probably not too far apart indirectly and it will give us a good upper bound). Then calculate Garrus through Sub-Zero, because Subby is probably pretty static since 2010 and we got a pretty accurate reading of him that year.

Also, when looking at GlaDOS's 2010 stats you have to keep in mind the absolute SFF beatdown that Link handed Sonic.
#488 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:23:30 AM | message detail
This site just hates anything GTA right now. After 5 comes out GTA will be back
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#489 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/25/2013 6:28:13 AM | message detail
On second thought, that would be a terrible assumption. Yes, it would definitely be an upper bound, but that would also mean that Epona is a good deal stronger than Sub-Zero (I was thinking complicated and I forgot simple issues). There's no way that's true. But if we can find a good Garrus-to-Mordin ratio then we can calculate.
#490 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 6:30:41 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
He will be replaced by GTA5 protagonists next time anyway.

Time to guess which GTA5 protagonist will be the most popular


I know which one won't be!
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#491 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:32:39 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
He will be replaced by GTA5 protagonists next time anyway.

Time to guess which GTA5 protagonist will be the most popular


I know which one won't be!


RacistFAQs
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#492 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/25/2013 6:34:39 AM | message detail
Where would Epona be if we assume Garrus gets 60-40 on Mordin? That feels like a realistic number.
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Bracket score: 30 / Expert score: 156
#493 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/25/2013 6:35:21 AM | message detail
Getting on a plane now and won't arrive until after noon, so my Expert pick is locked in. I hope I stuck with the right choice in the end. (Ratchet>Altair).
#494 | pjbasis | Posted 7/25/2013 6:36:49 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I hope I stuck with the right choice in the end. (Ratchet>Altair).


whoops
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#495 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:45:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
Garrus = Mordin gives Epona her highest value and Wheatley is likely GlaDOS's lowest value. Using 2008 Crash (2010 is not adjusted plus he went up against Samus) Best of Epona is expected to get 69.33% against Worst of GlaDOS

Quite the gap, but Garrus should be stronger while Wheatley should be weaker plus Ike will be in the poll.


Where would Epona be if we assume Garrus gets 60-40 on Mordin? That feels like a realistic number.

61.66%
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Points: 27/32 Today's Picks: Epona and Altair
#496 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:46:42 AM | message detail
If Epona wins the next match this contest has lost all credibility.
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#497 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/25/2013 6:47:43 AM | message detail
She won't, there's a GlaDos in the way
#498 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/25/2013 6:48:51 AM | message detail
GlaDos better not lose to a horse
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#499 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 6:49:03 AM | message detail
*whinnies*
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#500 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/25/2013 6:49:10 AM | message detail
*whinnies again*
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....