Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1074

#1 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/23/2013 8:37:28 AM | message detail
All a part of the Plan.

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me
#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:40:41 AM | message detail
So Alucard is the master of the day now?
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#3 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 8:54:41 AM | message detail
By the way, I have Alucard in everything and was hoping to jinx Falcon this entire time.

It is working well.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#4 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/23/2013 8:54:53 AM | message detail
Half man. Half demon. All-time contest legend. The Stats Topic salutes the Tragic Prince.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHpMdgM0Sb4
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http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#5 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/23/2013 8:54:56 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
Alucard lost in the US, Canada, UK and Australia and still going to win this match


Part of the plan, who needs the anglosphere
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Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#6 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/23/2013 8:54:56 AM | message detail
I am in Tunisia now. No votes from this country were cast, until I did just now. I'll be the Tunisia vote this next week! You can always sew what ctes voted now!
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#7 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/23/2013 8:55:01 AM | message detail
What a crazy match between characters people actually care about!
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#8 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/23/2013 8:55:09 AM | message detail
Everything that happened during the last 12 hours was part of the plan.
#9 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 8:55:12 AM | message detail
When this match started, we were still on topic 1071. Two whole topics devoured by a single 12-hour match.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#10 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/23/2013 8:55:25 AM | message detail
This isn't too surprising. Alucard has always had a strong morning vote while Falcon excels at Power Hour and ASV. I expected it to be more lopsided overnight and more even in the morning.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#11 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:03 AM | message detail
Like to say it was a good match, even if that makes me 0/4 for upset picks
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#12 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:03 AM | message detail
I know that I might regret Bayonetta>N for the whole contest if it ends up wrong
As I have supported N winning from the beginning

4 minutes remain,should I stick to my guts or the board opinion
#13 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:04 AM | message detail
Though I have no faith in N, I'm still picking him to win. Because why the hell not.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#14 | vcharon | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:27 AM | message detail
#15 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:47 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I know that I might regret Bayonetta>N for the whole contest if it ends up wrong
As I have supported N winning from the beginning

4 minutes remain,should I stick to my guts or the board opinion


Always stick to what you believe, you'll always regret following popular opinion when you knew better.
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Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#16 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/23/2013 8:56:52 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
I am in Tunisia now. No votes from this country were cast, until I did just now. I'll be the Tunisia vote this next week! You can always sew what ctes voted now!


Why are you in Tunisia?

Also, there have been other matches this contest with votes from Tunisia, so you aren't going to be the only voter from Tunisia for some of these matches.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#17 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:57:06 AM | message detail
Damn, I'm -5 now. Bayonetta better come through for this next match...
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#18 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:57:14 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Zylothewolf posted...
I just saw this.

Kazakhstan:

Alucard: 0%
Captain Falcon: 0%
Rydia: 100%

GREAT SUCCESS!!!


Those are the same results in Madagascar.

Well now we see why Rydia lost!

http://i.imgur.com/AaYZCs9.gif
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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
http://i.imgur.com/8UgInPO.gif
#19 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 8:57:16 AM | message detail
It is true, I never regret sticking with my gut when I am wrong.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#20 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 8:57:19 AM | message detail
What's sad is that Wander is the only contest veteran in the next match, and we're pretty much 100% certain that his game would wipe the floor with either of his opponents' games in a contest match. And yet, we're all certain that he will be in last place somehow.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#21 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/23/2013 8:57:33 AM | message detail
Curse you Alucard, you have put another stain in my bracket for the another year.
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#22 | pyresword | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:00 AM | message detail
I really hope both Bayonetta and N end up bombing hard and Wander comes out on top.

Now, I don't have that in my bracket and I also hate Wander, but that upset seems so ridiculous I'll be rooting for it if there's even a slight chance.
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This is my signature.
#23 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:34 AM | message detail | (edited)
2 vote cut by Falcon.

We are at 112.

Only 2 minutes left.
#24 | Qwaar | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:34 AM | message detail
I've got Draven and Crash right with the upset picks, but I'm playing it safe and sticking with Bayonetta on this.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#25 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:36 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What's sad is that Wander is the only contest veteran in the next match, and we're pretty much 100% certain that his game would wipe the floor with either of his opponents' games in a contest match. And yet, we're all certain that he will be in last place somehow.


We are? One of these characters is from a Pokémon game.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#26 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:40 AM | message detail
2 minutes 115 vote cut

Mario could do it
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#27 | xp1337 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:43 AM | message detail
Came back just in time to witness the Alucard victory.

Feels good.

Kinda wish I'd been around for the comeback though.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#28 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/23/2013 8:58:48 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Zylothewolf posted...
I just saw this.

Kazakhstan:

Alucard: 0%
Captain Falcon: 0%
Rydia: 100%

GREAT SUCCESS!!!


Those are the same results in Madagascar.

Well now we see why Rydia lost!

http://i.imgur.com/AaYZCs9.gif


We need to get President Madagascar into a contest somehow.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#29 | LionInAComa | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:08 AM | message detail
Kind of an unspectacular finish for an otherwise spectacular match, but I do wonder what's up with Alucard's trends. Maybe he got a huge influx of bracket voting near the end? Especially if people realized it was a close match.
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Surskit
Don't keep the lion in a coma.
#30 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:19 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Came back just in time to witness the Alucard victory.

Feels good.

Kinda wish I'd been around for the comeback though.


No it was painful and I raged hard
#31 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:29 AM | message detail
Also I have Bayonetta but I don't like her at all

Maybe POKEFEAR will come through
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#32 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:44 AM | message detail
Just a reminder that N's name is Gropius.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#33 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:49 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
2 minutes 115 vote cut

Mario could do it


But Mario is a legend, neigh, a GOD.
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#34 | pjbasis | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:50 AM | message detail
Now for Bayonetta to crush
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#35 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:54 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
What's sad is that Wander is the only contest veteran in the next match, and we're pretty much 100% certain that his game would wipe the floor with either of his opponents' games in a contest match. And yet, we're all certain that he will be in last place somehow.


We are? One of these characters is from a Pokémon game.


SOTC finished far above DPP and RSE in the GOTD x-stats, and just a smidge behind GSC. Are we really expecting BW to be on GSC's level?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#36 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/23/2013 8:59:54 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
I am in Tunisia now. No votes from this country were cast, until I did just now. I'll be the Tunisia vote this next week! You can always sew what ctes voted now!


Why are you in Tunisia?

Also, there have been other matches this contest with votes from Tunisia, so you aren't going to be the only voter from Tunisia for some of these matches.


Well, close enough.

Vacation.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#37 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:17 AM | message detail
My god
#38 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Bayonetta
37.5%
9 Votes

N
58.33%
14 Votes
Your Pick

Wander
4.17%
1 Votes
#39 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Bayonetta
34.29%
12 Votes

N
62.86%
22 Votes
Your Pick

Wander
2.86%
1 Votes
Total Votes: 35
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POKEFEAR
#40 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:21 AM | message detail
Bayonetta
29.55%
13 Votes

N
63.64%
28 Votes
Your Pick

Wander
6.82%
3 Votes
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#41 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:26 AM | message detail
Welcome to PokeFAQs


Bayonetta
12.5%
1 Votes

N
87.5%
7 Votes

Wander
0%
0 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#42 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:29 AM | message detail
Bayonetta
0%
0 Votes

N
100%
6 Votes
Your Pick

Wander
0%
0 Votes

Aww yeah, N!
#43 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:33 AM | message detail
Bayonetta
34.48%
10 Votes

N
62.07%
18 Votes

Wander
3.45%
1 Votes
Total Votes: 29
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#44 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:41 AM | message detail
N is off to a blazing start!
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#45 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:43 AM | message detail
N started soo strong but is collapsing
Meh
#46 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:48 AM | message detail
Managed to see N get at least the first five votes.

Mine was the 13th vote, 10th for N.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#47 | SliceSabre | Posted 7/23/2013 9:00:50 AM | message detail
I got N winning in my bracket and I'm sticking to my guns! N STRIKING FIRST BLOOD!!
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#48 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/23/2013 9:01:03 AM | message detail
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAND IT'S OVER

Alucard 50,28%

Captain Falcon 49,72%
#49 | pjbasis | Posted 7/23/2013 9:01:10 AM | message detail
You guys and your pokemon
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#50 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 9:01:16 AM | message detail
Bayonetta already tied it
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta