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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1074
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Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Seriously,
we need to start giving Link some heat for his recent performances.
This guy let Thrall do decently on him. He wrecked the SFF matches but
that's just what they are - SFF. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Yeah, remember when Link would break 60% on any non-Cloud/Sephiroth opponent? --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta |
The Mana Sword posted... I think it's definitely far more likely that the entire field has just condensed in strength than to blame every overperformance on anti-votes. In think in some of these more recent battles anti-votes aren't an issue. Its when you get to the Solid Snakes and Clouds is when anti-votes become a massive factor. --- @w@ Gamertag: SliceSabre |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... BlAcK TuRtLe posted...WellThoughtName posted...Blue should be pretty strong. Not quite sure what that whole wall of text was trying to say. Rivalry Rumble numbers are probably the least useful contest stats we have. And Mega Man/Zero have had a clearly demonstrated fanbase overlap based on their 4-way matches. My conjecture about Fox/Wolf not being a blowout style SFF match like Link/Ganondorf is based on the parallels with Mega Man and Zero, where Wolf is seen as the "cooler" of the 2. Usually when you have 2 characters with that relationship in an SFF situation, it is not enough of a blowout to stop a weaker third character from squeaking by. That said, I feel less confident about that than last night's match. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Kain didn't do too bad in his match, I figure Rydia's a bit stronger than that. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
Link
isn't the problem, I think. It is just that everyone is getting closer
together over the years as voter pools shrink and the people get wise to
how this contest works. Still on top is still on top until proven
otherwise. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Achromatic posted... Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. I'm just pointing out that there's no reason to say that Falcon's match validates anything. That's what I was responding to. Based on what we know nothing about Falcon's performance on Rydia was impressive. Sure she could have been SFFd in 2008, but that's more speculative than anything I've said. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
LOLContests posted... Achromatic posted...Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. Not to mention the fact that Rydia suffered from "third character in a close match" syndrome, and likely looks weaker than she actually is. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Uh, I don't think it takes much speculation to infer that Rydia got votes taken away from her by Auron <_</ --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
Link
is Still On Top, but he's looked very beatable. Cloud did well on him
in 2010 despite looking like ass all year. In this year, several other
people - like Snake! - looked just plain better than him in R1. He's not
immortal, just...hard to catch up to. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
LOLContests posted... Achromatic posted...Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. ?????? 44 Alucard 28.21% 28.21% 0.00% 45 Captain Falcon 27.94% 27.94% 0.00% --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... LOLContests posted...Achromatic posted...Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. Close matches are the one time when the third (last) place characters don't underperform! Third place characters don't underperform. Obvious third place characters underperform. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
KamikazePotato posted... LOLContests posted...Achromatic posted...Rydia is a large unknown. In her only match she got held back by Auron SFF. Quick to judgment. Link was getting anti-voted too. Look at Thrall's number! --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
KamikazePotato posted... Link is Still On Top, but he's looked very beatable. Cloud did well on him in 2010 despite looking like ass all year. In this year, several other people - like Snake! - looked just plain better than him in R1. the one time I don't pull the trigger on that stupid upset of course --- sig |
From now on, anytime a character performs in a way that doesn't match up with my preconceptions, I'm blaming anti-votes --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
From: LOLContests | Posted: 7/23/2013 2:44:18 PM | #313 Close matches are the one time when the third (last) place characters don't underperform! Third place characters don't underperform. Obvious third place characters underperform. there was rallying in the match which caused Rydia to drop a bit. different from the "obvious third place" underperformances, and certainly less severe. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
protoman got doubled by zero last time he showed up in the contest |
Before
I forget, I want to thank yoblazer for posting the Tiger Woods GIF.
I've missed that thing. I don't think we ever had a reason to use it for
RR! --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
I don't consider Thrall's numbers indicating anything than antiblowout syndrome, really. Scoring 80 is scoring 80. Also I ran the numbers on the show and Link's %s against that fodder match up with what he did in the four ways against Bidoof. He'll be fine. --- "When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet." |
anondum posted... protoman got doubled by zero last time he showed up in the contest You can argue that was an SFF but then there is that Mega Man vs Zero match in 2004 and I have no idea what to say |
Achromatic posted... Uh, I don't think it takes much speculation to infer that Rydia got votes taken away from her by Auron <_</ And I don't think it takes much speculation to assume that there's anti-votes when there's four characters in 2010 (I'm not even counting Snake now) whose X-stat values* are all higher than their last known values and when the common thread is that they were all up against a character who people are very vocal about anti-voting against. *And this is even true when you take into account that Link's X-Stat Value in 2010 is probably too high. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
'Link'll
be fine' doesn't preclude 'Link's drastically, obviously weaker'. Both
can be (and probably are) obviously true. Link barely scored more on
Alucard than Cloud did on Falcon, and Cloud's *way* weaker than he used
to be. Link is a chump compared to his 2006 high. --- sig |
Or They're weaker --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Does
Mordin have any shot at winning? It saddens me that Mass Effect is
only having one character advance since Wrex is definetly losing to Pit. --- http://i.imgur.com/97Pxu.gif http://i.imgur.com/DOF4PCH.gif |
You can argue that was an SFF but then there is that Mega Man vs Zero match in 2004 and I have no idea what to say SFF works in weird ways, sometimes it happens other times it doesn't, usually a fan favourite is able to resist SFF or a character where the fanbase is divided on who they like. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta |
I know I'm way behind on this one because I'm playing reading catchup on the topic. I don't think a random Colossi would be stronger than Wander by any appreciable amount. Just being a cool-looking monster wouldn't be enough. Plus, nobody knows what their actual names are (if you've played SotC, are you aware that the Colossi actually have names that aren't Colossus #1, 2, 3, etc.? Didn't think so). So unless he just puts "Colossus #5" next to the match pic or something, I don't think it'd matter. It'd just be "random monster" to most people. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
Wander made a cut update before last! Lost it all back quickly, but yep. --- Still smilin' :> |
Mega Man/Zero 2k4 was an aberration. I'd bet any amount of money Mega Man slaughters Zero 1v1 today. --- sig |
Does
Mordin have any shot at winning? It saddens me that Mass Effect is only
having one character advance since Wrex is definetly losing to Pit. Epona could flop, it is just a horse and with Garrus performing well maybe Mordin has a chance. I don't view Epona very highly though so I may be wrong. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta |
Link is weaker, still the best, but weaker. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta |
KamikazePotato posted... Or I have them as weaker. I adjust Link down in the 2010 X-Stats so that I have him at 50 BL and Cloud at 46 BL. That's weaker then they've been in years. And their opponents X-Stats are still too high. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
anondum posted... protoman got doubled by zero last time he showed up in the contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Protoman%27s_Contest_History Ya, by Solid Snake Edit, sorry, missed the Zero. Point still stands. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
Ike/Protoman
is a hard match to decide. To me, it's pretty much how you also look at
the relation between Snake/Mario. Are they equal? Is Mario stronger? If
they are even equal, the stats should say Ike should squeak it out
assuming he suffered even a couple percent of SFF, because that's all
he'd need to place higher than Protoman. Another thing I think people are ignoring when looking at the match is Ike's match with Zidane. We don't know where Zidane is, but we know he at least beat Shadow the Hedgehog. We also know sometime in Ike's history, he could hang with Pikachu... wherever Pikachu was in 2008. I just took Ike because he had more intangibles to work with. --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 |
"Just a horse" I find it hard to see Epona flopping. Everyone who has played OoT loves Epona. Pretty much every game that has her, when you get to the fields, you call her. There really is no reason to actively hate her either. I'd be very, very surprised if she flops. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
MarioSuperstar posted... Ike/Protoman is a hard match to decide. To me, it's pretty much how you also look at the relation between Snake/Mario. Are they equal? Is Mario stronger? If they are even equal, the stats should say Ike should squeak it out assuming he suffered even a couple percent of SFF, because that's all he'd need to place higher than Protoman. I took Ike but I can get behind this win for Protoman is a win for Snake thing --- sig |
Speaking of horses, Agro would easily be the strongest character from SotC. Also, Link gets a free pass on all his poor performances because he wins. Winning solves all problems. Plus, anyone who could potentially be within striking distance is Nintendo except for Snake. So basically, there are only two people who can realistically beat Link right now: Cloud and Snake. That's it. That's the list. Your mileage may vary on the definition of "realistic" for either of those two. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
anondum posted... protoman got doubled by zero last time he showed up in the contest More than a doubling. Zero actually got over 2.5 times the votes Protoman did. Nanis23 posted... anondum posted...protoman got doubled by zero last time he showed up in the contest It was the same SFF. Zero is essentially the X series equivalent to Protoman. When the two met up, Zero SFFed Protoman into the ground. Two rounds later, he met up with Mega Man himself...and again used X > Classic series SFF on Mega Man, but it wasn't enough to overcome the fact that, as the hero, Mega Man was just naturally going to be stronger. Really, that match makes perfect sense if you look at it as Zero SFFing Mega Man instead of Mega Man SFFing Zero. Same goes for Zero weakening Mega Man enough for the Blue Bomber to lose to friggin' Weighted Companion Cube in 2008. Karma Hunter posted... Mega Man/Zero 2k4 was an aberration. I'd bet any amount of money Mega Man slaughters Zero 1v1 today. I wouldn't necessarily call it an "aberration"...but you might be right. My best guess as to why the SFF between Mega Man and Zero would actually point in Zero's direction would be recency--the X series was more recent than the Classic series. The last time they faced each other, Mega Man didn't have MM9 and MM10. Now that Mega's had the more recent game, he might be able to reverse that trend somewhat. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
I've got Ike beating Protoman, but I'd love to see Protoman win it. I think it's possible Protoman's weaker than 2010 though. Mega Man being announced in SSB4 doesn't really extend a boost to the rest of the series, I think, and the series has been pretty much irrelevant since the last contest. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Oh, Card won, good for him. Just like Red did to Falcon, and it really was kinda a VGCW match for Rydia. Looks damn good and kickin ass but loses because no finisher. Also I see N is as weak as Wander and BAY-YO-NEET-TA is almost at 50 --- Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude. SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude |
Also lets go #MASTERPLAN if The Plan worked so well, why can't the #MASTERPLAN --- Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude. SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude |
charmander6000 posted... Does Mordin have any shot at winning? It saddens me that Mass Effect is only having one character advance since Wrex is definetly losing to Pit. Yeah. I think people are overestimating the effect that LoZ association will have on Epona. And you bring up a very good point about Garrus performing well. But then again, there's really no way of knowing how good Epona will be until the match starts. Some people are calling for Epona to combine LoZ's godliness with the appeal of a joke character (because it's a friggin' horse) to get something unstoppable. Others think that it'll only be viewed as a joke character, and the time for joke characters has passed, so Epona will be weak. Both sides are purely speculation, so until the match actually happens, neither opinion can be dismissed. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
LeonhartFour posted... I've got Ike beating Protoman, but I'd love to see Protoman win it. Real talk I'd be absolutely stunned if Protoman could win that though. Ike surely got SFFed to hell against Mario, it's a day match, Protoman has been irrelevant for goodness knows how long, Robotnik shares more in common with Protoman than Ike, I don't even think he'll be able to depend on a pic advantage. --- sig |
And finally, the trend chart from the night match: Time | Alucard | Falcon | Rydia | Votes 0:05 | 34.21% | 38.43% | 27.36% | 497 1:00 | 34.50% | 39.61% | 25.88% | 5521 2:00 | 33.86% | 38.54% | 27.60% | 3145 3:00 | 34.55% | 36.69% | 28.75% | 2292 4:00 | 37.24% | 32.05% | 30.70% | 1850 5:00 | 35.28% | 34.53% | 30.19% | 1590 6:00 | 37.52% | 30.33% | 32.15% | 1434 7:00 | 37.41% | 33.31% | 29.28% | 1561 8:00 | 37.19% | 34.46% | 28.36% | 1869 9:00 | 39.39% | 32.38% | 28.23% | 2097 10:00 | 37.10% | 35.60% | 27.30% | 2264 11:00 | 38.25% | 37.09% | 24.67% | 2416 12:00 | 38.05% | 35.92% | 26.03% | 2163 ALUCARD FEARS NOT THE NIGHT, as his two best hours were the last two of the match. Probably due to rallying because of the match being so close, which also hurt Rydia in the last couple of hours. And yes, you're reading that right. Rydia won an hour over Captain Falcon despite him actually winning the match at the time. Falcon starts off crazy, dies overnight, and recovers late in the morning, but it just wasn't enough. X-Stats: Alucard – 50.00% Captain Falcon – 49.75% Rydia of Mist – 43.30% Alucard's prediction percentage was 51.46% --- http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif |
Shoenin_Kakashi posted... Oh, Card won, good for him. Just like Red did to Falcon, I fail to see how a 1000-vote lead is "almost as weak as". N's getting 58.31% on Wander directly--hardly a blowout, but still a fairly comfortable margin. Rate of Bayonetta's increases has slowed down, though. Looks like those two early 90-vote wins will probably be the best of the match. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
I
don't expect Mordin to do well simply because Garrus did well. I think
Garrus is the exception. I wouldn't expect any of the other squadmates
to be more than MAYBE a low midcarder at best, and regardless of your
expectations of Epona, I'd be pretty surprised if she turned out to be
fodder. Mordin's problem is that he's only playable in one game. Granted, it's probably the strongest game of the three, and he has a really memorable role in ME3 despite not being playable. And ME1 is the weakest, so I don't know if it matters if he's in that one or not. Wait, I'm trying to argue against Mordin here, right? ... ... ... ...I still can't do it. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
I can't believe people think a Mass Effect character is going to beat a character from Ocarina of Time. Guys. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Sorozone posted... "Just a horse" I got an idea If LoZ fans want Link to win so much Maybe we need to tell him Link has won too much and it's time for a new champion..but from the same series!! So Eponda for Character Battle IX champion! |
Denzokuken posted... I can't believe people think a Mass Effect character is going to beat a character from Ocarina of Time. Has to be delusion. I mean I love to hate Mordin, but I cannot possibly see him winning against the people he is paired against, he might have an early surge but that's it. --- @w@ Gamertag: SliceSabre |
Denzokuken posted... I can't believe people think a Mass Effect character is going to beat a character from Ocarina of Time. Who is thinking this? Epona has 87% behind her in the Guru. (I was mostly being facetious in my post a minute ago, by the way) --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
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