Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1067

#201 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 9:59:09 PM | message detail
I'm not sure why almost doubling Midna in the Power Hour is an underperformance. Sephy probably beats Midna 70-30 by the time this is over. Sora beat Midna 63/37 three years ago. Sure, it's not the absolute beatdown Sephiroth would have pulled off 11 years ago. But this isn't so much of an underperformance.
#202 | paulg235 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:59:43 PM | message detail
Little Mac refuses to completely fold. He just chipped away a vote on Midna's lead, so he may easily finish between 17-19% by the time this poll ends.
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#203 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/17/2013 10:05:17 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I'm not sure why almost doubling Midna in the Power Hour is an underperformance. Sephy probably beats Midna 70-30 by the time this is over. Sora beat Midna 63/37 three years ago. Sure, it's not the absolute beatdown Sephiroth would have pulled off 11 years ago. But this isn't so much of an underperformance.


People expected him to be hitting 60%+ but he'll be lucky to hit 56-57% at this rate.

But yeah like creative already said. This isn't so much an underperformance on Midna, it's the fact that Little Mac isn't absolute fodder (10-15%) like everyone thought. That's where the missing Seph % is really.
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#204 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 10:09:42 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
People expected him to be hitting 60%+ but he'll be lucky to hit 56-57% at this rate.

But yeah like creative already said. This isn't so much an underperformance on Midna, it's the fact that Little Mac isn't absolute fodder (10-15%) like everyone thought. That's where the missing Seph % is really.


Right. So Seph isn't doing terribly here at all. I really don't understand why everyone's overreacting to this. Sephiroth will look fine when all is said and done.
#205 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:12:38 PM | message detail
Little Mac overlaps more with Midna. Not really that hard to figure tbh.
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#206 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 10:13:53 PM | message detail
Sephiroth starting to take off now that the Power Hour is over.
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#207 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:19:05 PM | message detail
Not sure if Little Mac really strong or Sephiroth and Midna really really weak
#208 | pjbasis | Posted 7/17/2013 10:23:50 PM | message detail
Little Mac was in a match in 2007 and did not terribly.

He's only had reason to gain with a modern Wii release.
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#209 | LOLContests | Posted 7/17/2013 10:27:23 PM | message detail
Eh, if Sephiroth gets to 60%, I'm not sure this will end up telling us much of anything.
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#210 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/17/2013 10:33:50 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Little Mac was in a match in 2007 and did not terribly.

He's only had reason to gain with a modern Wii release.


I completely forgot about that but I also completely forgot he was in the 2002 contest too.
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#211 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 10:39:08 PM | message detail
Bowser > Meta Knight > Archer

Round 1
Mewtwo - 21,525 (N)
Link - 21,024 (N)
Sonic - 20,669 (D)
Bowser - 18,778 (D)
Raiden - 18,775 (D)
Ryu - 18,376 (D)
Yoshi - 18,306 (N)
X - 18,171 (N)
Commander Shepard - 17,993 (D)
Barret Wallace - 16,979 (D)
Aerith Gainborough - 16,445 (D)
Vincent Valentine - 16,308 (D)
Draven - 16,081 (N)
Waluigi - 14,794 (D)
The Boss - 14,690 (D)
Dracula - 13,906 (N)
Sub-Zero - 13,612 (N)
Jak - 13,191 (N)
Phoenix Wright - 11,914 (N)
Garrus Vakarian - 11,143 (N)
Tharja - 11,016 (N)
KOS-MOS - 10,944 (D)
Tiny Tina - 10,753 (N)
Professor Layton - 10,587 (D)
Chie Satonaka - 10,465 (N)
Captain Olimar - 9,829 (D)
Marth - 9,699 (N)
Chrom - 9,589 (D)
Juliet Starling - 8,651 (N)
Yuri Lowell - 8,637(D)
Hero - 8,311 (D)
Lucina - 8,227 (N)
Heavy - 7,924 (D)
Solaire of Astora - 7,620 (N)
Rinoa Heartilly - 7,503 (D)
Meta Knight - 7,468 (D)
Jigglypuff - 6,690 (N)
Reimu Hakurei - 6,379 (D)
Fei Fong Wong - 6,288 (D)
Face McShooty - 5,691 (D)
Kain - 5,491 (D)
Nightmare - 5,280 (N)
Archer - 4,767 (D)
Demi-Fiend - 4,561 (N)
Isaac (Binding) - 4,443 (N)
Dan Hibiki - 4,217 (D)
Alan Wake - 4,152 (D)
Zero (999) - 3,866 (N)
Tingle - 3,463 (N)
Dunban - 3,233 (D)
Frank West - 3,015 (N)
Welkin Gunther - 2,999 (N)
Caim - 1,586 (N)
Chester - 924 (N)
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#212 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 10:40:52 PM | message detail
What's crazy is Barret got more votes than both Aeris & Vincent in a Day match.

Ofcourse, their opponents come in to play but it's still surprising.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#213 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/17/2013 10:51:10 PM | message detail
It might sound like a dumb question, but could Morrigan receive a boost from the recent EVO? She's fresh in the memory of pretty much anybody who followed Marvel.
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#214 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/17/2013 10:58:03 PM | message detail
The people who follow EVO are the people who are voting for her anyways....
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#215 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:58:34 PM | message detail
I don't think your assessment of Barret, Aeris and Vincent's vote totals holds much water.

First, Barret only had to deal with Layton while Vincent had KOS-MOS and Aeris had both Hero and Rinoa.

In addition,

Aeris's match had 32,259 votes
Vincent's match had ONLY 30,485
Barret's match had 33,945 votes

Clearly, the difference in overall votes has an impact as well.

Also, does anybody think the fact that Sephiroth has a bad picture compared to the others who have great photos? If it was sephiroth with the flames in the background etc...I wonder if it would make a difference.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan
#216 | Calintares | Posted 7/17/2013 11:09:41 PM | message detail
Last time we saw anything resembling a fair match between Mario and FFVII was Sephiroth/Fox/Mario/Big Boss back in '07.

Six years ago.
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#217 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/17/2013 11:13:08 PM | message detail
So you make the big statement about how Barrett gets 650 more votes than Vincent but then you even don't consider the fact that barrets match had 3000 more votes.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan
#218 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/17/2013 11:14:00 PM | message detail
Oh my poor Sephiroth. How you've fallen from the lofty heights you were once at. This will end up respectable by the end, but to think you once led in a final match. =(
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#219 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 11:39:49 PM | message detail
Wasn't making any big statement. Just pointing out the irony in the vote totals.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#220 | Lopen | Posted 7/17/2013 11:53:23 PM | message detail
People who follow EVO would be more likely to anti-vote Morrigan honestly. Most people don't like Chris G!
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#221 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 12:05:39 AM | message detail
So how would you rank the Fabulous Five?
Link > Cloud > Mario > Snake > Sephiroth?
#222 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/18/2013 12:07:37 AM | message detail
Link > Snake = Mario > Cloud > Samus > Sephiroth
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#223 | pjbasis | Posted 7/18/2013 12:07:58 AM | message detail
I would rank Samus above some of the Fabulous Five
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#224 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/18/2013 12:09:43 AM | message detail
Really? I don't consider Samus to be strong
Maybe Other M even hurt her a bit...?
#225 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 12:16:47 AM | message detail
Samus might be the third strongest on the site in a 1v1 match. It seriously might be Link > Mario > Samus now, much to many people's dismay. Of course, it's possible that Other M and a lack of big games since Other M may have hurt her, but if not, she's a freakin' beast who I'd take over at least Sephiroth and Snake.
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#226 | pjbasis | Posted 7/18/2013 12:37:01 AM | message detail
#227 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/18/2013 12:39:17 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3854

It's embarrassing if this guy is now our second strongest character (I know, SFF, but it's still stupid).
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#228 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/18/2013 12:41:16 AM | message detail
Samus would have beaten Cloud in a day match.

I don't think there are that many people who would have voted previously but no longer would due to Other M.
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#229 | Sorozone | Posted 7/18/2013 12:47:10 AM | message detail
Samus is still awesome. Other M didn't do anything to change that.

I'd rather just ignore it. I think this is how a lot of people feel about it. She was due for a bad game. Happens to the best of them.
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#230 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/18/2013 12:47:50 AM | message detail
FFVII weakness means good things for my Snake pick at least.
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#231 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 12:49:16 AM | message detail
She wouldn't have beaten Cloud in a day match. Cloud's first three hours were poor enough that he (very slowly) gained percentage for the last nine hours of the match, including the morning. Still, if Samus has remained constant from three years ago - something I'll admit may NOT have happened - and if Cloud has been on a steady downtrend since then, that match is obviously very in play now.

As for Mario, I'd now take him over anyone but Link. Samus is a given, and whatever Nintendo support Snake has gained would abandon him for the plumber. Sephiroth and Cloud are the only ones who present problems, but Mario would jump out to such a lead that I have a hard time believing the Nintendo fanbase would allow him to relinquish it.
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#232 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/18/2013 12:53:43 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Samus is still awesome. Other M didn't do anything to change that.

I'd rather just ignore it. I think this is how a lot of people feel about it. She was due for a bad game. Happens to the best of them.


It's more that Other M likely did nothing to help her, and that Prime 3 is the weakest one of the trilogy. With Prime and Prime 2, Samus owned the GameCube generation, and that's what generated her rise in popularity from 2002-2006. In comparison, with only Prime 3 and Other M, she almost took the Wii generation off (Mario and Link ruled the Wii gen whereas she picked up the slack for the GameCube). It's been three years since Other M and six years since Prime 3. I don't think Samus is immune from the natural strength erosion that comes with a lack of new and exciting games, and that's the problem.
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#233 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/18/2013 12:59:08 AM | message detail
Yeah, though Samus was able to beat Sonic and get over 47% on Sephiroth in 2002 before Metroid Prime for the Gamecube was even out.
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#234 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/18/2013 1:32:43 AM | message detail
Seph's averaged 60% the past hour, he's doing fine I think.
#235 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/18/2013 2:47:21 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Samus is still awesome. Other M didn't do anything to change that.

I'd rather just ignore it. I think this is how a lot of people feel about it. She was due for a bad game. Happens to the best of them.


Ignoring the bad game isn't generally how these things work in a contest setting. If people expect boosts when their character gets a good game they should expect the reverse from a poor game. Not everyone is a highly engaged fan who'll stick with the series through thick and thin.

I'm sure Dante will hoping for the same though.
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#236 | SubDeity | Posted 7/18/2013 3:03:51 AM | message detail
Tempted to switch to 47 in expert mode...I really don't think he's as weak as people believe, while Edgeworth has always been turbo fodder.

Only holding back because I suspect low votals help Edgeworth.
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#237 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 3:18:05 AM | message detail
I expected Sephiroth with around 55%.He will finish with around 58%.That is fine I believe.
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#238 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/18/2013 3:24:41 AM | message detail
I've got 47 in my bracket just for an upset. But seeing as how neither of my upsets have panned out thus far, no confidence.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 16/18 pts | Expert Challenge: 49/108
NP: Sephiroth > Midna > Little Mac
#239 | Calintares | Posted 7/18/2013 3:29:00 AM | message detail
If Samus gets an obvious Other M picture, I know I'm way less likely to vote for her, as I actively dislike that incarnation.

May be only me, but some others might feel the same way.
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#240 | AshsBallistics | Posted 7/18/2013 3:40:31 AM | message detail
If Samus gets an Other M pic that isn't her in the Varia Suit (which is actually a fairly good design all things considered), she's got more to be worried about than what the source material is i.e. Hi ZSS.
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#241 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/18/2013 4:02:49 AM | message detail
Mario beats Snake for sure.
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#242 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/18/2013 4:12:12 AM | message detail
Keep in mind that Samus and Snake performed very similarly against Cloud in 2010, though Samus was in a night match while Snake got a 24 hour match. Of course, things probably changed a lot in three years so that may not still be true, with time likely favoring Snake with more MGS releases compared to Other M.

It's kind of a shame we won't really get to see how Cloud performs against non-Snake/Link elites without LFF involved. Either he's facing Link with Mario (or possibly Charizard or even Mega Man) or he'll be doing a second-place match with Sephiroth involved. Snake/Cloud will depend a decent bit on the third character, though it should be a good match regardless.
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#243 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/18/2013 4:16:19 AM | message detail
As for my guess on N9 strength, since everyone else is weighing in...

Link > Mario > Snake > Samus > Cloud > Mega Man > Sephiroth > Sonic > a few more characters > Crono

Though to be fair, I'm not confident at all in everyone between Mario and Cloud, and could see any match between two of them going either way (except Mario > Samus of course). I'm also banking on Mega Man getting a nice boost between Smash Bros and fans sympathizing with him after how much Capcom's been neglecting him, so I give him the edge over Sephy. Otherwise, Sonic's still Sonic, and I don't think anyone would argue Crono being lowest and losing to more than a glitch in a 1v1 setting.
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#244 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 4:40:58 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Sorozone posted...
Samus is still awesome. Other M didn't do anything to change that.

I'd rather just ignore it. I think this is how a lot of people feel about it. She was due for a bad game. Happens to the best of them.


It's more that Other M likely did nothing to help her, and that Prime 3 is the weakest one of the trilogy. With Prime and Prime 2, Samus owned the GameCube generation, and that's what generated her rise in popularity from 2002-2006. In comparison, with only Prime 3 and Other M, she almost took the Wii generation off (Mario and Link ruled the Wii gen whereas she picked up the slack for the GameCube). It's been three years since Other M and six years since Prime 3. I don't think Samus is immune from the natural strength erosion that comes with a lack of new and exciting games, and that's the problem.


Huh? I thought Prime 3 was generally considered to be superior to Prime 2. It sold better, is ranked higher on unikgamer, and has a higher user average on that site (9.1 vs. 8.5). The only thing against it is that Prime 2 was more critically acclaimed. Slightly.

In fact, like I mentioned earlier, Nintendo is still treating the franchise as one of its biggest - at least to me. The lack of a new Metroid game announcement would be a problem there, except that it's not like a new 3D Mario or new 3D Zelda has been announced either. Nintendo seems to be relying on its B-list franchises too much.

On a side note, what exactly is supposed to be the problem with Metroid: Other M? I haven't played it since it came out, and there's a good chance I might replay it soon since I'm almost done with Super Metroid. Whenever I watch footage of the game it seems like something that would be right up there with the best of the series, and then I do run into quite a few who feel that way (even found some who consider it to be superior to Super Metroid). Also I remember really liking the game (usually when I remember really liking a game that I haven't played in a long time I usually find it to be just as good as I remembered, which happened with Super Metroid and Wind Waker recently), and I've seen it at #1 on TWO "most underrated games" countdowns on YouTube.

As for the game itself, it just seems to be a massive case of "they changed it, now it sucks." I personally feel that's completely unfair, but then again for me the most exciting part of my gaming is finding out what makes a game unique and/or special (feel the same way about Super Mario Sunshine), which I guess isn't how most feel.
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#245 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 4:50:34 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
As for my guess on N9 strength, since everyone else is weighing in...

Link > Mario > Snake > Samus > Cloud > Mega Man > Sephiroth > Sonic > a few more characters > Crono

Though to be fair, I'm not confident at all in everyone between Mario and Cloud, and could see any match between two of them going either way (except Mario > Samus of course). I'm also banking on Mega Man getting a nice boost between Smash Bros and fans sympathizing with him after how much Capcom's been neglecting him, so I give him the edge over Sephy. Otherwise, Sonic's still Sonic, and I don't think anyone would argue Crono being lowest and losing to more than a glitch in a 1v1 setting.


I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of Samus > Cloud. The big problem is whether or not she was overperforming due to Other M hype in 2010 (remember that everything Metroid-related exceeded expectations that year, and then Samus's rivalry performed like crap in Rivalry Rumble...oh wait, that contest doesn't count hur hur). That said, literally the only game Cloud has gotten since last contest is Dissidia 012, and there other characters were advertised far more than he was (most notably a certain generic, unlikable anime chick) for that game. Samus has at least gotten a new, somewhat popular game since then, her franchise was represented in Nintendo Land, she appeared on a 3DS AR card (my gut instinct on thinking that is "yes, Nintendo still treats Metroid as a key franchise"), and she was one of the first characters announced for SSB4. That's far more than anything Cloud has done since then.

Suggesting that Other M would deboost Samus is like saying that Mario Sunshine would deboost Mario...oh wait.
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#246 | --Smurf-- | Posted 7/18/2013 5:05:33 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
As for my guess on N9 strength, since everyone else is weighing in...

Link > Mario > Snake > Samus > Cloud > Mega Man > Sephiroth > Sonic > a few more characters > Crono

Though to be fair, I'm not confident at all in everyone between Mario and Cloud, and could see any match between two of them going either way (except Mario > Samus of course). I'm also banking on Mega Man getting a nice boost between Smash Bros and fans sympathizing with him after how much Capcom's been neglecting him, so I give him the edge over Sephy. Otherwise, Sonic's still Sonic, and I don't think anyone would argue Crono being lowest and losing to more than a glitch in a 1v1 setting.


I think you're underestimating the Other M effect, a general Nintendo decline and making the assumption that Smash Bros will cover up all of Mega Man's problems and bring his decline to a juddering halt while still factoring in a FF7 decline.
I just don't see only one of those four factors coming to pass, the majority of the noble 9 would appear to be in decline at the moment so the FF7 hit alone isn't going to send them tumbling down the hierarchy
Only assumptions I'd make on the ranking right now is that Link is first, Cloud, Mario and Snake are in some order in the next tier and Crono is last and probably nowhere near the top 9. .
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#247 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/18/2013 5:18:10 AM | message detail
Here are the things that I think we can surmise about the N9 right now.

1. Link is obviously on top
2. Cloud, Mario, Snake and likely Samus are beneath him in some order.
3. Crono is well behind the others and would likely lose to quite a few non N9er's.
4. The rest of the N9, sans Crono, is safe barring a joke character gaining steam or a huge rally.

The weakest besides Crono is likely Sonic and he's already beaten all the Nintendo characters close to him one-on-one and the Square elites, like Vincent and Tifa, couldn't beat him back before FF started weakening.

The only exceptions could maybe be Big Boss with a Snake pic or MMX.
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#248 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/18/2013 6:12:46 AM | message detail
Okay, I thought Sephiroth was getting some godslayer percentage on Midna, but doing some calculation he only has 69.56% when I was expecting something like 72%. While it isn't exactly bad, it could either foreshadow an FFVII decline or prove that Midna would beat Marth.

Actually, Midna and Marth are probably at about the same level. Marth might have been character design SFFd a bit by Sephiroth last time.
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#249 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/18/2013 6:18:06 AM | message detail
I will say it again.

Epona > Snake.

Don't say you weren't warned.
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#250 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/18/2013 6:21:50 AM | message detail
If there is anyone that can beat a horse, it's Snake.
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Pts: 19/19 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard