Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1072

#301 | Sorozone | Posted 7/23/2013 12:15:07 AM | message detail
His night vote is going to have to be huge, because Falcon will inevitably win the morning vote.
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#302 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:15:31 AM | message detail
70 votes in 30 minutes. Maybe there is a chance here. If he kept that pace up he'd regain the lead in about 3 hours which would give him about one hour of night vote to build the lead

Speaking realistically though this should accelerate as it gets later so he may have enough time to get a decent lead. Is Alucard's night vote really up to its legend?!?! We'll see, tonight!
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#303 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2013 12:16:43 AM | message detail
It was always Alucard's plan to make Falcon suck so much that he'd start dropping below Rydia

Between all the cuts she's pulling on both of 'em, they'd better watch out...!
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#304 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:17:24 AM | message detail
I'd expect him to actually pick up the pace.
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#305 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2013 12:17:56 AM | message detail
By the way, if Cecil is anywhere close to Rydia in strength then I am feeling pretty great about taking Cecil to win in Round 1. Pit would get stomped by Alucard or Falcon.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#306 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/23/2013 12:20:02 AM | message detail
I don't know. Night votals are so low and with votals already being low... I don't think Alucard can do enough before America wakes up again.
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#307 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2013 12:20:35 AM | message detail
Taking Cecil over Pit seemed like a good pick, but then my brain activated and said, "wait, this contest is very possibly the living embodiment of crushing the hopes and dreams of Cecil fans" and then I snapped out of THAT crazy idea hahaha oh man wow
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#308 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:22:39 AM | message detail
Three ways crush the hopes and dreams of Cecil fans

Are you talking about Cecil Rosa Rydia shipping... Cecil Rosa Kain... Cecil Dark Knight Cecil Kain!?!?!
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#309 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 7/23/2013 12:22:39 AM | message detail
The 400-300-200-100 benchmarks will be important here. Alucard has to hit those every 30-45 minutes, one per hour won't be enough.
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#310 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2013 12:24:23 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Three ways crush the hopes and dreams of Cecil fans

Are you talking about Cecil Rosa Rydia shipping... Cecil Rosa Kain... Cecil Dark Knight Cecil Kain!?!?!


I'm not sure what direction this conversation has taken a turn in but I think I am both scared by and kind of like it
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#311 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 7/23/2013 12:26:34 AM | message detail
Right now, 3:30 would be about 45 minutes since Falcon stalled at 500 (assuming alucard cuts 20 over the next two updates). If he cuts 100 every 30 minutes after this, he takes the lead at 5:30. Which is a pretty blistering pace. And even then that's much later than he would've liked.

Now I'm sorry I called it for Falcon. I should've stuck with my original prediction of down-to-the-wire.
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#312 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:26:37 AM | message detail
At the current pace, Alucard takes the lead by 6:10am EST. Probably gives him a realistic 2.5 hrs to really make something happen. It'll be a close one.
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Point Total: 26/26. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Wheatley Day: Snake
#313 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:26:39 AM | message detail
Hold on there that's not where you were going with that? Well... well... thank goodness what kinda weirdo would be into that sorta thing, ya know?
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#314 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 12:27:40 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Surprised so many people thought Alucard would take it so convincingly, or at least weren't expecting Falcon to potentially win. I took Falcon here before looking at previous matches, but didn't Alucard just barely win when Falcon had Diddy Kong in the match with him?


Hate you all so much right now. I wussed out and abstained from expert challenge; would've had a surefire +6. Worse, my Oracle's getting penalized. I thought I swore you guys off after your dumb Jak > Draven pick, but somehow I got suckered back in.
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#315 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 12:28:34 AM | message detail
Tsunami it is your own damn fault that you listened to others too much. I literally never make bracket choices by what this board says.
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#316 | Qwaar | Posted 7/23/2013 12:29:02 AM | message detail
Hope that stall is temporary.
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#317 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 12:34:29 AM | message detail
Rydia and Alucard are are tag teaming to kick Falcon's percentage in the ass.
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#318 | Qwaar | Posted 7/23/2013 12:34:54 AM | message detail
OK, course resumed. Let's see where this goes.
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#319 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:35:02 AM | message detail
Lead at its smallest since before 2:00 AM, but Alucard needs to do better.
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#320 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/23/2013 12:35:47 AM | message detail
At this pace I'd be extremely surprised if Falcon lost.

Too little too late.
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#321 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:35:52 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Three ways crush the hopes and dreams of Cecil fans

Are you talking about Cecil Rosa Rydia shipping... Cecil Rosa Kain... Cecil Dark Knight Cecil Kain!?!?!


Lopen likes his Cecil/Edge stuff I see, kind of an oddball choice but not that crazy
#322 | Sorozone | Posted 7/23/2013 12:36:17 AM | message detail
Yeah, he needs to step his cuts up, a meager 10 to 12 with an occasional stall by Falcon isn't going to do anything.
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#323 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:40:07 AM | message detail
So Falcon won this
This is too slow
#324 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:41:00 AM | message detail
I think I'd ship anything that breaks the Cecil/Rosa relationship, though my favorite is Cecil/Rydia... you know, if I was into that kinda stuff... which I'm not.

Which I'm not.
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#325 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:41:01 AM | message detail
Well the bottom line is that while Alucard is going to win the next 5 hrs, its not going to be enough to hang in there when everyone wakes up tomorrow morning. GG.
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Point Total: 26/26. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Wheatley Day: Snake
#326 | Sorozone | Posted 7/23/2013 12:44:26 AM | message detail
Under 400, but these cuts are just too small.
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#327 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 12:44:34 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
If N wins his first round match Pokemon is going to run over this entire bracket. You can't get many more negatives attached to a Pokemon character than you have with N

- Is a human
- Is from a game late in the series
- Is a pretty polarizing character in his own right
- Arguably not even the most important human character in his game


Yeah, but there's one positive that overwhelms all of that: he's facing two pieces of utter crap fodder. Also,

- Is a pretty polarizing character in his own right


is just something that you guys made up to make you feel better about picking Bayonetta to actually win a match. As wrong as it ended up being, at least in Tharja/Juliet/Tina it was somewhat defensible to go against Nintendo--Borderlands 2 was the Game of the Year in 2012 and probably the most recognizable character was the one with the least natural strength, Juliet.

There's really no defending this one. If you put Bayonetta in Juliet's spot, I doubt the match result changes much at all. Bayonetta would get third in that match, and she's a distant second in this one but at least has the benefit of the awful Wander keeping her out of third.

But make no mistake: She will finish closer to Wander than to N.
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#328 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/23/2013 12:44:38 AM | message detail
fasterrrrrrrrr
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#329 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 12:44:49 AM | message detail
Lol Alucard.

Started your contest career by upsetting a more recognizable character, finished it by being upset by a more recognizable character. Congratulations.
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#330 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 12:45:25 AM | message detail
LMS do you know something we don't about the end of contests?
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#331 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 12:45:47 AM | message detail
WTF Bayonetta should be way stronger than Juliet Starling. I don't see how anyone could argue otherwise.
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#332 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:45:55 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
I think I'd ship anything that breaks the Cecil/Rosa relationship, though my favorite is Cecil/Rydia... you know, if I was into that kinda stuff... which I'm not.

Which I'm not.


Cecil/Sephiroth, would you add that to a crew writeup
#333 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:46:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Man I saw the rallies for N on this board and half the people posting in the topic were posting there to say "lol N"

He's definitely polarizing to an extent
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#334 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/23/2013 12:46:48 AM | message detail
Bayonetta > Wander > N

discuss
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#335 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 12:47:15 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
WTF Bayonetta should be way stronger than Juliet Starling. I don't see how anyone could argue otherwise.


Okay, then offer an argument for it.
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#336 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 12:47:35 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
LMS do you know something we don't about the end of contests?


Somehow I get the feeling that there won't be another character battle anytime soon. At the very least, not one like this.

Also, at the very least Alucard will never be the same. This is by far his most disappointing contest result, ever.
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#337 | Steins_Gate | Posted 7/23/2013 12:48:38 AM | message detail
Bayonetta isn't exactly a powerhouse, but the idea that she's fodder is fairly ridiculous.

Giant Bomb's Best Character of the Year 2010!
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#338 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 12:49:10 AM | message detail
izNotPerfect posted...
Bayonetta > Wander > N

discuss


SpyroN vs. Clemenetta vs. Reynder.

Only Bayonetta's got a lot more ass for N to whip. The more I think about this match, the more I think I'm being stupid by holding N under 50%.
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#339 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/23/2013 12:50:31 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
WTF Bayonetta should be way stronger than Juliet Starling. I don't see how anyone could argue otherwise.


Okay, then offer an argument for it.


Bayonetta is way more popular than Lollipop Chainsaw and was much better-received. And her games are self-titled, and a sequel is coming soon. Her design is a lot less generic as well.

I don't know, someone thinking that Bayonetta is on Juliet's level just took me by surprise. I always took it for granted that she would be way stronger (but still a huge step behind similar characters like Dante, Kratos, and Ryu Hayabusa - probably halfway between Dante and Juliet).
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#340 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/23/2013 12:50:32 AM | message detail
Are you really comparing Bayonetta to Juliet? People actually liked Bayonetta's game (which sold more than twice as many copies as Lollipop Chainsaw), and she actually looks cool as well as hot, and there's a sequel coming up.

Closer to Wander than N? The hell? I mean, I think N pulls this off, but Bayonetta should not be that weak.
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#341 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/23/2013 12:52:02 AM | message detail
Well, I wasn't exactly saying she'd be quite that weak. But, yeah, I think she'd still get 3rd place in that match.
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#342 | Achromatic | Posted 7/23/2013 12:53:05 AM | message detail
Man, Rydia is a beast.
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#343 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/23/2013 12:53:12 AM | message detail
Lopen youre tempting me
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#344 | Steins_Gate | Posted 7/23/2013 12:53:46 AM | message detail
What are you going to do when Bayonetta is getting around 1.5x on N tomorrow, Tsunami?

They way you've discussed this match I can only assume you'll just break.
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#345 | Lopen | Posted 7/23/2013 12:55:11 AM | message detail
~Rydia~ has won an update. Praise be.
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#346 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/23/2013 12:55:50 AM | message detail
Based on these trends, it's not a stretch to assume that Rydia is hurting Alucard a bit more. She's showing just as strong a night vote as he is. Still, Falcon is handicapped with his worst time and Alucard's best, so his win is more than well earned.
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#347 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2013 12:56:33 AM | message detail
Steins_Gate posted...
What are you going to do when Bayonetta is getting around 1.5x on N tomorrow, Tsunami?

They way you've discussed this match I can only assume you'll just break.


He may not break, but *I* will if Bayonetta doesn't have, like, 50+% on those jobbers

I break pretty easily.
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#348 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 7/23/2013 12:56:36 AM | message detail
This night Kicks ass
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#349 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/23/2013 12:56:46 AM | message detail
How high would Rydia go on the FF power ranking? Her performance is pretty good there tbqh.
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#350 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/23/2013 12:59:42 AM | message detail
I'm hoping for 50%, but given this new and improved Captain Falcon, Wander doesn't even seem that bad anymore (he managed 29% on CF in 2010). If Bayonetta does more than double Wander, she'll be strolling pretty close to Falcon's level, and well, something about that doesn't smell right.
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