Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1071

#151 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 10:40:26 PM | message detail
Ridley (and Falcon, too) are probably overrated a bit in the 2010 stats due to facing Cloud.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CbfFb.jpg
#152 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/21/2013 10:45:28 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Ridley (and Falcon, too) are probably overrated a bit in the 2010 stats due to facing Cloud.


...Actually, I forgot about that. Another reason for Falcon to drop that match, too. And out of curiosity (and my internet being complete **** right now), what does Ridley hover at? And what's Zidane's X-stat value?
#153 | pjbasis | Posted 7/21/2013 10:47:10 PM | message detail
Alucard has a really resilient fanbase.

Falcon is like the opposite
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#154 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 10:47:34 PM | message detail
Zidane's X-Stat value isn't 100% accurate either because of Mario/Ike. Ike was adjusted based off of his 2008 stats, so that may be off a bit, too.

Either way, I'd be surprised if Zidane dropped that match.
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
#155 | superange128 | Posted 7/21/2013 10:53:33 PM | message detail
heh a 6 vote cut then a stall
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.
#156 | Big Bob | Posted 7/21/2013 10:55:59 PM | message detail
If we're saying Falcon is overrated because of Cloud anti-votes, then I'll have to remind everyone that Alucard faced Link, who was also being anti-voted.
---
Currently reading: The Kite Runner
Currently playing: Poker Night 2
#157 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 10:58:31 PM | message detail
Not to the extent Cloud was.

Either way, that match being a night match probably seals the deal for Alucard anyway.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#158 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/21/2013 11:01:52 PM | message detail
Big Bob posted...
If we're saying Falcon is overrated because of Cloud anti-votes, then I'll have to remind everyone that Alucard faced Link, who was also being anti-voted.


LeonhartFour posted...
Not to the extent Cloud was.

Either way, that match being a night match probably seals the deal for Alucard anyway.


This and this. Alucard's value is as legit as you can get unless you want to pit him against Mario and then go through a Link SFF adjustment. I don't believe there were antivotes at play in that match in a proportion big enough to significantly inflate his value. We're talking half an Xstat percent to a full percent, at the umost. Falcon shoulda benefitted more than that.
#159 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/21/2013 11:10:01 PM | message detail
Oh and to whoever said that 1 vote doesn't matter etc. I am aware, but votes just feel more significant these days since vote totals are so much lower than they used to be. I guess it is just perspective.
#160 | GoldSlime35 | Posted 7/21/2013 11:27:25 PM | message detail
My perfect is dying here as well. Was hoping it would last longer. Oh well.
#161 | pjbasis | Posted 7/21/2013 11:31:19 PM | message detail
Man look at Vercetti go!

All at the expense of Wheatley too
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#162 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/22/2013 12:22:34 AM | message detail
Eh, I have Wheatley in my bracket but it's hard to begrudge Crash this win, especially after Spyro's victory. PS1 mascots moving on up to the midcard!
---
Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#163 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/22/2013 12:28:51 AM | message detail
I thank Leon and The Show (TM) for convincing me to change to Crash over Wheatley.

Now just wait for Vlado to complain about new characters not faring well.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#164 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/22/2013 1:10:20 AM | message detail
So, now that...this has occurred, I am almost wondering if Ratchet might make a play for first in his match. Especially with all these action game characters bombing left and right. I almost wondering if Altair might have a similar fate.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#165 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 1:11:44 AM | message detail
Looks like Vercetti will end up looking a little less pathetic than he did at the start. Doing good with the night vote.
---
http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif
#166 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/22/2013 1:38:22 AM | message detail
If anything, Tommy has to rise because GTA probably has the worst board vote/Power Hour ever. Couldn't go anywhere but up.
---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#167 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 1:48:49 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
So, now that...this has occurred, I am almost wondering if Ratchet might make a play for first in his match. Especially with all these action game characters bombing left and right. I almost wondering if Altair might have a similar fate.


I can't really see it. Would you take Ratchet to have an even match with Liquid Snake? No? If not, why take him to beat Altair? Altair's character design is freakin' godslaying, he's not gonna job it up like Vercetti or 47 because he's all about how badass he looks.
#168 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/22/2013 1:52:33 AM | message detail
TOMMY VERCETTY!!! REMEMBER THE NAME!

Yeah I remember...you are a loser
#169 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 2:14:47 AM | message detail
That match with Liquid is fishy as all get out. Altair lost to friggin' Duke Nukem twice.
---
http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg
#170 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/22/2013 2:20:34 AM | message detail
Well then that's 3 overperformances now. Sony mascots have certainly boosted dramatically as a force. Bodes well for Lara and Ratchet
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#171 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 2:21:23 AM | message detail
Lara's chances of losing her round 1 match were pretty slim anyway. It doesn't affect her too much.
---
"I can set you free, mate."
"My freedom was forfeit long ago!"
#172 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/22/2013 2:21:29 AM | message detail
I don't understand why Ezio is such a top tier while Altair weak as hell
I didnt play AC so they look the same to me!!
#173 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 2:24:38 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
I didnt play AC so they look the same to me!!


Yeah, it might help to actually play the games before you say they're the same.

Because they're nothing alike aside from both being assassins.
---
http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif
http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif
#174 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 7/22/2013 2:33:44 AM | message detail
Yeah, Ezio is actually likable, whereas Altair has the personality of a potato
---
The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
#175 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/22/2013 2:41:20 AM | message detail
Plus Ezio's games are much better-received than AC1.

It's too bad Ratchet's performance is pretty much set in stone. Altair's out of his range even with major boosting, and we all know Shulk is going to perform like complete and utter ass.

So, Crash or Elizabeth for second?
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#176 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 2:47:16 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3277

I dunno. I don't really think of that as out of Ratchet's range unless everyone thinks his showing on Jecht was a fluke or something. Altair's the one with flukier performances though.
---
"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"
#177 | Achromatic | Posted 7/22/2013 3:09:14 AM | message detail
59% on Liquid Snake is what I would call out of Ratchet's range.
---
Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#178 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/22/2013 3:23:00 AM | message detail
Another match where I got it wrong AND because I didn't believe in the power of old playstation characters.I would be perfect but nope,I am now -2.Anyway Crash is winning a match!
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#179 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/22/2013 3:30:08 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
59% on Liquid Snake is what I would call out of Ratchet's range.


Liquid Snake is weaker than GLaDOS according to 2010.

Either way, there's a good chance that Altair is weaker now (unless you think that Revelations boosted him somehow, lol), and that Ratchet is stronger. I wouldn't say it's completely impossible, but it's certainly a longshot. Also for what it's worth Ratchet isn't seeded nearly as highly as Spyro or Crash, albeit much higher than Jak.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#180 | Achromatic | Posted 7/22/2013 3:34:47 AM | message detail
I think a lot of Altair's strength is iconic. As others have mentioned he is kind of boring but when you see him it is like "Oh hey the assassin guy." He has a good look to him.
---
Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#181 | paulg235 | Posted 7/22/2013 3:34:48 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
So, Crash or Elizabeth for second?

Going with Crash because **** it, I'm rooting for him to bow out respectively.
---
The Gamer In Me
His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks
#182 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/22/2013 3:36:55 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
I think a lot of Altair's strength is iconic. As others have mentioned he is kind of boring but when you see him it is like "Oh hey the assassin guy." He has a good look to him.


Yeah, for all we know AC fans probably just forgot to nominate him...wait no that doesn't make much sense unless they actually don't like him.

If a character is not liked by his games' own fanbase, that spells trouble! Um...
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#183 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/22/2013 4:03:06 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
59% on Liquid Snake is what I would call out of Ratchet's range.


And totally inconsistent with every other performance Altair has ever had.

So yeah.
---
"So cold. I am always by your side."
"There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!"
#184 | Lopen | Posted 7/22/2013 4:12:21 AM | message detail
Personally I would call a close match with Duke Nukem out of Ratchet's range too. Duke's actually a low midcarder Ratchet is still below the fodder line
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#185 | RPGlord95 | Posted 7/22/2013 4:15:34 AM | message detail
This contest is playing out more like 2002 than 2002 did
---
Whiskey Nick on his cell phone
The most American Canadian on Board 8 - #9 Bro on Board 8
#186 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/22/2013 4:16:01 AM | message detail
Sony is doing so good.I mean we had 3 debatable matches and in 2 Sony's characters won easily and in the other one the guy lost because of the biggest rally ever.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#187 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/22/2013 4:20:41 AM | message detail
Granted, they all had super lucky matches.
---
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#188 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2013 4:51:36 AM | message detail
Welp, looks like the Kay Aitch infallible bracket finally stumbles here (and this was a wacky pick that I *meant* to take, though if I had known Crash wasn't the board favorite I might have reconsidered).

I can't quite explain how infallibility results in getting matches wrong, but I'm sure Mewtwo > Vincent will explain all that away nicely next round.
---
sig
#189 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/22/2013 5:06:15 AM | message detail
Leon pls just because you called Crash doesn't mean you can make us believe Ratchet will win

leon stahp
---
You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#190 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/22/2013 5:18:32 AM | message detail
Burned bracket aside it is nice to see the better characters winning a lot of these matches and not just company voting deciding things.
---
Smurf, the cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
#191 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2013 7:44:33 AM | message detail
Match XXVIII: (1) Solid Snake vs. (18) Isaac vs. (27) Commander Keen

Previous Contest

Solid Snake – 2010
72.35% against Proto Man
67.03% against Fox McCloud
55.20% against Pikachu
59.17% against Squall Leonhart
52.96% against Sephiroth
47.91% against Cloud Strife

Isaac – 2010
68.79% against Professor Layton
39.52% against L-Block

Commander Keen – N/A
N/A

Analysis

Solid Snake is thought to have the best chance at winning this contest and only because Mario will be there to LFF Link. While I would not say he has no chance, unless he looks great over the next four rounds I do not believe he will have much of a chance. Regardless this should be an easy match for Snake as both of these characters are weaker than anything Snake saw in 2010.

Isaac should also not have a problem taking second place. Golden Sun 3 has been released since his last appearance though that was back in late 2010 and his role in that game is small compared to the first two games so I do not expect much of a boost out of him. Still with his performances against L-Block I do not expect him to get completely crushed.

Commander Keen on the other hand I can see being one of the weakest characters in the entire bracket. Had Commander Keen appeared back when the contests began in 2002 he may have some strength. While he does have a couple of fans on the board I doubt too many people know of his existence, especially among the younger crowd.

Metal Gear Solid V has been announced so it will be interesting to see if Snake has gain in strength. Regardless Snake should be able to break 60% in this match as Isaac is not the strongest character while I would be surprised if Keen finished this match above 15%.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake > Isaac and Commander Keen

charmandre6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake – 61.67%, Isaac – 26.26%, Commander Keen – 12.07%
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 23/26 Today's Picks: Vercetti and Solid Snake
#192 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 7:50:25 AM | message detail
If Snake goes for 60% on this crowd he's completely finished. I expect 70% minimum, Commander Keen is gonna be jobberific and might not crack 10%.
#193 | pjbasis | Posted 7/22/2013 7:52:19 AM | message detail
That's harsh.

Isaac is legit man
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#194 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/22/2013 7:56:04 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
That's harsh.

Isaac is legit man


OK, yeah, Isaac is for real, but I feel like Snake is gonna fodderize his ass by stealing part of his Ninty support (they do share Brawl after all). Crying shame that he got wasted going up against Snake because I'd take him to kill a bunch of matches, but whatcha gonna do?

Totally don't buy Keen being worth a damn though. He could seriously come close to Chester and Caim.
#195 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/22/2013 8:03:49 AM | message detail
70% is probably a bit much to ask of Snake. Snake's way stronger than Big Boss, sure, but I think at some point it just becomes a case of diminishing returns and your % becomes more dependent on your opponents having nobody that cares about them.

So Snake will 'only' get around 65%.
#196 | thunderstruck9 | Posted 7/22/2013 8:03:51 AM | message detail
Dang it Tommy, you're effin up my bracket. Down two points now.
---
Always move fast, you never know who's catching up!
#197 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2013 8:04:43 AM | message detail
I may have low balled Snake, but only if Keen really flops.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 23/26 Today's Picks: Vercetti and Solid Snake
#198 | pjbasis | Posted 7/22/2013 8:06:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
I think Isaac overlaps with RPG a lot more than Nintendo.

And Snake doesn't overlap enough with Nintendo for that kind of SFF to happen between them either.
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#199 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/22/2013 8:08:32 AM | message detail
Sad because I originally had Crash but then got swayed into switching by the BOP, grrrrr. Oh well, at least Crash gets a win in 2013
#200 | tgs2 | Posted 7/22/2013 8:10:17 AM | message detail
The only lock in this match to me (besides Snake winning of course) is Isaac breaking 20%. What Snake does is purely dependent on Keen.