Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1067

#401 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 11:26:54 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
catgirl lightning please


you saw that piece too huh
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#402 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:27:30 AM | message detail
If I get next match right (Spyro) then I will be perfect until Bayonetta/N match
I believe in Pokemon,but we don't actually know the power of Gen 5 aside from
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4958
So N power...really is unknown that i'm shocked so many people picked Bayonetta like it's so obvious
#403 | tgs2 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:50:34 AM | message detail
If Lucario didn't bomb hard while being the most hyped gen 4 character plus being in brawl, then N might have had more arguments against Bayonetta.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3247
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3277

N has much less going for him, and Bayonetta is likely stronger than 2008 Isaac by a good margin.
#404 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/18/2013 11:52:26 AM | message detail
Man, I forgot to account for ultra low vote levels! I'm blaming Edgeworth's surprise 'strength' on that. I'm like, 90% sure that if votals doubled for this match 47 would have a comfortable multi-thousands lead (let's not talk about Morrigan). How dumb of me to forget about votals when doing my expert challenge predix.
#405 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:54:30 AM | message detail
Outside of a few delusional Edgeworth fans, there really wasn't any debate for this match. Really clear cut that Morrigan would win this match.
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#406 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/18/2013 11:58:26 AM | message detail
N has much less going for him, and Bayonetta is likely stronger than 2008 Isaac by a good margin.

Why?
Golden Sun looks a hell of a lot more proven to me at this point than Bayonetta!
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#407 | hawk533 | Posted 7/18/2013 12:09:19 PM | message detail
Looking at the rest of the first round today, I was wondering when we're going to lose our last perfect bracket.

Based on how many we have left at this point, I'm thinking it's either Booker v Gilgamesh v Caim or Groose v Lu Bu v Yoshimitsu.
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Bracket Pts: 19/20 Expert Pts: 76
Today's Picks: Spyro > Reyn & Luigi > Balthier
#408 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/18/2013 12:10:31 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
N has much less going for him, and Bayonetta is likely stronger than 2008 Isaac by a good margin.

Why?
Golden Sun looks a hell of a lot more proven to me at this point than Bayonetta!


That's because Bayonetta's sole contest 'outing' was before her game was released.
#409 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/18/2013 12:12:20 PM | message detail
Bayonetta 2 hype should be enough to win that match.
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Bracket score: 18 / Expert score: 90
#410 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/18/2013 1:52:35 PM | message detail
Ha, way to go, Edgey. I should've remembered that he's never finished last in a multi-way.
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#411 | WhiteLens | Posted 7/18/2013 1:55:32 PM | message detail
Man, if only I didn't forget to change my expert picks shortly after Phoenix's match.
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#412 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/18/2013 2:22:28 PM | message detail
So this is the second match in a row that I didn't nail because I underestimated Ace Attorney characters (or overestimated their competition). I'm fine with that.

Looking at Jak, I think Spyro can pull this off, but if it's Clementine time instead that would show good things for Lee Everett. Xenoblade is probably going to act like Tales of Symphonia in that it's a strong game with weak characters.
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#413 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 2:24:59 PM | message detail
Do you guys think anything would change if we replaced Reyn with Chie from the Draven/Jak match.
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#414 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/18/2013 2:26:23 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Pretty sure Reyn will be 3rd though. Going with bank-bank-Reyn in my Expert. 1 single point FTW!


I originally have Clem-Spyro-Reyn, but now I'm considering the idea of Clem-bank-Reyn. With Clem-bank-Reyn, if I get Clem right and Reyn wrong, I still get 2 points. If I get Clem wrong and Reyn right, I get -2 points instead. Getting both right will get me 4 points.
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#415 | Sorozone | Posted 7/18/2013 2:29:15 PM | message detail
I'm more surprised at how people are just completely throwing Reyn out the window. Dunban performed badly, but he had respectable performances, percentage wise throughout most of Europe. Where he probably got severely SFFed by superior competition in the JRPG realm, and the Xeno realm.

Spyro is garbage, and Clementine is a complete unknown.

I get that his chances are low, I'm just surprised people are just completely ruling him out.
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#416 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 2:30:51 PM | message detail
Reyn is so dumb that he'll probably be able to meme his way to a win or something.
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#417 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 2:31:27 PM | message detail
I'm not discounting Reyn either. Dunban got worked, but he was up against two other Japanese RPG characters, both of which were much more own. Hell, one was FFVII to soak up the lion's share of votals, and the other was a well known non-FF RPG character to attract the anti-FFVII crowd. Dunban had very, very little to work with. Reyn has an entirely different set of circumstances.
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#418 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/18/2013 2:31:59 PM | message detail
I think Reyn has to be stronger than Dunban to have a chance to get 2nd place tomorrow.
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#419 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 2:34:08 PM | message detail
Xenoblade power is complete mystery I don't understand
Being an RPG I believe the characters are good,and the game itself was strong
And it's not like Starcraft or something that people might like the game and not care about it's characters
So I really don't get why a strong RPG game has such weak characters
#420 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/18/2013 2:37:20 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
the game itself was strong


This is the flaw in your comments. It nearly won GotY, yes, but it was in one of the weakest years ever.
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#421 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 2:38:01 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
the game itself was strong


This is the flaw in your comments. It nearly won GotY, yes, but it was in one of the weakest years ever.


It beat Pokemon Black and White 2
This is all that matters
#422 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 2:38:29 PM | message detail
No it's not. >_>
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#423 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/18/2013 2:39:14 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
No it's not. >_>


Technically, yes it is!

It nearly lost to Black/White 2, which shows that it's weak!
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#424 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/18/2013 2:42:13 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure that a good portion of Xenoblade's votes in the GOTY poll didn't even play it.
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#425 | LeonhartFone | Posted 7/18/2013 2:51:43 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Do you guys think anything would change if we replaced Reyn with Chie from the Draven/Jak match.


I'd take Chie in a heartbeat.

Probably still going with Reyn but this is a match about who is the least terrible. This is probably the weakest match in the content.
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#426 | Achromatic | Posted 7/18/2013 2:54:27 PM | message detail
LeonhartFone posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Do you guys think anything would change if we replaced Reyn with Chie from the Draven/Jak match.


I'd take Chie in a heartbeat.

Probably still going with Reyn but this is a match about who is the least terrible. This is probably the weakest match in the content.


(8) Groose
(11) Lu Bu
(20) Yoshimitsu
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#427 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/18/2013 2:55:48 PM | message detail
Clearly, Lu Bu will ride the hype of DW8 to victory
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#428 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 2:56:57 PM | message detail
Lu Bu has no shot against The Groose.
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#429 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/18/2013 2:57:09 PM | message detail
I took Yoshimitsu in that match and regret it.
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#430 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/18/2013 3:00:02 PM | message detail
Yoshimitsu all the way man
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#431 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 3:07:35 PM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
I'm more surprised at how people are just completely throwing Reyn out the window. Dunban performed badly, but he had respectable performances, percentage wise throughout most of Europe. Where he probably got severely SFFed by superior competition in the JRPG realm, and the Xeno realm.

Spyro is garbage, and Clementine is a complete unknown.

I get that his chances are low, I'm just surprised people are just completely ruling him out.


I literally had no idea who Reyn was until I looked him up just so I could write my guest analysis with a straight face, and I felt exactly the opposite way when I found out who he was. People are seriously giving this guy a chance against Spyro and even Clementine?
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#432 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 3:11:21 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I took Yoshimitsu in that match and regret it.


I took Yoshimitsu as well, so that I could have an upset special and because the match just looks like Midna vs. Scorpion all over again.

I haven't even heard much about Groose aside from his fans, while Midna has an entire Wikipedia article. Also I somehow feel that Yoshimitsu could benefit from a recognizability factor, though maybe that's because I got a lot of secondhand exposure to Tekken and Soulcalibur when I was younger.
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#433 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 3:19:22 PM | message detail
Goodnight Board 8
I want to see Spyro>Clementine>Reyn when I wake up
#434 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/18/2013 3:21:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah my thinking with Yoshimitsu was some sort of recognizability factor. It's probably not worth much, but it's a terrible match quality-wise so you never know.
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#435 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/18/2013 3:22:26 PM | message detail
Would KOS-MOS triple Spyro? Because it she can, maybe Reyn actually has a chance, especially if Dunban actually did end up getting Xeno-SFF'd.
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#436 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/18/2013 3:33:18 PM | message detail
LOL people think Bayonetta is in danger of losing to N.

It won't be close.
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#437 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 3:36:32 PM | message detail
Where are the stats for the previous match?Okay since Sephiroth was a 1 seed his prediction percentage must be huge but still.
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#438 | Xuxon | Posted 7/18/2013 3:37:06 PM | message detail
From: Achromatic | Posted: 7/18/2013 5:54:27 PM | #426
LeonhartFone posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Do you guys think anything would change if we replaced Reyn with Chie from the Draven/Jak match.


I'd take Chie in a heartbeat.

Probably still going with Reyn but this is a match about who is the least terrible. This is probably the weakest match in the content.


(8) Groose
(11) Lu Bu
(20) Yoshimitsu

Groose would definitely beat anyone in Spyro's match. Tharja's pack might be weaker, though.
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#439 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2013 3:48:07 PM | message detail
Yeah Tharja's group is the weakest, only other group that may be weaker is Neku's
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#440 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/18/2013 3:48:51 PM | message detail
I feel super duper confident that Yoshimitsu is gonna job now. He had the same arguments as Jigglypuff for being strong, and we saw how well that went. The question is if Lu Bu will be worth a damn, and whether Groose will be able to use the 'idk votes nintendo' votebase to win.
#441 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/18/2013 3:52:28 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Yeah Tharja's group is the weakest, only other group that may be weaker is Neku's

Even then, I would take any of Neku, Vaas and Catherine to win in Tharja's group.
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#442 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 4:07:36 PM | message detail
I have Reyn, N & Yoshimitsu

2-1?
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#443 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 4:08:59 PM | message detail
Oh, and I have Neku. KH3DDD
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#444 | Sorozone | Posted 7/18/2013 4:09:23 PM | message detail
Out of those, Reyn honestly has the best chance to win his match.

I just don't see it happening for N or Yoshimitu after Jigglypuff completely bombed(and the fact no one cares about trainers outside of Red and Blue), and Nightmare looked abysmal.
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#445 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 4:10:38 PM | message detail
Sypro, Bayonetta, Groose

Who is still perfect and has this?
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#446 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 4:11:41 PM | message detail
I also have Robotnik over Ike & Protoman.

I'll be voting for Protoman though.
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#447 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 4:12:27 PM | message detail
Robotnik needs the new Smash lol
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#448 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 4:16:28 PM | message detail
So the next match is completely toss-up then?I see that 108 Gurus have Spyro and 107 Clementine.So the closest match so far and anything happens right?
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#449 | Sorozone | Posted 7/18/2013 4:17:23 PM | message detail
Everything points to it being close.

Which ultimately someone will probably run away with it.
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#450 | t_kizzle | Posted 7/18/2013 4:57:46 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Sypro, Bayonetta, Groose

Who is still perfect and has this?


I do, and I'm reasonably confident we'll still be perfect after those matches, it's the Expert Challenge giving me a headache.

I will say I could buy arguments for Clem/Reyn or Yoshimitsu but I think anyone taking N over Bayonetta is either unreasonably expecting her to be total trash or isn't super-knowledgable about the Pokemon fanbase. Anything after Gen. 1 takes a big dip in strength, to say nothing of a human character from the 5th gen.