Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1073

#1 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:45:02 AM | message detail
The morning sun has NOT vanquished the horrible night. (Not yet anyway.)

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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POKEFEAR
#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:46:04 AM | message detail
Pokefear.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#3 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:52:42 AM | message detail
We still have 15 posts remaining. Though it doesn't matter >_>
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#4 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:55:48 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Told you guys.

I mean seriously, this happened at one point.

2013-07-23 06:53:04 - 226 vote lead
2013-07-23 06:57:15 - 209 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:03:04 - 203 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:08:04 - 191 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:12:15 - 174 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:17:15 - 181 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:23:04 - 181 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:28:04 - 191 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:33:04 - 189 vote lead
2013-07-23 07:38:04 - 193 vote lead

And it was the third time that happened in the comeback. And now we're here at a one vote difference.

Stop jumping ship so soon. This is gonna be a while.

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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
#5 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 5:55:52 AM | message detail
It is too late. Falcon is going to be winning by over a hundred votes an hour from now.
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#6 | abdou | Posted 7/23/2013 5:55:54 AM | message detail
Lead
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...
#7 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:56:15 AM | message detail
The sun must be the strong point for Alucard.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#8 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/23/2013 5:56:35 AM | message detail
Falcon still has time
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
#9 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/23/2013 5:57:01 AM | message detail
all according to keikaku*

*(translator note: keikaku means plan)
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#10 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:57:30 AM | message detail
Oh yeah slightly!
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#11 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:57:33 AM | message detail
Falcon swerving all over the track to keep Alucard at bay.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#12 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 5:57:49 AM | message detail
Epic Stall
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POKEFEAR
#13 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/23/2013 5:57:50 AM | message detail
Dat stall.
#14 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:58:07 AM | message detail
oh wait that's still 1 vote

lol me
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#15 | Polycosm | Posted 7/23/2013 5:58:38 AM | message detail
Ha! Alucard hangs on to his 1 vote lead!

Loving this match.
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http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr263/crypto_magnum/Polycosm_sig.jpg
#16 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/23/2013 5:58:40 AM | message detail
We can only hope that Falcon had a disproportionately super strong early vote and this is his true strength - getting schooled by Alucard, even in the daytime. That's the only scenario we Alucard backers can hope for that results in an Alucard victory.
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#17 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:59:09 AM | message detail
I'm surprised at the amount of people that are surprised that this match was close. Do people only think of Falcon's matches against Crono or Fox? I mean 2008 pretty much says Falcon was going to get over 45% on Alucard.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#18 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 5:59:12 AM | message detail
This is the best.

dem ~60 vote stalls
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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
http://i.imgur.com/LC5PEHK.gif
#19 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/23/2013 5:59:35 AM | message detail
What the fffff

Just got here, what is this?
#20 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:00:48 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
I'm surprised at the amount of people that are surprised that this match was close. Do people only think of Falcon's matches against Crono or Fox? I mean 2008 pretty much says Falcon was going to get over 45% on Alucard.

2010 x-stats say that it's a coin flip, even.

http://thengamer.com/xstats/?name1=Captain Falcon&year1=2010c&name2=Alucard&year2=2010c

This is why I keep insisting people have been acting silly all night.
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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
http://i.imgur.com/ajBh1E7.gif
#21 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:01:22 AM | message detail
Characters with god-mode Power Hours usually do not translate the same level of strength into their day votes, but they often improve on their night vote performance.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#22 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:01:40 AM | message detail
We can only hope that Falcon had a disproportionately super strong early vote and this is his true strength - getting schooled by Alucard, even in the daytime. That's the only scenario we Alucard backers can hope for that results in an Alucard victory.

Alucard did better against Falcon in 2008 from now until 12, but that was a school day.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#23 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/23/2013 6:01:46 AM | message detail
General_Zimbad posted...
What the fffff

Just got here, what is this?


You should have seen it earlier when Falcon was leading
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
#24 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 6:02:36 AM | message detail
Like now, for example!
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"When your enemies defy you, you must serve them steel and fire. When they go to their knees, however, you must help them back to their feet."
#25 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:02:38 AM | message detail
dayum
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#26 | Qwaar | Posted 7/23/2013 6:02:55 AM | message detail
Oh god, can't believe this. Come on Alucard!
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#27 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:04 AM | message detail
#28 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:34 AM | message detail
Ooh, they both spiked there. Sign of rallying.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#29 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:34 AM | message detail
Okay Falcon

Now keep it up
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
#30 | KLouD_KoNNeCteD | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:35 AM | message detail
This one is a real nail-biter for me since I picked Alucard to win.
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Mr. No Days Off
http://tinyurl.com/PtP-MillionsOfDollars-PtP
#31 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:40 AM | message detail
What if Alucard's only lead of the match was a 1-vote lead...has that ever happened before?
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POKEFEAR
#32 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/23/2013 6:03:56 AM | message detail
Wow, both of them did really well on that update.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:04:06 AM | message detail
Use the power of the sun
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#34 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:04:48 AM | message detail | (edited)
FIVE VOTES

HE ONLY NEEDED THREE FOR THE LEAD

THREE AIN'T ENOUGH, MAN, I NEED FIVE
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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
http://i.imgur.com/z98XqGJ.gif
#35 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/23/2013 6:04:43 AM | message detail
5 vote barrier installed
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#36 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:04:46 AM | message detail
And fair play to Rydia. 44% on two characters sharing such a close match probably means she'd be very close to their level if they weren't sucking up all the attention and rallying.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#37 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/23/2013 6:05:03 AM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
FIVE VOTES

HE ONLY NEEDED THREE FOR THE LEAD

THREE AIN'T ENOUGH MAN, I NEED FIVE


Falcon is going to pass Rydia around to his homies.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#38 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/23/2013 6:06:21 AM | message detail
What happens if this match ends with a tie?
#39 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 6:06:37 AM | message detail
Prediction: Alucard leads by double digits next update.
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POKEFEAR
#40 | startme_up | Posted 7/23/2013 6:06:38 AM | message detail
Come onnn Alucard, I gotta keep my position on the expert leaderboards.
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3DS FC: 2707-1686-3447
#41 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:06:58 AM | message detail
No one knows other then Bacon.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#42 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/23/2013 6:07:07 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
What happens if this match ends with a tie?


The match won't close on a tie. It will just delay until there's a winner.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#43 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/23/2013 6:07:30 AM | message detail
#44 | spooky96 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:07:30 AM | message detail
1 vote OHHHH
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#45 | tennisboy213 (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/23/2013 6:07:35 AM | message detail
Back to 1
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POKEFEAR
#46 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/23/2013 6:07:39 AM | message detail
lolz
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Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#47 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/23/2013 6:08:25 AM | message detail
Man, it would just be awesome if they kept stalling in single digits for the next three hours.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#48 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:08:55 AM | message detail
If the match ends in a tie, the three of them form a three-man team to bring justice to this contest.

Solid Snake vs Bayonetta vs Captain Falcon/Alucard/Rydia
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Ace Detective in Sir Chris' Police
http://img.imgcake.com/radflanjpgeq.jpg
#49 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/23/2013 6:08:55 AM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
What if Alucard's only lead of the match was a 1-vote lead...has that ever happened before?


No, I think the record is 7 votes.... It was made by Frog but I'm not sure against who (magus???)
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#50 | legendmusketeer | Posted 7/23/2013 6:08:57 AM | message detail
YES!
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LM