Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1072

#1 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/22/2013 9:53:01 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L0pW3Eol6k#at=12
http://i.imgur.com/DDdOEZ1.png

http://i.imgur.com/PxRTF3f.gif
http://i.imgur.com/w9m87QM.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Hyij4G0.gif
http://i.imgur.com/m9aJYgz.gif
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37ER1zpg_F4#t=15s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFtw7qW7Vcw
http://i.imgur.com/8BAynSe.png

Also Lefty wanted boobs:
http://i.imgur.com/86oVNRh.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/NBkIHOI.jpg

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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~Zen
#2 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 7/22/2013 9:09:47 PM | message detail
"It's time to settle this once and for all! My determination is absolute! I will prove the value of my beliefs even if it means my Pokémon friends get hurt! Since you've come this far, I believe you are equally determined. If that's so, prove it to me! Show me the depth of your determination!"
#3 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 7/22/2013 9:10:12 PM | message detail
no comment
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JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.
#4 | pjbasis | Posted 7/22/2013 9:18:20 PM | message detail
All part of The Plan
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#5 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 9:19:26 PM | message detail
aw yeah opening post
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#6 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/22/2013 9:19:50 PM | message detail
rydia splitting the sexy vote with alucard imho
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
#7 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:19:55 PM | message detail
go Falcon
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Character Battle IX: 25/28 points, Next matches: Captain Falcon, Bayonetta
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#8 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/22/2013 9:20:14 PM | message detail
I'll just be stupid and say that if Alucard keeps gaining percentage, eventually the gap will start closing too.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#9 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/22/2013 9:20:57 PM | message detail
To reiterate:

BlAcK TuRtLePosted 7/23/2013 12:15:55 AMmessage detail

I'm ready to call this for Alucard. If it's this close during the power hour, Falcon is in for a world of hurting once the kiddies go to bed.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#10 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:21:02 PM | message detail
Right now Rydia has 42.30% on Alucard.

If she finishes above 41.48% she'll manage to outdo Magus, which means Cecil beats Crono or something, right?
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#11 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2013 9:21:22 PM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
I'll just be stupid and say that if Alucard keeps gaining percentage, eventually the gap will start closing too.


ah, the ol' Kay Aitch gambit, it has served me well with false hope over the years
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#12 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:21:23 PM | message detail
dethfdddddh posted...
rydia splitting the sexy vote with alucard imho


impossible, considering falcon has 100% of it
#13 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/22/2013 9:21:57 PM | message detail
Are people really going to act like there being only 1 nintendo character in this poll doesn't make a huge difference? It's been proven time and time again they do.
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nt
#14 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/22/2013 9:22:09 PM | message detail
Falcon has metal nipples.

Can't get sexier than that.
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"A game with amazing story and mediocre gameplay usually beats a game with amazing gameplay and mediocre story." - Vlado, Gaming Expert
#15 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:22:28 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
To reiterate:

BlAcK TuRtLePosted 7/23/2013 12:15:55 AMmessage detail

I'm ready to call this for Alucard. If it's this close during the power hour, Falcon is in for a world of hurting once the kiddies go to bed.


VOUCH. If these trends hold (or worse, they buck in Alucard's favor) Falcon is finished. Alucard is gonna destroy the night vote, he should have a 1000 or 800 vote barrier set up for the final hours at the least.
#16 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:22:43 PM | message detail
Alucard may have the night, but Falcon still has the morning.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#17 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:22:50 PM | message detail
YES! That's it! Hold 'im steady, Alucard. Hold him steady!
#18 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/22/2013 9:23:12 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
dethfdddddh posted...
rydia splitting the sexy vote with alucard imho


impossible, considering falcon has 100% of it


look apparently we can invent fanbase splits now and I say falcon isn't part of the sexy club
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
#19 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 7/22/2013 9:23:25 PM | message detail
All this night and day sounds like a vampire story.
#20 | SebVettel | Posted 7/22/2013 9:23:37 PM | message detail
WellThoughtName posted...
Falcon has metal nipples.

Can't get sexier than that.


GOLD nipples, no less!
#21 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/22/2013 9:23:47 PM | message detail
#22 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/22/2013 9:24:11 PM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
Are people really going to act like there being only 1 nintendo character in this poll doesn't make a huge difference? It's been proven time and time again they do.


How is Rydia not Nintendo?
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#23 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:24:23 PM | message detail
Alucard has to have a REALLY good night vote to cushion him against a possible morning comeback here. Does he really have that good a night vote?
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Drop it to the floor...
#24 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/22/2013 9:24:30 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
I'll just be stupid and say that if Alucard keeps gaining percentage, eventually the gap will start closing too.


ah, the ol' Kay Aitch gambit, it has served me well with false hope over the years


Me too. It's great right?
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#25 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/22/2013 9:25:06 PM | message detail
Falcon's morning vote is not as good as his ASV. At least with the morning vote, Europe is still voting in huge numbers and Smash is very weak in Europe.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#26 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/22/2013 9:25:43 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
SnoicFactor posted...
Are people really going to act like there being only 1 nintendo character in this poll doesn't make a huge difference? It's been proven time and time again they do.


How is Rydia not Nintendo?


Alucard was playable in Dawn of Sorrow. He's clearly Nintendo as well, making this a three way Nintendo split.
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
#27 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:06 PM | message detail
DSRKVRTheDealer posted...
All this night and day sounds like a vampire story.


Alucard famously dies with the morning vote, so yeah, it fits quite fine. C'MON VAMPIRE SAVIOR!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mUdYdDNBq0

Playing this all night long if need be. C'mon Alucard! DO IT!
#28 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:12 PM | message detail
Falcon's lead is getting bigger
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The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
#29 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:20 PM | message detail
damn you NintendoFAQs
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sig
#30 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:24 PM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
Are people really going to act like there being only 1 nintendo character in this poll doesn't make a huge difference? It's been proven time and time again they do.


Just being Nintendo isn't going to help anyone. Falcon is doing well because he is a huge Smash fan favorite with awesome appeal. It's part of his intrinsic strength. You want a character indicative of just being Nintendo and Smash, we saw Jigglypuff in Division 1.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#31 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:50 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Alucard has to have a REALLY good night vote to cushion him against a possible morning comeback here. Does he really have that good a night vote?


Yes. He does. He's a children of the night and the vote patterns match that.
#32 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/22/2013 9:26:57 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Alucard has to have a REALLY good night vote to cushion him against a possible morning comeback here. Does he really have that good a night vote?


He has a good night vote, but I think its going to be more of a stall or minor vote gains than anything.
#33 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:09 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
SnoicFactor posted...
Are people really going to act like there being only 1 nintendo character in this poll doesn't make a huge difference? It's been proven time and time again they do.


How is Rydia not Nintendo?


She's square. That makes a big difference in this poll. .Nintendo has a more consistent voting fanbase. Add square, and it'll drain Alucard more.
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nt
#34 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:10 PM | message detail
Falcon always had a very big chance to beat Alucard. They're literally next to each other in the 2010 stats. Anyone surprised by this hasn't been paying attention!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#35 | ZFS | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:10 PM | message detail
Falcon yessir
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#36 | kinsho3 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:13 PM | message detail
I'd love to see Alucard win this, just to give this night/day thing some credit for actually deciding a match here for once....
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Drop it to the floor...
#37 | Kibago | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:23 PM | message detail
i'd love a way to know 'how' Nintendo the old-school FFs are.

is terra more nintendo than sonic
these are the questions that keep us awake
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#38 | ZenOfThunder (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/22/2013 9:27:34 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/DDdOEZ1.png

it's a good night
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~Zen
#39 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:28:07 PM | message detail
Falcon's morning vote is not as good as his ASV. At least with the morning vote, Europe is still voting in huge numbers and Smash is very weak in Europe.

No ASV so some of those people will vote in the morning
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 24/28 Today's Picks: Falcon and Bayonetta
#40 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:28:09 PM | message detail
Consistent gains, but bad gains considering there are just thirty-five minutes left before Falcon's lifeline runs out. 15 votes an update ain't gonna cut it here!
#41 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/22/2013 9:28:13 PM | message detail
Rydia probably has enough overlap with both to be hurting them more than an average character would.

But I doubt she's impacting one more than the other.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#42 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 7/22/2013 9:28:46 PM | message detail
kinsho3 posted...
Alucard has to have a REALLY good night vote to cushion him against a possible morning comeback here. Does he really have that good a night vote?


AFAIK, yeah he really does.

That said, as others have pointed out, Falcon is the lone Nintendo character, which gives him a huge boost now and in the morning. This could end up being a VERY interesting match if Falcon builds a big enough lead now to keep it within 500 going into the last few hours.
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Every day the rest of your life is changed forever.
#43 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/22/2013 9:28:49 PM | message detail
Rydia is gonna win.

Just you wait.
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"A game with amazing story and mediocre gameplay usually beats a game with amazing gameplay and mediocre story." - Vlado, Gaming Expert
#44 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:29:27 PM | message detail
Rydia making me feel good about Cecil > Pit and Wrex!
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#45 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2013 9:29:54 PM | message detail
How come no one is considering the truly horrifying possibility borne out from this match?

what if every single character is Nintendo
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#46 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 9:30:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
How come no one is considering the truly horrifying possibility borne out from this match?

what if every single character is Nintendo


rSFF confirmed at last!
#47 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/22/2013 9:30:58 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
How come no one is considering the truly horrifying possibility borne out from this match?

what if every single character is Nintendo


We'll find out in the Link/SnakeorEpona/Mario finals!
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#48 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/22/2013 9:31:14 PM | message detail
This is still NPH, pretty much Falcon's best hour in the match so I'm not worrying too much. Alucard'll win, it's all part of the plan.
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Zinsanity of the Helix Board
#49 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/22/2013 9:31:43 PM | message detail
With all the talk of Card's night vote, it would be pretty funny if he does nothing with it and the match remains like this the entire time.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#50 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2013 9:31:50 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Falcon always had a very big chance to beat Alucard. They're literally next to each other in the 2010 stats. Anyone surprised by this hasn't been paying attention!


Same here, I picked Falcon because I figured Nintendo today is stronger than Castlevania which has been slipping for a while which would boost Falcon from 2010 to give him the edge. Though I shouldn't say I have been always correct when it comes to stats; I argued Morrigan 2002 was a anomaly and Crash Bandicoot was fodder and wondered why everyone was hot on them.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.