Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1068

#201 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/19/2013 3:44:35 AM | message detail
I just woke up.Okay this isn't even close.But after seeing Jak in his poll,losing only thanks to the biggest rally in the contests I expected that.I thought when making the bracket people wouldn't care about old playstation characters but I was wrong.Oh well there goes my perfect bracket.
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#202 | Lopen | Posted 7/19/2013 3:46:22 AM | message detail
People don't care about old playstation characters but they know who they are, which is enough.

Spyro is going to get killed next round. I seriously don't expect him to break 15%.
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#203 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:48:03 AM | message detail
Sephiroth has a decent chance of putting up a higher percentage in round 2 than round 1.
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#204 | Lopen | Posted 7/19/2013 3:51:22 AM | message detail | (edited)
I think so. Morrigan is the strongest of the four (debatable-- I know some take Midna there but I don't) but Spyro's probably the weakest by enough that Seph crushes harder.
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#205 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:54:21 AM | message detail
I just realized this'll be my first -6 of the contest. Aw yeah for having Clementine > Reyn > Spyro

but only cowards bank apparently
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#206 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/19/2013 3:55:14 AM | message detail
I didn't even realize you get negative points for wrong picks until the 6th match.

I would I would have noticed sooner =/
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#207 | Lopen | Posted 7/19/2013 3:58:34 AM | message detail
I feel like I'm the only one who partially fills out predictions for EXPERT mode. Like this match I only put Spyro down as #1 because I figured the other two were gutter trash and it'd be a crap shoot. Good thing too because gut said Reyn as #2 more than the unappealing looking little girl. I almost always put a pick in but yeah I'd say about 1/3 of matches I've not filled out all three. Has saved me more points than not too!
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#208 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 4:01:08 AM | message detail
I was doing that at first, but then I realized I wasn't going to win anyway, so why not just go all out and pick everything?
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#209 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/19/2013 4:07:42 AM | message detail
How many perfects will be left?I believe Spyro will be the favorite despite having only half the gurus with him.
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#210 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2013 4:13:12 AM | message detail
THE SPYRO/MORRIGAN 2002 REMATCH
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#211 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/19/2013 4:19:13 AM | message detail
And just think, Spyro dominated this match in the night. Imagine how this would have went if the kiddies had been up.
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#212 | Lopen | Posted 7/19/2013 4:24:14 AM | message detail
I have 78 after this match. Fair amount down but it only takes a couple of correctly called upsets to make that up. Especially with the point values doubling each round you just gotta keep kinda close!
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#213 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/19/2013 4:24:29 AM | message detail
Haha, keep dropping Clementine. I want to see Spyro hold two characters below 30%. This would be the best match/contest ever.
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#214 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/19/2013 4:57:28 AM | message detail
I've been doing a lot of banking, though I don't think I'm doing any better/worse than most other people. Considering how wrong I've been so far, though, banking's probably helped me out.

Speaking of being wrong, holy ever-loving s*** does Reyn f***ing god damn suck. He's either going to look god-damn abysmal in the final stats (like, second-weakest overall after Chester), or Spyro's going to break 45% on Sephiroth (or outright win) and Reyn will "only" look like bad fodder.

Most likely answer is Xenoblade has a loyal bunch of voters but absolutely no appeal otherwise. I expect Shulk will get similar percentages to Dunban and Reyn despite his competition being between the two. Then again, I've already been wrong about Xenoblade twice, so yeah.
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#215 | X195 | Posted 7/19/2013 5:16:44 AM | message detail
I'm just a contest noob, so bear with me here, but didn't they put together all of the Guru's opinions in the past? I really liked reading those (unless they're still organized somewhere and I'm just not seeing it).
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#216 | Fr0zoN | Posted 7/19/2013 5:18:49 AM | message detail
I wonder if I will be on the leaderboard after this match? Should be close. Anyway Spyro is a beast. Makes the Crash>Wheatley pick look a bit more realistic as well.
#217 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/19/2013 5:19:53 AM | message detail
So, I wake up expecting a Tharja-Juliet-Tina esque Spyro>Clementine>Reyn and what do I find? Spyro murdering everyone.

My cousin would love this as she loves skylanders I voted spyo just for the memory of she showing me her syro figurine

"This is a skylander. A new game"

"No it's not! That's Spyro the Dragon! This Dragon is older than you!"

Fun times...fun times

But this poll is not exciting
#218 | scaryice | Posted 7/19/2013 5:20:34 AM | message detail
X195 posted...
I'm just a contest noob, so bear with me here, but didn't they put together all of the Guru's opinions in the past? I really liked reading those (unless they're still organized somewhere and I'm just not seeing it).


analysis crew thread
#219 | X195 | Posted 7/19/2013 5:22:48 AM | message detail
scaryice posted...
X195 posted...
I'm just a contest noob, so bear with me here, but didn't they put together all of the Guru's opinions in the past? I really liked reading those (unless they're still organized somewhere and I'm just not seeing it).


analysis crew thread


Thanks.
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#220 | SubDeity | Posted 7/19/2013 5:24:29 AM | message detail
Xenoblade is basically Earthbound without Smash. Not sure why people thought it'd have any strength at all.
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#221 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/19/2013 5:55:34 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yuri Lowell would beat all these Xenoblade characters right? Or at the very least, Lloyd and Kratos would.
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#222 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/19/2013 5:57:27 AM | message detail
Ask yourself this, 31% on Ryu or 19% on Spyro.
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#223 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2013 6:00:02 AM | message detail
So anyone think Spyro has a chance on Morrigan next round?

I would've taken Clementine over Edgeworth, but that was before I knew she would flop.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 18/20 Today's Picks: Clementine and Luigi
#224 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/19/2013 6:01:51 AM | message detail
I wouldn't and I expect it to be almost as lopsided as their previous encounter.
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#225 | quicksilvver | Posted 7/19/2013 6:02:06 AM | message detail
HELL YES SPYRO
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#226 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/19/2013 6:17:45 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
People don't care about old playstation characters but they know who they are, which is enough.


Between the two matches there's been plenty of recognisable characters people could latch on to. I'm not sure what site you think you're on if you believe the average voter doesn't know anything about any of Persona, League of Legends, The Walking Dead or Xenoblade.
Playstation characters are making a surge, like it or not. Maybe they've just entered the nostalgia zone instead of being anti-voted for being too mainstream/casual. It certainly happened for Pikachu for a long time.
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#227 | machinegungeek | Posted 7/19/2013 6:21:00 AM | message detail
^I'm a fairly typical GFaqs voter type and IDK who Reyn and Clementine are w/o looking at their descriptions. Sure I recognize their games, but I don't recognize their names or images. Spyro is old and has recognizable image. No way old Sony is surging. FFVII is proof of that.


Also, we now have Spyro at 11337 votes and Reyn at 13.37%. Beautiful.
#228 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/19/2013 6:24:40 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
So anyone think Spyro has a chance on Morrigan next round?

I would've taken Clementine over Edgeworth, but that was before I knew she would flop.


Personally, no. I don't see Spyro getting second on next round. Even if he managed to get a good result here, the competition was awful.
#229 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/19/2013 6:32:44 AM | message detail | (edited)
--Smurf-- posted...
Lopen posted...
People don't care about old playstation characters but they know who they are, which is enough.

I'm not sure what site you think you're on if you believe the average voter doesn't know anything about any of Persona, League of Legends, The Walking Dead or Xenoblade.


I couldn't tell you one iota about characters from League of Legends, The Walking Dead or Xenoblade. My Persona knowledge is strictly limited to Persona 3 from when my wife played it. Persona characters aside, I could not have told you which game any of those characters came from without being told.

I think you're overselling the above. LoL is the only one of the above which I problably live under a rock about.

Xenoblade is well known but you actually have to play the game to know the characters which apparently most people have not.
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#230 | hawk533 | Posted 7/19/2013 6:40:29 AM | message detail
Wow, what a surprisingly not close match.

At one point I had switched my expert pick to Clem > Spyro, but at some point I switched it back. Definitely glad I did. Also feeling a lot better about that Crash pick now.

Man, this division is going to delude me into feeling good about my bracket. And then we're going to get to Division 6 where for some reason I picked Gilgamesh and Lu Bu.
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Bracket Pts: 19/20 Expert Pts: 76
Today's Picks: Spyro > Clementine & Luigi > Balthier
#231 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2013 6:45:48 AM | message detail
Match XXII: (2) Luigi vs. (17) Balthier Bunansa vs. (26) Jade

Previous Contest

Luigi – 2010
65.70% against Meta Knight
59.59% against Amaterasu
64.84% against Weighted Companion Cube
28.87% against Link

Balthier Bunansa – 2010
31.03% against Ryu

Jade – 2006
24.11% against Ada Wong

Analysis

We have three characters with three different tiers of strength. While Luigi will have no problem winning this match his performance will be watched closely as he has a big match against Big Boss. He will need to look as impressive as possible as Ness will likely be in that match LFF him.

Personally I feel Balthier is going to be weaker this contest, but he is lucky enough to be up against one of the weakest returning characters. Getting in due to the female bracket she was tripled by Ada Wong who at best is high fodder and with nothing new since that contest one can only imagine what her strength has been reduced to.

I see Luigi breaking 60%, especially if Jade turns out to be as weak as she was back in 2006. Balthier should have no problem crushing Jade like Ada Wong did back then. While she will not be the weakest character of the bracket she will be among them.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Luigi > Balthier Bunansa and Jade

charmander6000’s Prediction: Luigi – 63.45%, Balthier Bunansa – 28.94%, Jade – 7.61%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 18/20 Today's Picks: Clementine and Luigi
#232 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/19/2013 6:48:43 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Holy crap, I just noticed the Guru was split between Spyro and Clementine! Looks like my policy of "If I've never heard of this character they're probably not gonna win" pays off yet again.


"why was this match debated, Spyro was the obvious choice"


Spyro was such an obvious choice that I didn't bother posting about it. If I'd bothered to look at the Guru picks for this match, I would have made a bigger point of talking about it.
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#233 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/19/2013 6:49:27 AM | message detail
Your comparisons to Ada reminded me of how Ada beat Balthier both times

Good ole FF12 strength
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#234 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/19/2013 6:50:21 AM | message detail
Ada beat Balthier despite being in a poll with two other Capcom characters, including Dante.
#235 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/19/2013 6:51:28 AM | message detail
why did I say including Dante i'm stupid

why can't low karma accounts edit posts this is stupid
#236 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/19/2013 6:58:55 AM | message detail
--Smurf-- posted...
Lopen posted...
People don't care about old playstation characters but they know who they are, which is enough.


Between the two matches there's been plenty of recognisable characters people could latch on to. I'm not sure what site you think you're on if you believe the average voter doesn't know anything about any of Persona, League of Legends, The Walking Dead or Xenoblade.
Playstation characters are making a surge, like it or not. Maybe they've just entered the nostalgia zone instead of being anti-voted for being too mainstream/casual. It certainly happened for Pikachu for a long time.


Of those games I've only played LoL, and that was long before Draven was added. You need to approach these polls with common sense. Xenoblade is the new Tales, a game that in the isolation of Board 8 seems really popular, but most people that visit the site proper have never heard of.

Sony macots always seemed so weak because they were put up against mainstream recognizable characters, but match them against characters from a game with <10% playrate on the site, and its a no-brainer.
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#237 | hawk533 | Posted 7/19/2013 7:26:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Holy crap, I just noticed the Guru was split between Spyro and Clementine! Looks like my policy of "If I've never heard of this character they're probably not gonna win" pays off yet again.


"why was this match debated, Spyro was the obvious choice"


Spyro was such an obvious choice that I didn't bother posting about it. If I'd bothered to look at the Guru picks for this match, I would have made a bigger point of talking about it.

Spyro was not an obvious choice. Maybe a gut-feeling choice, but the Walking Dead was a well-liked game that was based off a popular TV series.

The only reason I went with Spyro was because I didn't think adventure game characters did particularly well in these contests (see Guybrush). I think very few people were comfortable with their pick this match before it began. And Karma's post was sarcasm.
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Bracket Pts: 19/20 Expert Pts: 76
Today's Picks: Spyro > Clementine & Luigi > Balthier
#238 | special_sauce | Posted 7/19/2013 7:26:30 AM | message detail
Clementine wasn't in the TV series though. I don't think a huge number of people know who she is. Everyone knows Spyro.
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#239 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/19/2013 7:49:55 AM | message detail
special_sauce posted...
Clementine wasn't in the TV series though. I don't think a huge number of people know who she is. Everyone knows Spyro.


Just because everyone knows who Spyro is doesn't mean that anyone likes him or will vote for him. Everyone knew who he was in 2002 and not so many people knew Morrigan. He still got doubled. In a 4-way in 2007, where he once again was arguably the most well-known character of his 4-pack (maybe more people heard of Leon Kennedy but unlikely, Spyro was pretty much a household name) and he got his tail handed to him. Recognizability does not translate to popularity. Spyro was pretty much our proof of that in the past. So while "common sense" might have dictated an easy win for Spyro here, actual knowledge of the contests should have made everyone very hesitant of that fact.
#240 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 7:57:09 AM | message detail
Just for the record, if you assume Spyro has the same strength level as in 2007, Clementine is on Agent J's level while Reyn is a huge step below every single character from the 2007 bracket.
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#241 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/19/2013 8:18:56 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Just for the record, if you assume Spyro has the same strength level as in 2007, Clementine is on Agent J's level while Reyn is a huge step below every single character from the 2007 bracket.


I'll do you one better.

Tanner is expected to get 20.38% on 2007 Spyro.

Reyn has 18.97% on Spyro right now.
#242 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/19/2013 8:21:37 AM | message detail
Man, Reyn is only worth a couple Chesters. Who would have thought!
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#243 | Xuxon | Posted 7/19/2013 8:33:20 AM | message detail
it should have been pretty obvious Spyro's not as pathetic as 2007 stats say. that number doesn't even make any sense. somehow "lol xstats" comes up with 8.5, but using the 4-way calculator and some estimates for Leon, Vivi and Ridley, Spyro ends up around 10-11.

you can "lol 2002 stats" all you want but they always made more sense for this matchup.
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#244 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/19/2013 8:36:26 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
why can't low karma accounts edit posts this is stupid


Low karma-accounts can. FranzyvonKarma-accounts can't.
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#245 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2013 8:43:26 AM | message detail
Yeah, Spyro's 2007 stats are likely not true now, Xenoblade may be weak, but they are not Tanner weak.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 18/20 Today's Picks: Clementine and Luigi
#246 | Achromatic | Posted 7/19/2013 8:48:26 AM | message detail
Yeah we had no real basis for Clementine here, obviously should have went with Spyro here in hindsight but eh, for a one pointer I don't mind being wrong on a new IP. Good for Spyro, finally getting his win.
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#247 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/19/2013 8:49:42 AM | message detail
Based on the current update right now, Sephiroth has to get 73.50% on Spyro in order to push Reyn down to 10% against him.
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#248 | Dilated Chemist (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/19/2013 8:50:47 AM | message detail
What a horrible way to lose my perfect bracket. Oh well.
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#249 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/19/2013 8:58:39 AM | message detail
YEAR OF LUIGI! 70%+ here we go!
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#250 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/19/2013 8:59:26 AM | message detail
Luigi crushing fodder and fodder-er
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 18/20 Today's Picks: Clementine and Luigi