Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1067

#101 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/17/2013 7:37:50 PM | message detail
How do characters like Captain Viridian even get into this contest? There are a ton of characters from under represented classics such as Lunar that rarely ever get in, and 500 other games.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan
#102 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/17/2013 7:38:59 PM | message detail
Because he got more noms.
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~Zen
#103 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 7:39:56 PM | message detail
Match XIX: (1) Sephiroth vs. (18) Midna vs. (27) Little Mac

Previous Contest

Sephiroth – 2010
71.80% against Marth
62.66% against Vincent Valentine
52.88% against Missingno
56.16% against Tifa Lockhart
47.04% against Solid Snake

Midna – 2010
36.37% against Sora

Little Mac – 2007
16.54% against Dante, Amaterasu and Matt

Analysis

Sephiroth is back hoping for a better performance than what he did last contest. While he is in no danger of losing the Final Fantasy VII characters have not looked impressive in this contest. While we do not have too much information on their opponents looking as bad as they had is not the way to show your strength. Maybe Sephiroth will fare better in a night match, but he does have to contend with the surge of anti-votes at the beginning, but those votes tend to show up in day matches as well, just not all at once.

As Twilight Princess continues to grow older so does the possibility of Midna becoming weaker. Skyward Sword has been released since the last contest and while it is not as huge of hit as Twilight Princess the game has taken the reigns of newest Zelda game. With Zelda being so popular on GameFAQs I feel Midna will not be too much weaker and even if she is I do not see her in danger of finishing in last.

Since 2007 Punch-Out!! for the Wii has been released making it the first game for him since the Super Nintendo. I expect him to be stronger, but at the same time the game was not a huge hit and it faded out rather quickly after its release. Still some recognition is better than no recognition, especially for a character that is largely unknown to the younger audiences.

After seeing the performance of the other Final Fantasy VII characters I do not believe Sephiroth can crack 60% in this match. For one thing Midna is not complete fodder and even Little Mac I do not see getting completely crushed. The board vote will be fun to watch, I expect him to fall below 45% at the start.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sephiroth > Midna and Little Mac

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sephiroth – 58.36%, Midna – 24.76%, Little Mac – 16.88%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#104 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 7:41:06 PM | message detail
How do characters like Captain Viridian even get into this contest? There are a ton of characters from under represented classics such as Lunar that rarely ever get in, and 500 other games.

It only takes a few noms to get in so a small group of people can easily get a character in the contest
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#105 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/17/2013 7:46:04 PM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
How do characters like Captain Viridian even get into this contest? There are a ton of characters from under represented classics such as Lunar that rarely ever get in, and 500 other games.


Because he got enough nominations.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#106 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 9:00:29 PM | message detail
ROFL
That is all.
#107 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:00:32 PM | message detail
lol Sephiroth


Sephiroth
26.09%
6 Votes

Midna
30.43%
7 Votes

Little Mac
43.48%
10 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#108 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/17/2013 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Sephiroth
29.63%
8 Votes
Your Pick

Midna
29.63%
8 Votes

Little Mac
40.74%
11 Votes
#109 | abdou | Posted 7/17/2013 9:00:46 PM | message detail
lol
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#110 | FFDragon | Posted 7/17/2013 9:00:59 PM | message detail
hahaa

hahahahahaha
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#111 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:15 PM | message detail
Well that's a board vote all right. 4th vote for Midna.
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#112 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:23 PM | message detail
SEPHIROTH NOT READY

HE WAS NOT READY FOR THE MAC ATTACK!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAxVTw5tVnA

Best early vote aww yeah (Mac leading as I post this!)
#113 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:32 PM | message detail
It took Sephiroth a good 45 seconds to hold the lead. Also, did we all grossly underestimate Little Mac or is he just popular on the board for some reason?
#114 | Qwaar | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:36 PM | message detail
Of course I completely forgot to do any picks for this match...gah!
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#115 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:43 PM | message detail
I love the Sephiroth board vote.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#116 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:01:44 PM | message detail
Nice to see the board vote give Mac some love
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#117 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/17/2013 9:02:13 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
It took Sephiroth a good 45 seconds to hold the lead. Also, did we all grossly underestimate Little Mac or is he just popular on the board for some reason?


VGCW marks maybe? Also Punch Out being a Good Series.
#118 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/17/2013 9:02:23 PM | message detail
Damn, second place looking pretty close!
#119 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 9:02:31 PM | message detail
Mac not giving up yet.
#120 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/17/2013 9:02:45 PM | message detail
And the freeze has happened.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#121 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/17/2013 9:02:48 PM | message detail
this is always fun
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#122 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:07 PM | message detail
Also man, Mac is keeping it really close to Midna! It won't last of course, but I'd laugh my ass off if he gave her a scare.
#123 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:16 PM | message detail
LITTLE MAC!!!!
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#124 | pjbasis | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:29 PM | message detail
#125 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:33 PM | message detail
Midna with a 6 vote lead at the freeze

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndaP9iieaok
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#126 | tgs2 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:34 PM | message detail
What kind of monster would hate the man who out lasted Sephiroth and buried Dracula in a coffin?
#127 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/17/2013 9:03:51 PM | message detail
Mac's doing it for Bazza.
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#128 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/17/2013 9:04:01 PM | message detail
Yay, just 24 hours till REYN TIME!
#129 | paulg235 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:04:11 PM | message detail
Hopefully this is a sign that he can actually win a match after being announced for Smash 4.
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The Gamer In Me
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#130 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:05:09 PM | message detail
Sephiroth below 50%

lololol
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#131 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/17/2013 9:05:32 PM | message detail
We should start a thread for spread betting on what time the freeze will occur each match.
#132 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/17/2013 9:06:22 PM | message detail
Seeing Little Mac do well with the board vote makes me sad we never got to see Doc Louis get past the vote-ins.
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#133 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/17/2013 9:06:30 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
17------218--------98.62
16------631--------96.51
15------1235------94.33
14------1975------89.52
13------2593------86.35
12------2667------82.98
11------2250------80.00
10------1583------73.78
9--------998--------67.74
8--------535--------57.76
7--------277--------50.90
6--------139--------40.29
5--------62----------29.03
4--------32----------28.13
3--------17----------11.76
2--------25----------4.00
1--------3------------0.00
0--------14----------0.00

The perfects were close to being perfect but ended up falling a bit short. -2 and better stay above 90 while -3s fall just a bit short. Overall, it's the high prediction percentage you would expected from a match like this.

Only 1 person fell off the Top 49. Cysi did not have Bowser winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#134 | paulg235 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:07:20 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/TxbbADI.png

Never change Seph board vote.
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The Gamer In Me
"Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream.
#135 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:07:55 PM | message detail
Almost 50% for Sephiroth

Little Mac falls off the edge
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#136 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/17/2013 9:08:17 PM | message detail
I'm one of the perfects left and I am holding my breath now because, holy damn, I have never had a streak this long.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#137 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:09:32 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Seeing Little Mac do well with the board vote makes me sad we never got to see Doc Louis get past the vote-ins.


And that update reminds us why Doc Louis never did.
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#138 | Kibago | Posted 7/17/2013 9:12:15 PM | message detail
...i missed the Sephiroth board vote? =(
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#139 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/17/2013 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Very small increase for Sephiroth on that update.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#140 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:13:32 PM | message detail
Glass Joe for Character Battle X.
#141 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:14:45 PM | message detail
Trend chart:

Time | Bowser | Archer | Meta | Votes
0:05 | 58.08% | 15.06% | 26.86% | 551
1:00 | 57.98% | 17.14% | 24.88% | 4795
2:00 | 61.52% | 14.83% | 23.65% | 3675
3:00 | 60.17% | 16.20% | 23.63% | 3216
4:00 | 62.31% | 13.97% | 23.72% | 2778
5:00 | 61.25% | 15.01% | 23.75% | 2632
6:00 | 58.78% | 15.02% | 26.19% | 2516
7:00 | 61.38% | 15.26% | 23.36% | 2333
8:00 | 63.25% | 14.50% | 22.24% | 2041
9:00 | 60.32% | 14.99% | 24.70% | 1895
10:00 | 61.50% | 13.23% | 25.26% | 1821
11:00 | 59.64% | 16.06% | 24.30% | 1712
12:00 | 60.85% | 16.64% | 22.51% | 1599

No real consistent trends here, but I'm starting to wonder if the lower vote totals are responsible for that.

X-Stats:

Bowser – 50.00%
Meta Knight – 28.45%
Archer – 20.25%

Bowser's prediction percentage was 81.22%
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#142 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:14:57 PM | message detail
They had their chance in 2010, unless Nintendo goes for another Punch-Out game.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 16/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth and Morrigan
#143 | creativename | Posted 7/17/2013 9:15:12 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
What kind of monster would hate the man who out lasted Sephiroth and buried Dracula in a coffin?

What does this mean? I don't get the reference.
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#144 | tgs2 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:16:17 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
tgs2 posted...
What kind of monster would hate the man who out lasted Sephiroth and buried Dracula in a coffin?

What does this mean? I don't get the reference.


http://vgcw.wikia.com/wiki/Video_Game_Championship_Wrestling_Wiki

A good start I guess.
#145 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:18:14 PM | message detail
I think for tomorrow's night match I'm going for Reyn > Clementine > Reyn for my Expert Challenge pick.

I have Reyn winning in my bracket, but if he loses it'll be to Spyro. I'll take a 0 than a -6. Well, I could still get -4. That would suck. So, let's go Clementine get 2nd place!
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#146 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:18:59 PM | message detail
Just bank if you're that worried about it dude
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#147 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:18:59 PM | message detail
And Sephiroth isn't breaking 60%
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#148 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:19:28 PM | message detail
Never bank!
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#149 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:19:49 PM | message detail
Eh, Sephy's got time. 60% probably won't happen, but he's going to kill this match overnight.
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#150 | legendmusketeer | Posted 7/17/2013 9:21:09 PM | message detail
Sephy not already breaking 60% brings tears to my eyes.
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LM