Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1066

#451 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 1:57:06 PM | message detail
Sephiroth almost lost Missingno and lost to Snake.

Cloud/Sephiroth lost to Pokemon Trainer Red/Blue.

Something crazy is going to happen to FFVII this contest.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#452 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/17/2013 1:57:51 PM | message detail
Something crazy like...it'll win!!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#453 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 1:58:38 PM | message detail
Sephiroth beat Missingno despite the anti-voting, and Cloud beat two really strong characters despite the anti-voting and surpassed his performance on Link from 2006.

It's pretty easy to turn it around the other way. I don't know why you keep trying to turn my argument into "FFVII isn't weaker" in your responses! FFVII isn't invincible. But they do look better against better characters. That's all I'm saying, and the evidence honestly bears that out.
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#454 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 2:00:44 PM | message detail
Nintendo power.

Konami power.

HIDEO
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#455 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:02:41 PM | message detail | (edited)
And just because FFVII doesn't blow things out like it used to or because now it struggles against things it used to beat easily doesn't mean "FFVII does better against better characters" isn't true. I'm not talking in the context of its grand history. I'm talking within the context of THAT contest, and it's true.
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#456 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 2:03:16 PM | message detail
Surpassing 2006 Link is one thing, but you can't turn around those other results. Sephiroth and Cloud haven't been threatened by a non-Link character in 1 v 1 since 2002. Sephiroth beating Missingno and Cloud beating Snake/Samus without much room to spare isn't good when they shouldn't have even been threatened to begin with. They weakened.

And everyone knows that FF7 gets better against better competition, that doesn't mean you give them free passes for performances that are still awful even when stuff like anti-votes are taken into account.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#457 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/17/2013 2:03:36 PM | message detail
I wouldn't lump everything to anti-voting, Vincent hasn't been relevant for the past 7 years, could be a drop in intrinsic strength. The same could be said for the rest of the FF7 and CT crew.
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Zinsanity of the Helix Board
#458 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:05:28 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
And everyone knows that FF7 gets better against better competition, that doesn't mean you give them free passes for performances that are still awful even when stuff like anti-votes are taken into account.


Why not?

If they step up when it matters, those performances against weaker competition don't matter. If Vincent wins in round 3, nobody will care about this round 1 match anymore.
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#459 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 2:06:48 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VII should be remade and played on the PS4.
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#460 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 2:08:04 PM | message detail
Because nothing about his Round 1 performance indicates that he's going to win Round 3? He still could, but you basically have to go on blind faith.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:09:12 PM | message detail
I'm not picking him!

But like I said, if Vincent wins, all this chatter about him goes away, so he WILL get a pass on that performance.

Just like how Link will get a pass on his weird round 1 performance if he wins the contest.
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http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png
#462 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/17/2013 2:09:29 PM | message detail
Vincent was never going to win against Sonic in a 1v1. The only reson I picked Vincent in that match is because Bowser and Sonic basically have the same fanbase. He can be weaker than ever and still sneak through.
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Bracket score: 16 / Expert score: 78
#463 | ZFS | Posted 7/17/2013 2:10:27 PM | message detail
I think FFVII has bigger problems than just anti-votes these days. Not that any of the current performances are the best indicators, but it losing a step like CT wouldn't be strange or unheard of. It happens the longer you go without a refresh.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#464 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/17/2013 2:11:05 PM | message detail
Well, Sonic has gotten plenty of new games since 2006, while Vincent...
#465 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:13:02 PM | message detail
so why do people anti vote FFVII so much anyway? Zelda keeps on winning but FFVII gets the hate? oO

I think in the mind of the average voter they have characters that they would love to win (favourites) and characters that they accept are going to win (Link, Mario etc.)

FFVII is not among the "acceptable" choices so people get jealous that they perform so well over their favourites.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#466 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 2:13:37 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
It may seem like a lame argument, but it's absolutely true, at least nowadays. You can bring up what FFVII did in the past, but this is a different FFVII now. Yes, it's weaker, but that's mostly because the anti-voting is worse than ever, and that shows up way more against fodder than it does against strong characters. Cloud looked atrocious against Ridley in 2010, but it didn't stop him from scoring better against Link in 2010 than he did in 2006.


Cloud's match against Link was literally the only one the whole contest where he looked good. He performed pathetically the rest of the contest, and only did well against Link due to LAW anti-votes.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#467 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:18:50 PM | message detail
#468 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:20:08 PM | message detail
As a person with Vincent should the match happen tomorrow I would take Sonic, but he has one more round to get his stuff together before I start worrying. As Leon said anti-votes hurt more against weaker characters. Might be hand waving, but we've seen this stuff before.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 14/16 Today's Picks: Sub-Zero and Bowser
#469 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 2:20:19 PM | message detail
White_Tiger posted...
so why do people anti vote FFVII so much anyway? Zelda keeps on winning but FFVII gets the hate? oO

and maybe this is because we have never seen 3-way matches before, I think Vincent would have done a lot better against KOS-MOS if it was 1vs1


Zelda is pretty much a sacred cow on most of the Internet. The vast majority of Nintendo is. I guess it's due to standing out from current gaming trends like REAL IS BROWN and ONLINE MULTIPLAYER and TOO MANY SHOOTERS and YEARLY RELEASE FATIGUE, but I'm not sure. On the other hand, Final Fantasy as a whole is probably seen as generic anime crap by a sizable portion of the Internet (that seems true of Final Fantasy XIII, but it's NOT true of VI or VII at least, and from the looks of it it seems that VIII, IX, and X are safe as well).

Am I the only one who feels that pre-XIII Final Fantasies had a sizable amount of Western appeal, or at least considerably more than FFXIII?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#470 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 2:23:37 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
You're wrong, as usual.


Thinking about it, I do agree at least somewhat with where you're coming from, at least in so far as "FFVII looks worst against fodder. This does not however give the game's characters a total free pass - for instance, Cloud got 78% on Ryu in R4 of 2007 and 71% on him the previous round when Auron was holding him back. Cloud went down to 66% on 2010.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#471 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/17/2013 2:28:08 PM | message detail
78% on Ryu would imply Ryu was fodderline, so I doubt that means anything other than that characters in last tend to get abandoned!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#472 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:31:48 PM | message detail
I don't support Vincent>Mewtwo but I agree this is kind of debateable
But Vincent>Sonic
What?
#473 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 2:34:30 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Except not really. FF7 anti-votes are prominent against Nintendo. Vincent still obliterated Guybrush and Cloud still obliterated Chris and Ryu last year. I really can't see Vincent getting a ton of anti-votes over another RPG character.

And if you're calling KOS-MOS fodder, then Vincent is really in trouble, because he couldn't break 60% against fodder.


My theory there is that colorful, non-serious characters overperform against darker/more mature/more serious characters. We saw Tails do it against Kratos, for one thing, and I just get the feeling that characters like Ridley, Captain Falcon, and Samus (especially if a certain black sheep of the series is thrown out of the equation) are tailor-made for overperforming against Cloud.

Heck, just look at the Cloud/Ridley match pic:

http://images.wikia.com/board8/images/f/fa/Cb8-41.jpg

This pic, at least to me, practically begs for Ridley to get votes! Oh and even better:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EPCbCZVe7xg/T5qT5IC4XlI/AAAAAAAAAb0/N8pnquJnUjU/s640/cloud_then_and_now.png

Lol Cloud, what happened to you?

Honestly, Final Fantasy VII, to me, just feels like an SNES RPG fit to take advantage of the PS1's capabilities, and not something that should have become such an obsession by Square Enix - and the worst part is that it wasn't even an obsession initially, or at least not to the same extent. The game itself deserves all the praise it gets IMO, but it has become such a horrible monster since then. Seeing Cloud get Advent Children and Dissidia pics almost always rubs me the wrong way.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#474 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/17/2013 2:35:47 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
78% on Ryu would imply Ryu was fodderline, so I doubt that means anything other than that characters in last tend to get abandoned!


I dunno, to me it made sense that Cloud's percent on Ryu would explode once he became the only FF rep, although yeah there's only so much Auron could have hurt him in that poll I guess.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#475 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/17/2013 2:36:03 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
16------272--------80.15
15------797--------72.40
14------1531------66.30
13------2443------59.72
12------2805------57.36
11------2617------56.21
10------1967------56.13
9--------1315------54.75
8--------742--------54.31
7--------379--------51.72
6--------194--------48.45
5--------87----------44.83
4--------40----------35.00
3--------21----------28.57
2--------25----------8.00
1--------5------------40.00
0--------14----------0.00

A pretty easy match for thoe near the top but not as much for those in the middle. The perfects clear 80% but the prediction percentage falls quickly from there and the -3s are even below 60. All the 0 brackets the the match "right".

6 people fell off the Top 49. abiggeebabigee, AlmightyDrizzle, Als52, Azp2k32, Burholt999 and Cruizer3000 did not have Sub-Zero winning the match.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#476 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:37:24 PM | message detail
ya go my perfect (zero) bracket
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Character Battle IX: 15/17 points, Next matches: Bowser, Sephiroth
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#477 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 2:38:36 PM | message detail
Cloud and Sephiroth (mainly Seph) fell enough in 2010 that upsets which were completely unreasonable in 2004-2008 were suddenly in play. That, and the prospect of three additional years of FFVII decline, is the basis for my Kirby > Sephiroth upset. We'll see how it goes.
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#478 | ZFS | Posted 7/17/2013 2:42:41 PM | message detail
Alright there's dropping and then there's no longer being relevant. Kirby beating Sephiroth is a bad choice!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#479 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:43:55 PM | message detail
Sprite round probably doesn't help Kirby's chances, honestly, because Big Boss being there with an ugly MG1 sprite means he's going to get a bad percentage. Kirby needs Big Boss not to suck to have any chance of beating Seph.
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#480 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/17/2013 2:44:54 PM | message detail
Go Big Boss!
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Pts: 18/18 Today's Picks: Sephiroth & Morrigan
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#481 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 2:45:29 PM | message detail
It's a "make or break" type of choice and I think there are enough intangibles and unknowns to make it a decent enough upset. Very surprised that junglebob and I are the only two people who pulled the trigger on that one when Snake > Cloud is the popular choice in a match that features Mario. Did everyone forget that without Smash and Nintendo, Snake would still be bottom-rung on the Noble 9?
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#482 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 2:45:54 PM | message detail
I think sprite round might help FF7, if anything. Seeing those lego PS1 models is probably nostalgic.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#483 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:46:48 PM | message detail
I think there are more than enough tangibles and knowns to make it a bad choice!

And Snake hasn't really shown any evidence of having Smash support stolen from him when he goes up against a Nintendo character, except maybe against Samus in 2006, and that's not even conclusive.
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#484 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 2:46:58 PM | message detail
It is impossible for Snake, Cloud, and Mario to be in the same match this year, yo.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#485 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:47:09 PM | message detail
So what was the prediction for Sub Zero?Around 60%?
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#486 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 2:47:48 PM | message detail
Wait my bad, that match doesn't feature Mario. Sorry, I'm completely off base about that one.
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#487 | ZFS | Posted 7/17/2013 2:48:04 PM | message detail
Also Luigi is beating Big Boss!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#488 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:48:32 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So what was the prediction for Sub Zero?Around 60%?


58.54%
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#489 | Sorozone | Posted 7/17/2013 2:48:39 PM | message detail
People are pulling the Snake > Cloud thing because I imagine most have Sora in that match as well.
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#490 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/17/2013 2:50:05 PM | message detail
It's Sora or Crono in that match. Either one is bad for Cloud.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#491 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:50:32 PM | message detail
Pikachu is winning his division and leeching Snake. Book it.
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#492 | ZFS | Posted 7/17/2013 2:51:02 PM | message detail
I have Snake > Cloud, but Crono instead of Sora.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#493 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:51:04 PM | message detail
I don't think Crono's disproportionately bad for Cloud. We've never really seen evidence of FFVII/CT overlap. Cloud can win if Crono's there.

If Sora's there, yeah, he's got no shot.
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#494 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 2:53:52 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Pikachu is winning his division and leeching Snake. Book it.


That's what I've got! I think Pikachu needs a lot of luck though, because Fox/Blue kill the rat's chances. He needs Nathan Drake in there.
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#495 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/17/2013 2:54:32 PM | message detail
Snake already beat Sephiroth
If FFVII is weaker now then I see no reason he can't beat Cloud...1vs1
#496 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 2:54:55 PM | message detail
are you picking Pokemon to win anything even remotely debatable this year or something
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#497 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 2:58:40 PM | message detail
I think I have Pokemon winning every match that's been debated, yes. In Pikachu's case, however, it's less about his own strength than it is about the #3 entrant. My bracket has Drake (Sora/Pikachu/Drake) so as the only Nintendo character and a big standout, Pikachu should easily win that. If Fox or Blue is in Drake's place, Sora is obviously advancing and my chances are sunk.
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#498 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/17/2013 3:00:37 PM | message detail
Drake will stand out more in that match than Pikachu will. Pikachu and Sora are both cartoony and Drake is a realistic looking dude.
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#499 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 3:03:54 PM | message detail
Eh, it's Nintendo/Sony/Sony, and the two Sony guys are both realistic human characters vs an animal. Enough for me! The tough part is Drake; he's gotta get through a real hurdle in R2, and I think he needs both Mr. GW AND Blue in there to make it. Fox will SFF GW into the negatives and can probably hurdle past Drake despite the Nintendo LFF. Blue... I don't think will have that power.
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#500 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/17/2013 3:04:11 PM | message detail
play the legend of zelda: ocarina of time you guys
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
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