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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1071
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KamikazePotato posted... Kotetsu534 posted...I think Thrall turning out to be worthless shows that getting 20% on Link is simply not that hard anymore thanks to heavy anti-voting. Probably means Alucard overperformed in 2010 too, hmm... He did lose a 2000 vote lead to Sandbag. So he was kind of a turd before 2010! --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
It'll be proven Snake relies on Brawl when he gets SFFed into oblivion by Epona during the sprite round..! |
Mega
Man and Sonic have far more tie to Nintendo than Snake does, they have
almost since the contests started but certainly in more recent times.
Not gonna but Snake is 'part Nintendo,' and will lose a nice chunk of
his strength when you stick any notable Nintendo character in a match.
Nothing to really suggest that's the case, minus one match like KH
mentioned. Maybe back in 08, when all that was fresh and big, but now?
Nah. If he does get Nintendo strength, the converts aren't gonna go the
other way, anyway. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Sonic basically is Nintendo at this point more or less --- Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude. SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude |
ChenKenichiFan posted... ZFS posted...The idea that Snake still has any of that 'Brawl' power left, and somehow has a big chunk of his strength today owed to Nintendo, is pretty crazy. I agree with you. Here's what I'd postulate: those new fans aren't going to completely fold on him. Even with the 2k6 Samus match, Snake probably increased +3% on her based on the Brawl trailer. That implies that, yes, there was a Nintendo fanbase that was locked off to him before SSBB. But with merely the exposure that trailer granted, thousands not only proved willing to vote for Snake, but to switch their votes from Samus to Snake. I think it makes sense. Even when you see characters who would be complete nobodies without SSB like Ness and Lucas go up against major Nintendo SFF, they still get a chunk of votes - certainly more than Earthbound and game that doesn't even exist in America are worth. And I don't think there's much dispute that Snake is way cooler in SSBB than Ness and Lucas (cue backlash). --- sig |
No backlash from me! Snake is the best thing about Brawl. Honestly, I'm not sure if we should be extrapolating so much based off a R1 match like this. Snake's doing marginally expected against an Isaac who has gotten a new game since then - is it because that new game was a perceived disappointment or because Snake has just generally increased in strength since then and is about to go on a rampage? Who the heck knows. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
With all this talk about N-Bayonneta I thought it's the next match Too bad next match is boring Alucard>Falcon>Rydia |
Nanis23 posted... With all this talk about N-Bayonneta I thought it's the next match inb4 Falcon somehow wins |
1337gamerpr0 posted... Nanis23 posted...With all this talk about N-Bayonneta I thought it's the next match Leaderboard here I come again --- sig |
Well
they were statistically close in 2010 and Falcon seems like he'd be
more comparatively relevant since then. I wonder how long Alucard can
hold onto his popularity from one game. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
I
could definitely see Falcon winning that, as the lone Nintendo choice.
I'm more worried about Falcon > Alucard than I am about N >
Bayonetta. --- Bracket score: 25 / Expert score: 126 |
Alucard has had appearances since Symphony of the Night, not big ones though. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 23/26 Today's Picks: Vercetti and Solid Snake |
Karma Hunter posted... ChenKenichiFan posted...Not as big as Brawl for Snake. The Brawl trailer lit up the internet. You don't get exposure like that often. I disagree...MGS4 definitely mattered, but Snake boosted a lot from Brawl too. That's why I just can't see him beating Link in a Link/Mario/Snake final...both Link and Mario are higher on the Nintendo hierarchy than Snake. Plus, Mario is likely to be last place factor'd and SFFed to death by Link. I don't see Snake as the guy to benefit from Link/Mario LFF, because a substantial portion of the "steroid Snake" strength depends on Nintendo. Against Link, that will vanish almost completely. You can't just discount that. Without the Nintendo support, no way does Snake beat Cloud. But right now he very well could be stronger than Cloud 1v1. Cloud is the ony character I can see actually exploiting Link/Mario LFF to win. Even then though, I wouldn't like his chances, and Cloud is an underdog to make the finals anyway. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
N
is going to bomb so badly. People talking about that match instead of
Alucard/Falcon looking ridiculously close in strength surprises me. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I agree, I think it is because this is a night match. Falcon only gained 1% on Alucard (head to head result) in the second half of both of their matches. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 23/26 Today's Picks: Vercetti and Solid Snake |
I remember checking if this was a day or night match before picking Alucard in my bracket. I would have went with Falcon if it was a day match --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
That's why I just can't see him beating Link in a Link/Mario/Snake final...both Link and Mario are higher on the Nintendo hierarchy than Snake. Exactly my thoughts when I was finished filling out my bracket. Had Link for days, changed to Cloud on the last day thinking.....maybe Cloud. But yeah, I don't trust Cloud that much, I think it is safe to say one less bracket. I mean even if Mario can leech away 10% votes of Link, Cloud can sneak in, but that seems too much. --- Pokemon Showdown Peak Ranking OU: 2004 And then lost 7 matches in a row >_> |
Edit: Oops. Wrong topic. --- "What's the matter with bootblacking? We both like it very much!" This is Yesmar. |
Ultimaphazon posted... I could definitely see Falcon winning that, as the lone Nintendo choice. I'm more worried about Falcon > Alucard than I am about N > Bayonetta. Rydia could potentially hurt Alucard too, though for some reason I feel that she will hurt Falcon more. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
Does
Rydia have any chance at second place, btw? I have a feeling that all
die hard FF fans and RPG fans are going to vote for her... |
I agree completely with creativename's take on things. Snake is the favorite to make the finals because he should
beat Cloud in a Pikachu-less match, but Cloud has the more realistic
shot at actually taking advantage of the Link/Mario situation and
winning. It'll probably end up moot anyway with what Link will do to
Mario in the finals. I could see the plumber at like 13% and not blink
twice. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
I
don't see any conclusive evidence for Snake being hurt by Nintendo
though. His number on Samus in 2006 lines up with what Samus got on
Sonic in 2004, and only looks suspicious due to how Snake was tearing up
the male bracket while Samus was consistently underperforming - the
latter possibly due to obvious winner anti-voting. In 2008 he was able
to beat an LFFd Cloud despite Kirby being in the poll, and was able to
not only beat a less LFFd Cloud next round when LINK was in the poll,
but was also in first place for the first six hours of the match! Over
LINK, may you be reminded. And Snake just sounds like the perfect character to take advantage of Nintendo's ineptitude now, seeing how his series has just had a new game announced to excite people while Nintendo's not doing much of the sort. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
LinkMarioSamus posted... I don't see any conclusive evidence for Snake being hurt by Nintendo though. His number on Samus in 2006 lines up with what Samus got on Sonic in 2004, and only looks suspicious due to how Snake was tearing up the male bracket while Samus was consistently underperforming - the latter possibly due to obvious winner anti-voting. In 2008 he was able to beat an LFFd Cloud despite Kirby being in the poll, and was able to not only beat a less LFFd Cloud next round when LINK was in the poll, but was also in first place for the first six hours of the match! Over LINK, may you be reminded. Who are you and what did you do to his account? This can't be LMS man. --- Zinsanity of the Helix Board |
Nanis23 posted... With all this talk about N-Bayonneta I thought it's the next match Was about to say "that's because it's the next debatable match" until I noticed what the "boring" match you mentioned was. That's not a boring match at all, and is actually quite debatable. Alucard is a character who was a very respectable midcarder in the first few contests and has declined in strength to the point of being probably a low midcarder. Falcon's first few contests made him look like fodder, but he's gotten stronger and/or his early results were misleading (his first two appearances did feature a first-round matchup with a Noble Niner and a fourway against two other true Nintendo characters and a third-party character whose noteworthy games were all on the N64), and he looks like...a low midcarder! So I think this is debatable, and I've got Falcon > Alucard. Let's take a look. Oh, well that's convenient. Captain Falcon and Alucard actually shared a fourway twice in 2008. Falcon managed 44.44% on Alucard directly while being leeched by Diddy Kong in Round 1 and then 39.66% on him directly in Round 2 while being SFFed by Pikachu--and remember, Falcon is probably more reliant on Smash for his strength than a lot of other Smash characters, so Nintendo SFF is dangerous for him. (See also: Fox > Wario > Falcon > Banjo 2007.) Finally freed of Nintendo SFF in 4ways, what did he do in 2010? Crushed Wander (I guess you could call it a "disappointment" because he came up a little short of the 5:2 beatdown), upset Riku (or was it an upset? 46.68% prediction percentage on a Round 2 match very well could've been the favorite. The Oracle certainly seemed to think it was an upset, though), and broke 30% against Cloud Strife--more than 4% better than he'd done against Crono five years earlier. So am I saying "no way Alucard wins; Falcon's got this"? Nope. But I don't think this is going to be a "boring" match at all. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Personally
I just think most of us can't stomach the thought of Alucard losing in
R1 while he has a seeding advantage. Alucard has only one R1 loss, and
it was in the 2006 contest where the female/male split caused a lot of
strong characters to be screwed over - see also: Ganondorf and Zero. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
ZeldaTPLink posted... Does Rydia have any chance at second place, btw? I have a feeling that all die hard FF fans and RPG fans are going to vote for her... A few days ago I'd have said no. After seeing what Locke and Terra did? It's certainly possible. Yeah, Rydia's FFIV, not FFVI, but I can't imagine that there'd be that big a difference in their receptions. And this is a night match, no less. As we all remember from Draven vs. Chie vs. Jak, Eurasia has somewhat of a larger role in the outcome of night matches than they do in day matches. (USA actually failed to match the overall outcome again in Wheatley/Crash/Tommy, but it was incredibly close so it's easy to see how Wheatley could "take" the American vote and still lose that badly.) And Eurasia is apparently crazy about Final Fantasy VI. If that extends to other Old Square games like Final Fantasy IV...I think maybe it's safest to completely abstain from this match in the Expert Challenge. The only thing that would surprise me about this match would be if one of the entrants was held under 25%. I think a Rydia win is highly unlikely, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. Yes, win. Although Alucard might limit Rydia's old-school appeal somewhat...I don't know. My gut says Falcon > Alucard > Rydia, but there's no order that would really shock me. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
KanzarisKelshen posted... pjbasis posted...I would not be surprised to see Isaac threatening 30% depending on how bad Keen is. pjbasis posted... Maybe some people would but they'd be wrong. Quoting this because it became unintentionally funny now that we know the truth. I shoulda gone into the Oracle for a change, this year's my year! |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...Does Rydia have any chance at second place, btw? I have a feeling that all die hard FF fans and RPG fans are going to vote for her... And I'll stay away from this thing in the spread betting contest. Neither of the 3 characters have managed me to convince they should be bet for/against. |
Allen going to vote stuff for Rydia. --- Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... Nanis23 posted...With all this talk about N-Bayonneta I thought it's the next match Must say I love how in-depth your posts are Well,I thought it was pretty obvious duo to how many people are saying Alucard got this 37 out of 247 gurus picked Falcon,206 picked Alucard This poll,too http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66796056 And the spread betting topic has Alucard with 40%,Falcon 35% While user statistics might not be good like previous contest stats,I do believe that looking at people predication can help to know how a match turns out (and this is how I went as high as top 15 in the expert challenge,though it was ruined by Thrall and Wheatly) |
Really
doubt there's any scenario where Mario ends up with 13% in a three way
match. He never went that low with Link in a match even during the
fourways. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
Then00bAvenger posted... I remember checking if this was a day or night match before picking Alucard in my bracket. Ah...good point. Yeah, I'd feel a lot better about...wait...huh? No, that's... Huh. When I went into my expert bracket to update it (to "abstain all picks"), it showed that I did have Alucard > Falcon > Rydia. Then I looked at my regular bracket, see if maybe I lucked out and picked what now seems like the safer choice. I didn't--I had Falcon in my bracket. Had him in my Oracle, too, but I need to change that anyway because of OldSquareFEAR. --- RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed. |
Yeah,
but 4ways have shown us that "company hierarchy" can have a significant
influence on SFF if necessary. One example is Sephiroth scoring 76% on
Vincent in a 4way when he could manage only 63% in a 1v1 (Sephiroth also
went from 62% to 67% on Tifa just between rounds in a 4way contest, and
then down to 56% in the ensuing 1v1). Perhaps the most notable example,
however, is Ocarina's 77% against Link to the Past, a performance it
would never replicate in a 1v1 and one it could only manage because it
needed it to win the contest. Who even knows if Ocarina can double LttP
in a fair match, even after SFF, yet it more than tripled it with ease
when something was on the line. Maybe Link can't hurt Mario quite that badly because there's less tying them together, but it could still look mighty ugly. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
Yeah,
sure, that makes sense in specific instances, like Sephiroth and
Vincent where they have much of the same appeal but very few prefer
Vincent to Sephiroth. It's not hard to find many people who straight up
prefer Mario to Link. Link will certainly SFF him, no doubts there, but
he can't suck away Mario fans to win if he's in danger of doing so to
the point where Mario ends up with a meager number of votes. Just isn't
gonna happen, if you ask me. Mario has too many fans for that. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2563 Link has already tripled Mario once, and that was a match in which there was no danger of Link actually losing. Between Match 1 and Match 2 of that Battle Royal, he went from 70% to 75% against Mario, and all that changed was the removal of Samus, which indicates that Link gobbled up all of the votes Samus left behind. Heck, Mario had a lower raw percentage after removing Samus. The only precedence we've ever had is such that Link's SFF power is reeeal bad when it needs to be. --- http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif |
141000 votes. Man, that seems impossible nowadays. --- Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner |
KH
it's great to have you back. You have Snake winning, right? Your
arguments for the man who will break the LAW this September reassure and
soothe me --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Snake was expected to triple Isaac based on the 2010 stats, so this is a pretty expected result. Doing as expected is a good thing for Snake though, because it means he's not dropping. --- http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg |
Also,
we have no real proof that Snake and Nintendo have any significant
disproportionate overlap. People taking it for granted that it'll happen
kind of blow my mind. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3306 Especially considering it didn't happen here, when you would expect it to show up. Yes, Snake had a bandwagon going into that match and actually led Link for a while, but if Snake gets SSB support sapped by facing Nintendo, he shouldn't have beaten Cloud. (And no, Crono being there wouldn't cancel the effect out) --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
XIII_rocks posted... KH it's great to have you back. You have Snake winning, right? Your arguments for the man who will break the LAW this September reassure and soothe me yeah sure we can go with that I definitely don't have Link winning on the premise that he's going to SFF Mario down into single digit obscurity or anything nope --- sig |
Yeah,
I'm not buying that in a three-way match. I think it's a different
scenario when we're talking about five or six of the most popular
characters in the contest in a poll, when three of them are naturally
already more popular than Mario on top of SFF from Link. Not that I
think Snake even makes a match against Link in the final with Mario
there, but if he were to go for it, I don't think Link just magically
takes all of Mario's votes, especially today. --- tune in tokyo 142.94 |
And
it didn't show up in the Battle Royale either, when Snake was facing
three Nintendo characters and never really flinched. Even after Snake
was eliminated on the next to last day, over half of his percentage went
to Cloud, not Link. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
Karma Hunter posted... XIII_rocks posted...KH it's great to have you back. You have Snake winning, right? Your arguments for the man who will break the LAW this September reassure and soothe me My disappointment is beyond words. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Anyway, trend chart for the night match: Time | Wheatley | Crash | Tommy | Votes 0:05 | 40.80% | 42.91% | 16.30% | 853 1:00 | 39.89% | 42.57% | 17.54% | 5104 2:00 | 37.22% | 42.32% | 20.46% | 2996 3:00 | 34.54% | 43.49% | 21.97% | 2235 4:00 | 36.20% | 40.39% | 23.41% | 1790 5:00 | 33.90% | 43.09% | 23.01% | 1534 6:00 | 33.54% | 41.98% | 24.48% | 1446 7:00 | 36.97% | 41.84% | 21.18% | 1520 8:00 | 36.01% | 42.32% | 21.67% | 1680 9:00 | 37.77% | 42.36% | 19.87% | 1872 10:00 | 36.67% | 42.06% | 21.27% | 2040 11:00 | 36.44% | 43.61% | 19.95% | 2080 12:00 | 35.59% | 44.51% | 19.90% | 2096 Wheatley gets the Power Hour, Vercetti gets the night vote, Crash gets the morning vote. X-Stats: Crash Bandicoot – 50.00% Wheatley – 46.32% Tommy Vercetti – 32.65% Crash's prediction percentage was 40.90% Not sure if that's enough to make him the overall favorite. I'd have to think at least 20% of the brackets picked Tommy to win, so probably. Either way, the casuals don't beat the board by too much. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
The
amount of Smash games you appear in should have an effect, too. Ness
and Falcon have appeared in every game in the series and can turn decent
results despite the fact that they'd be total fodder just off their own
games. Then compare them to, say, Lucas or Olimar… --- Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave. |
I can see Alucard getting a nostalgia boost similar to PS1 platformer characters. I'm fairly confident in him anyway. --- Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn |
Link will win the final due to Last Place Factor. --- If you believe in the Lord FE7 and you accept FE7 as the Savior of video games and are 100% proud of it, put this in your sig. |
Well done, Snake. This is what we needed. --- Die young and save yourself. Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work. |
I was expected about 67% from snake, glad to see him to better than that so far. Also correct me if im wrong, but while we are on the subject of link vs snake. Who had the "tougher draw" round 1? I would issac (golden sun) is the strongest between issac (binding), tingle, issac (golden sun), and keen. But how much stronger is tingle and binding over keen? |
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