GameFAQs Contests

Falcon still over 300 votes ahead
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.

The only thing I want now are Rydia cuts, so it gets even more hilarious.
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"A game with amazing story and mediocre gameplay usually beats a game with amazing gameplay and mediocre story." - Vlado, Gaming Expert

It'd probably be around 600-700 votes back then. The vote totals aren't actually that bad. We'd usually get around 120-140k per 24 hours back then now we're getting around 60k per.

60k/2 = 30,000 votes for this match, probably a little more, let's say 32,000

30,000 x .75 (since we're only concerned with Alucard/Falcon's votals) is 24,000.

Rounding up to 25,000 that's one quarter of a 100k votes meaning that 300 votes now is equivalent to 1200 votes for a 100k match, let alone whatever it would be in a 120-140k one.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

This could be real good.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.

You do realize that you're double halving right.

Like a match being 12 hours long doesn't mean you get half vote intake in the opening hours on top of half vote intake overall.

You need to be comparing 60k to 120-140k or comparing 30k to what those matches would get if they ran 12 hours.
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An exact percentage stall. Interesting.
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So yeah I guess the joke is on me for calling this easy Alucard>Falcon match

It just confirms it's impossible to predict matches according to previous results,as 3 years can kill a character

Actually looking at other night matches, the votals aren't anywhere close to 32,000 overall, so even worse for Alucard.

God, at this point I want to lose the bracket points just to score for a victory for logic.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

Falcon continues to break the 300 vote barrier
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.

All my perfect bracket homies: Who else had Alucard winning?
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Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do...

One more 15 vote gain or so. Falcon's exactly half a beast now. Let's see if Alucard can get his ascent started.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

One more 15 vote gain or so. Falcon's exactly half a beast now. Let's see if Alucard can get his ascent started.

umm the percentages are about the same as before. Theres just less votes coming in now.

Damn, this isn't looking good for Alucard. He really needs a a strong night vote to get past Falcon ._.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>

2Dover3D posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

One more 15 vote gain or so. Falcon's exactly half a beast now. Let's see if Alucard can get his ascent started.

umm the percentages are about the same as before. Theres just less votes coming in now.

Percentages are irrelevant. What matters is the lead.

Surprised so many people thought Alucard would take it so convincingly, or at least weren't expecting Falcon to potentially win. I took Falcon here before looking at previous matches, but didn't Alucard just barely win when Falcon had Diddy Kong in the match with him?
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tune in tokyo 142.94

KanzarisKelshen posted...

2Dover3D posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

One more 15 vote gain or so. Falcon's exactly half a beast now. Let's see if Alucard can get his ascent started.

umm the percentages are about the same as before. Theres just less votes coming in now.

Percentages are irrelevant. What matters is the lead.

Yeah, they are. But you're acting like Falcon is somehow getting weaker, when in reality he's doing just as well as before, theres just less votes coming in. A 15 vote gain now is like a 30 vote gain from the power hour.

Nah percentages matter because it's harder to make cuts if you're idling at -5% than if you're idling at -3%.
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I for one can't understand half of this 'mathematics' malarkey that's being thrown around now, so I'll pose a question for those of my similarly challenged brethren - how many cuts are we thinkin' Rydia's gonna pull on either one of these wackadoos?
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Alucard's consistently pulling 100 votes an update now for the last 20 minutes. Falcon's been pulling in ~120 votes per update for the last 3 or 4 updates.

Yeah, I'm gonna say Alucard starts his comeback around 2:00
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Drop it to the floor...

340 lead for Falcon
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.

All this means based on Alucard's performance is that Otacon is gonna beat Magus!
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I'm thinking this match gets 27k-30k.

So with 6000 votes gone, that's slightly upwards of 20% of the votes already cast. Assuming Falcon gets an equal boost in the AM (and it will probably be higher, most certainly higher if it's a close match) from an equal number of votes....

...just how confident are Alucard's supporters in saying he can gain 600 votes in the 15k-18k night vote? That's the equivalent of a 1200 vote swing in a 100k, 24h match (x4 to match votals, divide in half to adjust for length of poll).

I guess if anyone can do it, it would be Alucard. Either way this match is shaping up to be VERY interesting.

And as I speak, Falcon's lead continues to slowly climb.
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Trying to extrapolate how big this lead would be 'really' be in a match with higher votals is very, very silly.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Rad_Dudesman posted...

340 lead for Falcon

we don't actually need a vote lead update every five minutes, if that's cool with you
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Karma Hunter posted...

I for one can't understand half of this 'mathematics' malarkey that's being thrown around now, so I'll pose a question for those of my similarly challenged brethren - how many cuts are we thinkin' Rydia's gonna pull on either one of these wackadoos?

Zero.

And some of the mathematics here are twisted. You can't apply math from 4-way matches to 3-way matches in the first place. It's a different dynamic. A 1-vote lead in a 4-way match is more difficult to surmount than a 1-vote lead in a 3-way match.
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Drop it to the floor...

Rad_Dudesman posted...

Falcon still over 300 votes ahead

It's almost as if these contest noobs can't read.

Alucard won't start consistant cuts until 2:00am. The fact that Falcon has been unable to extend his lead in 40 minutes should be pretty telling.
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I think Alucard has a chance if the lead doesn't get above 500, but probably loses it with the morning vote

If he can stall it at 400 or less then it's a fun match but I think I still lean Falcon slightly.

If he stalls really close to right now I like his chances.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Rad_Dudesman posted...

Falcon still over 300 votes ahead

It's almost as if these contest noobs can't read.

Alucard won't start consistant cuts until 2:00am. The fact that Falcon has been unable to extend his lead in 40 minutes should be pretty telling.

yeah, he only doubled it, what a maroon
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Am I crazy or are the gains slowing down? Sure seems like it to me.

Lopen's right. I am halving twice. I was wrong.

This match definitely wouldn't get 60,000 votes though. 24 hour matches of this caliber in the Rivalry Rumble got numbers in the 40,000s and while summer should help votals out some, it wouldn't be by that much. A Falcon lead of 350 would still get us to ~800 votes or so on a base standard. Not as bad as I thought, but higher I believe than any Night Vote comeback against a non-joke character.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
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Julian_Caesar posted...

I'm thinking this match gets 27k-30k.

So with 6000 votes gone, that's slightly upwards of 20% of the votes already cast. Assuming Falcon gets an equal boost in the AM (and it will probably be higher, most certainly higher if it's a close match) from an equal number of votes....

...just how confident are Alucard's supporters in saying he can gain 600 votes in the 15k-18k night vote? That's the equivalent of a 1200 vote swing in a 100k, 24h match (x4 to match votals, divide in half to adjust for length of poll).

I guess if anyone can do it, it would be Alucard. Either way this match is shaping up to be VERY interesting.

And as I speak, Falcon's lead continues to slowly climb.

Where on earth are you coming up with these numbers? Why would Falcon have a stronger morning than Power Hour? Falcon is more of a Power Hour and ASV guy. He'll gain with the morning, but if he couldn't pass 300 votes in the Power Hour against ALUCARD, there's no way he wins this.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog

Lopen posted...

I think Alucard has a chance if the lead doesn't get above 500, but probably loses it with the morning vote

If he can stall it at 400 or less then it's a fun match but I think I still lean Falcon slightly.

If he stalls really close to right now I like his chances.

The lead has been stuck at 320ish since 12:40. The lead is not getting to 400.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Lopen posted...

I think Alucard has a chance if the lead doesn't get above 500, but probably loses it with the morning vote

If he can stall it at 400 or less then it's a fun match but I think I still lean Falcon slightly.

If he stalls really close to right now I like his chances.

The lead has been stuck at 320ish since 12:40. The lead is not getting to 400.

The lead at 12:40 was 170.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Lopen posted...

I think Alucard has a chance if the lead doesn't get above 500, but probably loses it with the morning vote

If he can stall it at 400 or less then it's a fun match but I think I still lean Falcon slightly.

If he stalls really close to right now I like his chances.

The lead has been stuck at 320ish since 12:40. The lead is not getting to 400.

What? It was 170 at 12:40

There were no matches of this caliber in the Rivalry Rumble because literally no one gave a crap about the Rivalry Rumble.

I do think that matches would probably get a bit less than 60k if ran 24 hours just because of front loaded votes and people double dipping but nothing would dip to 40k bad. I'm sure a lot of people just didn't vote in the rivalry rumble because it was a dumb gimmick
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

The lead has been stuck at 320ish since 12:40. The lead is not getting to 400.

Dude, he doubled the lead since 12:40.
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Drop it to the floor...

So when I said this earlier I was wrong. In order for Alucard to come back he has to start stalling NOW.
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"What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!"
This is Yesmar.

you people can't fool me with math

next thing you'll be telling me Alucard isn't already ahead
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That could explain why Turtle is so adamant about Alucard winning if he thinks he's been stallking for the last 50 minutes.

Going slower...and slower...and slower...getting close to a cut I think.

LOLContests posted...

So when I said this earlier I was wrong. In order for Alucard to come back he has to start stalling NOW.

4 vote gains pretty much count as a stall, I'd say. If this trend continues, Alucard is on pace to start cuttin in three updates or so.

I don't know why I didn't notice the RPG/Sony overlap with Alucard and Rydia. And Falcon being the sole Nintendo character in the match is also a big deal. Feel like I should have saw this coming.
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Yeah, Falcon is slowing down big time. He only gained roughly 50-60 votes on Alucard over the past 30 minutes. Alucard's gonna wake up soon.
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Drop it to the floor...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Julian_Caesar posted...

I'm thinking this match gets 27k-30k.

So with 6000 votes gone, that's slightly upwards of 20% of the votes already cast. Assuming Falcon gets an equal boost in the AM (and it will probably be higher, most certainly higher if it's a close match) from an equal number of votes....

...just how confident are Alucard's supporters in saying he can gain 600 votes in the 15k-18k night vote? That's the equivalent of a 1200 vote swing in a 100k, 24h match (x4 to match votals, divide in half to adjust for length of poll).

I guess if anyone can do it, it would be Alucard. Either way this match is shaping up to be VERY interesting.

And as I speak, Falcon's lead continues to slowly climb.

Where on earth are you coming up with these numbers? Why would Falcon have a stronger morning than Power Hour? Falcon is more of a Power Hour and ASV guy. He'll gain with the morning, but if he couldn't pass 300 votes in the Power Hour against ALUCARD, there's no way he wins this.

Match total--based on night matches in this contest
Votes already gone--self-explanatory
Morning votes cast--also based on looking at previous night matches (had about 6000-7000 votes cast after 9 am)

Yeah, the morning vote for Falcon was a pure guess...but remember that Falcon is the only Nintendo character (or Smash character) in this match. If you don't think that'll have an impact on the morning vote (plus votes for Falcon due to him be behind but close, which is most likely) then you're employing some wishful thinking on Alucard's behalf.

Besides, let's assume Falcon only gets 150 vote boost from the AM (lol). We've now had 7000 votes cast and Falcon is still 350 votes ahead. That's a 500 vote difference, based on votes (7000 now plus 6-7k in the AM) that makes up nearly HALF of the votes.

Again, not saying it's impossible. Just saying that Alucard better start bringing in that night vote sooner rather than later.
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VideoboysaysCube posted...

I don't know why I didn't notice the RPG/Sony overlap with Alucard and Rydia. And Falcon being the sole Nintendo character in the match is also a big deal. Feel like I should have saw this coming.

There isn't any Sony overlap between Alucard and Rydia.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

ZFS posted...

VideoboysaysCube posted...

I don't know why I didn't notice the RPG/Sony overlap with Alucard and Rydia. And Falcon being the sole Nintendo character in the match is also a big deal. Feel like I should have saw this coming.

There isn't any Sony overlap between Alucard and Rydia.

What about the SNES overlap between Falcon and Rydia!?!?!?
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Seriously people need to stop saying this

If Alucard loses it's because he's weaker straight up. Rydia isn't doing anything here.
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This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Rydia does have more reason to overlap with Falcon than Alucard! Really, she's probably not affecting one significantly more than the other.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

Looks like Alucard is getting serious.
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Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004
And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>

Julian_Caesar posted...

Again, not saying it's impossible. Just saying that Alucard better start bringing in that night vote sooner rather than later.

I think your guesses are pretty good, but let me point one thing out: Falcon doesn't have an ace morning vote. I know popular wisdom is 'morning vote is Nintendo's best hour' but that's a lie. The morning vote is the best block of gaming icons who aren't 100% nostalgia fueled (hence why it's the best hour of Sonic and Mario for instance, and not Megaman). Mid-level Nintendo is actually way more ASV focused when it derives its strength from Smash, and kind of all over the place when it doesn't.