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Snagglepuss.


http://www.desura.com/games/chester

http://bbg-games.com/

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~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

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~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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The cream of Icehawk fanboyism.

Snagglepuss?
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."

Eh, it's Nintendo/Sony/Sony

Sora's been on Nintendo more last gen than any other platform!
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http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif

And handhelds in particular, right in Pikachu's wheelhouse!
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http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif

Yeah, calling Sora a Sony character probably isn't accurate. He's more likely to overlap with Pikachu than Drake.
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tune in tokyo 142.94

Yeah, Sora and Drake don't even share a game on the same system!
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http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif

Lol at Kirby > Sephiroth. That will not happen.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan

Kirby not even getting second in that match!
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tune in tokyo 142.94

If Luigi's there, he definitely won't.

If Big Boss is, he probably will, if it's the sprite round as usual.
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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png

I wonder what kind of 80% + type of number Big Boss is going to throw up against "Peacock" and "Captain Viridian". Such fodder...
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan

All about the year of
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tune in tokyo 142.94

Nah, I can't see Big Boss getting 80% in that match. Neither of those characters are Chester tier.

They're both probably Zero tier though! Big Boss could get 70-75% there.
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http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png
http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png

I am more brazen about Pikachu's chances. I have Sora/Pikachu/Blue and think the rat can just surge through, SFFing Blue sufficiently that he doesn't affect him too much. I have much less respect for Sora than most seem to though - I don't think the KH3 announcement really generated much hype and if anything he might be worth less than the 45% he made on Bowser last time.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information

But if the handheld KH games were of any reasonable strength, the series and its characters wouldn't be in a popularity tailspin. The one KH handheld title for which I've heard the most praise is Birth by Sleep, and that's still a PSP exclusive (far as I know). In fact, I think the only handheld game which even features Sora was the original remake on 3DS, and I'm not sure if such a release would have any non-negligible effect. For practical purposes, Sora is almost as exclusively "Sony" as Drake is.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg

I admit that the Big Boss vs Luigi pick there is tough but lets be real. Kirby isn't beating Sephiroth regardless of who else is in that match.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan

I'm voting Viridian for one reason alone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25m3Gk7mRQM

mmmmMMMMMmmmm
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner

Guru Pick Summary for Match 111:

243 - Sephiroth
2 - Kirby
1 - Elizabeth (lol)
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan

Sora's been in, what, 3 games that were released on Nintendo platforms last gen? I don't think you should group Sora in with typical Sony anyway. Kingdom Hearts is very different from typical Sony stuff in that it's much stronger in America than it is in Europe. Sora is very Nintendo-ish with his trends.
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http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif

KH 1.5 HD. Sora gonna steal Drake's votes.
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner

And I wouldn't take Sora's 2010 performance to mean the series is in a tailspin. I'm pretty sure none of those handheld games were even released yet.

*checks*

Well, 358/2 Days had been out for a few months, but that one probably had the least effect on him.

Plus, Sora had all night matches in 2010 anyway, so that wasn't a fair gauge of his strength.
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http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo22vfguji1qzxr43.gif

Does it even matter that much considering how disappointing Sora was in 2010 and considering he's likely to be weaker now? Sora needs a third entrant who would hurt Pikachu more, and Drake isn't that guy.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg

I think you're underselling Sora by quite a bit if you think he needs outside help to beat Pikachu.

Or more likely you're overselling Pikachu.
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http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif

Wait wait wait. Did Yoblazer just call Dream Drop Distance a KH1 remake?
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner

POKEFEAR
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*shrug*

You're talking to a guy who thinks Kirby is going to be Sephiroth.
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Point Total: 18/18. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sephy Day: Morrigan

Also, 24 hour Sora in 2010 is probably worth 47-48% on Bowser, which is better than I'd take Pikachu to do. It's not a slam dunk that KH is weaker now because those handhelds ARE out. We don't actually know what kind of effect they'll have because we haven't seen Sora in action with them behind him other than Rivalry Rumble. Again, I wouldn't group Sora in with typical Square or Sony. Kingdom Hearts is kind of its own thing.
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http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg

It's been over three years since the last contest. I think it's very reasonable to presume Sora is weaker now than he was in 2010, as 2010 indicated a decline in strength from the 4way years. Sora/Pikachu would have been a very good match three years ago; I have no problem calling Pikachu the 1v1 favorite now.

Remember that the handheld games are maybe a hop-step above "worthless" and that the last KH game with meaningful contest strength was released over seven years ago. The series missed an entire generation; you can't go on a drought like that without losing strength.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif

Nah, Sora cleanly beats Pikachu 1-on-1 in 2010 in a 24-hour match. I don't see any reason to believe otherwise. Pikachu is not on Bowser and Charizard's level.
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http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif

hellfire104 posted...

Guru Pick Summary for Match 111:

243 - Sephiroth
2 - Kirby
1 - Elizabeth (lol)

That should have 1 - Big Boss.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

If you truly have Big Boss, then they entered your bracket in wrong.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif

So close to a perfect prediction for Bowser here in the Oracle.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

Yeah, I sent Ngamer a message to correct that.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

What's the longest we've gone into a contest without the Guru Cookie missing a match?

*luster signal*
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#twitterFAQs

LeonhartFour posted...

Nah, Sora cleanly beats Pikachu 1-on-1 in 2010 in a 24-hour match. I don't see any reason to believe otherwise. Pikachu is not on Bowser and Charizard's level.

Let's be fair though: going from Pikachu's perceived level in 2010 (45% on Snake) to what you'd expect him to do going off of past years (closeish to Sora) is an enormous drop. We're talking about dropping five percent off his Snake result to be even with Squall, then probably at least three percent more to be even with Sora. That would arguably be the single strongest case of pic factor ever, including the debut of Big Boss' Naked Snake pic. It's not crazy to say Pikachu could beat Sora in a mano a mano 1v1 match.

It's totally bonkers to say Pikachu can win a match with Fox siphoning Ninty support off him though...!

KanzarisKelshen posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Nah, Sora cleanly beats Pikachu 1-on-1 in 2010 in a 24-hour match. I don't see any reason to believe otherwise. Pikachu is not on Bowser and Charizard's level.

Let's be fair though: going from Pikachu's perceived level in 2010 (45% on Snake) to what you'd expect him to do going off of past years (closeish to Sora) is an enormous drop. We're talking about dropping five percent off his Snake result to be even with Squall, then probably at least three percent more to be even with Sora. That would arguably be the single strongest case of pic factor ever, including the debut of Big Boss' Naked Snake pic. It's not crazy to say Pikachu could beat Sora in a mano a mano 1v1 match.

It's totally bonkers to say Pikachu can win a match with Fox siphoning Ninty support off him though...!

Or Blue.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

That 45% was the sprite round, to be fair. Then again, he'll be in the sprite round again versus Sora, but Sora won't have Solid S***-level sprites to weight him down like Pikachu will Fox or Blue.

Yet for some reason I still have Pikachu winning that match. Don't know what I was thinking, but then again it's the one standout thing besides Missingno > Squall and Mega Man > Charizard that my bracket has going for it.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

KanzarisKelshen posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Nah, Sora cleanly beats Pikachu 1-on-1 in 2010 in a 24-hour match. I don't see any reason to believe otherwise. Pikachu is not on Bowser and Charizard's level.

Let's be fair though: going from Pikachu's perceived level in 2010 (45% on Snake) to what you'd expect him to do going off of past years (closeish to Sora) is an enormous drop. We're talking about dropping five percent off his Snake result to be even with Squall, then probably at least three percent more to be even with Sora. That would arguably be the single strongest case of pic factor ever, including the debut of Big Boss' Naked Snake pic. It's not crazy to say Pikachu could beat Sora in a mano a mano 1v1 match.

It's totally bonkers to say Pikachu can win a match with Fox siphoning Ninty support off him though...!

*Every* Sprite Snake match ranks up with the biggest cases of pic factor ever. It took YEARS for people to grapple with the enormity of how overrated Frog was after he posted those 2004 numbers, or Bowser after 2005. Pikachu is nowhere close to those numbers, the numbers are functionally worthless. He has other matches to his credit; citing that match only detracts from his legitimate arguments.
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From: special_sauce | #033

What's the longest we've gone into a contest without the Guru Cookie missing a match?

Last year was just over two rounds (50 total matches).
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-.. --- - ... / .- -. -.. / -.. .- ... .... . ...

I don't buy Blue doing anything, it's just too crazy for me. Let's assume a worst possible scenario case for Fox, where Wolf holds up like a champion, they share a voter base fully and he drains 30% of Fox's votes while taking none of Blue's. Let's also be super generous and say Blue pulls a Sephiroth and is only a couple points behind his lead, in defiance of all trends. Lastly, let's assume both Fox and Red's Xstat values are legit (this one is easier to swallow, I think). So what do we get?

Fox: 30.67*0.70 = 21.46
Blue: 25:59

That gives Blue a 57-43 win. Comfortable, but a little worrisome for a best case scenario...now let's assume Wolf gets fodderized and pulls 20% of Fox's vote, and still none of Blue's. That puts Fox's value at 24.53. Now we get a projected 52.5 margin of victory for Blue. So let me sum it up like this: Assuming Wolf leeches NO votes from Blue, AND assuming Blue fully resists SFF from Fox, AND assuming Wolf doesn't fold like a house of cards in the face of a close match and the worst possible character for him to face, AND assuming Blue completely defies the Second Character Law and isn't worth 66%ish of what Red was worth, Blue wins comfortably. If one of the first three fails to be true, Blue wins narrowly. If two of those fail to be true, Fox wins with some room to spare. If all three prove untrue, Fox wins cleanly. And if the last assumption is not true? Fox demolishes, and literally wins the match regardless of how big an albatross Wolf becomes.

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5161.jpg
http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5162.jpg
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!

Does Sephiroth look like a girl cosplaying as him to anybody else? Dude should really get some meat on those bones.

Him and Midna aside, daaaaaaamn, those are some fine pics. Edgeworth lookin' good, 47 looking professional, Mac ready to give the MAC ATTACK and Morrigan ready to show all those hos who's the queen of TJF! Really nice work tbh.

So, does Mac have a chance to beat Midna for 2nd?
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

It's amazing how Solid Snake can still win with a huge pic disadvantage.

Hopefully, BB can do the same... hopefully. Cause BB is awesome.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

hellfire104 posted...

I wonder what kind of 80% + type of number Big Boss is going to throw up against "Peacock" and "Captain Viridian". Such fodder...

Holy crap. I never even looked at Big Boss' competition that match. That is going to be a BRUTAL beatdown. He might even surpass Mewtwo!!

I've never even heard of the games those two are from. I mean they can't possibly be weaker than Chester+Zero(999)...right? I mean that physically is like impossible isn't it?

But Big Boss is well ahead of Mewtwo...and Peacock+Captain whatever might well not be all that much stronger than Chester+Zero(999). This could easily be the biggest laugher of the contest.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Mac doesn't have any other pics?

Mac needs SSB.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard

Skullgirls was a big fighting game with a lot of hype in the community that just kind of disappeared after it came out. There's still a big following but it's super underground. They came out of the woodwork to throw money at its creators for DLC, but the fact that it wasn't on the main stage at EVO this year speaks volumes.

And VVVVVV has a lot of fans I guess. I don't know how many would vote Viridian over Big Boss.
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~Zen

Wow the Meta-Knight picture today is awful. Not like it matters though.

Oh, and also, Skullgirls is an ensemble cast, and while Peacock is maaaybe the second most popular (I don't even know), most of the rest would have at least had TJF to give them a boost. Peacock is 8, though, so no dice there:

http://i.imgur.com/IAXhl2j.jpg
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~Zen

Captain Viridian will probably keep things from being an insane massive blowout just from his appearance: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5165

Though I think it'll more mean "Big Boss only gets 85% instead of 90%."
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Why was Peacock chosen among that cast?
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard