GameFAQs Contests

Are you ready to celebrate Crash Bandicoot's first contest win in 11 years? I am!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif

I want to go with Elizabeth > Thrall > Poison but I'm not confident enough in Elizabeth to actually pick her =/
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

If you want to play it safe, just pick Poison for last and be done with it. That one's a mortal lock.
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http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif

Thrall is getting last.
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Pts: 23/24 Today's Picks: Thrall & Kirby
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

Oh my god I have Vincent over sonic what was I thinking

Eheudnfrnindndnfnfnfnfn
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~Zen

ZenOfThunder posted...

Oh my god I have Vincent over sonic what was I thinking

Eheudnfrnindndnfnfnfnfn

"sonic stinks in multi-way polls secret zen upset times he he he all the prize money"
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!

Yes I was probably thinking that. I was even rubbing my dirty Asian hands together
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~Zen

I don't understand how Sonic has a chance against Vincent. I mean, they go about 50/50 in a 1v1. The fact that Bowser is there should be enough SFF for Vincent to slip through.
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This sentence has five words. This sentence has eight words. Only one sentence in this signature is true.

VideoboysaysCube posted...

I mean, they go about 50/50 in a 1v1.

That was 7 years ago, man.

You think it's possible things have changed since then?
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"Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?"
"I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!"

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5156

look at this vincent

he is weak
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~Zen

Leon pls

Vincent > Squall was 7 years ago it's time to get over it!
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!

8 years ago
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."

But who's counting amirite
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!

CATS managed to cut Locke on the 7:25 PM update. It was only a 1 vote cut, but CATS managed to get in a cut.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!

Vincent doesn't need to be equal to Sonic. Vincent needs Bowser to drag Sonic down to Vincents level. Yet to be seen, but entirely possible.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif

-LusterSoldier- posted...

CATS managed to cut Locke on the 7:25 PM update. It was only a 1 vote cut, but CATS managed to get in a cut.

Victory.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif

Match XXV: (3) Elizabeth vs. (16) Poison vs. (25) Thrall

Previous Contest

Elizabeth – N/A
N/A

Poison – N/A
N/A

Thrall – 2010
20.19% against Link

Analysis

While I feel relatively confident on the order of this match I also feel that any of these characters could flo. Poison should be the weakest of the three, she (it is just easier this way) is from Final Fight which automatically makes her weak, but she does have a few appearances in Street Fighter. Still she is no Mike Haggar and I do not see Mike Haggar being much of anything either.

Thrall has shown to have some strength; even if you do not believe his borderline fodder performance against Link was legit his other match has shown him to be regular fodder. That might be enough to win this match should Elizabeth flop, but Thrall may also be in danger of flopping himself. With Blizzard sticking with World of Warcraft Thrall has not been getting the screen time he has had in the past. Also seeing Arthas flop so badly in 2010 does not give me a lot of confidence in Thrall maintaining his strength.

Elizabeth should be able to win, but should you believe she is weaker than Big Daddy then she does not have too much wiggle room should Thrall remain at his previous strength. Big Daddy’s first match was a loss to Balthier, but that was with only Bioshock. With Bioshock 2 released just a few weeks earlier he could not even cracked 55% against Ness and that was with hype helping him. Overall this would likely place Elizabeth at around the fodder line, but if we overestimate her strength by just a bit she is in danger of losing.

Still there are others that believe she will be stronger than Big Daddy which means she will easily win. Elizabeth also has the benefit that even if she does flop Thrall could also flop thus making her the winner. Poison could get second, but she would need quite the flop from Elizabeth to steal first.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Elizabeth > Thrall and Poison

charmander6000’s Prediction: Elizabeth – 42.45%, Thrall – 32.26%, Poison – 25.29%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 19/22 Today's Picks: Big Boss and Ness

It's nice to see me #4 on the overall leaderboard.

Too bad I picked CATS over Ness what was I thinking lololol >_>
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SuperNiceDog wags his tail better than your regular, standard dog.
-If someone scares the hell out of you, then are you protected by God?

You might get the pride of being the only perfect to lose his perfect because of CATS

Actually I think that happened to me in the villain's contest
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

charmander6000 posted...

Match XXV: (3) Elizabeth vs. (16) Poison vs. (25) Thrall

Previous Contest

Elizabeth – N/A
N/A

Poison – N/A
N/A

Thrall – 2010
20.19% against Link

Analysis

While I feel relatively confident on the order of this match I also feel that any of these characters could flo. Poison should be the weakest of the three, she (it is just easier this way) is from Final Fight which automatically makes her weak, but she does have a few appearances in Street Fighter. Still she is no Mike Haggar and I do not see Mike Haggar being much of anything either.

Thrall has shown to have some strength; even if you do not believe his borderline fodder performance against Link was legit his other match has shown him to be regular fodder. That might be enough to win this match should Elizabeth flop, but Thrall may also be in danger of flopping himself. With Blizzard sticking with World of Warcraft Thrall has not been getting the screen time he has had in the past. Also seeing Arthas flop so badly in 2010 does not give me a lot of confidence in Thrall maintaining his strength.

Elizabeth should be able to win, but should you believe she is weaker than Big Daddy then she does not have too much wiggle room should Thrall remain at his previous strength. Big Daddy’s first match was a loss to Balthier, but that was with only Bioshock. With Bioshock 2 released just a few weeks earlier he could not even cracked 55% against Ness and that was with hype helping him. Overall this would likely place Elizabeth at around the fodder line, but if we overestimate her strength by just a bit she is in danger of losing.

Still there are others that believe she will be stronger than Big Daddy which means she will easily win. Elizabeth also has the benefit that even if she does flop Thrall could also flop thus making her the winner. Poison could get second, but she would need quite the flop from Elizabeth to steal first.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Elizabeth > Thrall and Poison

charmander6000’s Prediction: Elizabeth – 42.45%, Thrall – 32.26%, Poison – 25.29%

have you played any WoW or paid any attention to it

thrall is like

the literal hero of the world
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JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.

not to say your analysis of % is wrong but your statement that he has become irrelevant because of WoW is flat out wrong
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JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.

Justin_Crossing posted...

not to say your analysis of % is wrong but your statement that he has become irrelevant because of WoW is flat out wrong

Didn't he get killed by Grom Hellscream's dumb child who nobody liked?

Yeah, comparing Thrall and Arthas is kinda silly. Arthas hasn't been relevant in WoW since he was killed like 5 years ago. Thrall is the most significant character of WoW in the last few years.
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http://i.imgur.com/lnKB0m9.jpg http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1184880/davis-again.gif http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8118/8656607511_94178dbf2e_o.gif

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Justin_Crossing posted...

not to say your analysis of % is wrong but your statement that he has become irrelevant because of WoW is flat out wrong

Didn't he get killed by Grom Hellscream's dumb child who nobody liked?

no

he is alive and well after you know

saving the world
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JustinCrossing (10:01:24 PM): omg why are muskrats so cute
Luster Reloaded (10:03:31 PM): I don't know why.

I blame Ness on the terrible vote totals today. Ness appears to suck at bringing in the votes, at least when looking at both of his matches in 2010.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!

Still confident in Vincent. Would take him over Sonic 1v1 though it's probable lots has changed in the past years since we had a contest. No idea which direction those changes will push these characters though! But here, Bowser is a significant handicap.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Vote Accepted


Elizabeth
70%
7 Votes

Poison
10%
1 Votes
Your Pick

Thrall
20%
2 Votes
Total Votes: 10

First for Poison
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POKEFEAR

Elizabeth
100%
3 Votes
Your Pick

Poison
0%
0 Votes

Thrall
0%
0 Votes

Vote Accepted

Elizabeth
58.82%
20 Votes
Your Pick

Poison
5.88%
2 Votes

Thrall
35.29%
12 Votes
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore

Thrall fell under Poison for a second there
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http://i.imgur.com/lnKB0m9.jpg http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1184880/davis-again.gif http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8118/8656607511_94178dbf2e_o.gif

Elizabeth's got this. Thrall had an early lead for second but Poison's catching up.

That Elizabeth pic is awful. Why on earth would you not use a pic that makes her instantly recognizable from the adverts?
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

Damn it, I was counting on TJF to pull through.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0

"Aw yeah, +6 for Expert, hooray for a new character that doesn't bomb- W-wait, Poison, what are you doing?! Oh, OK, gg."
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.

Okay so is this just brackets or do people actually like Elizabeth

I know absolutely nothing about Bioshock Infinite or how popular it is I just chose her going off Big Daddy go me
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sig

ShatteredElysium posted...

That Elizabeth pic is awful. Why on earth would you not use a pic that makes her instantly recognizable from the adverts?

Thrall's pic is even worse. The default bracket pic is so better than it...

Bah, had no idea who Thrall was so put Poison in second.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak

Thrall up 11 votes on Poison at the early freeze.

Poison easily has the best pic here. Elizabeth's bad, and Thrall's is worse.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif

Karma Hunter posted...

Okay so is this just brackets or do people actually like Elizabeth

She's one of the better characters to come out of this generation.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif

Yikes, Thrall sucks.

Wonder if people are voting for Poison based on the pic.

Fell right into the "trap."
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http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif

Also, should I start worrying about my Gilgamesh > Booker pick now?
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http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif

FFDragon posted...

Karma Hunter posted...

Okay so is this just brackets or do people actually like Elizabeth

She's one of the better characters to come out of this generation.

Yeah but going by GameFAQs that's usually a handicap. But hey, I'm not gonna complain!
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sig

My initial reaction to the first few seconds was "Hooray for my expert challenge!" then Poison started gaining on Thrall fast and now I'm expecting Thrall to be in last after the update. =(
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX

Wish Joel and Ellie had made it in. Doubt they would have done well or anything (though they'd beat Thrall/Poison) but they were great characters who deserved recognition over much of the rubbish that made it. Not sure why pre-release characters were banned this time.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information

I have a feeling this is going to be one of the worst cases of pic factor in this contest.

Score-Brackets-% Right
23------75----------85.33
22------340--------76.18
21------714--------70.03
20------1224------68.63
19------1774------67.53
18------2251------65.97
17------2224------65.33
16------2038------66.24
15------1558------61.30
14------1073------61.51
13------687--------63.76
12------428--------58.64
11------312--------53.85
10------205--------50.73
9--------135--------54.07
8--------68----------48.53
7--------52----------50.00
6--------36----------36.11
5--------15----------26.67
4--------6------------0.00
3--------6------------16.67
2--------16----------0.00
1--------5------------0.00
0--------12----------0.00

Strong support for Ness in the top tiers but it quickly drops below 70 as you go downward. Prediction percentage falls off much slower after that.

9 people fell off the Top 49. Former second place Ace_Bernstein, Advokaiser, Agent_M, Blanksteiner, Cavedweller2000, darkwizard27, FormationZ, hansonchueh and jtye2000 did not have Ness winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place

ZeldaTPLink posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

That Elizabeth pic is awful. Why on earth would you not use a pic that makes her instantly recognizable from the adverts?

Thrall's pic is even worse. The default bracket pic is so better than it...

Yeah but at least we already have a reading on Thrall strength. Pic sabotage on a new character who could have potentially lost in the opening match is stupid. Sure she was very likely to win but if she didn't we'd have just been left with a skewed/questionable reading on her.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time

LeonhartFour posted...

Also, should I start worrying about my Gilgamesh > Booker pick now?

The infallible Kay Aitch bracket has Booker winning that (I have no idea who Booker is and don't remember picking him), so I'd start writing poor Gilgy's obituary.
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sig

Thrall losing badly here.
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When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore