Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1066

#401 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 12:28:48 PM | message detail
Just wondering
There is no chance Little Mac gets enough joke votes to pass Midna right? (JOKEFEAR,I dunno)
#402 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 12:32:57 PM | message detail
I don't think people consider Little Mac a joke character.
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#403 | abdou | Posted 7/17/2013 12:34:22 PM | message detail
I am expecting Sephiroth to bomb spectacularly , he was always the most anti voted FF7 character and with FF7 looking weaker than ever I think both Little Mac and Midna will look pretty damn good
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#404 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/17/2013 12:38:57 PM | message detail
Little Mac won't be a joke-character, but beating Midna will be a tall order.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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#405 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 12:53:36 PM | message detail
Little Mac beat Mike Tyson.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#406 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/17/2013 1:06:22 PM | message detail
Hard to argue with that logic...!


As for today's match: Bowser's impressing. I thought MK would do better than this, though I guess it's hard to tell how exactly three-ways affect matches yet too. Bowser remains the favorite against Sub-Zero...and while I don't think he has what it takes to win over Sonic/Vincent, this could mean Sonic has to stand up all the more to Bowser if they really share a quasi-Nintendo connection. It should be exciting.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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#407 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:08:16 PM | message detail
Well, Sonic's problem was always if he could handle Bowser being in the match with him, I think. I'd take Sonic > Vincent and Bowser 1-on-1, and these first round performances haven't done much to change my mind.
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#408 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:10:54 PM | message detail
People have been mostly ignoring it, but Vincent (and Barret's) first round performances were atrocious for what their strength levels should be. At this point I'd take Bowser>Vincent before Vincent>Sonic - I might just do that, actually.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#409 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:11:49 PM | message detail
Nah, it hasn't really been ignored, but I don't think you can really gauge FFVII by what they do against weaker characters. They always do their best work against the big boys. We'll know a lot more about Vincent's chances next round.
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#410 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:14:24 PM | message detail
That's always seemed like a lame argument to me. FF7 has scored plenty of blowouts in the past. If Vincent is failing to hit 60% against KOS-MOS, another RPG character, then he's probably going to have major issues. Does KOS-MOS even beat someone like Marth?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#411 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:16:04 PM | message detail
What does Sephiroth have to get tonight to bring up FFVII for the depths that it fell to.

I'd take Bowser > Vincent. Unfortunately, I have Vincent > Sonic/Bowser in my bracket.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#412 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:17:07 PM | message detail
It may seem like a lame argument, but it's absolutely true, at least nowadays. You can bring up what FFVII did in the past, but this is a different FFVII now. Yes, it's weaker, but that's mostly because the anti-voting is worse than ever, and that shows up way more against fodder than it does against strong characters. Cloud looked atrocious against Ridley in 2010, but it didn't stop him from scoring better against Link in 2010 than he did in 2006.
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#413 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 1:17:26 PM | message detail
poor KOS-MOS never gets any respect
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#414 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/17/2013 1:18:09 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Seph failed to break 60%, and neither would I be concerned. I don't think it's possible for FFVII to score the blowouts anymore, doesn't mean anything. By comparison, Sonic can get 90% against fodder for all he wants, he'll still struggle against Vincent.
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#415 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/17/2013 1:18:40 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
That's always seemed like a lame argument to me. FF7 has scored plenty of blowouts in the past. If Vincent is failing to hit 60% against KOS-MOS, another RPG character, then he's probably going to have major issues. Does KOS-MOS even beat someone like Marth?


Not sure if KOS-MOS beats Marth right now, but I don't think we saw the same Marth against Phoenix that got 28.2% against Sephiroth either.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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#416 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:18:52 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS is like a new age Pinnocchio.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#417 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:19:20 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm honestly expecting Seph to drop a stinker tonight, and I expect the board to be calling for his (and FFVII's) head afterward, but I think he'll be fine going forward.
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#418 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:20:05 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
but I don't think we saw the same Marth against Phoenix that got 28.2% against Sephiroth either.


Because of FFVII anti-voting!

Seriously, one of my reasons for picking Phoenix > Marth was that Marth was probably overrated in the stats from facing Sephiroth in 2010.
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#419 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:20:51 PM | message detail
Sephiroth/Morrigan/Spyro, Clem, Reyn.

Sephiroth isn't being challenged but he'll score 50% in Rounds 1 & 2.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#420 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/17/2013 1:21:09 PM | message detail
In my eyes, Sephiroth needs to put 63%+ on these two Nintendo characters to keep my respect

For a night match that isn't saying much!
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#421 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:22:19 PM | message detail
Did Ridley even overperform by that much on Cloud? He ended up at 28% and would've ended up lower in a 24-hour match. I don't think a 2-3% overperformance is something to freak out about.

KOS-MOS is also not Nintendo, which is the main benefactor of FF anti-whatever to begin with. She's another RPG character - that hasn't had a game in years, no Project X Zone doesn't count - that Vincent should've had no trouble dispatching, like

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2093
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2536
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2864
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3253

Instead, we got

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5156

That is not the performance of someone who beat Squall, Ganondorf, and Crono.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#422 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:22:49 PM | message detail
I think he'll score higher than Vincent but not by much, predicting high 50s.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#423 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:23:45 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
That's always seemed like a lame argument to me. FF7 has scored plenty of blowouts in the past. If Vincent is failing to hit 60% against KOS-MOS, another RPG character, then he's probably going to have major issues. Does KOS-MOS even beat someone like Marth?


Not sure if KOS-MOS beats Marth right now, but I don't think we saw the same Marth against Phoenix that got 28.2% against Sephiroth either.


Marth might have dropped/been overrated in the stats, but considering Fire Emblem has been on the rise and Nightmare being completely fodderized in that match despite looking good as recent as 2 years ago, I'd hold off before blaming everything on that.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#424 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:24:54 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I don't think a 2-3% overperformance is something to freak out about.


And yet people did!

Mostly because this was more than a slight underperformance. Cloud was supposed to quadruple Ridley based on the 2007 stats.
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#425 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 1:26:06 PM | message detail
time to give up on stats, people

this is the kind of thinking that gets you say mega man has a decent shot at beating mario
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#426 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:28:39 PM | message detail
What stats? Vincent's performance was just bad. KOS-MOS has had no reason to be better than she was before and Vincent underperformed a ton against her.

If you're blaming this on 'FF7 anti-votes', well guess what, those anti-votes aren't gonna go away! It's just part of their strength right now. That still isn't a good thing for them.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#427 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:29:34 PM | message detail
They aren't going to go away, but they're more prominent against fodder. I mean, you're not saying anything I didn't just say!
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#428 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 1:30:08 PM | message detail
I was mostly talking about the Bowser > Vincent thing.
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#429 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:31:22 PM | message detail
Does KOS-MOS beat Midna?
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#430 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:31:57 PM | message detail
Except not really. FF7 anti-votes are prominent against Nintendo. Vincent still obliterated Guybrush and Cloud still obliterated Chris and Ryu last year. I really can't see Vincent getting a ton of anti-votes over another RPG character.

And if you're calling KOS-MOS fodder, then Vincent is really in trouble, because he couldn't break 60% against fodder.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#431 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/17/2013 1:35:25 PM | message detail | (edited)
Marth might as well not even be a Fire Emblem character. Shadow Dragon was fairly disliked, none of his other games came to the U.S., and he's a pretty boring guy in the FE games he's in. The dude is a total Smash leech.
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#432 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:34:31 PM | message detail
Bowser>Vincent would've been a decent pick before the brackets closed! They aren't that far apart to begin with. That hardly seems like an earth-shattering stathead pick to me, you kinda have to ignore a bunch of stats to go for it anyway.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#433 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:36:22 PM | message detail
FFVII anti-votes are prominent against everything.

Yes, Vincent obliterated Guybrush, but that was still viewed as a disappointing performance because he didn't get 83% like Bowser had. Cloud beat Ryu because Ryu is actually a strong character.

And I dunno if KOS-MOS is fodder, but those anti-votes had to go somewhere, and it's a lot more appealing to vote for the hot robot chick than some old lamer named Dunban.
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#434 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:38:36 PM | message detail | (edited)
Just how many anti-votes are you considering here? Because even if we're very generous and say that 10% of the votes between them were strictly anti-votes, meaning Vincent gets 65-35 normally, that's still a bad result for him.

Either Vincent is weaker or he has so many anti-votes that he's...still weaker.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#435 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:39:42 PM | message detail
Bowser was always better than Vincent.

Bowser > Sora
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#436 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:39:47 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure I've been saying all along that FFVII is weaker because they're getting anti-voted more than ever! I am not arguing against this premise! I have Sonic winning the division for a reason. The anti-voting just shows up more when they're facing crap because the effect they have on your percentage is more prominent when you're up big than when you're in a close match.
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#437 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:40:07 PM | message detail
I remember when Sora was favored in that match lol.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:40:11 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Bowser was always better than Vincent.

Bowser > Sora


uhhhh are you trying to argue Sora would beat Vincent

I hope that's not what you're getting at
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#439 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:41:15 PM | message detail
Who knows, with KH3 coming.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#440 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:41:57 PM | message detail
I know in 2010 there's no way it would've happened.
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#441 | White_Tiger | Posted 7/17/2013 1:42:12 PM | message detail
so why do people anti vote FFVII so much anyway? Zelda keeps on winning but FFVII gets the hate? oO

and maybe this is because we have never seen 3-way matches before, I think Vincent would have done a lot better against KOS-MOS if it was 1vs1
#442 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:45:00 PM | message detail
In 2010, I had Bowser > Sora.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#443 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:45:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
And again, I think chalking it all up to anti-votes is a lame excuse. Based on the first two performances we've seen from them, FF7 just looks inherently weaker. This isn't something that we didn't consider pre-contest.

Maybe in the end everything will be fine and dandy for FF7, but as of right now? 62% on Professor Layton and 60% on KOS-MOS is just plain bad. If Sephiroth looks like utter crap tomorrow, will all the same arguments be made to defend them?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#444 | KommunistKoala | Posted 7/17/2013 1:49:06 PM | message detail
#445 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:49:38 PM | message detail
Midna almost beat Mewtwo once

Seems legit
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#446 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 1:52:06 PM | message detail
Midna's worth like 20 Chesters.
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#447 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:52:36 PM | message detail
My Oracle prediction for Bowser was 60.16%. Not too far off, with 7 hours left.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#448 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:53:00 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
If Sephiroth looks like utter crap tomorrow, will all the same arguments be made to defend them?


Pretty sure I made these arguments back in 2010, too!

Worked out okay for the most part.
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#449 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:54:11 PM | message detail
And it's not like I'm defending Vincent because I have him winning! This isn't trying to rationalize a pick or something! This is just honestly what I think happens with FFVII now.
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#450 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 1:55:04 PM | message detail
Sephiroth lost to Snake and Cloud almost lost to Snake and Samus. Not so sure I would agree with you, there.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.