Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1066

#351 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:05:16 AM | message detail
81th vote for Archer.Man I forgot to come at this page to vote sooner lol.
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#352 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/17/2013 9:06:45 AM | message detail
LeonhartFone posted...
Garrus was above the fodder line a while ago.


I don't think we could have been completely certain that he was above the fodder line until we saw him in action.
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#353 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 9:09:19 AM | message detail
Added an Overall Top 10 Biggest Blowouts and Closest Matches sheet to my 1v1 Results, as well as a Top 5 of each for each division.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai0bQSQxdsSqdDJrWDhDaWJlaTVxNFNMYjRqYWVSZHc&usp=sharing
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#354 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:09:52 AM | message detail
218 perfects left
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POKEFEAR
#355 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:12:02 AM | message detail
Bowser over 70% on Meta Knight.
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#356 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:20:08 AM | message detail
Perfect Division 2 in Expert Challenge.
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Pts: 17/17 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#357 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:26:53 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Perfect Division 2 in Expert Challenge.


Great! Continue to report the status of your bracket and expert challenge every 12 hours. Really interested in it.
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#358 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 9:28:16 AM | message detail
JustForFun1988 posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
Perfect Division 2 in Expert Challenge.


Great! Continue to report the status of your bracket and expert challenge every 12 hours. Really interested in it.


And keep on posting your wonderful insightful posts, buddy.
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#359 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:28:24 AM | message detail
Who's this guy?^^^
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#360 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:30:35 AM | message detail
Anyway, Bowser should be able to break 60% here.

Bowser vs. Sub-Zero should be fun. A Song of Fire & Ice, get hyped.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#361 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/17/2013 9:31:05 AM | message detail
Big Archer cut on Meta there.
#362 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 9:31:16 AM | message detail
Archer cutting MK

Someone somewhere is rallying!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#363 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 9:31:50 AM | message detail
Bowser you're going the wrong way...
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#364 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:32:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
Added an Overall Top 10 Biggest Blowouts and Closest Matches sheet to my 1v1 Results, as well as a Top 5 of each for each division.

I'll be doing the usual Top 5/10 stats after the 20th match (tomorrow night) as well
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#365 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/17/2013 9:34:01 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Archer cutting MK

Someone somewhere is rallying!


That was mainly MK falling off
#366 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/17/2013 9:39:27 AM | message detail
Who do we have to blame for all these visual novel scrubs
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#367 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 9:41:52 AM | message detail
I think there's only 3 of them. And this isn't even Edgeworth's first contest so 2 if you don't count him
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#368 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 9:43:55 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright
Edgeworth
Archer

Pretty sure that's every VN character that got in.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#369 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/17/2013 9:45:27 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Phoenix Wright
Edgeworth
Archer

Pretty sure that's every VN character that got in.


Zero (999) is a VN character if you consider Phoenix and Edgeworth ones as well.
#370 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 9:46:07 AM | message detail
Oh yeah, forgot about Zero.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#371 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 9:46:12 AM | message detail
Yeah.

I didn't count Phoenix Wright because he's obviously not a scrub
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#372 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/17/2013 9:47:52 AM | message detail
Ragna is one too if you really want to stretch the definition of a VN

http://vndb.org/v5381
#373 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 9:48:31 AM | message detail
Honestly Phoenix Wright and 999 could be argued as being closer to adventure games anyway. Archer is the only pure VN character
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#374 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/17/2013 9:52:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
2Dover3D posted...
Ragna is one too if you really want to stretch the definition of a VN

http://vndb.org/v5381


C'mon now, let's not get TOO crazy with the definition...
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#375 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/17/2013 9:51:29 AM | message detail
2Dover3D posted...
Ragna is one too if you really want to stretch the definition of a VN


Then that means Persona 4 and MK characters are visual novel people too, then.
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#376 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 9:58:46 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I don't think we could have been completely certain that he was above the fodder line until we saw him in action.


I meant his percentage on Sub-Zero put him past the fodder line a long time ago, well before he hit 45% on him.
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#377 | superange128 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:12:22 AM | message detail
I dont consdier Phoenix Wright or 999 VNs
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#378 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 10:14:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
Anyway, trend chart:

Time | Garrus | Subby | Frank | Votes
0:05 | 32.31% | 55.02% | 12.67% | 947
1:00 | 36.30% | 51.86% | 11.84% | 5060
2:00 | 36.85% | 50.96% | 12.19% | 3061
3:00 | 39.51% | 48.22% | 12.27% | 2387
4:00 | 41.07% | 48.13% | 10.79% | 1955
5:00 | 41.83% | 48.10% | 10.07% | 1499
6:00 | 39.64% | 50.73% | 9.64% | 1370
7:00 | 40.06% | 50.31% | 9.62% | 1590
8:00 | 41.09% | 46.72% | 12.19% | 1813
9:00 | 42.25% | 48.25% | 9.50% | 2052
10:00 | 43.23% | 47.38% | 9.40% | 2267
11:00 | 42.54% | 47.40% | 10.06% | 2405
12:00 | 43.70% | 46.26% | 10.04% | 2311

If you were wondering if Mass Effect was more day oriented or night oriented, this should answer your question. Kinda surprised Sub-Zero got off to such a strong start. Most fighting game characters don't have good opening votes. Might have been the bracket vote at work.

X-Stats:

Sub-Zero – 50.00%
Garrus Vakarian – 45.01%
Frank West – 18.13%

Sub-Zero's prediction percentage was 58.54%
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#379 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 10:21:48 AM | message detail
Pretty impressive show so far by Bowser, I think. I know it's LFF'd Meta Knight, but I'd have to rank his competition as better than Yoshi's. Plus, he's beating Meta Knight by more than Luigi did so far.

Different format and all that, but still, I like what I'm seeing.
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#380 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 10:25:17 AM | message detail
Mass Effect appears to be day-oriented, but I thought previous contests proved the series to...aw whatever. We already know that Knights of the Old Republic is day-oriented, makes perfect sense for Mass Effect to follow suit.

How we have a better gauge on KOTOR than Mass Effect is anyone's guess. Wait is any KOTOR character even in this contest? I forget, don't remember any being here though.
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#381 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/17/2013 10:25:34 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
X-Stats:

Sub-Zero – 50.00%
Garrus Vakarian – 45.01%
Frank West – 18.13%


Yess my original prediction of 55-45 was just about perfect
#382 | Kibago | Posted 7/17/2013 10:33:33 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Added an Overall Top 10 Biggest Blowouts and Closest Matches sheet to my 1v1 Results, as well as a Top 5 of each for each division.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai0bQSQxdsSqdDJrWDhDaWJlaTVxNFNMYjRqYWVSZHc&usp=sharing


i liked reading the top 10, i know i'll be checking back on it. thanks for doing it!
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#383 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:40:39 AM | message detail
Reading old Board 8 articles feel...weird
First the example I gave about Agent 47 that people prediceted to be Neo Tanner,and now I see that in 2008,Mewtwo getting second place in a poll against Cloud,Squall and Sora was the most surprising result of 2008...?
That was pretty much the biggest SFF in contest History

I don't really feel POKEFEAR exist,people just underestimate Pokemon for some reason
Charizard>Squall any day,seriously
#384 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/17/2013 10:51:13 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Reading old Board 8 articles feel...weird
First the example I gave about Agent 47 that people prediceted to be Neo Tanner,and now I see that in 2008,Mewtwo getting second place in a poll against Cloud,Squall and Sora was the most surprising result of 2008...?
That was pretty much the biggest SFF in contest History

I don't really feel POKEFEAR exist,people just underestimate Pokemon for some reason
Charizard>Squall any day,seriously


This is silly; the average bracketer doesn't consider SFF. Board 8 saw Mewtwo's advancement pretty easily in 2008, the only real surprise was how horribly weak he was (nearly lost to Midna in Round 2).

Which I forgot as well, given that despite the fact that I'm still perfect that I have Mewtwo > Vincent. Whoops.
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#385 | LordOfDabu | Posted 7/17/2013 10:52:16 AM | message detail
It's not so much people underestimating but just a big change in trends.

Remember, this is what we used to have to go on:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/946
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1306
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1618
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#386 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 10:52:55 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Reading old Board 8 articles feel...weird
First the example I gave about Agent 47 that people prediceted to be Neo Tanner,and now I see that in 2008,Mewtwo getting second place in a poll against Cloud,Squall and Sora was the most surprising result of 2008...?
That was pretty much the biggest SFF in contest History

I don't really feel POKEFEAR exist,people just underestimate Pokemon for some reason
Charizard>Squall any day,seriously


This is silly; the average bracketer doesn't consider SFF. Board 8 saw Mewtwo's advancement pretty easily in 2008, the only real surprise was how horribly weak he was (nearly lost to Midna in Round 2).

Which I forgot as well, given that despite the fact that I'm still perfect that I have Mewtwo > Vincent. Whoops.
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Oh yeah this is based upon brackets % right
#387 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 10:53:44 AM | message detail
Mewtwo was favored to win that before the contest started, I believe. It's just that when he actually got his matches and barely beat Midna and turned in some fairly pathetic performances, people started doubting if he could really pull it off or not. If anything the weakness he showed before that match was the bigger surprise.
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#388 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 7/17/2013 10:54:58 AM | message detail
today is going to be a good day for my oracle
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#389 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 10:57:35 AM | message detail
oh great KARMA HUNTER is back

snake is definitely going to beat cloud now
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#390 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/17/2013 10:58:47 AM | message detail
LordOfDabu posted...
It's not so much people underestimating but just a big change in trends.

Remember, this is what we used to have to go on:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/946
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1306
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1618


This was before the 4th generation (the DS games) were launched. Pokemon got a huge boost in popularity with the DS games.
#391 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/17/2013 11:04:40 AM | message detail
The Mana Sword posted...
oh great KARMA HUNTER is back

snake is definitely going to beat cloud now


That is a result I have in my signature infallibly perfect bracket.

I also have Mewtwo > Vincent, Ryu > X, Shepard > Aerith, Big Boss > Luigi, Squall > Missingno, if anyone wants to crib from its unfailing wisdom.
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#392 | SubDeity | Posted 7/17/2013 11:06:17 AM | message detail
Pokemon didn't boom in sales. I think the big shift was the site growing up and changing Pokemon from an oversaturated fad into a nostalgic childhood memory.
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#393 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 11:08:49 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
LordOfDabu posted...
It's not so much people underestimating but just a big change in trends.

Remember, this is what we used to have to go on:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/946
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1306
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1618


This was before the 4th generation (the DS games) were launched. Pokemon got a huge boost in popularity with the DS games.


Black and White helped pretty much too
Now if only this contest was in October..
Charizard>Mario?
#394 | Karma Hunter | Posted 7/17/2013 11:12:22 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...

Black and White helped pretty much too
Now if only this contest was in October..
Charizard>Mario?


Charizard already tried and failed with a release happening during his matches and a massive bandwagon. He's never going to beat Mario.
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#395 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/17/2013 11:26:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
Sub-Zero vs. Aeris, who ya got?


Aeris without a problem, but Shepard should be a good deal above Garrus. Shep is the main character, he's the one on the covers, he's the one in commercials, etc. I've been disagreeing with people who've called his/her Round 1 performance "poor." Shep got a bad picture and still managed 54% in a poll with a character that was clearly serving as a Nintendo magnet, albeit a weak one. With a traditional Male Shep pic, he may have pushed for the high 50s against competition that could have been stronger than Yoshi's (Yoshi scored 60%). That... easily establishes him as the favorite against Aeris imo, especially since the third character is another female jRPG representative.


Sub-Zero with ease. What's a ninja gotta do to get some respect? He'd wipe the floor with any Shep, book it. I'd take a sig bet on Subs finishing higher on the Xstats than Shep.
#396 | NewerShadow | Posted 7/17/2013 11:49:27 AM | message detail
From: KanzarisKelshen | #395
Sub-Zero with ease. What's a ninja gotta do to get some respect? He'd wipe the floor with any Shep, book it. I'd take a sig bet on Subs finishing higher on the Xstats than Shep.

So you would have Shepard getting less on Link directly than Sub-Zero gets behind two rounds of losses? (Bowser > Sub-Zero, ??? > Bowser, Link > ???)? Because that's essentially what you're saying here.
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#397 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/17/2013 11:51:58 AM | message detail
Low prediction for Sub-Zero.I guess people went with high seed.
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#398 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/17/2013 11:54:07 AM | message detail
Already 2013 and people are still underestimating Sub-Zero, pretty confident that he would beat Aeris with how vulnerable FF7 has looked this year.
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#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 12:06:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I also have Mewtwo > Vincent, Ryu > X, Shepard > Aerith, Big Boss > Luigi, Squall > Missingno, if anyone wants to crib from its unfailing wisdom.


I'm willing to overlook Mewtwo > Vincent for the sake of the rest of these.
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#400 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 12:20:24 PM | message detail
Prediction percentage isn't too surprising, I would assume Mass Effect would get Halo-like support in predictions.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser