Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1067

#251 | Calintares | Posted 7/18/2013 7:11:59 AM | message detail
AshsBallistics posted...
If Samus gets an Other M pic that isn't her in the Varia Suit (which is actually a fairly good design all things considered), she's got more to be worried about than what the source material is i.e. Hi ZSS.


Not ZSS, but would you vote for this?

http://metroid.com/imgs/content/characters/metroid_characters_samus_large02.png
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#252 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2013 7:18:38 AM | message detail
Match XX: (6) Morrigan Aensland vs. (13) Miles Edgeworth vs. (22) Agent 47

Previous Contest

Morrigan Aensland – 2002
68.30% against Spyro the Dragon
33.19% against Mario

Miles Edgeworth – 2010
23.78% against Big Boss

Agent 47 – 2007
17.56% against Scorpion, Midna and Kratos Aurion

Analysis

Morrigan makes her return after an 11 year absence as the winner of the returner’s tournament. While no one is expecting her to have the same strength as we saw back in 2002 the board is generally confident in her ability to win over her two fodder opponents. Still for a few members there is some concern about her ability to easily walkover this match and not for bad reasoning, Darkstalkers has essentially disappeared since we last saw her. What she does have in her favour besides appearance is being in multiple crossover games, most notably Marvel vs. Capcom 3 where she is a fan favourite in the game. That alone tips the match in her favour in my eyes.

The fight for second I find to be interesting as both characters have had similar contest performances with Agent 47 looking a bit better against Midna in 2007 than Edgeworth did in 2008. Agent 47 has also had a new game in 2012, it was nothing big, but it at least keeps Agent 47 fresh.

Looking at Phoenix Wright’s match one could argue that he has gained in strength, but how much does it translate for Edgeworth? The main issue is Phoenix would have likely gotten his boost from his appearance in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 which Edgeworth did not appear in so voters are not likely to know about him unless they decided to try out Phoenix Wright after to see what his game is all about. Then you have to consider that Marvel vs. Capcom fans are more likely to side with Morrigan in this match which could make any Edgeworth’s boost moot.

I feel Agent 47 will take this match, but at the same time Edgeworth could pull off the win. Should Morrigan flop this match could get quite interesting and we could see a lot of people’s expert challenge burn down in flames with a potential -6 penalty.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Morrigan Aensland > Agent 47 and Miles Edgeworth

charmander6000’s Prediction: Morrigan Aensland – 41.36%, Agent 47 – 30.37%, Miles Edgeworth – 28.27%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 16/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Morrigan
#253 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/18/2013 7:24:42 AM | message detail
Well, this has the potential to either be division where my bracket falls apart for good, or the one where I finally get to the leaderboard.
#254 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 7:28:13 AM | message detail
Calintares posted...
AshsBallistics posted...
If Samus gets an Other M pic that isn't her in the Varia Suit (which is actually a fairly good design all things considered), she's got more to be worried about than what the source material is i.e. Hi ZSS.


Not ZSS, but would you vote for this?

http://metroid.com/imgs/content/characters/metroid_characters_samus_large02.png


Well, depends. Has Adam granted authorization to vote for it?
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#255 | Calintares | Posted 7/18/2013 7:36:10 AM | message detail
How strong do you think Adam would be in this thing? he's got to be one of the most unlikable characters of the decade.
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#256 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 7:46:20 AM | message detail
Link > Mario = Cloud > Snake > Sephiroth > Samus > Mega Man > Sonic > Crono
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#257 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 7:46:43 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Samus would have beaten Cloud in a day match.

I don't think there are that many people who would have voted previously but no longer would due to Other M.

Samus would absolutely not have beaten Cloud in a day match.

I just posted in the Oracle topic about how FF7 being better in night matches is a fallacy. The Power Hour is a huge percentage of the total votes in a night match, and that is by far when FF7 is at it's absolute worst. FF7 does good overnight but that time period receives very little votes.

In the Cloud/Samus match Cloud was doing the standard FF7 rise to heaven, where their percentage never fails to increase over any time period, simply because their Power Hour is so horrific.

Cloud was also doing much better in the day portion of that match than his overall percentage. From 8am to noon when the match ended, Cloud got over 54% of the vote. As compared to the 52.81% he actually finished the match with.

Cloud would have easily posted at least 53.50+% on Samus in a 24 hour match, likely over 54%.

The difference between 12 hour matches and 24 hour matches for FF7 is just huge.
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#258 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/18/2013 7:46:58 AM | message detail
Mario = Cloud

get this nonsense out of here
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#259 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/18/2013 7:49:45 AM | message detail
So how low does everyone think Jade will end up in the final stats? Because Magus is going to be crushed into oblivion and beyond against Crono and Pikachu. I would honestly not be shocked if Magus is in the 5-7% range of that match. And if Crono wins it and ends up against Cloud and Snake, his final x-stat won't be so great either. Is there any way Magus SFF knocks all three of them (him, Otacon, and Jade) into the low fodder levels?
#260 | spooky96 | Posted 7/18/2013 7:49:52 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Link > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Sephiroth > Mega Man > Samus > Sonic > Crono


Fixed.
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#261 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 7:51:02 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
Mario = Cloud

get this nonsense out of here


what ever

Mario > Cloud
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#262 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 7:51:57 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
I will say it again.

Epona > Snake.

Don't say you weren't warned.

I've been rallying to get Epona in the contest since 2K3...but she wouldn't even be able to beat the Solid S*** that Frog faced :)
The Mana Sword posted...
Mario = Cloud

get this nonsense out of here

So do you mean to say it's obvious Mario>Cloud now, or that it's obvious Cloud is still superior to Mario...?
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#263 | ZFS | Posted 7/18/2013 7:53:51 AM | message detail
I assumed it was because there wouldn't be an 'equal' result in a match, and going with equal over a decision was weak! That's probably like a 50/50 match, though, so I went equal!
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#264 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 7:54:05 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
ZFS posted...
Link > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Sephiroth > Mega Man > Samus > Sonic > Crono


Fixed.

Mega Man>Samus? That's a pretty controversial choice.

Also Samus and Snake are virtually equal IMO.
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#265 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/18/2013 7:55:26 AM | message detail
Otacon > magus. Probably better than 5% vs chrono and pikachu too IMO
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#266 | Xuxon | Posted 7/18/2013 7:56:16 AM | message detail
From: TheOneAboveAll | Posted: 7/18/2013 10:49:45 AM | #259
So how low does everyone think Jade will end up in the final stats? Because Magus is going to be crushed into oblivion and beyond against Crono and Pikachu. I would honestly not be shocked if Magus is in the 5-7% range of that match. And if Crono wins it and ends up against Cloud and Snake, his final x-stat won't be so great either. Is there any way Magus SFF knocks all three of them (him, Otacon, and Jade) into the low fodder levels?

5-7% is definitely too low. 10% is about the bare minimum i would expect there.
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#267 | vcharon | Posted 7/18/2013 7:56:34 AM | message detail
While it's nice to see Sephy rebound somewhat with some great percentage gains overnight, this is still a pretty pitiful performance and I'm wary of him beating any of the N9 that isn't Crono at this point. I'm even wary of Big Boss, Kirby, etc. He's just fallen a long way. Granted, we are in the age of anti-blowoutfaqs (unless Chester is in the match), but still. I came in thinking 60% would be pretty disappointing but it was what I expected him to get against two Nintendo low-midcarders.
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#268 | Xuxon | Posted 7/18/2013 8:00:52 AM | message detail
After this match i would take Sonic and Mega Man over Seph in a 12 hour match (not 24). Luckily Big Boss is a 24 hour match so I'm not worried there, but I would be a bit if it was 12 hours.
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#269 | Xuxon | Posted 7/18/2013 8:02:32 AM | message detail
Also I just realized Sephiroth's round 2 opponents are going to be weaker than round 1. That seems very unusual for this format.
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#270 | spooky96 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:03:35 AM | message detail | (edited)
creativename posted...
spooky96 posted...
ZFS posted...
Link > Mario > Cloud > Snake > Sephiroth > Mega Man > Samus > Sonic > Crono


Fixed.

Mega Man>Samus? That's a pretty controversial choice.

Also Samus and Snake are virtually equal IMO.


Well after posting that I did think that I might be underrating Samus here, but I don't know, I think Mega Man has a decent shot at taking Samus down.
And it's like Samus = Snake can be roughly about right too, I'm finding hard to place her strength, but I'd say Snake would win this.

Well, yeah I guess it is still Samus> Mega Man, pretty sure about Mario > Cloud though.
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#271 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:05:35 AM | message detail
True, 57% against 2 lower-end Nintendo characters is simply not impressive at all but I wouldn't take Megaman or Sonic over him just yet.

FFVII is really disappointing this contest.
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#272 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:09:16 AM | message detail
Sephiroth is doing worse on Midna than Bowser would have been expected to do and that's before considering the possibility of LFF (might not be much though)

Early round FFVII is so much fun to play around with.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 16/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Morrigan
#273 | creativename | Posted 7/18/2013 8:13:43 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Sephiroth is doing worse on Midna than Bowser would have been expected to do and that's before considering the possibility of LFF (might not be much though)

Early round FFVII is so much fun to play around with.

I don't think Midna and Bowser have shared a match together...? What are you basing that on?

Anyway, in the Oracle the consensus was Seph getting about 70% on Midna and that's what he'll finish with. People really underestimated Little Mac.
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#274 | backinblack167 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:16:11 AM | message detail
Ended up switching to Morrigan > Edgeworth,

I don't feel good about this match at all
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#275 | White_Tiger | Posted 7/18/2013 8:18:38 AM | message detail
yeah Little Mac doing much better than expected, especially in the US.
#276 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:19:38 AM | message detail
I don't think Midna and Bowser have shared a match together...? What are you basing that on?

Anyway, in the Oracle the consensus was Seph getting about 70% on Midna and that's what he'll finish with. People really underestimated Little Mac.


Bowser's performance against Sora later in 2010.

I feel the consensus is taking into account Sephiroth's anti-votes, even my prediction has Sephiroth 1% off
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 16/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Morrigan
#277 | spooky96 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:19:59 AM | message detail
I have Edgeworth in the bracket. I'm screwed.
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And then lost 7 matches in a row >_>
#278 | vcharon | Posted 7/18/2013 8:20:27 AM | message detail
I took Edgeworth over 47 because Agent 47's picture looks like ass to me. It's not one of his more iconic looking grabs (I guess maybe he only has face shots and box art or something when it comes to that). Him in action just doesn't look that great.

Morrigan should win this with no problem. Just because Phoenix looked somewhat impressive doesn't mean that much. Phoenix is a lot like many characters when it comes to their respective series; no one's really going to be that close by as a supporting cast member.
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#279 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 8:20:36 AM | message detail
backinblack167 posted...
Ended up switching to Morrigan > Edgeworth,

I don't feel good about this match at all


*secretly changes Expert challenge picks*
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 16/18 pts | Expert Challenge: 49/108
NP: Sephiroth > Midna > Little Mac
#280 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 8:22:18 AM | message detail
Mario has to do more to conclusively justify that he's the second strongest character to me. A lot more. He had Charizard breathing down his neck last contest; he's not unbeatable.

Samus at least put up a good score on Cloud (the justification for taking her over Mario in 2k5 returns!), but she did noticeably worse on Cloud in a 12 hour match than Snake did in a 24 hour match. She's had nothing but a game that's been universally reviled by the fanbase since then. Snake was nipping at her heels in a one on one match when all he had was a trailer, and he's had new games and MGS5 hype since the last contest to tide him over. He deserves to be favored in that, I'm not sure what more he really has to do.
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#281 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/18/2013 8:25:05 AM | message detail
Wait, I get it. FFVII is Rafael Nadal!
#282 | vcharon | Posted 7/18/2013 8:26:03 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Wait, I get it. FFVII is Rafael Nadal!


Don't make me feel dirty to be a fan of FFVII!

Also... not sure what Metal Gear Solid 5 does for Solid Snake.
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#283 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 8:26:22 AM | message detail
When I first saw Agent 47's picture I thought of Rude from FF7

Agent 47's got this

>_____>
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 16/18 pts | Expert Challenge: 49/108
NP: Sephiroth > Midna > Little Mac
#284 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 8:28:10 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Wait, I get it. FFVII is Rafael Nadal!


Don't make me feel dirty to be a fan of FFVII!

Also... not sure what Metal Gear Solid 5 does for Solid Snake.


MGS3 appreciably boosted Snake. You can't treat the contest strengths of Snake and Big Boss as independent of one another, it has never worked like that.
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#285 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 8:39:41 AM | message detail
Calintares posted...
How strong do you think Adam would be in this thing? he's got to be one of the most unlikable characters of the decade.


Put him against a colossus and watch the fireworks.
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#286 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/18/2013 8:44:01 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Wait, I get it. FFVII is Rafael Nadal!


Don't make me feel dirty to be a fan of FFVII!

Also... not sure what Metal Gear Solid 5 does for Solid Snake.


My point was he always underperforms early in Slams but gets through to the next round, and when he faces the other top players he hits his top form.
#287 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 8:48:03 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Calintares posted...
How strong do you think Adam would be in this thing? he's got to be one of the most unlikable characters of the decade.


Put him against a colossus and watch the fireworks.


Or square him off against Samus and watch as she fails to garner a single vote without his say so.
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#288 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:50:34 AM | message detail
Morrigan>Agent 47>Edgeworth
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#289 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 8:52:52 AM | message detail | (edited)
So that's the main problem cited with my favorite character's portrayal in Other M? That Samus looks up to a man too much?

I haven't played Other M since it came out, but going off of what little has been leaked of her characterization in the Prime games and Super Metroid, that honestly doesn't sound bad at all. I guess most of her fans just want Samus to be some brash anti-hero or something.

I dunno. Even before the game was announced, I envisioned Samus to have a rather fragile personality compared to someone like Solid Snake or Master Chief.
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#290 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/18/2013 8:52:48 AM | message detail
Edgey's pretty cool. Pulling for the upset but Morrigan got dis.
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#291 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/18/2013 8:53:05 AM | message detail
vcharon posted...
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Wait, I get it. FFVII is Rafael Nadal!


Don't make me feel dirty to be a fan of FFVII!

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#292 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 8:56:44 AM | message detail | (edited)
Sephiroth currently has exactly 70% on Midna. Well at least he did at 11:50.

I thought that's supposed to be at least on par with 2010 Sephiroth. Anyone else have a say in the matter.
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#293 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:57:14 AM | message detail
Sephiroth with around 57.5%.That was okay.People expect too much in this day.FF VII is more than 16 years old.And it's characters are still strong after all these years.That is impressive.
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#294 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/18/2013 8:57:39 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
So that's the main problem cited with my favorite character's portrayal in Other M? That Samus looks up to a man too much?

I haven't played Other M since it came out, but going off of what little has been leaked of her characterization in the Prime games and Super Metroid, that honestly doesn't sound bad at all. I guess most of her fans just want Samus to be some brash anti-hero or something.

I dunno. Even before the game was announced, I envisioned Samus to have a rather fragile personality compared to someone like Solid Snake or Master Chief.


I was wondering who the people were that would theoretically approve of their hero making a literal transformation into a helpless and pitifully mewling little girl when confronted with a boss. I can die satisfied now.
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#295 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:58:11 AM | message detail
I remember I defended Agent 47 back then when people considered him neo-tanner
I support him,will vote for him,but he has no chance in beating Edgeworth
#296 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 8:58:56 AM | message detail
I switched to Morrigan > 47 > Edgey...

Uh oh.
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#297 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/18/2013 8:59:30 AM | message detail
Agent 47's board vote is going to suck, hopefully he's not too buried so he can make this a match.
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Points: 16/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Morrigan
#298 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/18/2013 9:00:19 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Morrigan Aensland
9.09%
1 Votes

Miles Edgeworth
90.91%
10 Votes
Your Pick

Agent 47
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 11
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#299 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/18/2013 9:00:23 AM | message detail
Edgeworth starting strong.
#300 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 9:00:34 AM | message detail
Morrigan Aensland
33.33%
17 Votes

Miles Edgeworth
52.94%
27 Votes

Agent 47
13.73%
7 Votes
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