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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1076
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ZFS posted... I chose DK over Lightning! DK boost yessir. Eh, I think that's a bit overstated. Lightning will do fine. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
I
don't think so. Lightning's not going to do great by any real metric.
The dislike for FFXIII and Lightning isn't really overstated, it's just
kinda what it is. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
I would take DK if not for Falco. Still rooting for the guy because seriously, screw Lightning and her games. Also to add to my previous post, Jecht got to round 3. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
I feel like there's less dislike for FFXIII and just tons of 'who cares' Which is probably worse given that she'll be drawing a lot of anti-votes already because Final Fantasy always wins! |
Yeah,
I went back and looked at the bracket again when I saw so many were
giving Lightning a pass to round 2. Didn't realize Falco was the third
character! --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Yeah
it's a shame because the three big unknowns this year are Shepard,
Lightning, and *maybe* Samus, and for the most part their paths are set,
with the only questionable match for the three probably being
Shepard/Aerith unless you think really highly of Lightning. |
Samus? --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
How she'll perform post-Other M, I imagine. Also, Ike finally hit a 1000 vote lead on Robotnik, who then promptly won the next update. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
LeonhartFour posted... creativename posted...Squall's character is pretty much not actually having a character. But...that wasn't even an anti-Squall post...Squall in FF8 is pretty characterless...? It's kind of his thing. Cold/distant/detached. "whatever" Lightning Strikes posted... Also to add to my previous post, Jecht got to round 3. Jecht would beat like 60% of this fodderbracket. In fact, I think that's what I shall refer to it as from now on. The "Fodderbracket". --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I
said *maybe* because that's more of a 'I would potentially consider
entertaining the possibility of Samus having a range beyond 3-6 if you
make a great argument' situation. |
creativename posted... Squall in FF8 is pretty characterless...? No, he's not. Or did you play a version of the game where they didn't show his inner monologue? --- http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/9919/leonhart.png |
It's
the idea that Other M will hurt her. If it did, I doubt it could affect
much because Samus looked really beastly last time. Almost beat Cloud,
led him for hours, would have won a day match and all that. I do doubt
that this would even be the case though, for the same reason that DmC
won't hurt Dante: the only people who care are the ones who will vote
for them anyway. Also, I think the big unknowns are the dozens of never seen before characters. As well as the ones who haven't made a contest in years. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Ah,
yeah, I suppose so. I don't think it'd hurt her too much. Other M got a
lot of hate, but it seems mostly forgettable now, as a game. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
conflating FFXIII dislike with dislike for Lightning = yuck Lightning will do fine. DK wouldn't even beat her one on one. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Lightning Strikes posted... Almost beat Cloud, led him for hours, would have won a day match and all that Samus would not have won a day match. She does not have a strong day vote. --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... creativename posted...Squall in FF8 is pretty characterless...? "I dreamt I was a moron." --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Except if the majority interpret him as that way, no matter what the writing intended, that's how he will be viewed. I liked Squall but I could very easily see how he could be viewed that way and I know several people who do view him that way. --- Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time |
Lightning Strikes posted... Almost beat Cloud, led him for hours, would have won a day match and all that. not even close --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Lightning Strikes posted... It's the idea that Other M will hurt her. If it did, I doubt it could affect much because Samus looked really beastly last time. Almost beat Cloud, led him for hours, would have won a day match and all that. People that actually believe this, huh --- sig |
Oh, I'm aware plenty of people have that opinion! Doesn't mean they're not wrong! --- http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif |
Well
I also meant big unknowns who could actually do some damage. Brand-new
characters have never been worth much before, and no matter how badly
Elizabeth beat up terrible fodder that isn't going to change. |
LeonhartFour posted... Oh, I'm aware plenty of people have that opinion! perception is reality, doesn't really matter for contests |
1337gamerpr0 posted... perception is reality, doesn't really matter for contests get this metaphysical nonsense out of here --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
I dispute this. Perhaps not relative to her power hour, but certainly better than Cloud. Especially when you consider that Cloud only won due to Asia and Europe. Weaken them, increase the influence of 'Murica, and Samus could easily win. Not that that's really what the point of that post was. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Cloud
has a better day vote than a night vote because of the diluted Power
Hour. Samus would not get off to as strong of a start in a day match as
she did in that night match. She wouldn't win. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
The
only FFVII match where night/day would have mattered was
Missingno/Sephiroth. In a day match Missingno's push wouldn't have been
killed off, so even though Sephiroth is stronger during the day,
Missingno would have been way, way stronger. Samus doesn't really have
that luxury. |
Again,
I disagree. Cloud can do better in the day than in the night, but not
against a day focused character, and I don't think Samus would have done
worse. So where would Cloud get the missing Europe/Asia votes then? This argument is so hypothetical it's pointless though. Especially since unless Other M really did hurt Samus, she'd definitely do better on Cloud now, and that we can all agree on. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Samus isn't a day focused character. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
It's
old data, but you can look at the 24 hour match in 2004 where Cloud did
better in the last 12 hours compared to the first 12 hours(even if you
remove the first 2 hours to account for the power hour and initial
anti-voting, Cloud still did worse) --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Yeah I'm going to call BS on that one. It's hard to say because Samus has never had a day match. However, if we go back, Samus usually showed strong trends during the day. We must also take nto account the fact that Samus is very America focused, while Cloud is very Europe/Asia focused. The former is stronger in the day, the latter is stronger at night. I think Samus would do better in a 12 hour day match. You can't truly say because she's never had one, but at least don't act like you know she's weaker in the day because you don't. Edit: I see your 2004 result and raise you Samus/Crono/Vincent/Pikachu, where Samus started strong, weakened until the ASV kicked in and finished better at the 24 hour mark than the 12 hour mark. Her most recent day appearance, with a FF7 character in the poll, another night character, and another day character. So it should balance. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Score-Brackets-% Right 30------7------------100.00 29------63----------96.83 28------215--------96.74 27------428--------96.96 26------658--------92.86 25------1092------89.93 24------1474------89.08 23------1827------88.83 22------1895------87.02 21------1761------86.77 20------1609------83.41 19------1207------79.70 18------867--------76.93 17------630--------72.06 16------444--------65.32 15------311--------64.31 14------246--------60.98 13------165--------59.39 12------107--------56.07 11------70----------51.43 10------57----------47.37 9--------39----------43.59 8--------17----------23.53 7--------16----------56.25 6--------8------------12.50 5--------4------------25.00 4--------3------------0.00 3--------5------------0.00 2--------16----------0.00 1--------7------------0.00 0--------6------------0.00 A pretty easy match that even the middle tiers did well on. We do end up losing two -1 brackets, though. Only 1 person fell off the Top 49. Mark_DeRosa did not have GlaDOS winning the match. --- Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place |
Samus is very balanced across all demographics. She is not like normal Nintendo characters. The issue isn't that Samus is weaker during the day. It's that Cloud will be stronger during the day, Europe or not. You can say "But Cloud loses Europe votes!" It hasn't stopped him (and FFVII in general) from being stronger during the day anyway. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
I
purposely avoided using any 4 way matches because they always have
things to mess with the trends. Especially when SFF is involved(as
Pikachu is present there) --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
FFVII just seems like something that would do better during the day, at least a few years go, anyway. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
FFVII's
night vote is kinda overrated to be honest. It isn't FFX - It doesn't
god-mode overnight then have the worst afternoon vote ever seen this
side of Persona. It has a terrible, disastrous, seriously pathetic and
disgracefully bad Power Hour, then a good night vote and a good day
vote. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
FFVII did better in the day against other night focused characters
but that's it. Also Samus is as Nintendo as they come. Her last day
appearance had her winning the ASV, against FFVII with Pikachu leeching
from her. Crono to balance Vincent as well. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Like,
Snake went even with Cloud through the night vote then got wrecked in
the morning and all throughout the day because MGS is actually heavily
night-oriented with a weak day vote. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
From 2007: Time | Samus | Mega Man | Cloud | Ryu | Demographic | Votes EBV | 33.11% | 20.77% | 33.85% | 12.27% | (0:00-0:05) | 1483 PHV | 29.98% | 21.13% | 37.16% | 11.73% | (0:00-1:00) | 12902 FNV | 28.70% | 18.15% | 40.75% | 12.40% | (1:00-6:00) | 23747 BSV | 31.15% | 17.37% | 40.64% | 10.85% | (6:00-9:00) | 13440 DSV | 28.27% | 17.74% | 42.26% | 11.73% | (9:00-14:30) | 32691 ASV | 28.87% | 18.40% | 41.67% | 11.06% | (14:30-22:00) | 52852 SNV | 25.32% | 19.63% | 42.85% | 12.20% | (22:00-24:00) | 8901 Time | Cloud | Samus | Link | Sephiroth | Demographic | Votes EBV | 23.61% | 23.08% | 41.60% | 11.71% | (0:00-0:05) | 2084 PHV | 26.71% | 20.72% | 39.25% | 13.32% | (0:00-1:00) | 13387 FNV | 29.83% | 17.26% | 37.13% | 15.78% | (1:00-6:00) | 23770 BSV | 27.78% | 16.55% | 39.97% | 15.69% | (6:00-9:00) | 15370 DSV | 28.62% | 16.27% | 39.20% | 15.91% | (9:00-14:30) | 33421 ASV | 28.10% | 16.29% | 39.55% | 16.06% | (14:30-22:00) | 48814 SNV | 30.00% | 14.52% | 38.52% | 16.95% | (22:00-24:00) | 8730 --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Lightning Strikes posted... Her last day appearance had her winning the ASV, against FFVII with Pikachu leeching from her. No, it didn't. Pikachu did by far the best in the ASV in that match. Even better than his Power Hour. The ASV was actually Samus's second worst timeframe, next to the second night vote. It was actually worse than her first night vote. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Europe here,I go to sleep! It's time to shine Protoman!! |
So
Ike and Protoman have gone 50/50 in an hour. What do we know about
Ike's trends and lets say Protoman got the same trends as Mega Man? I
wouldn't be surprised if the lead actually is enough for Ike to win. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Night vote SHOULD favor Protoman. It's just a matter of whether it will favor him by enough. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
Samus's
trends are simple. She starts strong, weakens, then improves with the
ASV. Like most other Nintendo characters. Which would make her day
focused. A statement you have no proof for. Hell, why don't we go back to 2006, where Tifa led her during the night and gained with the second night vote, but was put away by the morning vote and ASV? --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Lightning Strikes posted... She starts strong, weakens, then improves with the ASV. ...Except she doesn't. The trends do not bear this out. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... From 2007: samus looks like a joke character to me tbqh --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
Yes, they do. It is hard to say because it's been so long since we've seen it. At least admit that, and we'll drop it. I'm just sick of people acting like things are fact without proof. (Yes, I am aware I am partially guilty of that as well). It wasn't even an important point, and this argument is going nowhere because there is no decisive evidence. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Lightning Strikes posted... why don't we go back to 2006, where Tifa led her during the night and gained with the second night vote, but was put away by the morning vote and ASV? Samus averaged 51.25% during the ASV and 50.76% during the morning. There was no huge swing in that match. You are assuming Samus has a strong ASV because she's Nintendo. But the data doesn't point to it. --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png |
Protoman
about 400 votes behind. He'll definitely narrow the margin, not sure
it's enough to get the victory. Should be close either way. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Protoman is right now winning in America, Ike and my bracket are so screwed! --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
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