GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1076
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
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Shaped like a horse... yeah you know the rest. --- ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Ike may not even win this match... --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 25/30 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ike |
Protoman > Robotnik > Ike. Seriously Ike is only 600 votes away from getting last against two characters who are 20 years after their prime. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
If
I had to lay odds even if he can't complete the comeback I'd guess
Protoman is naturally stronger than Ike. Robotnik... I don't like saying
is stronger than anybody so I'll take a pass on that for now. --- sig |
That last update was almost a 3-way tie. |
It feels as though Protoman is stronger the laster in the day it gets even though he's be stuck around 33.33%. --- @w@ Gamertag: SliceSabre |
Man the "mostly relevant through Smash" characters aren't doing so well --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
The maps pretty interesting for this match. You've got Ike winning the U.S., Canada and Australia. Then Protoman is winning Mexico and most of South America. And then Robotnik is killing it in Europe. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
Captain Falcon just almost beat Alucard. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
superange128 posted... Man the "mostly relevant through Smash" characters aren't doing so well More like "Fire Emblem characters aren't doing so well." That's about the extent of it. And it shouldn't surprise anyone. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif |
KamikazePotato posted... Captain Falcon just almost beat Alucard. I'd, uh, wait to see how Alucard goes out before making too much out of whatever that might be worth. --- sig |
Come
to think of it, with match winners only getting around 13,000 votes,
couldn't there be a non-negligible chance of some match ending in a tie?
Is there an official method of breaking ties? |
The match just continues until the tie is broken (which would only take an extra few seconds, at best. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg |
Karma Hunter posted... KamikazePotato posted...Captain Falcon just almost beat Alucard. That match lined up with previous results 100%. Either they're all weaker or none of them are. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Olimar, Falcon and Ness looked good. Jigglypuff, Marth and Ike have looked bad. Jigglypuff probably sucks regardless though, so it does seem to be more of a FE thing. --- Demyx is better than Axel. http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom |
KamikazePotato posted... Karma Hunter posted...KamikazePotato posted...Captain Falcon just almost beat Alucard. No way Alucard and Captain Falcon could have both overperformed against Link and Cloud? You know, Tidus/Shadow lined up with previous results 100% too. Sometimes it happens. But if Snake goes Link-crazy on Alucard I won't exactly bat an eye. --- sig |
Everyone 'overperformed' on Link and Cloud. Because Link and Cloud were weaker. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... Everyone 'overperformed' on Link and Cloud. Because Link and Cloud were weaker. Maybe. Looking at Thrall, I'm not so sure that's the full extent. Anti-votes certainly count for far more when you're dealing with weaker characters. --- sig |
That was the first update this match in which the winning character doubled the third-place character, I believe. |
The
last topic had people discussing Mega Man/Samus/Mario as like Mega Man
advancing the match with Zero LFFing him (we know how strong it's going
to be) against Charizard...so..am I wrong for having Charizard winning
that match? |
Yeah, that last update was weird. Ike spiked and Robotnik fell off big time. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Thrall was definitely stronger 3 years ago. He had decent results up to that point. War has changed, Karma. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Nanis23 posted... The last topic had people discussing Mega Man/Samus/Mario as like Mega Man advancing the match with Zero LFFing him (we know how strong it's going to be) against Charizard...so..am I wrong for having Charizard winning that match? Mega Man should be stronger, but... he lost to Cube the last time he had Zero in a match with him. so uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh --- sig |
KamikazePotato posted... Thrall was definitely stronger 3 years ago. He had decent results up to that point. War has changed, Karma. You can't make a blanket assertion that Thrall is weaker since last contest and not allow for the possibility of that with Alucard & Falcon! Well, you can, but I'll complain in a really annoying way about it. --- sig |
Mega Man sucked in 4-ways. Same as Sonic. He kicked ass in 2010 so he should be fine this year. Should. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Everyone is weaker since the last contest except for Commander Shepard and Ezio. Everyone. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
I haven't changed a damn bit! |
Protoman is the master of 33.33% I swear! --- @w@ Gamertag: SliceSabre |
My
instinct is that three-ways aren't radically different from four-ways
(at least in any way we can effectively predict), but more importantly,
that Charizard is far more of a force to be reckoned with than Cube was
then anyway. I'd love to see Pokeymanz put in their place and lose despite having every SFF advantage imaginable, but I can't conceive it. --- sig |
LeonhartFour posted... Everyone is weaker since the last contest except for Commander Shepard and Ezio. Are you sure? I'd take 40% on Pikachu over failing to double Olimar...! |
That was FemShep! It doesn't count! --- "Stay with me until the end. Please." "Not until the end. Always." |
FranzyvonKarma posted... LeonhartFour posted...Everyone is weaker since the last contest except for Commander Shepard and Ezio. He said everyone. --- sig |
Karma Hunter posted... FranzyvonKarma posted...LeonhartFour posted...Everyone is weaker since the last contest except for Commander Shepard and Ezio. Everyone except |
Pretty
sure this is one of the most boring close-ish matches I've ever seen.
maybe I've just gotten unlucky, but on the updates I've seen I don't
think any percent has even shifted by more then like .25%. It's just
been 36-33-30 the entire time. --- This is my signature. |
pyresword posted... Pretty sure this is one of the most boring close-ish matches I've ever seen. maybe I've just gotten unlucky, but on the updates I've seen I don't think any percent has even shifted by more then like .25%. It's just been 36-33-30 the entire time. Nobody's making any major moves, no. It's a big three-way stall fest, mostly. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
LeonhartFour posted... The match just continues until the tie is broken (which would only take an extra few seconds, at best. And then there are riots about Bacon "extending the match so that character could win", a la Mario/Crono 2003. Of course, everyone's hanging on the results that he allows us to see, anyway, so would we even know if a match was tied at the official end time of the match? The thing is, the matches close at 12:00 exactly, when the next match starts, but we don't actually learn the results until a few minutes later. If the match was tied, once the next match starts, how would the old match be "kept open"? Would some servers display the old match? If so, which ones? I've got a good idea of what to do if it happens, though. Something that is perfectly fair and doesn't involve delaying/extending polls. http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_calendar?time=3 See those empty spaces? The one on the 18th stands out, but there's also one on September 1. Rather than starting the second round with a day match, thereby allowing it to end with a day match and putting Round 3 (the start of 24-hour matches) on schedule for starting at midnight, Bacon decided to have a 12-hour break in between Round 1 and Round 2 and another one between Round 2 and Round 3. I say that if a match ends in a tie in one of the first two rounds, there should be a 12-hour 1v1 tiebreaker match after the end of that round to determine who advances. (If two matches in the same round end in ties, then we'd need two six-hour matches--a real crapshoot, of course, but tiebreakers usually are. Continue shortening it as needed--12 hours is a very flexible time period in that as long as the number of tied matches has no prime factors greater than five, you can divide it up evenly. 3 times 4:00, 4 times 3:00, 5 times 2:24, 6 times 2:00, 8 times 1:30, 9 times 1:20, 10 times 1:12, 12 times 1:00, 15 times 0:48, 16 times 0:45...which should be more than we'd ever need.) If a match ends in a tie in Round 3 or later? I guess then you'd have no choice but to extend the poll. But hasn't this always been a possibility? --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
SliceSabre posted... Protoman is the master of 33.33% I swear! Yeah, but that one wasn't exactly 1/3 the vote. He'd need one of Ike's votes switched to him for it to be even. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... And then there are riots about Bacon "extending the match so that character could win", a la Mario/Crono 2003. No, it wouldn't happen. Most people probably wouldn't even notice the match had been extended because it'd be over in an extra couple seconds. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
Yeah consider the final update doesn't show until 12:02 or 12:03 we don't know if the poll lasted 2-3 seconds longer --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 25/30 Today's Picks: GlaDOS and Ike |
The
only way you'd be able to tell is if you were watching your clock
intensely and noticed the poll didn't switch over exactly at 12. And even then, it wouldn't necessarily mean the match was extended because of a tie. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Hey, Leon. Ike (2010c) VS Proto Man (2010c) Ike has a strength of 26.54. Proto Man has a strength of 25.72. Ike wins with 51.54% of the vote! A win of 1,601 with 51,812 total votes cast. Nice adjustment in those stats. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Being from Europe,i'm going to sleep in 1 hour And then...PROTOMAN WILL MAKE A COMEBACK Or I wish |
Someone
needs to fix lol x-stats for our new terrible votals! If Ike could pull
that many votes in a 24-hour match I'd take him to win the contest
easily..! |
Nanis23 posted... The last topic had people discussing Mega Man/Samus/Mario as like Mega Man advancing the match with Zero LFFing him (we know how strong it's going to be) against Charizard...so..am I wrong for having Charizard winning that match? I have Charizard winning. Some have Zelda winning and some have Lightning winning. Zelda and Lightning, probably two of the least attractive female VG characters ever. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Zelda would be 10 times better if she looked like Mileena. |
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What am I reading --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
Feel
free to disregard anything LMS says because he'll say something
different tomorrow when he perceives it's not the majority opinion. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png |
Lightning is amazing looking, holy crap LMS no taste confirmed. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
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