Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1071

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/21/2013 8:24:06 PM | message detail
Are you ready to celebrate Crash not winning his first match in 11 years? I am!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 7/21/2013 8:24:33 PM | message detail
Wheatley...
#3 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:25:02 PM | message detail
Poor Crash
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#4 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 8:27:57 PM | message detail
Crash got this.
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#5 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/21/2013 9:09:21 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
25------51----------96.08
24------238--------95.80
23------491--------90.22
22------875--------83.43
21------1380------76.30
20------1942------75.70
19------2192------73.36
18------2115------71.25
17------1768------69.17
16------1334------66.64
15------961--------62.43
14------629--------60.41
13------407--------56.51
12------297--------47.47
11------212--------44.81
10------124--------38.71
9--------71----------40.85
8--------57----------49.12
7--------37----------32.43
6--------21----------23.81
5--------11----------18.18
4--------5------------40.00
3--------3------------33.33
2--------17----------0.00
1--------4------------0.00
0--------12----------0.00

The perfects didn't quite go perfect this time. Two of them seem to think Kirby could lose the battle. Still, the perfects and -1s were pretty close to going perfect.

2 people fell off the Top 49. Glucose7 and VNAF_Ace did not have Kirby winning the match. With this there are now exactly 49 perfect brackets so we'll know the names of each one that falls and when.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#6 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:09:49 PM | message detail
Up yours, moderator. >_<
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#7 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 9:09:50 PM | message detail
lol Baseman

lol people who honestly thought Wheatly was as strong as Crash
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#8 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 9:09:56 PM | message detail
Yeah this is probably done. I have to hand it to those who picked Crash here with 11 years of losses. Dude deserves to win one.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#9 | TAFKAHurricane | Posted 7/21/2013 9:10:20 PM | message detail
Phew glad I put Vercetti in last right before the poll started
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#10 | Silver_Ermine | Posted 7/21/2013 9:10:27 PM | message detail
Couldn't have one character I like win... good ol ermine luck :(
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#11 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/21/2013 9:10:40 PM | message detail
this might be fun
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#12 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/21/2013 9:10:47 PM | message detail
Oh boy. This is gonna be an all-nighter, isn't it?
#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:03 PM | message detail
#14 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:05 PM | message detail
Still very heated! Let it go, Wheatley supporters. This is not where contests are won and lost. Succumb to the natural order of things.
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#15 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:05 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
2 people fell off the Top 49. Glucose7 and VNAF_Ace did not have Kirby winning the match. With this there are now exactly 49 perfect brackets so we'll know the names of each one that falls and when.

Mine shouldn't last much longer rofl
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#16 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:09 PM | message detail
Ladies and gentleman, we finally have another close match for 1st.
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#17 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:12 PM | message detail
Well...huh.

I did not expect that.
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#18 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:19 PM | message detail
Oh and even if Wheatley wins, the people picking Crash were still technically right. This isn't even remotely close 1 on 1.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#19 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:23 PM | message detail
Quick, somebody rally for Wheatley!
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Point Total: 26/26. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Wheatley Day: Snake
#20 | Sorozone | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:51 PM | message detail
Vercetti has Vermont going for him.
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#21 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/21/2013 9:11:56 PM | message detail
Oh wow, this could end up a pretty close match. Crash needs to build a big lead though since if this is close at the end, there sure won't be the rally potential for Crash that a Valve character has.
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#22 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:12:05 PM | message detail
Crash doing this well without having any games out since 2008 is incredible.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#23 | Metal_DK | Posted 7/21/2013 9:12:26 PM | message detail
this was the first round match i questioned the most. Even more than Phoenix/Nightmare/Marth. I thought it was between Wheatley and Crash (mainly because Sony seems to be the "good guy" out of the big 3 right now), but i thought Vercetti would be way better than this.
#24 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2013 9:12:33 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Oh and even if Wheatley wins, the people picking Crash were still technically right. This isn't even remotely close 1 on 1.


Yup, you really cannot fault one side or the other for their pick with this one thus far.
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#25 | Qwaar | Posted 7/21/2013 9:12:35 PM | message detail
Oh god, this is going to be a nerve-shredder, isn't it? COME ON CRASH!
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#26 | Baseman (Moderator) | Posted 7/21/2013 9:12:56 PM | message detail
lol me? The match just started.
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 9:13:11 PM | message detail
These Sony mascots doing well this year despite being total crap throughout their history speaks to how much this site loves the Playstation right now.
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#28 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2013 9:13:56 PM | message detail
Let's do this Wheatley.

Let's. Do. This.
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#29 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/21/2013 9:14:00 PM | message detail
Yuna > Claire > Chief confirmed.
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http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#30 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 9:14:15 PM | message detail
Someone deploy the Romerosignal Vercetti needs his help
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#31 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:27 PM | message detail
#32 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:28 PM | message detail
boom
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
#33 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:30 PM | message detail
http://wiki.teamfortress.com/w/images/4/47/Wheatley_sapper_hacked47.wav?t=20130313020624
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#34 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:35 PM | message detail
Oh damn, Wheatley in the lead.
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#35 | pjbasis | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:35 PM | message detail
Dude Vercetti

lol man
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#36 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:41 PM | message detail
I think people are grossly overestimating how strong Wheatly is. Crash is fodder, and so is Wheatly. In almost any other match, Wheatly would be destroyed.
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#37 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:51 PM | message detail
"Crash can only go up" - Sir Chris
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JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.
#38 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/21/2013 9:15:51 PM | message detail
Lead change. The first (second? Do we count it pre-freeze?) of many.
#39 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:01 PM | message detail
Yes Wheatley, yes, YES
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#40 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:10 PM | message detail
Please tell me I'm not too late to make the first STUFFING accusation of the contest.
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#41 | Qwaar | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:19 PM | message detail
OK, I'm worried now.
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#42 | Metal_DK | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:40 PM | message detail
am i the only one who doesn't think all the vercetti votes would be mostly crash votes? I know a lot more GTA fans who played/enjoyed portal at least somwhat than GTA fans who like the crash series
#43 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:42 PM | message detail
Wheatley doing what he needs to.
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#44 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2013 9:16:57 PM | message detail
I kinda feel like that if this is the best Wheatley can do, he's done. Portal is a Power Hour monsters, Crash, not so much.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#45 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2013 9:18:42 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Please tell me I'm not too late to make the first STUFFING accusation of the contest.


Pretty sure Draven got a few!
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#46 | Xuxon | Posted 7/21/2013 9:18:53 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 7/21/2013 10:47:46 PM | #426
Wheatley winning for 15 minutes before Crash rolls past for the victory would be pretty interesting!

i'm gonna laugh if Wheatley's only lead is right at 15 minutes
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#47 | RockMFR | Posted 7/21/2013 9:19:06 PM | message detail
I have a feeling that Wheatley is going to be up 2000 votes when I wake up. Or down 5000. Not sure.
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#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 9:19:40 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 7/21/2013 10:47:46 PM | #426
Wheatley winning for 15 minutes before Crash rolls past for the victory would be pretty interesting!

i'm gonna laugh if Wheatley's only lead is right at 15 minutes


Consider it...called!
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#49 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/21/2013 9:20:28 PM | message detail
#50 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 9:20:33 PM | message detail
Again.
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