Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1067

#351 | redrocket | Posted 7/18/2013 9:32:22 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
No. Says the oracle predictions where the absolutely overwhelming favorite is Morrigan and not even in a close fashion.


Debatable matches have *never* stopped the rampant groupthink of this board, ever.
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So what exactly defines a debatable match then? One that you get wrong?
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It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest
#352 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/18/2013 9:33:16 AM | message detail
hawk533 posted...
Kind of wishing I hadn't listened and changed to Morrigan > 47. Should have banked.

Still, I wonder if we're going to see a big percentage change between Edgeworth and 47 because those 2 should probably be much closer than this.


Yes, other than that, the match is mostly playing out how I thought. Morrigan around the mid-40s, while Edge squeaks past 47
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Now Awaiting:
Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls
#353 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 9:33:48 AM | message detail
I hope 47 starts cutting soon.

Or shooting.
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#354 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 9:34:02 AM | message detail
Next match is the first match i'm worrying about the first place
Probably Spyro since he is the most known but.
1.I have no idea about The Walking Dead popularity
2.Xenoblade as a game was too damn strong in the games contest but Dunban was pretty weak
And I have no idea if Reyn>Dunban as I have not played the game and I don't know who is more popular (maybe one of them is even the main character,I dunno)
3.Is Skylanders part of the Spyro franchise? because I think Skylanders is popular
#355 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 9:35:24 AM | message detail
Man, if I hadn't of changed my bracket at the last minute I'd still have a perfect. But I just had to be "different" and pick dumb upsets. Bleh.
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NP: Sephiroth > Midna > Little Mac
#356 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/18/2013 9:37:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
I kind of want to wait until the picture comes out.

Reyn looks like the kind of character that's not exactly photogenic. At least all the pictures I saw looked pretty stupid.

Depending on how stupid he looks there I think I might put him last =\
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#357 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 9:36:50 AM | message detail
I haven't played either Xenoblade or The Walking Dead, but I'm going to guess that Reyn is just a member of an ensemble cast while I'd have to imagine that Clementine is very prominent in her game.

Again though, a little girl and a generic JRPG buff dude vs. a f***ing dragon.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#358 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 9:37:35 AM | message detail
redrocket posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
No. Says the oracle predictions where the absolutely overwhelming favorite is Morrigan and not even in a close fashion.


Debatable matches have *never* stopped the rampant groupthink of this board, ever.
==
sig


So what exactly defines a debatable match then? One that you get wrong?


I got this match correct; it was still debatable. The board will overwhelming support what they perceive to be even a minor consensus favorite.

Take the last contest, for instance: Squall versus Auron.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3839

The board expected it to be a close, hard fought match. It *was* a close, hard fought match. Squall and Auron were close in the stats and looked similarly impressive. Squall was determined to have looked ever so slightly more impressive.

The Oracle consensus? 80% for Squall, 20% for Auron. Get outta here with that talk.
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#359 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 9:38:03 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
I kind of want to wait until the picture comes out.

Reyn looks like the kind of character that's not exactly photogenic. At least all the pictures I saw looked pretty stupid.

Depending on how stupid he looks there I think I might put him last =\


Pretty much how I felt when I looked him up so that I could write my guest analysis well.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#360 | redrocket | Posted 7/18/2013 9:39:23 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
No. Says the oracle predictions where the absolutely overwhelming favorite is Morrigan and not even in a close fashion.


Debatable matches have *never* stopped the rampant groupthink of this board, ever.
==
sig


So what exactly defines a debatable match then? One that you get wrong?


I got this match correct; it was still debatable. The board will overwhelming support what they perceive to be even a minor consensus favorite.

Take the last contest, for instance: Squall versus Auron.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3839

The board expected it to be a close, hard fought match. It *was* a close, hard fought match. Squall and Auron were close in the stats and looked similarly impressive. Squall was determined to have looked ever so slightly more impressive.

The Oracle consensus? 80% for Squall, 20% for Auron. Get outta here with that talk.
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There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.
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It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest
#361 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/18/2013 9:39:31 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Spyro is up against two really good characters. He's going to win, but I hope he doesn't.


I'm playing TWD right now. Clem's cool but Spyro deserves this after that 2002 embarrassment.
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#362 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 9:39:36 AM | message detail
Spyro wins a match. SPYRO! 2002-2013, took long enough. Fodder-line.

GameFAQs voters are... pedophiles. Clem time. Zombies.

Reyn wins. LOL Who the **** is Reyn? Oh, from Xenoblade.
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#363 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/18/2013 9:40:35 AM | message detail
Ehhh, I secretly had Edgeworth second. There was too much of a trend of action characters bombing, and him only being in because of the large pool sealed the deal for me.
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#364 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 9:40:40 AM | message detail
Next match will be my first miss I believe.
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#365 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 9:41:05 AM | message detail
redrocket posted...
There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.


You're being dense now. Debatable matches need not in any capacity be close matches.

Or don't you remember Vincent/Kerrigan?
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#366 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 9:41:59 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.


You're being dense now. Debatable matches need not in any capacity be close matches.

Or don't you remember Vincent/Kerrigan?
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Why was it debateable again?
#367 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 9:42:44 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.


You're being dense now. Debatable matches need not in any capacity be close matches.

Or don't you remember Vincent/Kerrigan?
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sig


Why was it debateable again?


And so we come full circle.
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#368 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/18/2013 9:43:52 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
No. Says the oracle predictions where the absolutely overwhelming favorite is Morrigan and not even in a close fashion.


Debatable matches have *never* stopped the rampant groupthink of this board, ever.
==
sig


So what exactly defines a debatable match then? One that you get wrong?


I got this match correct; it was still debatable. The board will overwhelming support what they perceive to be even a minor consensus favorite.

Take the last contest, for instance: Squall versus Auron.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3839

The board expected it to be a close, hard fought match. It *was* a close, hard fought match. Squall and Auron were close in the stats and looked similarly impressive. Squall was determined to have looked ever so slightly more impressive.

The Oracle consensus? 80% for Squall, 20% for Auron. Get outta here with that talk.
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Except there's a big difference between your example and todays match.

Your example. 80/20 but everyone predicting 51/49
Today's match. 95/5 and everyone predicting 62/38 (effectively if it was 1 vs 1 between Morrigan/Edgeworth)
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#369 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/18/2013 9:44:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The Oracle consensus? 80% for Squall, 20% for Auron. Get outta here with that talk.


The 'oracle consensus' isn't just how many people pick what character, but also what they pick them by. Pretty sure the consensus was something like "Squall with 53%" which is pretty close.

Can't check exactly what it was though. That would be a useful stat to put on the oraclechallenge website, to be honest...
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#370 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 9:44:37 AM | message detail
Morrigan should raise a couple of % after the Power Hour. Edgeworth and Agent 47 is gonna be close still, I think.

Blind hope I suppose, though it would be pretty epic to see a Hitman comeback and assassinate a prosecutor in the last minutes.
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#371 | redrocket | Posted 7/18/2013 9:45:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.


You're being dense now. Debatable matches need not in any capacity be close matches.

Or don't you remember Vincent/Kerrigan?
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sig


You literally just gave an example of a close match, and emphasized through your whole post how close it was, to prove that it was debatable in spite of a large Oracle consensus.
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It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest
#372 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 9:45:57 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
redrocket posted...
There's one problem here. This isn't a close match. Morrigan is blowing these chumps away.


You're being dense now. Debatable matches need not in any capacity be close matches.

Or don't you remember Vincent/Kerrigan?
==
sig


Why was it debateable again?


And so we come full circle.
==
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Oh yeah I read Ulti analys on the wiki
This is stupid
#373 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 9:46:59 AM | message detail
jesus f***ing christ look at the t**s on Morrigan
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#374 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 9:47:48 AM | message detail
thank you thank you

i'll be making tjf pics all contest season
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~Zen
#375 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/18/2013 9:48:24 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
thank you thank you

i'll be making tjf pics all contest season


catgirl lightning please
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#376 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/18/2013 9:49:59 AM | message detail
Clem tjf pics pls
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#377 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 9:50:08 AM | message detail
i had a dream that Bacon picked Cloud Cosplay Lightning and all our brackets fell apart

catgirl lightning sounds like a better idea
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~Zen
#378 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 9:50:18 AM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Except there's a big difference between your example and todays match.

Your example. 80/20 but everyone predicting 51/49
Today's match. 95/5 and everyone predicting 62/38 (effectively if it was 1 vs 1 between Morrigan/Edgeworth)


I cited an extreme example to demonstrate the pure consistency of the groupthink. If your intent is to have me admit that Morrigan winning today's match was less debatable than Squall winning against Auron, I will freely offer that (although even in THAT match you had the winning side expressing 'shock' that Squall winning was ever debated).

A match need not be as even as Squall//Auron to qualify as 'debatable'. Results like Link > fodder and Morrigan > Edgeworth aren't even in the same ballpark.
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#379 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 9:51:17 AM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Clem tjf pics pls


http://i.imgur.com/nwvxYHM.png
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~Zen
#380 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 9:55:44 AM | message detail
Would Phoenix Wright be winning here or no?
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#381 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/18/2013 9:56:44 AM | message detail
Probably. I dunno what UMvC3 SFF would do to the both of them.
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~Zen
#382 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 10:04:13 AM | message detail
I feel like just counting all the veterans who have fallen so far and what contest they debuted in.

Tingle - Summer 2006
Captain Olimar - Summer 2003
Kain - Summer 2004
Jak - Summer 2004
Yuri Lowell - Winter 2010
Fei Fong Wong - Fall 2008
Professor Layton - Fall 2008
Marth - Summer 2007
Nightmare - Summer 2007
KOS-MOS - Summer 2003
Heavy - Summer 2008
Frank West - Summer 2007
Meta-Knight - Summer 2007
Midna - Summer 2007
Little Mac - Summer 2002
Miles Edgeworth - Summer 2007
Agent 47 - Summer 2005

I guess the reason why I've been tracking this is because I've been reading up the contest histories for all of these characters as they've lost, including reading the analyses for every match they've been in. It feels rather odd to be reading analyses of pre-2007 matches, almost as if 2007 marked the beginning of a new era for contests.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#383 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 10:18:54 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...

I guess the reason why I've been tracking this is because I've been reading up the contest histories for all of these characters as they've lost, including reading the analyses for every match they've been in. It feels rather odd to be reading analyses of pre-2007 matches, almost as if 2007 marked the beginning of a new era for contests.


I know right
There are so many things that now seems so obvious but were debateable then
#384 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/18/2013 10:19:36 AM | message detail
What I learned today: the French are the horniest people in the world, followed by the Brazilian.
#385 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/18/2013 10:20:14 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I feel like just counting all the veterans who have fallen so far and what contest they debuted in.

Tingle - Summer 2006
Captain Olimar - Summer 2003
Kain - Summer 2004
Jak - Summer 2004
Yuri Lowell - Winter 2010
Fei Fong Wong - Fall 2008
Professor Layton - Fall 2008
Marth - Summer 2007
Nightmare - Summer 2007
KOS-MOS - Summer 2003
Heavy - Summer 2008
Frank West - Summer 2007
Meta-Knight - Summer 2007
Midna - Summer 2007
Little Mac - Summer 2002
Miles Edgeworth - Summer 2007
Agent 47 - Summer 2005

I guess the reason why I've been tracking this is because I've been reading up the contest histories for all of these characters as they've lost, including reading the analyses for every match they've been in. It feels rather odd to be reading analyses of pre-2007 matches, almost as if 2007 marked the beginning of a new era for contests.


What are you saying? Tingle, Olimar, Kain, Jak, Layton, and more on that list were fodder when they started. Heck, some of the guys in your list are stronger now than when they debuted. I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say here.
#386 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/18/2013 10:22:23 AM | message detail
Also the British seem to love Agent 47 for some reason. James Bond?
#387 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 10:24:21 AM | message detail
So out of 246 Gurus
107 got Spyro first
108 got Clementine first
30 got Reyn first

I guess Reyn lock for 3rd place and Spyro and Clementine can be anything?
#388 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 10:31:06 AM | message detail
None of those three is a lock for any position.
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#389 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/18/2013 10:35:59 AM | message detail
I have Reyn in my bracket, but I really wish I didn't. I'm feeling Spyro > Clem > Reyn is the most likely outcome.
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Bracket score: 18 / Expert score: 90
#390 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 7/18/2013 10:44:41 AM | message detail
Clem > Reyn > Spyro
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*shrug*
#391 | hawk533 | Posted 7/18/2013 10:48:07 AM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
I have Reyn in my bracket, but I really wish I didn't. I'm feeling Spyro > Clem > Reyn is the most likely outcome.

How do you have any gauge on the Walking Dead's strength?

I feel like we'll get Spyro > Reyn, though Dunban didn't do any worse on Vincent than I think Spyro would have. I have no idea where Clem is going to end up. I'm putting her on the bottom because she's a child, but she could win for all I know.
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Bracket Pts: 19/20 Expert Pts: 76
Today's Picks: Spyro > Reyn & Luigi > Balthier
#392 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 10:49:10 AM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
No. Says the oracle predictions where the absolutely overwhelming favorite is Morrigan and not even in a close fashion.


Debatable matches have *never* stopped the rampant groupthink of this board, ever.
==
sig

Except to have a debatable match...you kind of literally have to have some debate. Like, there was literally no debate on who was winning this match. Morrigan was always considered the clear choice for #1. If there was any debate it was trivial and probably hipster-style "want to be different!" stuff.

The debate in this match was all about Edgey and 47. Now that was very much debated, lots of talk about it and nobody seemed to have much confidence in either guy.

But I never saw anybody seriously thinking Edgey or 47 would beat Morrigan. This was expected to be the beatdown it is.
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#393 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 10:51:24 AM | message detail
I have Reyn in my bracket. But I think I'm going Spyro > Clem > Reyn, unfortunately.

I got a 0 for today's match for thinking 47 > Edgey. Can't be getting -6 for the next match.

But if Reyn wins lol
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Pts: 20/20 Today's Picks: Reyn & Luigi
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#394 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 10:53:08 AM | message detail
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Pretty sure Reyn will be 3rd though. Going with bank-bank-Reyn in my Expert. 1 single point FTW!
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#395 | spooky96 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:02:19 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Pretty sure Reyn will be 3rd though. Going with bank-bank-Reyn in my Expert. 1 single point FTW!


LOL That's exactly what I was thinking and what I have in my Expert pick.
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#396 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 11:02:34 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I feel like just counting all the veterans who have fallen so far and what contest they debuted in.

Tingle - Summer 2006
Captain Olimar - Summer 2003
Kain - Summer 2004
Jak - Summer 2004
Yuri Lowell - Winter 2010
Fei Fong Wong - Fall 2008
Professor Layton - Fall 2008
Marth - Summer 2007
Nightmare - Summer 2007
KOS-MOS - Summer 2003
Heavy - Summer 2008
Frank West - Summer 2007
Meta-Knight - Summer 2007
Midna - Summer 2007
Little Mac - Summer 2002
Miles Edgeworth - Summer 2007
Agent 47 - Summer 2005

I guess the reason why I've been tracking this is because I've been reading up the contest histories for all of these characters as they've lost, including reading the analyses for every match they've been in. It feels rather odd to be reading analyses of pre-2007 matches, almost as if 2007 marked the beginning of a new era for contests.


What are you saying? Tingle, Olimar, Kain, Jak, Layton, and more on that list were fodder when they started. Heck, some of the guys in your list are stronger now than when they debuted. I honestly have no idea what you're trying to say here.


It has nothing to do with any of these specific characters. I meant more how odd it feels to be reading analyses of pre-2007 contest matches, making it seem as if the 2007 contest was the beginning of a new era for GameFAQs contests.

In all honesty, that sounds about right to me. I'll just admit right now that I randomly stumbled on the Wiki one fine day in Summer 2008 and...pretty much got hooked right from there. I ended up reading through every contest analysis right there, and eventually caught the Fall 2008 contest right as it was taking place. I then came to this board so that I could do more with the Spring 2009 contest, and the rest is history.

That being said, the main point I wanted to make was that in Summer 2008 six contests had yet to take place including this ongoing one, so back then it felt like the pre-2007 matches were the norm. Now that era just feels weird to read about interspersed with all the 2007 and later stuff.
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#397 | hawk533 | Posted 7/18/2013 11:03:54 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Can't wait to hear the reactions if this match turns out to be a blow-out for any of the characters.
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Bracket Pts: 19/20 Expert Pts: 76
Today's Picks: Spyro > Reyn & Luigi > Balthier
#398 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 11:04:18 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Except to have a debatable match...you kind of literally have to have some debate. Like, there was literally no debate on who was winning this match. Morrigan was always considered the clear choice for #1. If there was any debate it was trivial and probably hipster-style "want to be different!" stuff.


This is your trademark tunnel vision at work here - your assertion is demonstrably false. You may want to play revisionist history now and say there was no debate over a character we hadn't seen in twelve years win this match without doubt, but a quick glance at pre-battle discussions prove otherwise.
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#399 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 11:05:18 AM | message detail
hawk533 posted...
creativename posted...
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Can't wait to hear the reactions if this match turns out to be a blow-out for any of the characters.


why was this match debated, [X] was the obvious choice
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#400 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 11:22:14 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
hawk533 posted...
creativename posted...
The next match is a complete toss-up. I have absolutely no idea who will win and neither does anyone else.

Can't wait to hear the reactions if this match turns out to be a blow-out for any of the characters.


why was this match debated, [X] was the obvious choice
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You're just being completely silly just for the heck of it now, aren't you?

Virtually all the debate about this match was for 2nd. The Oracle consensus had Morrigan in a blowout. Any discussion about #1 here was trivial, and would only be considered "debatable" if you considered discussion of any kind to be debatable. Almost all of us were confident Morrigan had this easily.

You're the one trying to revise history here. Oracle consensus=blowout. Most discussion centered on 2nd.

Edgey and 47 were both considered low level fodder by all, thus Morrigan was the heavy favorite by default. Not because we had confidence in the strength of a character not seen in 12 years. But because we knew her opponents were so goddamned weak there was very little chance she could blow this.

When there's a heavy favorite, and that favorite is expected to win in blowout fashion, you simply cannot call that debatable.

This is not to say that when there's no debate people can't be wrong (Knuckles/Magus). But people weren't wrong, they expected Morrigan to trounce these clowns and that's exactly what happened.
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