Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1066

#151 | pjbasis | Posted 7/16/2013 3:02:25 PM | message detail
Edgeworth is gonna school 47
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#152 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 3:08:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
Rad Link 5 posted...
My division one expert picks were a small disaster (http://i.imgur.com/Ycbg17k.png), but I'm working on a perfect through division two. I'm lost on nearly all of the division three matches, though.

Morrigan > Agent 47 > Edgeworth?
Ness > CATS > Locke?
Elizabeth > Poison > Thrall?
Kirby > Terra > Peach?
Wheatley > Crash > Tommy?
I have f*** all idea what to do with Spyro, Clementine and Reyn.


I got:

Morrigan > Agent 47 > Edgeworth
Ness > Locke > CATS
Thrall > Poison > Elizabeth (Idk with 2 & 3)
Kirby > Terra > Peach
Wheatley > Crash > Vercetti (Idk with 2 & 3)
Reyn > Clementine > Spyro (might just bank here)

At 72 points (78 after this match), without banking or going in negative points... so far.
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#153 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:10:07 PM | message detail | (edited)
Achromatic posted...
I literally disagree with you on almost all of those.

Then offer your opinions! I already said I'm not sure about any of them! I'm lost and scared and confused and I need a night light!

charmander6000 posted...
In 2007 Agent 47 got 41.54% against Midna
In 2008 Edgeworth got 37.59% against Midna

A lot has happened since then though.

Edit: Wrong numbers for Edgeworth and Agent 47

Agent 47 has had a new, well-promoted game, while Edgeworth failed to even get his latest game localized, so I'd think they're trending in opposite directions. But what do I know? I had Juliet pulling first.

Dilated Chemist posted...
Garrus vs. Chrom
Sub Zero vs. The Boss
Frank West vs. Heavy

Sub-Zero > 45%? I think Garrus is gonna be way stronger than Chrom. And Frank West probably beats Heavy too. UMvC3 hype!!!

I don't follow your logic, but Sub-Zero slaughters The Boss, and stats say Heavy is a stronger than pre-UMvC3 Frank West.
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#154 | Sorozone | Posted 7/16/2013 3:10:35 PM | message detail
Oh.

I just realized I picked Locke over Ness....Hopefully it works out. >_>
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#155 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 3:11:06 PM | message detail
Rad Link 5 posted...
Achromatic posted...
I literally disagree with you on almost all of those.

Then offer your opinions! I already said I'm not sure about any of them! I'm lost and scared and confused and I need a night light!

charmander6000 posted...
In 2007 Agent 47 got 41.54% against Midna
In 2008 Edgeworth got 37.59% against Midna

A lot has happened since then though.

Edit: Wrong numbers for Edgeworth and Agent 47

Agent 47 has had a new, well-promoted game, while Edgeworth failed to even get his latest game localized, so I'd think they're trending in opposite directions. But what do I know? I had Juliet pulling first.

Dilated Chemist posted...
Garrus vs. Chrom
Sub Zero vs. The Boss
Frank West vs. Heavy

Sub-Zero > 45%? I think Garrus is gonna be way stronger than Chrom. And Frank West probably beats Heavy too. UMvC3 hype!!!

I don't follow your logic, but Sub-Zero slaughters The Boss, and stats say Heavy is a stronger than pre-UMvC3 Frank West.


You didn't answer my question, Sub-Zero > 45%?
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#156 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 3:11:56 PM | message detail
47's new game was a bit of a turd, at least from what I heard
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#157 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/16/2013 3:12:59 PM | message detail
The new Hitman was a good game, but a bad Hitman game.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#158 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 3:16:05 PM | message detail
It was a dumbed down hitman experience. The plot was dumb and it was all "press one button to awesome." Even when you turned off the new features it was still stripped down. You couldn't choose a weapon load out before the mission and 47 could hide entire sniper rifles and shotguns in his jacket. Not to mention half the missions didn't even have you kill anyone, it was a linear point a to point b affair most of the time, and when you did have a hit it was usually set up for you to kill them a lot easier and more scripted than the other games. Also there were glitches on glitches.

Man talking about how crappy that game is makes me want to take edgey.
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~Zen
#159 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:27:59 PM | message detail
Sub-zero is going to hang Garrus out to dry. In the last contest, the X-stats have 2010 Sub-Zero right about at the same level as 2010 Leon and above Alucard and Rikku.

I also think Morrigan > Edgeworth.
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Point Total: 16/16. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Sub-Zero Day: Bowser
#160 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:30:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
Dilated Chemist posted...
You didn't answer my question, Sub-Zero > 45%?

Edit: Oh you mean in his match.

Uh, I'll say no because MASS EFFEAR, but realistically he probably will.
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#161 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:30:38 PM | message detail
I think that Phoenix's performance shows only good things for Morrigan, what with MvC meaning something.
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#162 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 3:39:40 PM | message detail
So the majority of the brackets have picked 5 matches wrong, right?
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#163 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:47:15 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
So the majority of the brackets have picked 5 matches wrong, right?

By my count, only 5968 brackets have missed 5 or more matches.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#164 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 7/16/2013 3:48:39 PM | message detail
The top three scores for brackets, in order, are 11, 12, and 10.
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#165 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 3:49:43 PM | message detail
16! booooooom
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#166 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 3:55:55 PM | message detail
Is this match going to hit 30,000 votes?
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#167 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 4:15:56 PM | message detail
I think we're headed for about 32k.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#168 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/16/2013 4:16:28 PM | message detail
I can't be the only one who would plow The Boss, right?
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 12/14 pts | Expert Challenge: 31/84
NP: Mewtwo > Zero (999) > Chester
#169 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/16/2013 4:20:18 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
I can't be the only one who would plow The Boss, right?


I estimate the percentage of voters who would plow The Boss would be between 8% and 12% based on previous contests' plow-stats.
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#170 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/16/2013 4:32:35 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Is this match going to hit 30,000 votes?


It should definitely reach 30000 votes. But what I've noticed is how bad our day match vote totals are, compared to our night match vote totals.

Average night match vote totals - 27803 (excluding the Draven match)
Average day match vote totals - 33086

In Rivalry Rumble, day matches got 1.28 times more votes than night matches. In this contest, day matches are only getting 1.19 times more votes than night matches. There is a much smaller disparity in vote totals between night matches and day matches. I blame this disparity on the fact that we don't have an ASV for most of this contest, so you have more people than usual who are voting in the night matches.
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#171 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/16/2013 5:17:08 PM | message detail
Huh, just noticed you're in 1st place on the leaderboard Luster.

'grats.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 12/14 pts | Expert Challenge: 31/84
NP: Mewtwo > Zero (999) > Chester
#172 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 7:02:15 PM | message detail
I'm in 1st place too.
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#173 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/16/2013 7:31:39 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
I can't be the only one who would plow The Boss, right?


Glad to see I'm not the only one with a unique interest in women.
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#174 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 7:34:54 PM | message detail
I'd plow her.
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Pts: 16/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero & Bowser
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#175 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 7:36:05 PM | message detail
I'd plow her

I mean

she's a woman without major deformities
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~Zen
#176 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 7:39:53 PM | message detail
Match XVII: (4) Garrus Vakarian vs. (15) Sub-Zero vs. (24) Frank West

Previous Contest

Garrus Vakarian – N/A
N/A

Sub-Zero – 2010
53.86% against Tidus
59.06% against Roxas
32.69% against Samus Aran

Frank West – 2008
16.17% against Crono, Amaterasu and Kaim Argonar

Analysis

Too bad Garrus was not placed in a more debatable match. Sure some people are going for the upset, but most people feel Sub-Zero will be too strong. I think the side Mass Effect characters will generally flop to the board’s expectations due to the fanbase being fairly split to which ones they like, but if there was going to be a character with strength Garrus would be that character.

Sub-Zero should have no problem winning this match, even if Garrus has some strength he would have to be fairly close to Commander Shepard to cause the upset, something I do not see being possible. Sub-Zero has not had too much since 2010, but he is one of those characters whose strength has been entrenched due to all of the releases he has had over the past 2 decades so I do not see him being too much weaker than when we last saw him.

Frank West is becoming one of those weak characters that somehow keep returning to these contests. While he is the main character of Dead Rising 2: Off the Record I do not see him being more than what we saw back in 2008 and even if he was Garrus would have to flop badly for Frank to take second.

I feel Garrus will be more than fodder, but at the same time he will not be a huge powerhouse in this contest. Sub-Zero could break 50%, but I feel he will fall just short of the mark.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sub-Zero > Garrus Vakarian and Frank West

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sub-Zero – 47.83%, Garrus Vakarian – 33.22%, Frank West – 18.95%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#177 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Garrus Vakarian
33.33%
6 Votes

Sub-Zero
55.56%
10 Votes
Your Pick

Frank West
11.11%
2 Votes
Total Votes: 18
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POKEFEAR
#178 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Garrus Vakarian
30%
6 Votes

Sub-Zero
60%
12 Votes

Frank West
10%
2 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#179 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/16/2013 9:00:39 PM | message detail
#180 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:01:38 PM | message detail
That sure was a fast freeze.
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#181 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:01:43 PM | message detail
Nice start by Sub-Zero, nothing too surprising though
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#182 | Sorozone | Posted 7/16/2013 9:02:45 PM | message detail
Hehee fast freeze, Sub-Zero.
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#183 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/16/2013 9:02:46 PM | message detail
#184 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/16/2013 9:03:01 PM | message detail
I don't really understand how Garrus can be this weak.. He's the biggest fan favorite from one of the biggest new series of this gen. Is he really being clobbered by Sub Zero?
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#185 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 9:03:33 PM | message detail
#186 | vcharon | Posted 7/16/2013 9:03:48 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero has been an upper midcarder for years now.
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#187 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/16/2013 9:03:55 PM | message detail
Wait that's Garrus? For some reason I thought he was a FF7 dude.
#188 | superange128 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:03:59 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
I don't really understand how Garrus can be this weak.. He's the biggest fan favorite from one of the biggest new series of this gen. Is he really being clobbered by Sub Zero?


Sub-Zero's is one of the biggest fan favorite classic fighting game characters
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#189 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
Sub-Zero probably has the board vote

Also I didn't have much faith in the Mass Effect characters.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#190 | Sorozone | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, this board really gives a disservice to how strong Sub-Zero actually is.
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#191 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:34 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero's legit. Beat up on Tidus and avoided doubling by a super-strong Samus despite a pic disadvantage. Him and Scorpion gave X/Zero a scare in the Rivalry Rumble too.
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#192 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:44 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero is fighting game and adult game SFFing Frank West! He's stronger than this! I know it!
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#193 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:52 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
I don't really understand how Garrus can be this weak.. He's the biggest fan favorite from one of the biggest new series of this gen. Is he really being clobbered by Sub Zero?


Sub-Zero is freakin' legit and he would bust a ton of brackets if placed against a Cid or Aerith. And there was no chance Garrus was gonna beat Shepard (see Crono/Magus, Mario/Luigi, etc.), and Subby would either beat Shepard or be super close to him, I forget which.
#194 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:04:58 PM | message detail
Wait, he did get doubled. Got 32% though.
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#195 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/16/2013 9:06:23 PM | message detail
I didn't expect Garrus to win or anything, but I just thought it would be closer than this.. like 55-45 Subby or something. Oh well, theres always the chance ME could just have a terrible board vote.
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#196 | vcharon | Posted 7/16/2013 9:06:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, wow. That's that.
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#197 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:06:44 PM | message detail
Poor Frank West, hope he'll go up after the board vote.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#198 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/16/2013 9:07:02 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Wait, he did get doubled. Got 32% though.


Yeah, and there ain't not shame in being doubled by super-close-to-Cloud Samus. Subby is 'EXCELLENT. EXCELLENT'.
#199 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/16/2013 9:07:28 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
15------342--------79.53
14------1077------67.50
13------2003------58.96
12------2906------55.78
11------2958------51.39
10------2417------48.78
9--------1625------44.86
8--------939--------44.62
7--------472--------47.03
6--------278--------46.40
5--------109--------41.28
4--------54----------42.59
3--------26----------34.62
2--------27----------14.81
1--------6------------33.33
0--------15----------6.67

The perfects did really well and the prediction percentage falls quickly from there. The -1s still did alright, though. This match also takes out another 0 bracket.

11 people fell off the Top 49. Former second place 0X0_Ghost_0X0, Accel_R8, Acro_, AdrianMagicent, Alexman_2point0, almightyblue, arelian, balthier123123, Biscuit__, Bumlazydude and canadiancatcher did not have The Boss winning.
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#200 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/16/2013 9:07:44 PM | message detail
Boring match. 55-32-13. Next.
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