Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1070

#401 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 4:54:42 PM | message detail
I apparently misclicked Kefka in my bracket. I could have sworn I picked Zack.
But in my expert I'm going with Zack>Ryu H>Kefka.
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#402 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 4:55:22 PM | message detail
How big is Ninja Gaiden nowadays? Has a new game been released recently?
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#403 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/21/2013 4:58:03 PM | message detail
He had Ninja Gaiden 3, but I heard it wasn't that good.
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#404 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2013 4:58:24 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Kefka took that match.
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#405 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/21/2013 4:59:04 PM | message detail
Get ready for ZackFAQs. I don't know why, but if there has to be one FFVII character that can resist the game's decline and the anti-votes, it's gotta be Zack Fair.
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#406 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/21/2013 5:06:57 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Get ready for ZackFAQs. I don't know why, but if there has to be one FFVII character that can resist the game's decline and the anti-votes, it's gotta be Zack Fair.


This. Zack feels like an entity that should be more or less static considering that he's had some exposure since last contest and is basically a proxy for cloud without the hate. I also think he just might steal Hayabusa's fanbase if he gets a particularly badass picture - remember that this happened with Ryu H vs. Snake, it could happen with Zack.
#407 | Advokaiser | Posted 7/21/2013 5:08:44 PM | message detail
I'd be really surprised if Kefka took that match.
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#408 | anondum | Posted 7/21/2013 5:13:29 PM | message detail
kefka is a yearly dud overrated by FF6 fans. expect 3rd place
#409 | abdou | Posted 7/21/2013 5:21:50 PM | message detail
Zack wins
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#410 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/21/2013 5:29:26 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Why do you need to know Chester or Tanner to anti-vote Sephiroth? If you are anti-voting, all you really care about is that they aren't Sephiroth and also not some other character you also like to anti-vote (like Cloud).


In a match like Sephiroth/Chester/Tanner, there are 4 different ways of voting:

1. You vote for Sephiroth, but the presence of Chester or Tanner is not a factor in your decision to vote Sephiroth. These are the voters that would pretty much vote for Sephiroth in almost all matches that he appears in.

2. You vote for Sephiroth even though you would anti-vote him in most match-ups, but only because you don't know who Chester or Tanner are.

3. You anti-vote Sephiroth and vote for Chester or Tanner, either as a joke vote or because you legitimately like either Chester or Tanner.

4. You refuse to vote for Sephiroth, but since you don't know who Chester and Tanner are, you decide the best option is to not vote in this match at all. This is exactly the reason why a match like Sephiroth/Chester/Tanner probably gets less votes than Big Boss/Peacock/Viridian.
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#411 | isNotPerfect | Posted 7/21/2013 5:33:42 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
4. You refuse to vote for Sephiroth, but since you don't know who Chester and Tanner are, you decide the best option is to not vote in this match at all. This is exactly the reason why a match like Sephiroth/Chester/Tanner probably gets less votes than Big Boss/Peacock/Viridian.

wut?

Reason 1 is why Sephiroth would get a bajillion votes and the votals would be higher. He is easily one of the most recognizable characters in the contest. Far moreso than Big Boss, Peacock, or Viridian.
#412 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/21/2013 5:34:22 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Why do you need to know Chester or Tanner to anti-vote Sephiroth? If you are anti-voting, all you really care about is that they aren't Sephiroth and also not some other character you also like to anti-vote (like Cloud).


In a match like Sephiroth/Chester/Tanner, there are 4 different ways of voting:

1. You vote for Sephiroth, but the presence of Chester or Tanner is not a factor in your decision to vote Sephiroth. These are the voters that would pretty much vote for Sephiroth in almost all matches that he appears in.

2. You vote for Sephiroth even though you would anti-vote him in most match-ups, but only because you don't know who Chester or Tanner are.

3. You anti-vote Sephiroth and vote for Chester or Tanner, either as a joke vote or because you legitimately like either Chester or Tanner.

4. You refuse to vote for Sephiroth, but since you don't know who Chester and Tanner are, you decide the best option is to not vote in this match at all. This is exactly the reason why a match like Sephiroth/Chester/Tanner probably gets less votes than Big Boss/Peacock/Viridian.

5. You anti-vote Sephiroth despite not giving a damn about either Chester or Tanner because f*** Sephiroth
#413 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/21/2013 5:36:33 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
5. You anti-vote Sephiroth despite not giving a damn about either Chester or Tanner because f*** Sephiroth


That's pretty much the same thing as number 3.
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#414 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 7/21/2013 5:37:13 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
5. You anti-vote Sephiroth despite not giving a damn about either Chester or Tanner because f*** Sephiroth


That's pretty much the same thing as number 3.


so like TRE said, you don't actually need to know either of them
#415 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 5:56:04 PM | message detail
There are three things you need to understand about Kefka/Zack/Hayabusa

1. Kefka's matches rarely make sense
2. Hayabusa's matches rarely make sense
3. They are both ridiculously dependent on their match pic

Zack has been overall the most consistent competitor, so I'm going with him, and I feel like out of all the FFVII characters, he probably gets anti-voted the least because he isn't a relevant character in the original game.

But Hayabusa is sort of in the same situation Hero was. If you don't want to vote for Final Fantasy, you have one option.
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#416 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/21/2013 6:01:54 PM | message detail
After seeing Hero get 25% on Aeris/Rinoa, I feel like Hayabusa's floor is the low-30s and if he does much better than that then barring Kefka or Zack being SFFed to death he's in great shape for the upset.
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#417 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/21/2013 6:44:23 PM | message detail
Zack/Kefka/Ryu is probably a day off on the Expert Challenge for a good portion of us. I may just go No Pick/No Pick/Kefka just to do something.
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#418 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/21/2013 7:29:31 PM | message detail
Match XXVII: (7) Wheatley vs. (12) Crash Bandicoot vs. (21) Tommy Vercetti

Previous Contest

Wheatley – N/A
N/A

Crash Bandicoot – 2010
38.21% against Ryu Hayabusa

Tommy Vercetti – 2007
14.69% against Master Chief, Yuna and PaRappa the Rapper

Analysis

As the contest goes on there will always be those matches where I lose complete faith in my bracket pick for the winner. While I still believe Vercetti was underrated in 2007 and that his actual strength is higher than what he showed against Master Chief and Yuna I also took the pick believing the other two characters will be of a certain strength which is not the case anymore.

It is hard to ignore the performances of the Playstation platform characters so far in this contest. Crash has always been the strongest of the group and while the others are not world beaters they have been impressing in their own way. Even if there is no boost Crash always had the strength to win this match with his current strength as he has been fluctuating between high fodder to low mid-carder throughout his contest career.

Wheatley I do not see having much strength. GlaDOS was crushed by Kirby in 2010, though that was before free Portal and Portal 2. Regardless Wheatley will be weaker than GlaDOS as he only appeared in Portal 2 which is not as popular as the original game. The Portal meme has also died down a bit, but since we do not know their strength at their peak it is hard to tell how much weaker they are now.

Interestingly Crash Bandicoot has not won a match since 2002 so it will be nice to see him win again. Wheatley can win this match, but I do not see their characters having much strength, especially now that the memes are a bit weaker. I feel Vercetti will prove himself to be stronger than 2007, but with Vice City getting older he could just flop.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tommy Vercetti > Crash Bandicoot and Wheatley

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crash Bandicoot – 39.22%, Tommy Vercetti – 32.67%, Wheatley – 28.11%
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#419 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2013 7:37:47 PM | message detail | (edited)
Half-serious here: I think Portal 2 being given out for free so many damn times on Steam should at least make most gamers aware of Wheatley's design to associate it with Portal (which is still a popular series people enjoy).

Then again, this is GameFAQs not PCGamingFAQs.
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#420 | spooky96 | Posted 7/21/2013 7:36:42 PM | message detail
charmander6000’s Bracket: Tommy Vercetti > Crash Bandicoot and Wheatley


Alright so at least one known member of B8 will lose a point along with me for the same reason.
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#421 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 7:38:52 PM | message detail
Portal 2 wasn't given out for free. Portal was.
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#422 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2013 7:42:19 PM | message detail
I'm going with Wheatley because, again, the Portal thing but also because GTA is hot right now but only SA would be getting a boost because a lot of gamers are on a nostalgia trip to tide them over until GTA5 hits. Vercetti cannot be getting a boost because Vice City isn't the GTA game that everyone is playing right now. I'm still not sold on Crash Bandicoot, he hasn't had a console game since 2008 and Spyro's performance (the two are kind of intertwined) was because he was against ultra-fodder. Did he have a good match against Ryu H? Yes, but Ninja Gaiden has also been on a slide as of late.
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#423 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2013 7:44:30 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Portal 2 wasn't given out for free. Portal was.


I was using some hyperbole, Portal 2 is given crazy sale prices all the time.
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#424 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 7:45:37 PM | message detail
I really want an interesting match! But I think Wheatley is going to win about 15 minutes into the poll. I'll be voting for Vercetti, however.
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#425 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2013 7:47:44 PM | message detail
I'm actually a little surprised we didn't see a return of CJ or even the debut of Claude Speede (or whatever the name of the GTA3 guy is) in a contest. Especially with GTA being so hot right now with GTA5 on the horizon.
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#426 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 7:47:46 PM | message detail
Wheatley winning for 15 minutes before Crash rolls past for the victory would be pretty interesting!
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#427 | Sorozone | Posted 7/21/2013 7:50:07 PM | message detail
I'm expecting it to be close...but at the same time I half-way expect one of these guys to run away with it, the other to flop, and another just stuck in the middle. None of these guys can possibly by Reyn level, so I think the close match is more likely.
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#428 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:19:02 PM | message detail
I'm nervous about this one. Could be my first miss of the contest! *bites nails*
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Point Total: 24/24. Guru Status: Alive
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#429 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:24:23 PM | message detail
Btw, where is the match pic?
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Point Total: 26/26. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Wheatley Day: Snake
#430 | paulg235 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:25:49 PM | message detail
What themes are we blaring for each character here?
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#431 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:29:03 PM | message detail
Tommy Vercetti - I ran by A Flock of Seagulls

or any 80s music really.
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#432 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 8:29:28 PM | message detail
Seriously why is Vercetti being written off here? It's not like Crash has shown any sort of strength... well, ever. I expected Wheatley to be the favorite but the fact that Crash has like 5x the predictions Vercetti does seems strange.
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#433 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 8:29:50 PM | message detail
#434 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/21/2013 8:30:22 PM | message detail
Vercetti all day erry day
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nt
#435 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 8:30:24 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Seriously why is Vercetti being written off here?


Because GTA has done nothing but get weaker over the last 6 years.
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#436 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:30:57 PM | message detail
Still trying to decide if I should bank tonight or not.
#437 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 8:31:00 PM | message detail
I just feel like Vercetti has much more reason to drop than either of these other characters. Wheatley's game is newer and Crash, while he's stuck in a limbo land at the moment, was at a time one of gaming's biggest mascots. Vercetti was in one game more than a decade ago now.
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#438 | tgs2 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:31:52 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Seriously why is Vercetti being written off here? It's not like Crash has shown any sort of strength... well, ever. I expected Wheatley to be the favorite but the fact that Crash has like 5x the predictions Vercetti does seems strange.


Crash consistently keeps making it into the contest while Vercetti vanished after getting humiliated against MC in 2007? I got Vercetti, but I'm already accepting that he's going to lose.
#439 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 8:31:57 PM | message detail
Using Niko Bellic as the emissary for GTA seems like a bad idea. That game got a very mixed reaction.
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#440 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 8:32:36 PM | message detail
That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if Vercetti won. No one here is a strong character. It's just going to be a matter of who sucks the least.
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#441 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/21/2013 8:33:39 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Using Niko Bellic as the emissary for GTA seems like a bad idea. That game got a very mixed reaction.


dont worry, theyll learn in a few mintues. Its gonna be great.
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#442 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2013 8:34:04 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Using Niko Bellic as the emissary for GTA seems like a bad idea. That game got a very mixed reaction.


Well, it's not like the GTA games did that great in GOTD either!

Vice City went from 46% on Melee to 35% on RE4.
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#443 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 8:35:56 PM | message detail
Also keep in mind that Vercetti in 2005 is X-Stat'd to like 60-40 2004 Crash (who I'd argue is overrated using those stats in the first place given his first round opponent)

Vercetti can afford to drop quite a bit and still be better than Crash here.
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#444 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 8:36:50 PM | message detail
I mean, I like Vercetti as a character. He's the best GTA has to offer. There's a reason why he's always in these contests. He has endeared himself to many people despite the age of his single game, which these days is not even a popular genre on this website. But the type of character he is has done pretty badly thus far this year, and despite my bias for him, I just don't see any evidence to suggest he's going to be magically strong enough to win this match. In fact, I am preparing for a pretty disappointing result of low 20%s for him...
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#445 | Lopen | Posted 7/21/2013 8:39:47 PM | message detail
We've yet to have a Tommy Vercetti type of character actually have a match this year so I'm not sure what you're saying there. Unless you mean "characters that look like normal humans have done bad" but none of them have had the widespread recognizability of Vercetti.
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#446 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/21/2013 8:40:52 PM | message detail
How do Portal and Crash do in Europe?
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#447 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/21/2013 8:42:19 PM | message detail
Crash is very strong in Europe. That's what sold me on Crash in this match, because it will happen at night.
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#448 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 8:44:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, basically that. Normal looking humans from western games. I hope I'm wrong... I just don't see it. I'd like a good match where all 3 are in contention, but yeah... Crash should keep in close but I'm still picking Wheatley to win.

But...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p633MECMg4
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#449 | Xuxon | Posted 7/21/2013 8:49:11 PM | message detail
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/21/2013 11:39:47 PM | #445
We've yet to have a Tommy Vercetti type of character actually have a match this year so I'm not sure what you're saying there. Unless you mean "characters that look like normal humans have done bad" but none of them have had the widespread recognizability of Vercetti.

to me Agent 47 is a decent red flag. bad guy protagonist, PS2 gen, missed the past two contests and is the bottom seed in the match.
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#450 | vcharon | Posted 7/21/2013 8:50:08 PM | message detail
That's a good example, Xuxon. People came in expecting better out of him and he disappointed... basically the same type of character.
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