Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1068

#151 | scaryice | Posted 7/18/2013 10:21:09 PM | message detail
VideoboysaysCube posted...
Speaking of characters that haven't made it in. Where the heck is Majora?


Link
Zelda
Ganon
Tingle
Midna
Groose
Epona

Clearly that isn't enough Zelda characters...
#152 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/18/2013 10:25:12 PM | message detail
It's not - I completely forgot to rally for the Great Deku Tree! Really regret it now with all the winnable matches he could've drawn.
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#153 | nkansas13 | Posted 7/18/2013 10:33:04 PM | message detail
Well, Spyro's doing better than Vincent, Barrett, and Aerith with a terrible picture on the homepage. What is up with his mouth?
Anyway, time for Spyro v. Morrigan, round two!
#154 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 10:33:09 PM | message detail
Only three Zelda characters are locks to get in every contest. Midna has been a regular for a while now, but I think she could start to slip out of brackets soon. Epona is a one-shot deal who I doubt gets in again (with regularity), Tingle is a joke who can't win, and Groose is a joke who hit the jackpot with his match. Zelda is an enormous series that really doesn't have enormous bracket representation. Majora is an extremely cool entry that could do exciting things; off the top of my head, he/it's probably the best new Zelda entrant we could get in.

Just don't give him final boss match pics. MASK AND NOTHING BUT THE MASK.
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#155 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/18/2013 10:33:14 PM | message detail
Throw in Navi for good measure.
#156 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 10:37:06 PM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
Well, Spyro's doing better than Vincent, Barrett, and Aerith with a terrible picture on the homepage. What is up with his mouth?
Anyway, time for Spyro v. Morrigan, round two!


Thats one of Spyro's most known images, get out of here with this non-sense.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 17/20 pts | Expert Challenge: 61/120
NP: Spyro the Dragon > Clementine > Reyn
#157 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 10:40:56 PM | message detail
This does indeed give me confidence about taking Mr. Game and Watch in my bracket. One theory I had about the contest while making my bracket was "Walking Dead characters are gonna bomb".

Of course another one was "Tharja will lose Marth will win because Fire Emblem is weird" and that didn't turn out so good
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 17/20 pts | Expert Challenge: 61/120
NP: Spyro the Dragon > Clementine > Reyn
#158 | Sorozone | Posted 7/18/2013 10:46:30 PM | message detail
#159 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/18/2013 10:48:12 PM | message detail
It would shock me if Navi wasn't the next new Zelda character to get in.
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#160 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/18/2013 11:11:16 PM | message detail
Let's hear all this "I knew x character would win" BEFORE the match starts and not an hour after it, eh?
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#161 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/18/2013 11:43:51 PM | message detail
hahahahahahahaahaha

http://emotibot.net/pix/6330.png
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#162 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 11:52:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
I just now realize we're getting Morrigan vs. Spyro 2

I love you bacon
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#163 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/18/2013 11:53:31 PM | message detail
I'm going to try and get Shades Spyro into his R2 match pic

Such a king
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#164 | anondum | Posted 7/18/2013 11:54:47 PM | message detail
I feel like reyn vs chester would be depressingly close
#165 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:55:11 PM | message detail
For some reason most of Zelda nominations goes to Link
Happy Mask Salesman is not so happy anymore

What I wonder though,is how people choose what Pokemon to nominate
I believe that at least half of the 649 Pokemon got at least 1 nomination,with more popular were on the border of making it in (Bulbasaur,Lucario,Blastoise)
#166 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 11:55:20 PM | message detail
I wanna remake this pic with modern technology:

http://i.imgur.com/pu9SnHq.jpg

oh and sephiroth can be there too i guess
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#167 | Colegreen_c12 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:58:57 PM | message detail
For some reason, I decided TWD was going to bomb and switched my bracket to spyro, but completely neglected the lee everett match. =(
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#168 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 11:59:05 PM | message detail
We literally are going to be able to make "just wait til the kiddies wake up" AND "TJF" jokes as a throwback to their origins in 2002

bacon really did set this whole contest up as a tribute to contest history
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#169 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 12:01:01 AM | message detail
Guys, Spyro is breaking 80% on Reyn.

SPYRO is quadrupling someone. He had never beaten anyone in a contest before, and now he's quadrupling someone! He also has 64% on Clementine just FYI.
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#170 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/19/2013 12:02:34 AM | message detail
2010- The rise of old Square
2013- The rise of old Sony

Quite confident in Crash winning his match or at the very least doing well in it.
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#171 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/19/2013 12:02:55 AM | message detail
It actually is weird that Spyro/Clementine was a 50/50 in the Guru while Lee was so heavily favored over GW. Clementine received much more praise and talk from people, so there's not much basis to assume Lee would be stronger than her despite his status as the main character. There is PLENTY of reason to believe that GW would mop the floor with Spyro, on the other hand. Those Guru numbers just don't make sense, and I've said since the start that Lee was the one board-favored pick which made me scratch my head most.
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#172 | nkansas13 | Posted 7/19/2013 12:04:15 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
bacon really did set this whole contest up as a tribute to contest history

Still waiting for a Mario/Sonic match. The two still haven't battled in 1v1 format.
#173 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2013 12:15:47 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Holy crap, I just noticed the Guru was split between Spyro and Clementine! Looks like my policy of "If I've never heard of this character they're probably not gonna win" pays off yet again.


"why was this match debated, Spyro was the obvious choice"
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#174 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/19/2013 12:16:13 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Reyn is doing so badly that it's managing to make Vincent look even worse. At this rate, Reyn may end up near Dunban's percentage against THIS competition.


Final Fantasy manages to look bad even when it's not in a match. Amazing...


Lol
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#175 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 12:20:43 AM | message detail
Okay guys, Elizabeth/Poison/Thrall looks like a huge weakling match now. Poison's from games that most of the site doesn't care for. Elizabeth is (far?) more prominent in her game than Poison and Thrall are in theirs, but characters from super-new games have been bombing left and right. Thrall sticks out like a sore thumb, but he's an ensemble character from a game that disappointed in GOTD.

What a match. I think I'm seriously still siding with Elizabeth there.
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#176 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2013 12:21:20 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Reyn is doing so badly that it's managing to make Vincent look even worse. At this rate, Reyn may end up near Dunban's percentage against THIS competition.


The Mewtwo > Vincent pick once again vindicated
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#177 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 12:28:24 AM | message detail
Vincent could conceivably be the new Magus by the time this is all said and done.

To be fair however, he has never done anything particularly notable aside from beating Crono in a 4-way contest, and then he lost the rematch a year later (there was also him surprising the board with his strength a lot in his contest debut, but nothing he did there would be considered notable today - compare this to something like Mario beating Cloud which still stands as a huge accomplishment for Mario). So just as Magus was overrated due to one random overperformance, so Vincent was overrated due to something he did in a not-so legitimate format.

If we're going to say "lol 4-ways", then all credit Vincent had is gone because literally the only thing notable he's ever done was a result of that format.
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#178 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/19/2013 12:34:26 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
If we're going to say "lol 4-ways", then all credit Vincent had is gone because literally the only thing notable he's ever done was a result of that format.

I guess beating Squall, Dante and Ganondorf and almost beating Sonic just isn't that notable.

Unless by "notable" you really mean "incredible", in which case what exactly is a notable Non-N9 character?
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#179 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/19/2013 12:34:32 AM | message detail
Vincent beat Squall and Ganondorf and got 48% on Sonic 1-on-1.
You lose!
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#180 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2013 12:37:43 AM | message detail
People, now's not the time to be perfectly logical here, not when my bracket needs this
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#181 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/19/2013 12:42:57 AM | message detail
So about that Zelda/Lightning/Charizard match...

http://squareportal.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/ywyviyc.jpg
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#182 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/19/2013 12:47:12 AM | message detail
Still keeping up perfect bracket,but I will probably lose it thanks to
N>Bayonetta
Proto Man>Ike
Shulk>Altair (this one is stupid I don't know what I was thinking,probably seeding..)
Kefka>Zack(again,what was I thinking)
Ridley>Zidane
Lee Everett>Game & Watch(I HATE YOU 3 SEED,WHY...even though it's 55-45% in Guru votes for Lee)
Pac Man>Nathan (...)
Neku>Catherine
Tails>Ezio(why do I overestimate Sonic characters? why)
L Block>Teemo
MC>Yuna (Yeah I forgot how much this site hates Halo and MC)
Tidus>Missingno (obviously misclick,as I have Missingno in my expert bracket)
Red Bird>Jill
Claptrap>WCC
Lyndis>? Block

One less bracket
But you know what? those without comment I actually still believe in
And it made me wonder,just how much stronger is Zero than Proto Man? I mean,if it was Zero vs Ike,would it have been debateable?
#183 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/19/2013 12:57:15 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Vincent beat Squall and Ganondorf and got 48% on Sonic 1-on-1.
You lose!


To be fair though, that was 2006 Sonic, pre-KH2 Squall, and yeah, beating Ganondorf is actually worthwhile, admittedly.
#184 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 1:06:15 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Vincent beat Squall and Ganondorf and got 48% on Sonic 1-on-1.
You lose!


What I'm saying is that aside from his contest debut, Vincent has never been able to pull off a particularly shocking result save for upsetting Crono in lol 4-ways. His match against Ganondorf in 2006 is the only piece of evidence against this, and I dismissed it because A) it was Round 1 (bad idea) and B) we'd expect it now.

I thought the whole idea with Vincent is that he was a potential Noble Nine breaker, so beating Squall and especially Ganondorf are not notable accomplishments for such a character. Nowadays that's simply what we'd expect of him. This is comparable to how Magus was seen as a potential Noble Nine breaker before his random loss to Knuckles.

Vincent's only "notable" feats are things that we'd expect him to do nowadays without problem, thus they aren't really notable. His win over Crono is notable because who the heck knows if he'd win in a rematch?
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#185 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/19/2013 1:07:01 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Vincent beat Squall and Ganondorf and got 48% on Sonic 1-on-1.
You lose!


To be fair though, that was 2006 Sonic, pre-KH2 Squall, and yeah, beating Ganondorf is actually worthwhile, admittedly.

What's so bad about 2006 Sonic? That year was the first and so far only time he actually beat a Noble Niner.
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#186 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 7/19/2013 1:22:23 AM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
What's so bad about 2006 Sonic?

It's right there in his name.
#187 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/19/2013 1:24:13 AM | message detail
Was the contest before Sonic 2006 or after
#188 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/19/2013 1:25:22 AM | message detail
Aw yeah Reyn at 13.37%

NewCastlEmperor posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
What's so bad about 2006 Sonic?

It's right there in his name.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2006 didn't even come out until after the contest, unless I'm missing something big.
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#189 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 1:26:21 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Was the contest before Sonic 2006 or after


Sonic '06 was released in November IIRC.
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#190 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 7/19/2013 1:30:00 AM | message detail | (edited)
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Sonic the Hedgehog 2006 didn't even come out until after the contest, unless I'm missing something big.

Sonic Genesis on the GBA, the single most pathetic excuse of a port ever made.

Even then, Sonic Heroes and Shadow The Hedgehog were arleady smearing his reputation.
#191 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/19/2013 1:44:20 AM | message detail
NewCastlEmperor posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Sonic the Hedgehog 2006 didn't even come out until after the contest, unless I'm missing something big.

Sonic Genesis on the GBA, the single most pathetic excuse of a port ever made.

Even then, Sonic Heroes and Shadow The Hedgehog were arleady smearing his reputation.

Sonic Genesis didn't come out until after the contest either -_-

The point is that Sonic didn't do any worse in 2006 than 2005.
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#192 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:19:14 AM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Edgeworth would probably be blowing out this poll.


Just thinking about this makes me upset. We could have MILES EDGEWORTH winning a match. Instead we get Spyro.

But I knew this was coming after Barret and Dunban. I just had to go down with the sinking ship on picking against Spyro. Makes me feel better about Crash > Wheatley, if nothing else.

Also, this match makes Vincent's showing the other day look even worse. Dunban gets 16.54% on Vincent, and Reyn gets 19.10% on Spyro as of right now. This could mean FFVII anti-voting is very real, Dunban is just a lot stronger than Reyn, or Spyro is a Noble Nine killer now.

Your guess is as good as mine.
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#193 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:22:01 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
I still have faith in Wheatley though...the fact that his character design looks GLaDOS should help substantially.


GlaDOS being terribly unphotogenic is one of her biggest problems. I don't expect being just a weird robot eyeball thing to be an appealing image for voters when it comes to Wheatley.
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#194 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/19/2013 3:26:29 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
MegatokyoEd posted...
Edgeworth would probably be blowing out this poll.


Just thinking about this makes me upset. We could have MILES EDGEWORTH winning a match. Instead we get Spyro.

But I knew this was coming after Barret and Dunban. I just had to go down with the sinking ship on picking against Spyro. Makes me feel better about Crash > Wheatley, if nothing else.

Also, this match makes Vincent's showing the other day look even worse. Dunban gets 16.54% on Vincent, and Reyn gets 19.10% on Spyro as of right now. This could mean FFVII anti-voting is very real, Dunban is just a lot stronger than Reyn, or Spyro is a Noble Nine killer now.

Your guess is as good as mine.


Don't forgot that Dunban was also suffering sff overlap while Reyn is the only rpg character in the poll.
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#195 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:27:32 AM | message detail
Dunban suffering overlap makes Vincent look worse! That would mean Dunban indirectly is stronger than that.
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#196 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 3:28:48 AM | message detail
Assuming that Dunban and Reyn are equal, how much does Vincent get on Spyro?
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#197 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:37:44 AM | message detail
Gotta catch up on trend charts!

Last night's:

Time | Sephy | Midna | Mac | Votes
0:05 | 47.74% | 26.75% | 25.51% | 486
1:00 | 52.04% | 26.81% | 21.16% | 5625
2:00 | 56.51% | 25.11% | 18.38% | 3286
3:00 | 58.13% | 24.30% | 17.57% | 2424
4:00 | 59.90% | 23.57% | 16.54% | 1935
5:00 | 57.60% | 24.95% | 17.45% | 1559
6:00 | 60.59% | 25.12% | 14.30% | 1497
7:00 | 60.09% | 24.52% | 15.39% | 1611
8:00 | 58.90% | 24.39% | 16.71% | 1939
9:00 | 60.52% | 22.66% | 16.82% | 1920
10:00 | 57.58% | 23.52% | 18.90% | 2190
11:00 | 58.93% | 22.97% | 18.09% | 2233
12:00 | 59.24% | 22.63% | 18.13% | 1980

Very rare for two characters to have the same best hour, but not entirely surprising since it's two Nintendo characters against Sephiroth. Sephy manages a few 60%+ hours. Midna actually looked stronger at night than with the morning vote, as Mac actually seemed to recover a bit at her expense during that timeframe.

X-Stats:

Sephiroth – 50.00%
Midna – 29.96%
Little Mac – 23.96%

Sephiroth's prediction percentage was 91.37%
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#198 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2013 3:40:58 AM | message detail
Midna being a night-oriented character makes sense lol.

By the way, Spyro got 20.15% on Leon last time we saw him. I guess we can say that he gets to quadruple someone before getting quadrupled himself, haha.
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#199 | Lopen | Posted 7/19/2013 3:41:06 AM | message detail
Yeah I've been really disappointed who's been getting the trash packs. Watching Mewtwo put up 80% was amusing but watching say, KOS-MOS put up 75% would've been so much funnier. And this match, Spyro winning a match who cares. So many weak characters that would be more satisfying.
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#200 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/19/2013 3:43:01 AM | message detail
And the trend chart from the day match:

Time | Morrigan | Edgey | Agent | Votes
0:05 | 48.22% | 30.86% | 20.92% | 674
1:00 | 47.08% | 31.12% | 21.80% | 4611
2:00 | 45.81% | 30.53% | 23.67% | 3672
3:00 | 48.40% | 27.81% | 23.79% | 3153
4:00 | 45.29% | 29.39% | 25.32% | 2800
5:00 | 49.74% | 26.74% | 23.52% | 2704
6:00 | 48.25% | 26.80% | 24.95% | 2653
7:00 | 48.29% | 27.44% | 24.27% | 2431
8:00 | 48.09% | 27.36% | 24.55% | 2098
9:00 | 48.94% | 26.30% | 24.75% | 1935
10:00 | 51.36% | 26.34% | 22.30% | 1803
11:00 | 51.56% | 25.78% | 22.67% | 1672
12:00 | 50.86% | 26.58% | 22.56% | 1569

Edgey starts off strong out of the gate and drops off after a couple hours as expected, but there isn't a lot of disparity between his day and night vote. Morrigan increases noticeably come night time, mostly at Agent 47's expense, who failed to win a single hour against Edgeworth.

X-Stats:

Morrigan Aensland – 50.00%
Miles Edgeworth – 36.90%
Agent 47 – 32.90%

Morrigan's prediction percentage was 45.15%

Probably enough to be the overall favorite, but this was one of those instances where the board outperforms the casual. Of course, there's a good chance the casuals return the favor with this match, as I expect Spyro's prediction percentage to be pretty high, at least compared to the board, at any rate.
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