Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1066

#251 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 10:47:03 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I don't think this match is completely representative of Frank. He isn't strong but he wouldn't be quadrupled by Sub-Zero.


Garrus hurting him?
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#252 | LOLContests | Posted 7/16/2013 10:50:14 PM | message detail | (edited)
ZenOfThunder posted...
Yeah, but like, Frank is the main character of two games, a character in two downloadable games, top tier in Ultimate Marvel 3, in Project X Zone and Tatsunoko vs. Capcom, and is generally all-around likable and goofy.

Maybe he wouldn't be stronger than Ada (who was in like the best game ever) but I'd like to think he'd get more than 34% on her. He's just so unreasonably weak. He has so much going for him but he's so far down the fodder chain.


Having plenty of games doesn't matter if barely any of them are popular.
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#253 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 10:51:25 PM | message detail
WELL ACCORDING TO THE NEVER-FLAWED ZEN LOGIC:

Frank is being hurt by:

-Least interesting design
-Adult game SFF from ME and MK
-Fighting game SFF from Subby
-RPG SFF from Garrus
-People who are afraid of blood aren't voting for him
-People who are intimidated by the image of a real mane aren't voting for him
-People who like blue more than red aren't voting for him
-People who hate Frank West aren't voting for him
-People who like Garrus or Sub-Zero more aren't voting for him

THESE ARE JUST SOME OF THE MANY REASONS WHY FRANK ISN'T PREFORMING LIKE A NOBLE NINE-BREAKER
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#254 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/16/2013 11:01:14 PM | message detail
Since that KOS-MOS match, people are still throwing Project X Zone around as if it means anything at all.
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#255 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/16/2013 11:13:54 PM | message detail
For me, the most interesting aspect of this contest thus far is trying to predict which third place characters will perform respectably (ie: in accordance with a reasonable 1v1 percentage against the two stronger characters) and which will get abandoned by voters. I've gotten it wrong quite a few times already.
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#256 | Axl_Rose_85 | Posted 7/16/2013 11:31:22 PM | message detail
So far...

- Overestimated Waluigi and underestimated Raiden. -1 Point
- Thought Phoenix Wright couldn't win jack, and even more so with a FE/Smash Bros character in the mix. Apparently I was dead wrong. -1 Point
- Nobody has played Shin Megami Tensei
- Extremely worried about Morrigan > Edgeworth after the PW match
- Really interested in the Missingno, Tidus match and ? Block's strength
- MGS characters doing better than I expected
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#257 | Achromatic | Posted 7/16/2013 11:39:32 PM | message detail
0 lost points, I rock.

By the way totally never got the Garrus hype. That just downright confused me.
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#258 | Sorozone | Posted 7/16/2013 11:43:05 PM | message detail
I haven't gotten any negatives yet, have a few zeroes though. Sitting @ 66, will be 72 after this match.

Next division will probably f*** me sideways.
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#259 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/16/2013 11:47:51 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
0 lost points, I rock.

By the way totally never got the Garrus hype. That just downright confused me.


Garrus is one of only two characters on your team in every Mass Effect and he's totally cool. Kinda hoped he'd be close to Shepard.
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#260 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/16/2013 11:52:31 PM | message detail
There is no way Frank's as bad as he looks here.

I think there's a lot of credence to some characters just being abandoned in these multi polls. Probably hurts Frank even more since I imagine he would have more overlap with Subby/Garrus than a Nintendo or Square character.
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#261 | htaeD | Posted 7/16/2013 11:56:11 PM | message detail
only lost a point to the Draven rally *shakes fist*
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#262 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 11:57:07 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
WELL ACCORDING TO THE NEVER-FLAWED ZEN LOGIC:

Frank is being hurt by:

-Least interesting design
-Adult game SFF from ME and MK
-Fighting game SFF from Subby
-RPG SFF from Garrus
-People who are afraid of blood aren't voting for him
-People who are intimidated by the image of a real mane aren't voting for him
-People who like blue more than red aren't voting for him
-People who hate Frank West aren't voting for him
-People who like Garrus or Sub-Zero more aren't voting for him

THESE ARE JUST SOME OF THE MANY REASONS WHY FRANK ISN'T PREFORMING LIKE A NOBLE NINE-BREAKER


I was about to say that Frank West's games aren't RPGs, then I remembered Project X Zone.
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#263 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:54:10 AM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
Anyone who expected Garrus to be within 15% of Subby was just being silly.

This coming from one of the biggest ME fans around.


Apparently you're not a big enough one!

I respect Sub-Zero's strength as much as anyone's around here (which is especially apparent after seeing the board today), but if anyone other than Shepard had the chance to be a decent low midcarder (which this match projects), it's Garrus. Not sure why people were shy to pull the trigger with him being decent. He just got a bad draw. This performance makes me a little more upset that he couldn't have been in Wrex's match instead.

Yes, Mass Effect has an ensemble cast, but Garrus is literally there from nearly the beginning of EVERY game, which is different from Tali, who doesn't show up until past the midway point in 2 and 3. And BioWare usually stays in pretty good touch with their fans, so I assure you Garrus being so heavily involved was on purpose because they were aware that the fanbase generally liked him quite a bit.
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#264 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:56:04 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Hey Leon are we going to do another character NRT or a games NRT hoping SBAllen to do a games contest?


Honestly, if Bacon is going to keep the field at this size and if noms continue to be this low, I really don't see the point of continuing the NRT. It's ridiculously easy to have a successful independent rally nowadays, and we're rapidly running out of characters worth a crap to get the board behind aside from those who show up in new games.

Games is a bit different since there are a lot more strong games than strong characters, but again, if we have a 241 game Games Contest, I don't see the point in having an NRT.
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#265 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 3:17:56 AM | message detail
Oh right, yesterday's trend chart:

Time | Chrom | Boss | Heavy | Votes
0:05 | 37.46% | 46.58% | 15.96% | 307
1:00 | 32.12% | 45.40% | 22.47% | 4850
2:00 | 29.43% | 44.87% | 25.69% | 3873
3:00 | 30.64% | 45.33% | 24.03% | 3316
4:00 | 28.22% | 47.46% | 24.32% | 2952
5:00 | 29.85% | 45.90% | 24.25% | 2717
6:00 | 30.23% | 45.50% | 24.27% | 2600
7:00 | 29.78% | 45.16% | 25.05% | 2347
8:00 | 30.70% | 45.45% | 23.85% | 2176
9:00 | 27.24% | 46.47% | 26.30% | 2023
10:00 | 29.40% | 44.57% | 26.03% | 1925
11:00 | 29.02% | 46.85% | 24.14% | 1823
12:00 | 26.98% | 44.66% | 28.36% | 1601

Boss is pretty steady throughout the match. Chrom continues the FE trend of having his first hour be his best, and then he follows it up by having his last hour be his worst and losing it outright to Heavy.

X-Stats:

The Boss – 50.00%
Chrom – 39.50%
Heavy – 35.04%
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#266 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/17/2013 3:32:21 AM | message detail
Sprite round, huh?

Another point for the Kirby > Sephiroth upset train! And also for Pikachu > Sora, in terms of upsets I'm actually aiming for.
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#267 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 3:32:56 AM | message detail
#268 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 3:46:10 AM | message detail
Oh right, The Boss had a 52.99% prediction percentage.
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#269 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/17/2013 4:09:01 AM | message detail
Why the Boss had only half the brackets with her?Okay Chrom was the higher seed but still.Also we lost a 0 bracket to this match?Man!
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#270 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/17/2013 4:17:12 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Why the Boss had only half the brackets with her?Okay Chrom was the higher seed but still.Also we lost a 0 bracket to this match?Man!


People understimating her and/or overestimating Chrom for being the main Character of the last Fire Emblem?

Back to Frank's strenght, I, honestly, would not have known who was he if it wasn't for Project X Zone. I didn't even remember that Dead Rising existed. And DR3 does not look like a good game, that didn't help.

I still voted for subzero nevertheless, even though I do not like him. Better him than somebody who I don't know or a guy who I would not have mind to shoot in the face, I did that with Wrex on Mass Effect 1 (the only one that I played, did not enjoy the game really much) and I did not mind doing it.
#271 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/17/2013 4:29:30 AM | message detail
I voted for Frank because of Project X Zone myself.
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#272 | Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 7/17/2013 4:38:50 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Sprite round, huh?

Another point for the Kirby > Sephiroth upset train! And also for Pikachu > Sora, in terms of upsets I'm actually aiming for.


Sprite round is probably a positive for Sephiroth. Since Big Boss won't be taking any votes away.
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#273 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 4:39:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, sprite round is terrible news for anyone who has Big Boss > Sephiroth.
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#274 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:12:12 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero under 50% now.
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#275 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/17/2013 5:15:18 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, sprite round is terrible news for anyone who has Big Boss > Sephiroth.


Who took Big Boss > Sephiroth

>_>
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#276 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:17:40 AM | message detail
There's one guy here who keeps loudly proclaiming it

Of course, he also thought Frank West had a shot at 2nd here because of UMvC3, so yeah
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#277 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/17/2013 5:22:36 AM | message detail
What the... I thought he was just joking with that Big Boss > Sephiroth pick, gg then.
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#278 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2013 5:23:30 AM | message detail
Sigh. I give up. Toys out of the pram.
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#279 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:24:04 AM | message detail
#280 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2013 5:26:13 AM | message detail
On Garrus. I'm calling it. I can't make up for this amount of bad taste singlehandedly!
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#281 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:27:45 AM | message detail
#282 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 5:31:59 AM | message detail
Garrus looking more impressive now, I wonder how this will translate to Wrex or even Mordin should Epona flop.
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#283 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:34:24 AM | message detail
Epona would have to flop really hard for Mordin to win. Just not feelin' that one. I really think Garrus is going to be the only ME squadmate with decent strength. Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe Tali, but that's probably a long shot. We'll give it a shot next time though!

Wrex has an okay-ish chance just because Pit and Cecil aren't exactly hard to top, but I don't like his chances. He's only a squadmate in the first game, and he's not even mandatory to be in the 2nd and 3rd game at all.
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#284 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 5:39:05 AM | message detail
This might have been interesting it if it was a day match.
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#285 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 5:40:25 AM | message detail
Cecil is pretty strong, unless the Dissidia boost disappeared, but we won't know until later in the contest.
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#286 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2013 5:40:49 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
hate to break it to you but Sub-Zero's pretty awesome dude

almost considered voting for him


There are only I dunno 8 or 9 characters in the bracket that are acceptable alternatives to Garrus. Sub isn't one of them.
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#287 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:41:19 AM | message detail
Nah, Subby's too far ahead for that. Plus, I wouldn't expect a big day/night swing between the two anyway.

Garrus will probably end up a little behind Tidus 2010 in strength by the time this is said and done (assuming 2013 Subby = 2010 Subby, of course). If you're a Garrus fan, that's probably the best you could have realistically hoped for here.
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#288 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:42:07 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
There are only I dunno 8 or 9 characters in the bracket that are acceptable alternatives to Garrus. Sub isn't one of them.


Nah, there are quite a few. I mostly voted for Garrus because it's his first appearance.
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#289 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2013 5:46:18 AM | message detail
'Best I could hope for'? For me, only a Garrus victory was the "best outcome" here. This is awful, an almost Golden Sun > GTA:SA-level travesty. If Sub was yet another jrpg assclown it would be *the* worst.

And I tried, but I can only do so much from work.
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#290 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:47:23 AM | message detail
I said realistically.

Garrus winning this match was not realistic.
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#291 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/17/2013 5:48:35 AM | message detail
Well I mean, it's been 50-50 for the past 20 minutes.

If the day vote is closer in pattern to the morning vote I think he'd have a shot.

Sub would probably still win though
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#292 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:48:54 AM | message detail
also stop reverting back to old XIII when you don't like match results please

new XIII is better
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#293 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:51:06 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Well I mean, it's been 50-50 for the past 20 minutes.

If the day vote is closer in pattern to the morning vote I think he'd have a shot.

Sub would probably still win though


Garrus would probably do well with the day vote, but Subby would win the beginning and end of the match pretty handily. He probably does a bit better relative to Sub-Zero, percentage-wise, but yeah.
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#294 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 5:54:41 AM | message detail
Lets just wait and see how Sephiroth does first.

Also I have Subby > Garrus > Frank. +6 for me.
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#295 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 5:55:18 AM | message detail
Eh, I wouldn't take much from Sephiroth's first match one way or the other.
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#296 | vcharon | Posted 7/17/2013 5:57:34 AM | message detail
I'm happy to see Garrus might be able to finish within 10% here. That's great for him and decent enough material to push for other popular ME characters to get in (how in the world are both Wrex and Mordin in over Tali? Tali wasn't even in the database for some reason!). Like everyone I talk to has their party as Tali/Garrus and they're the only ones playable every game. I thought it was a no-brainer there were the most popular 2 characters. But Garrus looks good enough for me to want to see Tali.

Sub-Zero, as always, looks good enough to make me curious about non-Scorpion MK characters. Both are really good and even though I really wanted Garrus to advance when he got that great seed, it's hard to be mad at Sub-Zero for winning.
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#297 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/17/2013 5:58:18 AM | message detail
I am a terrible loser, which is the only way to be.

It's easy for you FF fans to sit in your ivory tower. The site's tastes are practically built around you. For a contest I care about and like so much, I have Snake and that's it. Every now and then, I get a little bit fed up with Bad Taste Zone. Thus, toys out of the pram.
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#298 | vcharon | Posted 7/17/2013 5:59:31 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
I am a terrible loser, which is the only way to be.

It's easy for you FF fans to sit in your ivory tower. The site's tastes are practically built around you. For a contest I care about and like so much, I have Snake and that's it. Every now and then, I get a little bit fed up with Bad Taste Zone. Thus, toys out of the pram.


I'm not convinced even a third of the FF characters in this bracket can beat Sub-Zero.
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#299 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 5:59:43 AM | message detail
Bowser should be able to break 60%+.
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#300 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 6:02:36 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
It's easy for you FF fans to sit in your ivory tower. The site's tastes are practically built around you.


Yeah, it's nice to see a character or game I love win every contest as opposed to seeing things I don't particularly care for win or steal the show every contest, like Zelda or Pokemon.

oh wait
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